Talldude90
Talldude90
Joined: Aug 24, 2022
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August 24th, 2022 at 10:06:28 PM permalink
Hi,

New to this forum, but have been lurking for awhile.

I know that I am likely to get some heat for my math/conclusions so I will try to state all assumptions.

Premise:

So, trying to get Diamond Plus (25k TC with CET). This will be done during a 5x tier promotion (same coin in as DiaD). I went on my first scouting trip a few weeks ago and I don't think I was prepared because now I have more questions and the trip is less than a week away. This trip will be to Harris Cherokee Casino Resort. As I am in the Charlotte area and do not currently have any elevated tier it is cheaper (2.5 hr drive) to got to my local casino (vs the FP 100-had the other thread mentioned in reno or taho).

Promo:

Anyways, 5x promo, meaning I need to earn 5k points. Plan is DW VP. so $10 coin-in/pt Therefore 50k coin in with VP.

Min bet size for VP (based on available time):
This leads me to determine my lowest feasible bet size to be $5 which would take 16 hours.

Software:

Used WoO percentages and beatingbonuses calculator site (dunno if i am allowed to post link) and excel to come to my conclusions.

Tax's:

On Tax's I am a standard deduction player so I have to discount any wins that would W2G by 1/3 (to cover fed/state tax).

So, using the calculator (including the limited bankroll feature) I endeavored to ascertain which game would be the best based off of the following parameters:

Best = Realistic values of expected loss including tax implication and modified by amount of play time required to achieve required number of points.

Assumptions:

1. If the likelihood of getting a nRF or Duces was less than 33% (for the amount of hands needed to reach status [that would be 2,000 hands at $5 5coin 5,000 hands at $2 5 coin 10,000 hands]) then it would be ignored.
2. All win contributions for wins generating a W2G were multiplied by 0.66
3. $5 VP is 99.73%
4. $2 VP is 98.91%
5. $1 VP is 97.58% (iirc the ones i saw were 20/12/10)

Discussion:

So this resulted in no royals being able to be credited, even at 10k hands played, that's only a 23% chance of a royal ($1 VP).

This also resulted in Duces on the $5 NSUD being just barely over 33% but close enough that i ran the numbers with and without it.

So, I know the math is gong to be screwed up at this point as I just removed the return from the calculation and will be playing the games as if I am still playing to try to get a royal (therefore subject to the same variance [more variance is bad therefore leaving at the higher variance shouldnt be an issue]).

Calculation:

NSUD
Adding in tax's on nRF and Duces = 2.17% House Edge
removing the return for a royal and taxing the duces = 3.38% HE *
removing the return for a royal AND duces = 5.85% HE

Illinois Duces
Adding in tax's on nRF and Duces = 2.98% House Edge
removing the return for a royal and taxing the duces = 4.20% HE*

20/12/10 Duces
Adding in tax's on nRF = 3.04% House Edge
removing the return for a royal (duces at this scale do not trigger W2G) = 4.24% HE*

Decided to do a single coin $5 comparison to add in here (I know some of this is going to be wrong, taking 5 coin table and reducing the return for the nRF proportionally from 800 down to 250), annoyingly the nRF is still over 1200 so yeah :|

NSUD 1-Coin
Adding in tax's on nRF = 1.73% House Edge
removing the return for a royal (duces are under W2G req) = 2.11% HE*

Using the beating bonus's calculator to calculate a risk of busting down to the 1% and 5% levels for the above situations gave me the following bankroll results (to do this I just adjusted the starting bankroll till I got a 1%/5% risk of bust with the bolded house edges above.

Risk of Bust

NSUD 5 coin
1% 16,000
5% 12,550

Illinois Duces
1% 11,100
5% 8,850

20/12/10 Duces
1% 8,500
5% 6,825

1-Coin NSUD
1% 7,500
5% 5,875

After seeing this I ran a few of the bust calc's for some 10 plays to get a general idea and I would need to look into it in more detail because I do not know how to handle the tax situation (generation of W2Gs) etc.
it looked like using the 20/12/10 table for 0.25 10 play gave 1% bust at $6,820 and 5% bust at $5,470 but at $12.50 per hand

Results:

1. So, for the lowest overall expected loss it actually appears to be NSUD 1-coin (yes I know it shorts the nRF) also best of the single play for session bankroll to avoid bust before reaching required coin-in. (side point, appears to be overall better than 5-coin NSUD based off of the lower chance of tax痴 with the higher base EV ?!?!?)
2. The time required to play single coin $5 NSUD is still on the order of 16 hours.

