Vegas shutting down again rumor
Quote: racquetI don't think it's obvious, and my prior response to Mike makes a point that Mike's official definition of the word "hack" can in fact describe almost anyone that publishes almost anything, given that anyone else is entitled to an opinion about what it says. Some folks in France think Jerry Lewis is a comedy god. I think he's a hack.
Mike has replied with the reason for the suspension. He mentions only "hack". Mike - any other offenses in the post?
The currently established definition of "hack", in fact, it's first or primary definition, refers to an opinion about someone's work. I do not have or need an opinion about motive. The word, as defined, does not refer to the individual, but rather his work.
Jerry Lewis raised millions of dollars to help defeat muscular dystrophy. He was a kind, gentle, caring, giving person who generously dedicated a significant portion of his personal and professional life to helping others.
Still and all, a hack.
Well, I hope if anyone ever refers to me as a tout, they are ready for a suspension!
And tout is less subjective than "hack," so clearly I should henceforth always be referred to as a "handicapper." I will accept "Sir Handicapper," but you don't have to go with the caps if you don't want to.
Quote: coachbellyDid you intend it to be self-deprecating?
No. I have no high opinion of my writing skills. I'm a grinder, aka a "hack." It's in my blog entry homage to Hunter Thompson.
Quote: racquetMike has replied with the reason for the suspension. He mentions only "hack".
He was specifically replying to kewlj's question about whether or not "hack" is an insult.
21 threw a couple of more insults Alan's way, besides calling him a hack.
It appears that the 3-day verdict at the end of his reply applies to kewlj's suspension.
That's my understanding.
Quote: SOOPOOKewlj....without wasting your time arguing with someone who claims to have rolled 18 yo's in a row!
If you want to talk about counting 2 tables, start a thread about it.
Sorry. I never claimed to roll 18 yos in a row.
This, I'm afraid, is part of the problem with forums. Someone makes a misstatement and the misstatement gets repeated and then is considered to be a fact.
Quote: redietzNo. I have no high opinion of my writing skills.
You have no high opinion of your writing skills, but calling yourself a "hack" was not meant to be a self-deprecating comment on your writing skills?
In the news business it's considered an insult because it means the reporter made no effort to report or improve the report.
"Oh, John just phoned it in. But the reporter at Channel 55 found out the driver was drinking."
Quote: redietz
And tout is less subjective than "hack," so clearly I should henceforth always be referred to as a "handicapper." I will accept "Sir Handicapper," but you don't have to go with the caps if you don't want to.
Is scamdicapper considered an insult?
Quote: DRichIs scamdicapper considered an insult?
Ah! Excellent!
See, this is why it's good to have a bona fide professional handicapper on the forum!
The first use of the term "scamdicapper" was by former Seattle Times reporter Mike McCusker in his annual book published out of Las Vegas during the 80's and 90's called "Tipsters or Gypsters?" The book was also called The McCusker Report. McCusker used "scamdicapper," and some others, castigating those who relied to much on historical trends as "trendsvestites." Many of McCusker's colorful verbiage blasts were included in an SF Chronicle feature about him, which is buried in some box around here somewhere.
Since I was monitored by McCusker for many years, I can faithfully answer that "scamdicapper" is not a term of endearment and was never applied to me by the guy who coined the term. McCusker, by the way, did not just include the numbers in his book. He added info on the personal history and business practices of the handicappers he monitored. So even if you had a great year, but you had conducted yourself poorly with clients or partners in the past, he would spell that out to readers.
It's just so handy, you can use it for so many things besides just flushing your kidneys. You can tan hides with it, mark your territory, put out fires. Got to be at least 101 uses?Quote: ChumpChangeWhy do I keep running into these survivalists who think piss is the answer to everything?
And to think, I would have given you $2,500 for the site and got rid of all that BS. I did PM you with an interest to buy it.Quote: AlanMendelsonI think calling it a urinal forum now is a mild description of what it has become. It is certainly a racist forum.
I'm disappointed in you Kewlj for failing to point out it was not a urinal, a sewer or a racist site when I ran it. You should have pointed out that I gave the site (gave not sold) to Todd Witteles (aka Dan Druff) more than three years ago because I was tired of deleting offensive posts and I didnt want to be held responsible for any offensive or unlawful postings on the site. Witteles and no one else is the sole administrator of that site now and it appears that his desire for "free speech" is more important than stopping racist remarks, as well as the discrimination and perhaps even illegal activities that are promoted there.
