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rawtuff
rawtuff
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:32:19 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Quote: Wizard

It happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.

If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.

Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?

Occam's razor.



Personally, I don't understand this discussion about the report of a rare event by one member. Whether or not the event happened as reported, individuals can assess for themselves. Individual assessments probably include both qualitative (is it believable?) and quantitative (is it unlikely?) aspects. A person can believe the event true as reported, or not. However much these personal assessments pile up, imho they change nothing. No one except Alan knows the veracity of his claim.

But, Wiz, doesn't your comment confirm that we should expect to see any of those dice-roll sequences at any time. once, with equal likelihood? Don't we all agree that Alan's unlikely event is statistically possible? Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?

(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)



Not a single word of report on the media about those 18 yos in this age and era of instant information about anything and everything where every news worthy event and its (fake) brother are all over the net gives you your answer. Didn't ever happen. Maybe it was 8 yos and Alan misheard it while coming back from the mensroom. Maybe he dreamed about it and believed it to be truth. Who knows.
One thing is for certain - it didn't happen, or it would've been all over the internet and well known as a fact.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
darkoz
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:35:26 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Quote: LuckyPhow

Quote: Wizard

It happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.

If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.

Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?

Occam's razor.



Personally, I don't understand this discussion about the report of a rare event by one member. Whether or not the event happened as reported, individuals can assess for themselves. Individual assessments probably include both qualitative (is it believable?) and quantitative (is it unlikely?) aspects. A person can believe the event true as reported, or not. However much these personal assessments pile up, imho they change nothing. No one except Alan knows the veracity of his claim.

But, Wiz, doesn't your comment confirm that we should expect to see any of those dice-roll sequences at any time. once, with equal likelihood? Don't we all agree that Alan's unlikely event is statistically possible? Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?

(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)



Not a single word of report on the media about those 18 yos in this age and era of instant information about anything and everything where every news worthy event and its (fake) brother are all over the net gives you your answer. Didn't ever happen. Maybe it was 8 yos and Alan misheard it while coming back from the mensroom. Maybe he dreamed about it and believed it to be truth. Who knows.
One thing is for certain - it didn't happen, or it would've been all over the internet and well known as a fact.



I got the impression this happened a long time ago.

More than a decade, correct Alan?

Two decades ago?

1999 was a different age for instant information as the turn of the century is for horse and buggies
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:36:18 AM permalink
Anyway back to the pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/us/politics/blood-plasma-covid-19.html

Blood plasma as covid cure is out as of now.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AlanMendelson
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:36:45 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?

(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)



I didnt bring it up this time around. And I havent brought it up over the past several years. Others do.

In this latest round I was falsely accused of rolling the 18 yos in a row myself. That's what triggered this round.

Years ago I was happy to let it go because I had no proof. I still have no proof. And frankly if I did have proof it still wouldn't make the 6 o'clock news.
rawtuff
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:46:46 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz


More than a decade, correct Alan?

Two decades ago?

1999 was a different age for instant information as the turn of the century is for horse and buggies



No.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
darkoz
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:56:56 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Anyway back to the pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/us/politics/blood-plasma-covid-19.html

Blood plasma as covid cure is out as of now.



Blood plasma out as mentioned.

Roche's drug Tocizilumab now out as well

https://european-biotechnology.com/up-to-date/latest-news/news/roches-il-6-receptor-blocker-fails-in-phase-iii.html

Sanofi Kevzara failed as well

Regeneron Sarilumab both out!

https://www.docwirenews.com/docwire-pick/rheumatology-picks/sarilumab-regeneron-and-sanofis-arthritis-drug-flops-in-critically-ill-covid-19-patients/


(Y'all know where this is going right?)
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ChumpChange
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August 19th, 2020 at 9:26:24 AM permalink
I got a quote from my local garage about buying 4 new Goodyear tires for $700 on Monday morning. It's Wednesday morning and a national boycott of Goodyear tires has been announced by the passenger of The Beast that rolls on Goodyear tires. Ohio Goodyear employees should be feeling something but they'd be fired for breaking things.
AlanMendelson
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August 19th, 2020 at 9:26:54 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Quote: LuckyPhow

Quote: Wizard

It happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.