Discussion:

More research is required in looking at the 10 play 20/12/10, it appears that it could have the lowest bankroll requirement and the shortest time (for a reasonable bankroll). Assuming it is 20/12/10 and applying that result from above for the adjusted EV for tax/s and assuming no royals might be ok as the royal chance should be higher (0.25 base denom) even though the chance at a taxable win overall is higher. This would mean if 10-play ugly duces math works then it would be a lower bankroll req and less than half the time req vs 1-coin NSUD.

Also I am not familiar with the math for % chance of being up, would love to add those numbers in.

Final thoughts:

Are there other, better games than VP to earn this status on during the 5X tier bonus that minimize trip bankroll/time required/average losses? I was wondering the situation on the E-Games such as Bubble Craps/E-blackjack/E-Bacc or E-BJ (even better if multihand) was at Cherokee and if they had a comparable -EV that would make it worthwhile. As I understand it the variance is much much lower on those machine痴 and even though the % chance of being up would be much lower, I would think the bankroll req to bring risk of bust would be significantly less, also less likely to make costly errors. Not to mention none of those games would likely lead to a W2G. I know the problem probably lies within the elevated requirements of coin-in per Tier Point, but I figured I would ask.
BillHasRetired
BillHasRetired
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
August 24th, 2022 at 10:23:13 PM permalink
Sorry, man, my head exploded about halfway through your post. I'll be at Cherokee next week as well, but in my case it's for DE status (got about 5k to go)

But I've done DiaD a lot over the past years all on VP, and here's what I have found (and your results WILL vary)
1. I play JoB. Boring, I know. Low variance, which is what I want. Known strategy and win percentage.
2. It costs me about a buck per point. So if I want 5k points, I bring 5k bux.
3. I really don't try to avoid W2-Gs, since I do session accounting and most of the time it all evens out.
4. Because of 3, I usually play the $25 denoms. Get my 5k TCs in about 2-3 hours.

Now, I know everyone's different and with different objectives. Maybe I've been of assistance. DM me if you want to meet up.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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August 24th, 2022 at 10:36:21 PM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired

Sorry, man, my head exploded about halfway through your post. I'll be at Cherokee next week as well, but in my case it's for DE status (got about 5k to go)

But I've done DiaD a lot over the past years all on VP, and here's what I have found (and your results WILL vary)
1. I play JoB. Boring, I know. Low variance, which is what I want. Known strategy and win percentage.
2. It costs me about a buck per point. So if I want 5k points, I bring 5k bux.
3. I really don't try to avoid W2-Gs, since I do session accounting and most of the time it all evens out.
4. Because of 3, I usually play the $25 denoms. Get my 5k TCs in about 2-3 hours.

Now, I know everyone's different and with different objectives. Maybe I've been of assistance. DM me if you want to meet up.
link to original post



1. I didn't see any 9/6 JoB games and idr if i saw many 8/5's or 9/5's.
2. I don't want to pay 5k for 5k points, or are you saying your bankroll for 5k points is 5k? if i was PAYing $1 per point I'd just do slots, ezpz done quick
3. iirc to do session accounting you expose yourself to risk of audit and you still have to deal with the fact that winning sessions raise your AGI even though you can offset with losing sessions, and it still only matters if you Itemize?
4. The calculated risk of busting for 25$ denoms (assuming you mean 5$ at 5 coin) is like $16k for 50K coin-in???
Joeman
Joeman 
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August 25th, 2022 at 5:37:11 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

3. iirc to do session accounting you expose yourself to risk of audit and you still have to deal with the fact that winning sessions raise your AGI even though you can offset with losing sessions, and it still only matters if you Itemize?
link to original post

WoV member MichaelBlueJay has an informative website that has a page that explains W-2G's and taxes extensively. Perhaps he will drop by and comment, but this is from that page:

Quote: Easy Vegas Tax Page

It's widely believed, quite wrongly, that you're supposed to enter the W-2G amounts as your gambling income. Many accountants get that wrong, as well as TurboTax and other tax software. (from my own experience, plus Reese Morrel Jr., CPA) The proper way to report your wins is to total your winning sessions. For proof that you don't simply transcribe the W-2G amounts, see the sources at the end of this article.