For the record, I also revealed how over the years Rob Singer misled me about his video poker plays and claims.
I washed my hands of the whole mess, and frankly I hope federal laws are changed to make the site responsible for what is posted on it.
But I get it, you went with the devil you knew.
Quote: AxelWolfAnd to think, I would have given you $2,500 for the site and got rid of all that BS. I did PM you with an interest to buy it.
But I get it, you went with the devil you knew.
You were late. I already agreed to give it to Dan. I didnt know then two things:
1. Dan still had to buy the license that was held by my son
2. Dan would not honor our deal to stop the attacks on me...
I wouldn't have given him the forum at no charge if he wasn't going to stop the attacks... without his "promise" I just would have kept to my plan to shut it.
Quote: AlanMendelsonSorry. I never claimed to roll 18 yos in a row.
This, I'm afraid, is part of the problem with forums. Someone makes a misstatement and the misstatement gets repeated and then is considered to be a fact.
No, you said you witnessed 18 yo's in a row at Caesars Palace, no?
Considering the odds against, 1 divided by 18 to the 18th power, and you considered that statement to be a fact.
Quote: petroglyphIt's just so handy, you can use it for so many things besides just flushing your kidneys. You can tan hides with it, mark your territory, put out fires. Got to be at least 101 uses?
I agree, drinking pee might improve the veracity of a persons posts!
Quote: DeMangoNo, you said you witnessed 18 yo's in a row at Caesars Palace, no?
Considering the odds against, 1 divided by 18 to the 18th power, and you considered that statement to be a fact.
Yes. I saw it.
Unfortunately I didn't request the tape in time.
I have no proof.
Quote: DeMangoNo, you said you witnessed 18 yo's in a row at Caesars Palace, no?
Considering the odds against, 1 divided by 18 to the 18th power, and you considered that statement to be a fact.
In fairness to AlanMendelson, I stated at the time (and still maintain) that this is theoretically possible.
The main argument against betting systems, such as the Martingale, is that an individual losing result becomes no less likely after x number of trials than it was on any or all individual trials before it. 12 Don’t Pass winners in a row makes the next result being Don’t Pass no less likely than it was on the first attempt.
Similarly, the probability of rolling a Yo is always 1/18. It doesn’t matter how many have been rolled consecutively prior to the next attempt.
Anyway, this is literally the same argument that gets applied when demonstrating that betting systems do not work in the long run. You can’t say this position is sometimes mathematically valid and sometimes not...a particular mathematical proposition is either always valid or always invalid.
Thus, theoretically possible.
With that out of the way, let’s discuss likelihood:
If forced to choose which I consider more likely:
1. That Alan witnessed 18 consecutive Yos,
Or:
2. That KewlJ can (under certain conditions) play and keep the count at one table whilst simultaneously tracking the count at an adjacent table.
I’m going with Option #2.
$1,000 that pays $15,000 + your bet back?
Quote: ChumpChangeSo what's the maximum bet allowed on a yo on a $5,000 max table?
$1,000 that pays $15,000 + your bet back?
I dont know about Caesars because I havent played there in about 20 months, and at the time the max bet might have been as much as $25,000...
But Red Rock currently has $5,000 max place, come and passline and field bets and the max on 3/11 is $400, and the max on 2/12 is $200.
Edited to add: I think the max odds at Red Rock is only $4,000 and that's 10X your flat bet. So a $5,000 passline bettor can only have $4,000 max odds.
On the hardways the max is $1,000 at Red Rock.
Quote: AlanMendelson
Unfortunately I didn't request the tape in time.
I'd love to see that conversation.
"That was pretty amazing ... can I get a tape of that incredible 18 yos in a row?"
"Uh, what do you mean? Nobody threw 18 yos in a row at this table."
"YES THEY DID!"
<runs screaming out of the casino>
Quote: billryanIf a person has a spectacular run at a table, is it possible to request a video of the event?
You can ask. But I was told that tapes were kept for only three days unless there was a hold placed on a tape for some reason.
When the Fire Bet first started at the Rio there was an issue when a shooter hit all six points but a player's Fire Bet chip was .missing off his position on the layout.
The procedure at the Rio was to take a puck, put it in the center of the table off side up, which signaled the eye to save the tape.