If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.

Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?

Occam's razor.



Personally, I don't understand this discussion about the report of a rare event by one member. Whether or not the event happened as reported, individuals can assess for themselves. Individual assessments probably include both qualitative (is it believable?) and quantitative (is it unlikely?) aspects. A person can believe the event true as reported, or not. However much these personal assessments pile up, imho they change nothing. No one except Alan knows the veracity of his claim.

But, Wiz, doesn't your comment confirm that we should expect to see any of those dice-roll sequences at any time. once, with equal likelihood? Don't we all agree that Alan's unlikely event is statistically possible? Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?

(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)



Not a single word of report on the media about those 18 yos in this age and era of instant information about anything and everything where every news worthy event and its (fake) brother are all over the net gives you your answer. Didn't ever happen. Maybe it was 8 yos and Alan misheard it while coming back from the mensroom. Maybe he dreamed about it and believed it to be truth. Who knows.
One thing is for certain - it didn't happen, or it would've been all over the internet and well known as a fact.



I went through this same level of criticism and personal attacks years ago. And for the record it was about five years ago... but I don't remember and I'm not going to look it up.

If I had thought 18 yos in a row was a big deal and NEWSWORTHY then I could have pitched the story to CBS and CNN. After all, I was employed by CBS and we had a working relationship with CNN.

18 yos in a row was not a bonafide news story then and it's not a bonafide news story now.

Had I picked up the phone and called my bosses and told them some kid just threw 18 yos in a row at Caesars Palace they'd say to me "what's a yo?" And the conversation would go downhill from there.
darkoz
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August 19th, 2020 at 9:28:53 AM permalink
In the movie Rocky.

"Yo, Adrienne".

It was like 18 times!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
rawtuff
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August 19th, 2020 at 9:42:11 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I went through this same level of criticism and personal attacks years ago.





Not to take anything from you, but "personal attacks"? Need to get over yourself.

If I were to claim i witnessed lightning strike 4 times in a row on the same spot I would've questioned my memories/experience and looked for other confirmations before believing it.

18 yos in a row 5 years back would've made the news sites on the internet, not a shred of doubt about that.

And btw, I remember very well the discussion from "years back", was a participant there. Same old sh.. stuff.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
AlanMendelson
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August 19th, 2020 at 9:50:32 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

Not to take anything from you, but "personal attacks"? Need to get over yourself.

If I were to claim i witnessed lightning strike 4 times in a row on the same spot I would've questioned my memories/experience and looked for other confirmations before believing it.

18 yos in a row 5 years back would've made the news sites on the internet, not a shred of doubt about that.



What's your horse in this race? What is your purpose in continuing this?

By the way, Google how often lightning strikes the same place such as the Empire State Building.
rawtuff
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August 19th, 2020 at 9:52:37 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

What's your horse in this race? What is your purpose in continuing this?



Truth thirst. A natural drive to all human beings.

Quote: AlanMendelson



By the way, Google how often lightning strikes the same place such as the Empire State Building.



What?
In a row. Means one after the other uninterrupted in a short period of time. Reading comprehension.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
sabre
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August 19th, 2020 at 9:55:29 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

What's your horse in this race? What is your purpose in continuing this?



A question you should ask yourself.

It didn't happen. Get over it.
unJon
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August 19th, 2020 at 11:56:04 AM permalink
This yo conversation is boring. To kill some time I went to the craps table to see if I could witness a very unlikely event. I saw the following rolls:

2 1
4 3
2 5
6 5
3 5
5 2
3 6
2 3
1 5
3 6
1 4
1 3
3 6
2 5
2 2
5 4
6 2
5 2

I think I must be mistaken though. That sequence is twice as unlikely as 18 yos in a row.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
rawtuff
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August 19th, 2020 at 12:01:10 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

This yo conversation is boring. To kill some time I went to the craps table to see if I could witness a very unlikely event. I saw the following rolls:

2 1
4 3
2 5
6 5
3 5
5 2
3 6
2 3
1 5
3 6
1 4
1 3
3 6
2 5
2 2
5 4
6 2
5 2

I think I must be mistaken though. That sequence is twice as unlikely as 18 yos in a row.



