Vegas shutting down again rumor
Quote: LuckyPhowQuote: WizardIt happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.
If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.
Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?
Occam's razor.
Personally, I don't understand this discussion about the report of a rare event by one member. Whether or not the event happened as reported, individuals can assess for themselves. Individual assessments probably include both qualitative (is it believable?) and quantitative (is it unlikely?) aspects. A person can believe the event true as reported, or not. However much these personal assessments pile up, imho they change nothing. No one except Alan knows the veracity of his claim.
But, Wiz, doesn't your comment confirm that we should expect to see any of those dice-roll sequences at any time. once, with equal likelihood? Don't we all agree that Alan's unlikely event is statistically possible? Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?
(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)
Not a single word of report on the media about those 18 yos in this age and era of instant information about anything and everything where every news worthy event and its (fake) brother are all over the net gives you your answer. Didn't ever happen. Maybe it was 8 yos and Alan misheard it while coming back from the mensroom. Maybe he dreamed about it and believed it to be truth. Who knows.
One thing is for certain - it didn't happen, or it would've been all over the internet and well known as a fact.
Quote: rawtuffQuote: LuckyPhowQuote: WizardIt happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.
If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.
Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?
Occam's razor.
Personally, I don't understand this discussion about the report of a rare event by one member. Whether or not the event happened as reported, individuals can assess for themselves. Individual assessments probably include both qualitative (is it believable?) and quantitative (is it unlikely?) aspects. A person can believe the event true as reported, or not. However much these personal assessments pile up, imho they change nothing. No one except Alan knows the veracity of his claim.
But, Wiz, doesn't your comment confirm that we should expect to see any of those dice-roll sequences at any time. once, with equal likelihood? Don't we all agree that Alan's unlikely event is statistically possible? Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?
(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)
Not a single word of report on the media about those 18 yos in this age and era of instant information about anything and everything where every news worthy event and its (fake) brother are all over the net gives you your answer. Didn't ever happen. Maybe it was 8 yos and Alan misheard it while coming back from the mensroom. Maybe he dreamed about it and believed it to be truth. Who knows.
One thing is for certain - it didn't happen, or it would've been all over the internet and well known as a fact.
I got the impression this happened a long time ago.
More than a decade, correct Alan?
Two decades ago?
1999 was a different age for instant information as the turn of the century is for horse and buggies
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/us/politics/blood-plasma-covid-19.html
Blood plasma as covid cure is out as of now.
Quote: LuckyPhowCan't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?
(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)
I didnt bring it up this time around. And I havent brought it up over the past several years. Others do.
In this latest round I was falsely accused of rolling the 18 yos in a row myself. That's what triggered this round.
Years ago I was happy to let it go because I had no proof. I still have no proof. And frankly if I did have proof it still wouldn't make the 6 o'clock news.
Quote: darkoz
More than a decade, correct Alan?
Two decades ago?
1999 was a different age for instant information as the turn of the century is for horse and buggies
No.
Quote: darkozAnyway back to the pandemic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/us/politics/blood-plasma-covid-19.html
Blood plasma as covid cure is out as of now.
Blood plasma out as mentioned.
Roche's drug Tocizilumab now out as well
https://european-biotechnology.com/up-to-date/latest-news/news/roches-il-6-receptor-blocker-fails-in-phase-iii.html
Sanofi Kevzara failed as well
Regeneron Sarilumab both out!
https://www.docwirenews.com/docwire-pick/rheumatology-picks/sarilumab-regeneron-and-sanofis-arthritis-drug-flops-in-critically-ill-covid-19-patients/
(Y'all know where this is going right?)
Quote: rawtuffQuote: LuckyPhowQuote: WizardIt happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.
If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.
Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?
Occam's razor.
Personally, I don't understand this discussion about the report of a rare event by one member. Whether or not the event happened as reported, individuals can assess for themselves. Individual assessments probably include both qualitative (is it believable?) and quantitative (is it unlikely?) aspects. A person can believe the event true as reported, or not. However much these personal assessments pile up, imho they change nothing. No one except Alan knows the veracity of his claim.