In this case they immediately reviewed the tape to confirm the bet was made. But otherwise they would have saved the tape.
At Caesars I requested the tape more than a week or two later after I found out how unusual the 18 yos were. I didnt realize it was like the Second Coming.
Quote: Mission146In fairness to AlanMendelson, I stated at the time (and still maintain) that this is theoretically possible.
The main argument against betting systems, such as the Martingale, is that an individual losing result becomes no less likely after x number of trials than it was on any or all individual trials before it. 12 Don’t Pass winners in a row makes the next result being Don’t Pass no less likely than it was on the first attempt.
Similarly, the probability of rolling a Yo is always 1/18. It doesn’t matter how many have been rolled consecutively prior to the next attempt.
Anyway, this is literally the same argument that gets applied when demonstrating that betting systems do not work in the long run. You can’t say this position is sometimes mathematically valid and sometimes not...a particular mathematical proposition is either always valid or always invalid.
Thus, theoretically possible.
With that out of the way, let’s discuss likelihood:
If forced to choose which I consider more likely:
1. That Alan witnessed 18 consecutive Yos,
Or:
2. That KewlJ can (under certain conditions) play and keep the count at one table whilst simultaneously tracking the count at an adjacent table.
I’m going with Option #2.
I said this before, but taking Alan at his word (or close to it -- 16 or 17 in a row), the Ockham's Razor explanation for me is that loaded dice somehow found their way into the game. Whether by accident or design, somebody grabbed a pair of dice meant for "special occasions." Wouldn't that provide a semi-reasonable explanation?
It's not like loaded dice are a snipe or anything.
Quote: AlanMendelsonSorry. I never claimed to roll 18 yos in a row.
This, I'm afraid, is part of the problem with forums. Someone makes a misstatement and the misstatement gets repeated and then is considered to be a fact.
Ok... my error i think.... Don't argue with someone who claims to have SEEN someone roll 18 yo's in a row! Is that better?
Anyway, Alan, I really do like your posts, and feel you add a lot to this forum. I still can't get over the silly claim about the yo's, and mostly, that you for one second expected ANYONE to believe it!
Your being married at a craps table is enough for me to enter you in the WoV hall of Fame!
Take my comments as good natured ribbing...
Quote: DeMangoNo, you said you witnessed 18 yo's in a row at Caesars Palace, no?
Considering the odds against, 1 divided by 18 to the 18th power, and you considered that statement to be a fact.
Happens once out of around 40,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times I think. So the likelihood of Alan either lying, or 'mis-remembering', is trillions of times more likely than him seeing it. (Barring rigged dice....)
I'm not that big a craps player.... but for those who are..... How many consecutive 11's would there be before a pit boss would take notice and check the dice? 6? 7? I remember lots of comments after 4 7's in a row were rolled.... and that is not that rare, obviously....
Quote: SOOPOOHappens once out of around 40,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times I think. So the likelihood of Alan either lying, or 'mis-remembering', is trillions of times more likely than him seeing it. (Barring rigged dice....)
It happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.
If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.
Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?
Occam's razor.
Quote: WizardIt happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.
If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.
Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?
Occam's razor.
So you are saying there is a chance it happened.
I once attended a secret Hot Tuna concert that was on the night of a horrific snow storm. Less than 200 hundred people showed up for a concert that was taped for later airing on the radio. Over the years, I have met at least a thousand people who also were there.
Quote: AlanMendelson...after I found out how unusual the 18 yos were. I didnt realize it was like the Second Coming.
It's roughly equivalent to about 75 consecutive blacks or reds on a single zero roulette wheel (never have happened, the longest known streaks are about 30 something I think and even one such streak of ~30 occurring is a huge deal and you google knows all about them extremely unusual occurrences). 75 will absolutely leave breathless everyone in the casino, city and world who has ever played roulette or is just a bit adept of figuring the odds.
If that was to happen anywhere in the world let alone Vegas the US, it's a virtual guarantee there'll be articles all over the media for months to come.
The mere fact you or anyone else didn't think much of it and didn't immediately call the national media to sell them the news is incomprehensible. Not a single person besides you have ever confirmed this astonishingly rare event.
Conclusion?
Is there any chance that you made a mistake?Quote: AlanMendelson
And when you said they checked the dice, I believe you said the stick guy did a quick rattle with the stick or something like that.