We are humans. Humans look for/recognize/remember only very symmetrical/specific (in our minds) streaks. Thus, the recognizable streaks that will be remembered are handful out of sextillions. You are aware of that, right?

This 18 yos streak would've made news on the net. There is nothing in the records.
Occam's razor.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
ChumpChange
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August 19th, 2020 at 1:16:05 PM permalink
I'm working on how I would play Yos only, but with the HA it's better suited to playing the split 2 numbers on Roulette.
If I can get a 60 roll turn going and get 20 yos that I bet on, I could turn my $150 buy-in into $1500, starting with $1 bets and going up to $10 bets.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Aug 19, 2020
billryan
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August 19th, 2020 at 2:00:38 PM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

We are humans. Humans look for/recognize/remember only very symmetrical/specific (in our minds) streaks. Thus, the recognizable streaks that will be remembered are handful out of sextillions. You are aware of that, right?

This 18 yos streak would've made news on the net. There is nothing in the records.
Occam's razor.




I can just see the story- reporters set up outside the casino telling the world someone just hit 18yo's. What a compelling human interest story. I'm sure it would have been picked up nationally, maybe been international. Maybe the would bring in a guest statistician to explain how rare it was.
I've heard several stories of people turning $100 into a $1,000,000, and was in AC when Don Johnson was taking two casinos for millions, yet neither got any press while it was happening.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
rawtuff
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August 19th, 2020 at 2:23:28 PM permalink
The internet. It's huge. It has every story of significance (and often not) recorded somewhere (including Don Johnson's story - wikipedia entry). it's also full with fake stories just to bring attention/traffic to the webmaster/blogger, cause this means revenue.
Everyone and his dog are reporters now. Every blogger, every facebooker, every twiterer. Everyone with an internet connection device.
There is a record for longest streaks of almost everything, including craps streaks of all kinds on numerous and numerous sites.
Nothing comes out for that 18 in a row yos streak, an event so rare that the number of grains of sand on the entire planet isn't even close to describing the odds against (you need the sand from six THOUSAND more planets like the earth to represent the odds of it happening) .
Yeah, right.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
unJon
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August 19th, 2020 at 2:52:15 PM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

We are humans. Humans look for/recognize/remember only very symmetrical/specific (in our minds) streaks. Thus, the recognizable streaks that will be remembered are handful out of sextillions. You are aware of that, right?

This 18 yos streak would've made news on the net. There is nothing in the records.
Occam's razor.



Not sure if serious . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AxelWolf
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August 19th, 2020 at 7:07:59 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I have to ask, how is there any mathematical advantage in craps? My understanding is that every bet is a negative expectation bet -- even the "odds" bets because they are linked to the flat bet.

And even if you could bet the "odds" independently of the flat bet, the "odds" have no house advantage but also no player advantage.

The only time I could see a player having a mathematical advantage at craps is when they have actual free bets.

Red Rock used to give players a free table game bet each week as part of their promotions. I used to get one free $75 table game bet. It was an even money free bet only. I think that's the only time I had an advantage and it was only on that one bet.


You are correct, this isn't the Fantasyland Adventures Axel Wolf where I claim I/one can beat the house advantage consistently every time I/they visit a casino and I never lose at anything, you're not going to beat the game itself if it has a built-in house advantage. Obviously, you might get lucky and have a winning streak.


With that being said, I have three words for you.... Promotions, promotions, promotions. I've been involved with craps plays that were worth thousands of dollars an hour with very little risk. Of course, that's not counting travel time or any possible Hoops you have to jump through. I basically talking about during the time of play.