But, Wiz, doesn't your comment confirm that we should expect to see any of those dice-roll sequences at any time. once, with equal likelihood? Don't we all agree that Alan's unlikely event is statistically possible? Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?
(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)
Not a single word of report on the media about those 18 yos in this age and era of instant information about anything and everything where every news worthy event and its (fake) brother are all over the net gives you your answer. Didn't ever happen. Maybe it was 8 yos and Alan misheard it while coming back from the mensroom. Maybe he dreamed about it and believed it to be truth. Who knows.
One thing is for certain - it didn't happen, or it would've been all over the internet and well known as a fact.
I went through this same level of criticism and personal attacks years ago. And for the record it was about five years ago... but I don't remember and I'm not going to look it up.
If I had thought 18 yos in a row was a big deal and NEWSWORTHY then I could have pitched the story to CBS and CNN. After all, I was employed by CBS and we had a working relationship with CNN.
18 yos in a row was not a bonafide news story then and it's not a bonafide news story now.
Had I picked up the phone and called my bosses and told them some kid just threw 18 yos in a row at Caesars Palace they'd say to me "what's a yo?" And the conversation would go downhill from there.
"Yo, Adrienne".
It was like 18 times!
Quote: AlanMendelsonI went through this same level of criticism and personal attacks years ago.
Not to take anything from you, but "personal attacks"? Need to get over yourself.
If I were to claim i witnessed lightning strike 4 times in a row on the same spot I would've questioned my memories/experience and looked for other confirmations before believing it.
18 yos in a row 5 years back would've made the news sites on the internet, not a shred of doubt about that.
And btw, I remember very well the discussion from "years back", was a participant there. Same old sh.. stuff.
Quote: rawtuffNot to take anything from you, but "personal attacks"? Need to get over yourself.
If I were to claim i witnessed lightning strike 4 times in a row on the same spot I would've questioned my memories/experience and looked for other confirmations before believing it.
18 yos in a row 5 years back would've made the news sites on the internet, not a shred of doubt about that.
What's your horse in this race? What is your purpose in continuing this?
By the way, Google how often lightning strikes the same place such as the Empire State Building.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat's your horse in this race? What is your purpose in continuing this?
Truth thirst. A natural drive to all human beings.
Quote: AlanMendelson
By the way, Google how often lightning strikes the same place such as the Empire State Building.
What?
In a row. Means one after the other uninterrupted in a short period of time. Reading comprehension.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat's your horse in this race? What is your purpose in continuing this?
A question you should ask yourself.
It didn't happen. Get over it.
2 1
4 3
2 5
6 5
3 5
5 2
3 6
2 3
1 5
3 6
1 4
1 3
3 6
2 5
2 2
5 4
6 2
5 2
I think I must be mistaken though. That sequence is twice as unlikely as 18 yos in a row.
Quote: unJonThis yo conversation is boring. To kill some time I went to the craps table to see if I could witness a very unlikely event. I saw the following rolls:
2 1
4 3
2 5
6 5
3 5
5 2
3 6
2 3
1 5
3 6
1 4
1 3
3 6
2 5
2 2
5 4
6 2
5 2
I think I must be mistaken though. That sequence is twice as unlikely as 18 yos in a row.
We are humans. Humans look for/recognize/remember only very symmetrical/specific (in our minds) streaks. Thus, the recognizable streaks that will be remembered are handful out of sextillions. You are aware of that, right?
This 18 yos streak would've made news on the net. There is nothing in the records.
Occam's razor.
If I can get a 60 roll turn going and get 20 yos that I bet on, I could turn my $150 buy-in into $1500, starting with $1 bets and going up to $10 bets.
Quote: rawtuffWe are humans. Humans look for/recognize/remember only very symmetrical/specific (in our minds) streaks. Thus, the recognizable streaks that will be remembered are handful out of sextillions. You are aware of that, right?
