Oregon Lottery Video Poker

While in Oregon earlier this week I noticed some "lottery" games in a pizza restaurant near Corvalis. They were IGT Game King machines with 12 games to choose from, video poker and slots. There was an interesting game called Flush Fever, which I have started an analysis of, but let's address that another time. What I'd like to address for now is the video poker auto-hold feature. I question the advice it gives, namely its propensity to recommend holding three to a flush. Ironically, I have no software that can analyze specific hands in video poker. I can't find WinPoker and Video Poker for Winners won't install properly.

So, if anyone has such software, I'd appreciate it if you could indicate the EV of the optimal play and recommend play for the following hands. Please use the pay table for one coin bet. In case you're wondering, there is a $600 max win, so they had to cap the royals at some point, and make up for it on the lower wins. Here are some pictures I took. Click on any picture for a larger image.

Hand 1


Hand 2


Hand 3


Hand 4

edit: I think you Winpoker
I downloaded my copy from: http://www.zamzone.com/winpok6.asp
Only $30

Overall return of game = 91.056%

Hand #1:
3 to F = .4607
2 high cards = .4345

Hand #2:
3 to F = .4635
K only = .4235

Hand #3:
3 to F = .5634
KQ suited = .5533

Hand #4:
457s = .6790
44 = .6740

I hate to buy WinPoker again when I know I have a floppy disk with it somewhere.

Thanks teddy for those EVs. So, I owe the Oregon Lottery an apology, their advice was right. I agree with the return.

I concur with teddys.

Those are the results I got using the WinPoker App I have installed on my iphone.

Oddly enough the return is best with one coin instead of 5.

This is because per the state law the maximum payout is $600, this is why betting the max coins is not always a good idea. The maximum bet is also $2.

Quote: ten2win

Oddly enough the return is best with one coin instead of 5.

I'm not sure if the player can even bet 5 coins. The pay table shows 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 coins. However, maybe if you press "bet up" or "bet down" you can see the wins for 5, 6, and 7. Here is my return for 8 coins, which is better than 1 coin. Wins are relative to the amount bet. For example, the 2400 coin on an 8-coin bet is 2400/8=300x the bet.

Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Royal flush	300	379,782,144	0.000019	0.005716
Straight flush	135	2,845,015,800	0.000143	0.019268
Four of a kind	30	45,665,761,092	0.002291	0.068728
Full house	10	222,439,456,548	0.011159	0.111592
Flush	7	323,414,865,516	0.016225	0.113574
Straight	5	298,604,825,448	0.014980	0.074901
Three of a kind	3	1,409,263,774,476	0.070699	0.212098
Two pair	1	2,446,937,116,956	0.122757	0.122757
Jacks or better	1	3,807,684,569,268	0.191022	0.191022
Nothing	0	11,375,995,349,952	0.570705	0.000000
Total	0	19,933,230,517,200	1.000000	0.919656

Quote: teddys

Overall return of game = 91.056%

That does not equal the return displayed in the Wizard's post a few down from yours, but the real question is this: Is such a return, whether it be 91.056 or 91.956, a fair, good or great return?

Usually lotteries have such a high mandated payout to "education" or some other publicly acceptable lofty notion that it is absolutely impossible for a state lottery to be a reasonable bet. Its more a reasonably convenient manner of disposing of loose pocket change under conditions of deceptive dangling of a "life-changing massive payout" that is simply not likely to take place.

An alternative would be the use of a piggy bank and a once-a-year trip to a "real" casino somewhere, but this would require deferral of gratification and some sort of impulse control upon entry into convenience stores.

So how does 91.X comport with an "average" Las Vegas Casino?
Or as the Wizard might say: Is it a good bet based on the reasonably available alternatives?

Quote: Wizard

While in Oregon earlier this week I noticed some "lottery" games in a pizza restaurant near Corvalis. They were IGT Game King machines with 12 games to choose from, video poker and slots.