I would estimate there's about three places in the United States right now where you could have an advantage via casino promotions that's worth at least $100 an hour. Knowing what to look for and Finding the locations is a hard part.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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August 19th, 2020 at 7:14:17 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I can just see the story- reporters set up outside the casino telling the world someone just hit 18yo's. What a compelling human interest story. I'm sure it would have been picked up nationally, maybe been international. Maybe the would bring in a guest statistician to explain how rare it was.
I've heard several stories of people turning $100 into a $1,000,000, and was in AC when Don Johnson was taking two casinos for millions, yet neither got any press while it was happening.

That wasn't all that unusual of an event given the amount of money he was betting. People win and lose Millions all the time. No one ever has or will ever Witness or roll 18 yo's in a row legitimately.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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August 19th, 2020 at 7:18:07 PM permalink
You guys need not to forget, according to Alan, during this 18 yo's in a row phenomenon not a single person bet one time on it.

That's pretty odd in and of itself. How do we know there were 18 in a row, who was keeping count? You're telling me that they're all sitting there counting down number 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 and yet not one person is like... oh...hmm perhaps I should put a dollar on it. Apparently they were all very discipline gamblers.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
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August 19th, 2020 at 7:23:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You guys need not to forget, according to Alan, during this 18 yo's in a row phenomenon not a single person bet one time on it.



Correct. Who would ever imagine that an 11 would be rolled again... and again. So the three of us (including the shooter) at the table stood there hoping the shooter would make the pass or roll a box number where there was a bet.
AxelWolf
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August 19th, 2020 at 7:28:56 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Correct. Who would ever imagine that an 11 would be rolled again... and again. So the three of us (including the shooter) at the table stood there hoping the shooter would make the pass or roll a box number where there was a bet.

Unfortunately, even with your interesting job and award-winning achievements your legacy will always be 18 Yo's in a row in the gaming community and forums. 😢
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DeMango
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August 19th, 2020 at 7:33:42 PM permalink
I’m stuck on waiting 174 centuries for it to happen, again.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
AlanMendelson
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August 19th, 2020 at 7:49:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Unfortunately, even with your interesting job and award-winning achievements your legacy will always be 18 Yo's in a row in the gaming community and forums. 😢



Absolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.

How lucky that makes me.
sabre
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:00:33 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Absolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.



Unfortunately the same can't be said for you.
sabre
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:00:34 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Absolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.



Unfortunately the same can't be said for you.
darkoz
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:03:34 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

Unfortunately the same can't be said for you.



Arthur Conan Doyle would have been torn to pieces on this forum
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
rxwine
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August 19th, 2020 at 8:31:02 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Arthur Conan Doyle would have been torn to pieces on this forum



I guess 18yos and 2 slices of bread gets you a baloney sandwich around here.

(Arthur Conan Doyle created a legendary character in fiction, but as a person, was prone to believing in table tipping, spirit talking, psychic frauds)
Sanitized for Your Protection
SOOPOO
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August 20th, 2020 at 4:01:13 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Correct. Who would ever imagine that an 11 would be rolled again... and again. So the three of us (including the shooter) at the table stood there hoping the shooter would make the pass or roll a box number where there was a bet.



I would have made at least $180. I bet $10 on the come every roll. In rare occasions when I am winning, I do sometimes go crazy and bump my bet. Likely by 7th or 8th yo I'm up to $15. And by 12th up to $20. So maybe I take $250 from that roll. I would start betting the yo on the 19th roll for sure....

I notice repeats easily. If you roll 3 tens in a row I can assure you I'm yapping about it as it is happening. (I'm getting paid "off and on").
I'd have been making a big whoop-ass by the 4th yo.
SOOPOO
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August 20th, 2020 at 4:09:41 AM permalink
OK... back to "Vegas shutting down again".

Question for those who have a better idea about the industry than I do.

Is it possible that there is a single casino/hotel (to exclude a casino which is a gas station) that is making a profit now in Las Vegas? With the restrictions on number of slots, number of tables, number of players per table, number of hotel rooms they can book, number of people who can eat in a restaurant, clubs closed, shows dark, obviously revenue is WAY down. Plus added expenses of COVID-19 needs... free sanitizer, paid temperature takers, added cleaning staff, lawyers, masks, .....