Since it sounds like you will be doing one or two sessions total to achieve your goal, you could conceivably hit a handpay and still have a losing session, and would not need to report the W2-G amount at all.

Although, the page also mentions what you noted above that this may draw the IRS's attention to your return.

Also, you have obviously done a lot of research. So you are probably already aware, but most of the high RTP machines at CET properties tend to be $25/point, rather than $10/point. So, make sure you are playing a $10/point one!

Good luck!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Talldude90
Talldude90
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August 25th, 2022 at 9:52:41 AM permalink
I've read BlueJay's article and "most" of that forum post (iirc the last few pages got thread jacked). I get the general Idea, and know that Session accounting is Technically legal (per caselaw) but I don't want to deal with using it as my main goal is to just get status 1/year and probably max out on quarter machines the rest of the year XD.

I could hit one, but if I can avoid it / can get almost as good RTP while avoiding it (by avoid I mean playing lower denom), seems like a good idea as any W2G's will probably just go straight into the taxable side for me (standard deduction).

The NSUD i'm not 100% on but the Airport (2$) duces were def 10/pt as of like 3 weeks ago.

Also contrary to VPfree2 there were LOTS of NSUD $5 machines all over the casino, the paytables change when you change denom on the ones where you can pick the games.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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August 25th, 2022 at 11:08:54 AM permalink
So I guess specifically I want to ask 3 questions, I wouldn't typically push it, but I'm heading to the casino in 3 days.

1:
Does my single line math above more or less make sense (aka if I choose to ignore royals for a short session in relation to RTP, and am trying to find a game with a lower required bankroll)?

2:
Does anyone know the points earned for e-Table games at CET/Cherokee

3:
Does anyone have a good idea about if 10-play for ugly duces is a good option if I can find a 10 play 25 cent machine? The WoO VP tax page shoes 10-play Airport duces @ $0.25 as having 0.601% subject to W2G, which would seem like to me would lower the RTP by 0.2%? I dont know what it would do to the royal chance. If it is just # of hands then 50k coin in / 1.25 (/hand) = 40k hands (meaning you would more or less expect to get 1 royal (i know over millions of 40k hand sets)) but you are only getting dealt 4k hands, you just draw out 40k hands...
BillHasRetired
BillHasRetired
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August 25th, 2022 at 11:35:21 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90



1. I didn't see any 9/6 JoB games and idr if i saw many 8/5's or 9/5's.
2. I don't want to pay 5k for 5k points, or are you saying your bankroll for 5k points is 5k? if i was PAYing $1 per point I'd just do slots, ezpz done quick
3. iirc to do session accounting you expose yourself to risk of audit and you still have to deal with the fact that winning sessions raise your AGI even though you can offset with losing sessions, and it still only matters if you Itemize?
4. The calculated risk of busting for 25$ denoms (assuming you mean 5$ at 5 coin) is like $16k for 50K coin-in???
link to original post


1. AFAIK, there are no 9/6 JoB. There are 9/5 and 8/6, usually with the $1 denom and over.

2. I have found that my annual average for earned TC (as opposed to bonused TCs) is in the $1--1TC range( this year, I'm doing about 50¢ per TC). My bonus TCs average between 3-1 (2021) and 3.5-1 (2022) per earned TC. So, for me anyway, this year I am getting about 7.5 total TCs per $1 lost gambling.

3. Now that the IRS is going to hire 87k new agents to go after everyone who thinks about shaving on their taxes, you might have a point. But I am doing session accounting regardless. Molon labe. They'll spend as much money in agent time trying to audit me as they'll make in any additional tax.