You forgot to add: People that just make up stuff for attention or whatever other motivation they have.(I do not believe that's the case with Alan, I think there's another explanation).Quote: Wizard
Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?
Obviously it's highly going to depend on the individual. Things like Age, medical condition and any drugs they might be taking could affect things as well.
Quote: sabreDon't forget that no gambler at the table starting betting on the 15:1 payout and pressing. Nobody thought to throw $10 on it after the 4th one, double by the 7th, up to $50 by the 9th, easily $100 on the 12th and nothing less than a purple by the 15th one.
Actually I would be surprised if anyone had bet on it.
I imagine after the 4th yo, everyone was like wow that was strange. Stay off the yo cause the odds of a fifth occurring are astronomical.
Then as everyone cursed after the fifth one, the same argument would be made for it being a waste of money due to the astronomical odds of a sixth yo, etc etc.
This is the same mentality that makes people bet black spin after spin as a table goes red twenty times straight
They never say "wow, it's a red streak"
They always say, "red so often. Black is due."
Quote: darkozWhat are the odds of 25 consecutive pass line wins without a seven out over a span or 4 hours for one shooter?
Starting anew, around 40 million to 1 against. Not including any time limit, of course. Not even in the same stratosphere as 18 yo's in a row. Considering how many craps tables there are, I'm sure it has happened many times.
Quote: rawtuffIt's roughly equivalent to about 75 consecutive blacks or reds on a single zero roulette wheel (never have happened, the longest known streaks are about 30 something I think and even one such streak of ~30 occurring is a huge deal and you google knows all about them extremely unusual occurrences). 75 will absolutely leave breathless everyone in the casino, city and world who has ever played roulette or is just a bit adept of figuring the odds.
If that was to happen anywhere in the world let alone Vegas the US, it's a virtual guarantee there'll be articles all over the media for months to come.
The mere fact you or anyone else didn't think much of it and didn't immediately call the national media to sell them the news is incomprehensible. Not a single person besides you have ever confirmed this astonishingly rare event.
Conclusion?
Conclusion? At the time I was the national media and I had no idea of the significance.
If you called anyone in the national media today and told them you were at a craps table and someone had just rolled 24 yos in a row, they'd say "thanks for calling."
You see... what you think is important (you being gamblers and mathematicians) means nothing in the real world.
Sorry. That's the truth.
Quote: sabreDon't forget that no gambler at the table starting betting on the 15:1 payout and pressing. Nobody thought to throw $10 on it after the 4th one, double by the 7th, up to $50 by the 9th, easily $100 on the 12th and nothing less than a purple by the 15th one.
Exactly. Who thought another yo was coming?
Quote: AxelWolfIs there any chance that you made a mistake?
And when you said they checked the dice, I believe you said the stick guy did a quick rattle with the stick or something like that.
Yes. I was going by the count of the stickman and the shooter and his buddy. I was standing there waiting for him to roll a box number or the point.
No one was betting the yo, the horn or the field.
To answer your question maybe it was 17, or 19.
Twice the stickman said "I've got to check these dice," and knocked them around with his stick to see how they'd end up.
Quote: darkozActually I would be surprised if anyone had bet on it.
I imagine after the 4th yo, everyone was like wow that was strange. Stay off the yo cause the odds of a fifth occurring are astronomical.
Then as everyone cursed after the fifth one, the same argument would be made for it being a waste of money due to the astronomical odds of a sixth yo, etc etc.
This is the same mentality that makes people bet black spin after spin as a table goes red twenty times straight
They never say "wow, it's a red streak"
They always say, "red so often. Black is due."
Darkoz gets it. Who would have thought another yo was coming? Frankly, if anyone here said they ever bet on the yo they'd be condemned for making a high HA bet. This is a gambling forum for "smart, advantage players" isn't it?
You mathematicians go bonkers if someone isn't betting full odds with no house advantage. LOL
Suddenly you get all wise about betting $10 on a yo because a few yos showed up. If I said "see a yo bet a yo" you'd laugh your asses off at me and call me degenerate, compulsive, addicted.
Frankly I get degenerate, compulsive and addicted anyway and I never bet the yo.
LOL
Ergo the craps players aren't APs.
If in the history of humanity there ever is a an 18 yo roll (or 17 or 16), you can be sure the non AP craps players at the table will bet the yo.
Quote: AlanMendelson
You see... what you think is important (you being gamblers and mathematicians) means nothing in the real world.