I think every major casino must still be losing money today. Of course it is possibly less than being shuttered, but still there is no business that stays in business to lose money.
AlanMendelson
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August 20th, 2020 at 4:33:46 AM permalink
They're probably all losing money.

During the shutdown MGM said they needed 50% occupancy just to break even. With a 50% limit on occupancy now, the latest figures show an actual occupancy rate of 37%.

But I'm sure the losses are not severe. They're staying open in anticipation that things will get better.

Yesterday Boyd told the city of Henderson that their casino there will remain closed. The notification preserved their gaming license for another year.
Mission146
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August 20th, 2020 at 5:11:30 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Absolutely. In the gaming community and forums there is no doubt what you say is true.

How lucky that makes me.



It does!

One way or another, your account has generated literal years of related conversation! I'd say that counts for something.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ChumpChange
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August 20th, 2020 at 6:58:25 AM permalink
Oh, 18 yos on the come-out? If I was starting my betting progression at $60 on the PL and the table max was $2000, I'd make about $15K out of it.
AlanMendelson
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August 20th, 2020 at 8:04:24 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Oh, 18 yos on the come-out? If I was starting my betting progression at $60 on the PL and the table max was $2000, I'd make about $15K out of it.



Sorry. The point was established. 18 come out yos and we all would have won a ton of money.
AxelWolf
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August 20th, 2020 at 8:45:19 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

OK... back to "Vegas shutting down again".

Question for those who have a better idea about the industry than I do.

Is it possible that there is a single casino/hotel (to exclude a casino which is a gas station) that is making a profit now in Las Vegas? With the restrictions on number of slots, number of tables, number of players per table, number of hotel rooms they can book, number of people who can eat in a restaurant, clubs closed, shows dark, obviously revenue is WAY down. Plus added expenses of COVID-19 needs... free sanitizer, paid temperature takers, added cleaning staff, lawyers, masks, .....

I think every major casino must still be losing money today. Of course it is possibly less than being shuttered, but still there is no business that stays in business to lose money.

I don't think the Dottys/JPJ are losing money.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
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August 20th, 2020 at 9:10:15 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I don't think the Dottys/JPJ are losing money.



I agree, but I don't think anyone really considers those casinos.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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August 20th, 2020 at 9:31:21 AM permalink
I'd imagine the Longhorn is making money, as is Casino Royale. Places like Wild Wild West and Ellis Island that function independently from the attached hotels should be profitable.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
rxwine
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August 20th, 2020 at 9:46:24 AM permalink
Yeah, I think I’d rather be running a dump with old slots, than a mega casino with tons of overhead costs right now.
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AxelWolf
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August 20th, 2020 at 9:48:27 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Yeah, I think I’d rather be running a dump with old slots, than a mega casino with tons of overhead costs right now.

they always have low overhead costs
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TDVegas
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August 20th, 2020 at 9:58:47 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

OK... back to "Vegas shutting down again".

Question for those who have a better idea about the industry than I do.

Is it possible that there is a single casino/hotel (to exclude a casino which is a gas station) that is making a profit now in Las Vegas? With the restrictions on number of slots, number of tables, number of players per table, number of hotel rooms they can book, number of people who can eat in a restaurant, clubs closed, shows dark, obviously revenue is WAY down. Plus added expenses of COVID-19 needs... free sanitizer, paid temperature takers, added cleaning staff, lawyers, masks, .....

I think every major casino must still be losing money today. Of course it is possibly less than being shuttered, but still there is no business that stays in business to lose money.


If they are open...people have jobs and aren’t on unemployment (furlough) or worse, as in the case of 4 Station properties....fired.

There’s no easy answers. I’m not sure how the financials are working right now on a corporate level (treading water?)....minor losses? Big losses each week?

Only the casinos know....and they disclose that info like they disclose slot holds or the details on “random contests”....which means no one knows except them.

I’m all for asking and knowing how locals operators are actually doing since opening. None I know have given out that info. Public companies will report earnings....but that’s not a day to day accounting of how they are faring right now.