I assume that you were there to obtain some pizza and simply happened to notice the machines but did you form any opinion as to whether the machines were truly ancillary to the pizza sales or were a good number of people hanging about the machines and thus indicating they were primarily there to play the "slots"?

As I recall Dotty had to sell off her Oregon holdings but I don't recall the details or the final result of the proceedings.

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Quote: gofaster87

You cant really compare a lottery terminal to a Vegas VP machine ...

If the "lottery terminal" has the look and feel and overall appearance of an actual video poker machine then its return should indeed be compared to that which the player is lead to believe he is utilizing. If it is a video depiction of a roulette wheel it should be compared to roulette. If it is a video depiction of a poker game then it should be compared to a poker game.

Its the Lottery Commission that chooses the visual aspects of the device and if they pretend to be offering video poker irrespective of any fine print the game should be compared to a real game of video poker.

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Quote: gofaster87

They are nothing alike, PERIOD. Have you ever played one? The game is just a show for the underlying lottery.

What you're saying is true in some states. However, in Oregon the video poker is a true 52-card random game. As evidence, here are the Oregon Lottery regulations.

Quote: Oregon Lottery Regulation 177-200-0070 (1)-(3)

Video lottery terminals offering poker games must meet the following requirements:
(1) Standard decks of 52 playing cards shall be used. Jokers may be added to the decks if the
resulting payout percentages meet the requirements of OAR 177-200-0060.
(2) When the deck is shuffled, it must be shuffled randomly and frozen. All cards used for play
must be taken in order from the top of the deck. All cards needed for play must be stored in the
non-volatile memory of the video lottery terminal. Non-volatile memory is a device that stores
information that cannot be erased or destroyed when power is disconnected to the video lottery
terminal. The manufacturer need not represent the whole deck in memory. Shuffling is the
process of generating the cards possibly used in the play and may be conducted in any manner
that satisfies the randomness tests in OAR 177-200-0055.
(3) The program must deal the first cards in the order they are contained in the shuffled deck to
the player. For draw poker games or hands, the player must have the option to hold or discard
one or more of the cards initially drawn according to the game design. Any autohold features
that assist players in their decision as to which of the cards to hold and discard for the chance to
obtain a winning combination must be displayed. Any cards that are discarded must be replaced Page 214 of 215
by the remaining cards in the deck by a predefined process that draws any additional cards in the
order they are contained in the shuffled deck.

Source: http://www.oregonlottery.org/About/docs/10_oar_chp_177.pdf.

Quote: FleaStiff

I assume that you were there to obtain some pizza and simply happened to notice the machines but did you form any opinion as to whether the machines were truly ancillary to the pizza sales or were a good number of people hanging about the machines and thus indicating they were primarily there to play the "slots"?

That would be a correct assumption. I was there around 3:00 PM and we were the only eating customers. However there were at any given time about three people playing the machines. Most of them looked like the down and out type who should be spending what little money they have on essentials. One particular such woman came in with a toddler strapped into a stroller. The kid asked to get out but she said "No! You stay in there!" as she rummaged through her bag for some gambling money.

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That doesn't sound like the way it works in Oregon, based on the posted regs. The "all cards" that must be shuffled randomly and dealt from the top includes the jokers. At least that is the way I read those regs.

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First a note: I have never been to Oregon and have no first-hand information.

Suppose the Oregon lottery owned and operated a large number of class III machines. Would you consider them lottery terminals? Why couldn't the state lottery organization operate class III machines in the usual fashion? From reading the posted regs, that is what I think is happening there, not a bingo-type or lottery-ticket-type game.

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Quote: gofaster87

If the game is completely random how would it be considered a lottery terminal? That would make it a class III machine. Doesn't make sense. Why not just adjust the pay schedule and call it a standard Vegas gaming device.

It is all semantics. They are called "lottery terminals" because that is the loophole they used to make the games legal. Ever wonder why, in Mississippi, the slots are on "river boats" that don't float, but are built right into the ground. Simply because they were permitted on river boats. What they've done is distort the meaning of "river" and "boat" to get around the law.

