100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 570
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Thanks for this post from:
rsactuary
November 24th, 2022 at 7:24:48 AM permalink


He held the 4 and got baby quads on the draw so $2k because he (incorrectly) held the kicker.
:o

Surprisingly, holding the 4 wasnt as bad as I thought, according to wiz's hand analyzer.
It was the 2nd best option and a close option at that.
Discard all: .31
Hold the 4: .29

Now I feel kinda like an idiot for shaking my head when he held the 4.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mission146
Mission146 
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 134
  • Posts: 15768
November 24th, 2022 at 7:32:22 AM permalink
Good for whoever it was. He's giving so much added -EV to the casino with these sorts of holds that it's nice to see whoever it is get a big Dub every one in a while. He almost certainly gave it all back within the space of a few hours, though, but at least he got that momentary burst of dopamine that he was seeking.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 570
  • Posts: 3677
November 24th, 2022 at 7:51:29 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Good for whoever it was.
He's giving so much added -EV to the casino with these sorts of holds that it's nice to see whoever it is get a big Dub every one in a while. He almost certainly gave it all back within the space of a few hours, though, but at least he got that momentary burst of dopamine that he was seeking.
link to original post

yes, great for him!

And Yeah, I can see all the small additional -ev from slightly incorrect holds adding up.

I saw a lady playing deuces wild.
She got a dealt straight with 1 wild.
She just held the 2 and whiffed on the draw.
That and other Moderate incorrect holds wiped her out quick.
(And that was with getting two 5 OaKs in less than 10 hands.)

And speaking of incorrect holds, people were probably shaking their heads at me for my holding strategy but they didn't know it's modified to chase the big progressive:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/37709-ddb-aaaa4-discarding-the-4/
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mission146
Mission146 
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 134
  • Posts: 15768
November 24th, 2022 at 8:36:25 AM permalink
Saw the post-edit OP.

Do you know what he held the four in favor of, or are you assuming that he held the four as opposed to all low cards with no possible draws?

Despite playing 9/5 TDB for dollars, I'll assume this person is otherwise not a total idiot and didn't chuck a high card, but that still doesn't necessarily make the decision better than a no-hold.

Examples:

4d 8d 9d 10c 6s

Both the inside straight draw and no hold are superior; the difference in EV with the gutshot straight draw is more significant.

Another example is 4d 2d 6s 7s 10s where the three to the double-gapped straight flush is a far superior hold.

So, without knowing what the initial hand was, I would hesitate to assume that a no hold is the best decision; thus, the sacrifice to EV may have been greater than this.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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