August 31 is the end date for MANY employees at MGM corporate. They are no longer furloughed as of that date. They are fired, which means all of them will have to go on Cobra at an extra $600-$1,000/month out of pocket. It’s going to get worse before better for Vegas.
MDawg
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August 20th, 2020 at 9:59:21 AM permalink
Like the Key Largo? That was someone's dream too.

By and large the small fry and dumps don't make it, or keep changing hands until they close.

It's like the difference between buying crappy property in bad neighborhoods at a discount, or paying market top dollar for oceanfront. Which goes up more over time?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
unJon
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August 20th, 2020 at 10:21:45 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Like the Key Largo? That was someone's dream too.

By and large the small fry and dumps don't make it, or keep changing hands until they close.

It's like the difference between buying crappy property in bad neighborhoods at a discount, or paying market top dollar for oceanfront. Which goes up more over time?



Depends on how fast sea levels rise. :-)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
rxwine
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August 20th, 2020 at 10:25:44 AM permalink
Selling the property doesn’t necessarily mean they weren’t making money. They could just be tired of the issues. Or even some other reason.

I have no particular evidence though.
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redietz
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August 20th, 2020 at 10:49:43 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Like the Key Largo? That was someone's dream too.

By and large the small fry and dumps don't make it, or keep changing hands until they close.

It's like the difference between buying crappy property in bad neighborhoods at a discount, or paying market top dollar for oceanfront. Which goes up more over time?




Have to take issue with you on this one, MDawg. Key Largo was a nice little property with pretty decent rooms. Area was not particularly bad. Somebody can check on this, but I think it was sold to developers at a significant profit, not because it failed in any sense. It was a small scale Tuscany, basically.

As to small fry and dumps, the downtown has really been more consistent than the strip in terms of what makes it, and downtown is all small fry and dumps. El Cortez, Golden Gate, Plaza, Gold Spike, and hotels (I use that term loosely) like The Downtowner. All small fry and dumps, but no problem with longevity. On the strip, you have the Thunderbird and all of those cut rate motels. They're the same as 40 years ago. It's the strip properties with the shorter shelf lives and spectacular holes in the ground failures.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
billryan
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August 20th, 2020 at 11:45:54 AM permalink
Debt service is the key issue. For years, places like The Western and Las Vegas Club survived because Jackie owned them forever and owned them free and clear. He sold the properties and when the new owners had to pay the monthly nut plus pay off their loans, things went south.
I paid cash for my building, and am not particularly worried about staying closed while the virus rages. At the same times my purchase, the shop two doors down was sold for $1,000 down and $1,000 a month for twenty years. Those owners were desperate to open because they needed the cash flow. Casinos are no different.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
MDawg
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August 20th, 2020 at 11:50:25 AM permalink
re: the Key Largo, Vegas: "I think" isn't facts, Red.

Have you researched it?

I have not extensively but from I have read online, the property has suffered from a series of bankruptcies, closed in 2005, and eventually was burned to the ground where arson was suspected, when no one would buy it even after the offer price was lowered from $79M to $48M with no takers, in - looks like 2013.

I mean there was supposedly a $225M bid (not accepted) on the property in 2007,
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2007/jun/17/own-your-own-casino/
and yet six years later they couldn't even get $48M for it and had to do a bust out operation. Doesn't sound like a success story.

Again, if you have any actual facts and not a vague recollection to back up that this property was a success, I stand corrected.

The reason I even mention the Key Largo is that we used to drive by it occasionally in the 2000s while staying long term in Vegas, and it looked worse and worse every time, finally ending up a scorched shell.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
rxwine
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August 20th, 2020 at 12:10:49 PM permalink
I'm probably just reflecting my own attitude, as there has never been a casino, too dumpy or too dangerous for me to walk into. How could it fail?


Yes, and I've been to all the nice ones.
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mcallister3200
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August 20th, 2020 at 12:29:56 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I'm probably just reflecting my own attitude, as there has never been a casino, too dumpy or too dangerous for me to walk into. How could it fail?



Have you been to Silver Nugget, Poker Palace, and Bighorn?
Last edited by: mcallister3200 on Aug 20, 2020
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