That is so not true. Witness 40 reds in a row anywhere in Vegas and I guarantee you there'll be at least several articles on the internet about it on the very next day. Witness 75 reds and the news will travel the world like a tsunami wave news would.
There is not a single word on the internet about 18 yos in a row.
I totally understand your point, but FYI...Quote: sabreAPs wouldn't bet the yo. APs wouldn't play craps.
Ergo the craps players aren't APs.
If in the history of humanity there ever is a an 18 yo roll (or 17 or 16), you can be sure the non AP craps players at the table will bet the yo.
There have been, there are and there will be opportunities where Advantage players would certainly play craps, Baccarat, roulette, Keno and just about any of game there is. I can't think of any standard game in the casino I haven't played with an advantage, they can be few and far in between. Obviously, there's variations of new table games and whatnot I have not had the opportunity to play with an advantage.
Quote: AxelWolfI totally understand your point, but FYI...
There have been, there are and there will be opportunities where Advantage players would certainly play craps, Baccarat, roulette, Keno and just about any of game there is. I can't think of any standard game in the casino I haven't played with an advantage, they can be few and far in between. Obviously, there's variations of new table games and whatnot I have not had the opportunity to play with an advantage.
I have to ask, how is there any mathematical advantage in craps? My understanding is that every bet is a negative expectation bet -- even the "odds" bets because they are linked to the flat bet.
And even if you could bet the "odds" independently of the flat bet, the "odds" have no house advantage but also no player advantage.
The only time I could see a player having a mathematical advantage at craps is when they have actual free bets.
Red Rock used to give players a free table game bet each week as part of their promotions. I used to get one free $75 table game bet. It was an even money free bet only. I think that's the only time I had an advantage and it was only on that one bet.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI have to ask, how is there any mathematical advantage in craps? My understanding is that every bet is a negative expectation bet -- even the "odds" bets because they are linked to the flat bet.
And even if you could bet the "odds" independently of the flat bet, the "odds" have no house advantage but also no player advantage.
The only time I could see a player having a mathematical advantage at craps is when they have actual free bets.
Red Rock used to give players a free table game bet each week as part of their promotions. I used to get one free $75 table game bet. It was an even money free bet only. I think that's the only time I had an advantage and it was only on that one bet.
Factors external to the game itself. You mentioned one possibility, but there are others.
If the total action required to get the $75 free bet had a lower expected loss than the expected return of the free bet itself, then it would be advantageous to earn the free bet.
One theoretical possibility within the game is if you had a DP player who likes to take down his bet when a point is established—such as six or eight. If that player would instead let you buy the bet off of him, then you could do so at an advantage.***
***I’m not saying this is common or even particularly valuable. I’m simply giving you an example of a theoretical advantage that could be had completely within the game.
I've seen dark side players tell the dealer not to move their DC bet to the no 6 or no 8 as they wait for a better opportunity -- perhaps 4 or 10.
But you're right Mission it's a rare opportunity.
Frankly, I've seen dark side players get wiped out just as quickly as right side players.
Quote: AlanMendelson
Frankly, I've seen dark side players get wiped out just as quickly as right side players.
Whether someone wins or loses is irrelevant if they had a positive expectation. There are many coupon opportunities where people can get the edge on just about any table game.
Back then, there was a sense of community on that board, with member meetups almost every week, with people exchanging coupons and just being social. It was strictly amateur hour, but it was fun.
Quote: WizardIt happens once every 39346408075296537575424 rolls of the dice.
If all 7.6 billion people on earth rolled dice at a rate of one roll per second, we would see this happen once every 164 centuries.
Meanwhile, how often to people misremember things or deliberately exaggerate?
Occam's razor.
Personally, I don't understand this discussion about the report of a rare event by one member. Whether or not the event happened as reported, individuals can assess for themselves. Individual assessments probably include both qualitative (is it believable?) and quantitative (is it unlikely?) aspects. A person can believe the event true as reported, or not. However much these personal assessments pile up, imho they change nothing. No one except Alan knows the veracity of his claim.
But, Wiz, doesn't your comment confirm that we should expect to see any of those dice-roll sequences at any time. once, with equal likelihood? Don't we all agree that Alan's unlikely event is statistically possible? Can't we just tell Alan not to repeat that story for the next 164 centuries, and let it all go?
(Sigh. Of course, not a chance...)