This 18 yos streak would've made news on the net. There is nothing in the records.
Occam's razor.
I can just see the story- reporters set up outside the casino telling the world someone just hit 18yo's. What a compelling human interest story. I'm sure it would have been picked up nationally, maybe been international. Maybe the would bring in a guest statistician to explain how rare it was.
I've heard several stories of people turning $100 into a $1,000,000, and was in AC when Don Johnson was taking two casinos for millions, yet neither got any press while it was happening.
Everyone and his dog are reporters now. Every blogger, every facebooker, every twiterer. Everyone with an internet connection device.
There is a record for longest streaks of almost everything, including craps streaks of all kinds on numerous and numerous sites.
Nothing comes out for that 18 in a row yos streak, an event so rare that the number of grains of sand on the entire planet isn't even close to describing the odds against (you need the sand from six THOUSAND more planets like the earth to represent the odds of it happening) .
Yeah, right.
Quote: rawtuffWe are humans. Humans look for/recognize/remember only very symmetrical/specific (in our minds) streaks. Thus, the recognizable streaks that will be remembered are handful out of sextillions. You are aware of that, right?
This 18 yos streak would've made news on the net. There is nothing in the records.
Occam's razor.
Not sure if serious . . .
Quote: AlanMendelsonI have to ask, how is there any mathematical advantage in craps? My understanding is that every bet is a negative expectation bet -- even the "odds" bets because they are linked to the flat bet.
And even if you could bet the "odds" independently of the flat bet, the "odds" have no house advantage but also no player advantage.
The only time I could see a player having a mathematical advantage at craps is when they have actual free bets.
Red Rock used to give players a free table game bet each week as part of their promotions. I used to get one free $75 table game bet. It was an even money free bet only. I think that's the only time I had an advantage and it was only on that one bet.
You are correct, this isn't the Fantasyland Adventures Axel Wolf where I claim I/one can beat the house advantage consistently every time I/they visit a casino and I never lose at anything, you're not going to beat the game itself if it has a built-in house advantage. Obviously, you might get lucky and have a winning streak.
With that being said, I have three words for you.... Promotions, promotions, promotions. I've been involved with craps plays that were worth thousands of dollars an hour with very little risk. Of course, that's not counting travel time or any possible Hoops you have to jump through. I basically talking about during the time of play.
I would estimate there's about three places in the United States right now where you could have an advantage via casino promotions that's worth at least $100 an hour. Knowing what to look for and Finding the locations is a hard part.
That wasn't all that unusual of an event given the amount of money he was betting. People win and lose Millions all the time. No one ever has or will ever Witness or roll 18 yo's in a row legitimately.Quote: billryanI can just see the story- reporters set up outside the casino telling the world someone just hit 18yo's. What a compelling human interest story. I'm sure it would have been picked up nationally, maybe been international. Maybe the would bring in a guest statistician to explain how rare it was.
I've heard several stories of people turning $100 into a $1,000,000, and was in AC when Don Johnson was taking two casinos for millions, yet neither got any press while it was happening.
That's pretty odd in and of itself. How do we know there were 18 in a row, who was keeping count? You're telling me that they're all sitting there counting down number 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 and yet not one person is like... oh...hmm perhaps I should put a dollar on it. Apparently they were all very discipline gamblers.
Quote: AxelWolfYou guys need not to forget, according to Alan, during this 18 yo's in a row phenomenon not a single person bet one time on it.
Correct. Who would ever imagine that an 11 would be rolled again... and again. So the three of us (including the shooter) at the table stood there hoping the shooter would make the pass or roll a box number where there was a bet.
Unfortunately, even with your interesting job and award-winning achievements your legacy will always be 18 Yo's in a row in the gaming community and forums. 😢Quote: AlanMendelsonCorrect. Who would ever imagine that an 11 would be rolled again... and again. So the three of us (including the shooter) at the table stood there hoping the shooter would make the pass or roll a box number where there was a bet.