Quote: CrystalMath

It is all semantics.

Much of life is.
Semantics, however, takes on a particular significance when money is involved.

The "River Boats" do not purport to sail nor do the owners hold lifeboat drills or offer sea sickness tablets. It may indeed be riverwater in that moat, but no one is deceived financially by it. No one expects a cruise or a departure and arrival time, though I understand that in the recent flooding some were worried about that. Its similar to a woman dressing up in a costume on Halloween. That doesn't mean you expect her to slip a potion into your drink. Its merely decorative "trappings" for entertainment purposes. You are not going to demand your money back because she is unable to cast a spell.

>They are called "lottery terminals" because that is the loophole they used to make the games legal.
It would seem difficult to have a "lottery" with just one person putting one coin into a machine under my understanding of what the word lottery means, though I imagine a random drawing from a known number of choices would be a lottery. I would be concerned about the appearances and therefore re-state my position that if it looks like video poker and is called video poker, it should be compared to video poker because that is what the average player will think that he is playing even if he knows nothing at all about what we shall call "real" video poker as opposed to this state-lottery version of video poker.

I wonder if this "no strategy" and "no effect" is fully disclosed and fully understood. If the pressing of a button to discard a card and receive another card is but an exercise in futility, then that should be disclosed AND understood.

So perhaps the "Pizza" establishment should be named Dotty's Pizzeria.

It seems oriented to those who are least likely to be able to afford an annual trip to Las Vegas to play a real video poker game, least able to understand that there is a difference between the "lottery version of video poker" and the "real versions of video poker", as well as being the least likely to have the facility to forsake immediate gratification for a more distant goal of any sort.

3:00pm on a weekday would often be considered normal business hours, but perhaps these people work unusual hours or perhaps they play with welfare, unemployment or other assistance money.

Quote: CrystalMath

... Ever wonder why, in Mississippi, the slots are on "river boats" that don't float, but are built right into the ground. Simply because they were permitted on river boats. ...

Actually, part of what you are relating is due to the fact that the Mississippi laws were changed.

I believe that originally all of the casinos had to be floating either in the Gulf of Mexico, connected bays, or "Mississippi River water". That last wording unintentionally (?) allowed the Tunica area casinos to be built as barges in lagoons with water drawn from the river. When that loophole was recognized, it was closed, stopping development of more casinos in the area. Then, hurricane Katrina destroyed the gulf coast, sending at least one barge casino well onto shore and on top of houses. After that, the laws were changed to allow land-based casinos, probably with restrictions that I do not know.

Quote: gofaster87

Yes they are dealt at random but the outcome is not random.The joker they talk of ensures that the winning hand to make sure the amount won is a done deal. If you throw away a card to the royal, so as that its would be impossible to get that royal, the joker will appear to create the royal and complete the hand. The moment you press the button the outcome of whether you won the lottery event or not is determined. The cards cannot represent anything different.

None of the four video poker games I saw used jokers. I also noticed no exceptions in the regulations about jokers.

When it comes to gaming, one should not get too hung up on words. In this case I think the only thing the game has to do with the "lottery" is that the profits go to a government agency called the Oregon Lottery.

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Quote: gofaster87

Your original post called these devices "lottery" machines. I assumed they were lottery terminals. They should have just been called mutli game machines. We dont call machines on an Indian reservation "Indian" machines, do we? My fault for assuming the obvious I guess. I should have known better since they were IGT machines.

That is why I put "lottery" in quotes. Sorry for the confusion. I agree, calling the machine "video lottery" is misleading. They may as well call it a Game King like they do here.

The state lottery runs the other gambling enterprises in many states. In West Virginia, they call the slot machines "video lottery terminals." They are just slots -- it is just semantics.

Every table game has a logo that says "West Virginia Lottery TABLE GAME."

West Virginia, I refered to this in an earlier thread, was the first place I saw the auto hold feature on the VP machines and I wondered how their strategy compared to optimal strategy.

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