Quote: AxelWolfUnfortunately, even with your interesting job and award-winning achievements your legacy will always be 18 Yo's in a row in the gaming community and forums. 😢
Absolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.
How lucky that makes me.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAbsolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.
Unfortunately the same can't be said for you.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAbsolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.
Unfortunately the same can't be said for you.
Quote: sabreUnfortunately the same can't be said for you.
Arthur Conan Doyle would have been torn to pieces on this forum
Quote: darkozArthur Conan Doyle would have been torn to pieces on this forum
I guess 18yos and 2 slices of bread gets you a baloney sandwich around here.
(Arthur Conan Doyle created a legendary character in fiction, but as a person, was prone to believing in table tipping, spirit talking, psychic frauds)
Quote: AlanMendelsonCorrect. Who would ever imagine that an 11 would be rolled again... and again. So the three of us (including the shooter) at the table stood there hoping the shooter would make the pass or roll a box number where there was a bet.
I would have made at least $180. I bet $10 on the come every roll. In rare occasions when I am winning, I do sometimes go crazy and bump my bet. Likely by 7th or 8th yo I'm up to $15. And by 12th up to $20. So maybe I take $250 from that roll. I would start betting the yo on the 19th roll for sure....
I notice repeats easily. If you roll 3 tens in a row I can assure you I'm yapping about it as it is happening. (I'm getting paid "off and on").
I'd have been making a big whoop-ass by the 4th yo.
Question for those who have a better idea about the industry than I do.
Is it possible that there is a single casino/hotel (to exclude a casino which is a gas station) that is making a profit now in Las Vegas? With the restrictions on number of slots, number of tables, number of players per table, number of hotel rooms they can book, number of people who can eat in a restaurant, clubs closed, shows dark, obviously revenue is WAY down. Plus added expenses of COVID-19 needs... free sanitizer, paid temperature takers, added cleaning staff, lawyers, masks, .....
I think every major casino must still be losing money today. Of course it is possibly less than being shuttered, but still there is no business that stays in business to lose money.
During the shutdown MGM said they needed 50% occupancy just to break even. With a 50% limit on occupancy now, the latest figures show an actual occupancy rate of 37%.
But I'm sure the losses are not severe. They're staying open in anticipation that things will get better.
Yesterday Boyd told the city of Henderson that their casino there will remain closed. The notification preserved their gaming license for another year.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAbsolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.
How lucky that makes me.
It does!
One way or another, your account has generated literal years of related conversation! I'd say that counts for something.
Quote: ChumpChangeOh, 18 yos on the come-out? If I was starting my betting progression at $60 on the PL and the table max was $2000, I'd make about $15K out of it.
Sorry. The point was established. 18 come out yos and we all would have won a ton of money.
I don't think the Dottys/JPJ are losing money.Quote: SOOPOOOK... back to "Vegas shutting down again".
Question for those who have a better idea about the industry than I do.
Is it possible that there is a single casino/hotel (to exclude a casino which is a gas station) that is making a profit now in Las Vegas? With the restrictions on number of slots, number of tables, number of players per table, number of hotel rooms they can book, number of people who can eat in a restaurant, clubs closed, shows dark, obviously revenue is WAY down. Plus added expenses of COVID-19 needs... free sanitizer, paid temperature takers, added cleaning staff, lawyers, masks, .....
I think every major casino must still be losing money today. Of course it is possibly less than being shuttered, but still there is no business that stays in business to lose money.
Quote: AxelWolfI don't think the Dottys/JPJ are losing money.
I agree, but I don't think anyone really considers those casinos.
they always have low overhead costsQuote: rxwineYeah, I think I’d rather be running a dump with old slots, than a mega casino with tons of overhead costs right now.
Quote: SOOPOOOK... back to "Vegas shutting down again".
Question for those who have a better idea about the industry than I do.
Is it possible that there is a single casino/hotel (to exclude a casino which is a gas station) that is making a profit now in Las Vegas? With the restrictions on number of slots, number of tables, number of players per table, number of hotel rooms they can book, number of people who can eat in a restaurant, clubs closed, shows dark, obviously revenue is WAY down. Plus added expenses of COVID-19 needs... free sanitizer, paid temperature takers, added cleaning staff, lawyers, masks, .....
I think every major casino must still be losing money today. Of course it is possibly less than being shuttered, but still there is no business that stays in business to lose money.
If they are open...people have jobs and aren’t on unemployment (furlough) or worse, as in the case of 4 Station properties....fired.
There’s no easy answers. I’m not sure how the financials are working right now on a corporate level (treading water?)....minor losses? Big losses each week?
Only the casinos know....and they disclose that info like they disclose slot holds or the details on “random contests”....which means no one knows except them.
I’m all for asking and knowing how locals operators are actually doing since opening. None I know have given out that info. Public companies will report earnings....but that’s not a day to day accounting of how they are faring right now.
August 31 is the end date for MANY employees at MGM corporate. They are no longer furloughed as of that date. They are fired, which means all of them will have to go on Cobra at an extra $600-$1,000/month out of pocket. It’s going to get worse before better for Vegas.
By and large the small fry and dumps don't make it, or keep changing hands until they close.
It's like the difference between buying crappy property in bad neighborhoods at a discount, or paying market top dollar for oceanfront. Which goes up more over time?
Quote: MDawgLike the Key Largo? That was someone's dream too.
By and large the small fry and dumps don't make it, or keep changing hands until they close.
It's like the difference between buying crappy property in bad neighborhoods at a discount, or paying market top dollar for oceanfront. Which goes up more over time?
Depends on how fast sea levels rise. :-)
I have no particular evidence though.
Quote: MDawgLike the Key Largo? That was someone's dream too.
By and large the small fry and dumps don't make it, or keep changing hands until they close.
It's like the difference between buying crappy property in bad neighborhoods at a discount, or paying market top dollar for oceanfront. Which goes up more over time?
Have to take issue with you on this one, MDawg. Key Largo was a nice little property with pretty decent rooms. Area was not particularly bad. Somebody can check on this, but I think it was sold to developers at a significant profit, not because it failed in any sense. It was a small scale Tuscany, basically.
As to small fry and dumps, the downtown has really been more consistent than the strip in terms of what makes it, and downtown is all small fry and dumps. El Cortez, Golden Gate, Plaza, Gold Spike, and hotels (I use that term loosely) like The Downtowner. All small fry and dumps, but no problem with longevity. On the strip, you have the Thunderbird and all of those cut rate motels. They're the same as 40 years ago. It's the strip properties with the shorter shelf lives and spectacular holes in the ground failures.
I paid cash for my building, and am not particularly worried about staying closed while the virus rages. At the same times my purchase, the shop two doors down was sold for $1,000 down and $1,000 a month for twenty years. Those owners were desperate to open because they needed the cash flow. Casinos are no different.
Have you researched it?
I have not extensively but from I have read online, the property has suffered from a series of bankruptcies, closed in 2005, and eventually was burned to the ground where arson was suspected, when no one would buy it even after the offer price was lowered from $79M to $48M with no takers, in - looks like 2013.
I mean there was supposedly a $225M bid (not accepted) on the property in 2007,
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2007/jun/17/own-your-own-casino/
and yet six years later they couldn't even get $48M for it and had to do a bust out operation. Doesn't sound like a success story.
Again, if you have any actual facts and not a vague recollection to back up that this property was a success, I stand corrected.
The reason I even mention the Key Largo is that we used to drive by it occasionally in the 2000s while staying long term in Vegas, and it looked worse and worse every time, finally ending up a scorched shell.
Yes, and I've been to all the nice ones.
Quote: rxwineI'm probably just reflecting my own attitude, as there has never been a casino, too dumpy or too dangerous for me to walk into. How could it fail?
Have you been to Silver Nugget, Poker Palace, and Bighorn?