4. When I said $25 denom, I meant single coin-in of $25 (total of $125/hand). You get W2G'd on quads and above, and in Cherokee at least, it's just a single game, 8/5 Bonus Poker. Back in AC, when I did D+iaD, I was playing JoB and walked out 60% ahead. Those were great days.
calwatch
calwatch
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Thanks for this post from:
tableForOne
August 25th, 2022 at 12:32:04 PM permalink
For e-table games the RC per dollar is $50 per point. Not good, but if you play a three point dolly/molly with 3x odds at a Casino Wizard machine on craps it may compare favorably to 9/5 or 8/6 jacks or better, with lower variance due to the much lower maximum payout. You can search the threads for details. The problem is playing table games on a Casino Wizard to me is extremely boring. None of the decision making in video poker and none of the graphics and anticipation of a good video slot.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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August 25th, 2022 at 7:52:27 PM permalink
So, looking at e-Craps with 3-bet Dolly (appears to act the same way as multi-hand VP) and using the WoO Std Dev as well as the same other calcs as before, it appears that if I can assume the average 8.xx roll out is done in 30 sec on a Casino Wizard craps machine, then it would appear that with 3x-4x-5x a bankroll 7800 5% 5925 1% chance of bust, base bet at $5.
With the rounds at 30s and average bet at 151.55/30s (expected units bet times $5). This could be completed in just under 14 hours. With NO W2G chance.
The expected loss due to not discluding the Royal and the lack of possible W2G appears to make this be the best in terms of effective (including assumptions in original post) RTP.
calwatch
calwatch
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August 25th, 2022 at 8:36:42 PM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

So, looking at e-Craps with 3-bet Dolly (appears to act the same way as multi-hand VP) and using the WoO Std Dev as well as the same other calcs as before, it appears that if I can assume the average 8.xx roll out is done in 30 sec on a Casino Wizard craps machine, then it would appear that with 3x-4x-5x a bankroll 7800 5% 5925 1% chance of bust, base bet at $5.
With the rounds at 30s and average bet at 151.55/30s (expected units bet times $5). This could be completed in just under 14 hours. With NO W2G chance.
The expected loss due to not discluding the Royal and the lack of possible W2G appears to make this be the best in terms of effective (including assumptions in original post) RTP.
link to original post



To clarify a bit, the Casino Wizard is 3X odds (not 3-4-5X) and $50 a point is at my local Caesars (Harrah's SoCal). YMMV at other locations. I tried betting don't pass odds on a Casino Wizard at another of my local casinos to try a three point dolly and was unable to do so (couldn't drag the chips near the don't pass) but that may have been user error. Generally, I avoid the Casino Wizards since I find them boring, so never tried it again. But I may try it next week, along with my usual 9/5 Jacks at the two good machines, a 7/5 nickel Double Super Times Pay game that also returns ~98.5% and is kind of fun to play 10-hands at a time, and the Ugly Deuces spin poker machine at up to $45 a spin.

The last time I tried to reach 2500 RC in a day, I played 9/5 STP Jacks $30 a spin ($1 denom + $1 bonus bet), and when variance started to kill me dropped down to $25 and $15 a hand. My session bankroll was the amount of the royal, $4,000, and I was fortunate to hit a royal during the session while playing five play. When I hit it I was down around $1500 and ultimately ended up $2900 over the trip. As I itemize and am phased out of most middle income tax credits, the W2G does not affect me significantly.
AlanMendelson
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August 26th, 2022 at 3:13:50 AM permalink
I'm going to ask a more basic question: is it still worthwhile to be Diamond where you are outside of Vegas?

I don't know anyone who says being Diamond in Vegas is worthwhile anymore.

I just got a Vegas invitation for a 5X week and I have zero interest.

By the way... Turbo Tax does ask you to input non W2G wins.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 26th, 2022 at 7:20:28 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm going to ask a more basic question: is it still worthwhile to be Diamond where you are outside of Vegas?

I don't know anyone who says being Diamond in Vegas is worthwhile anymore.

I just got a Vegas invitation for a 5X week and I have zero interest.

By the way... Turbo Tax does ask you to input non W2G wins.
link to original post



I think I値l get free play and/or cash worth around $250 annually once I hit Diamond. This is online sports book. I think I値l make Diamond solely from online sports betting which has lots of +EV opportunities. I値l be in Vegas in October and if I知 short I値l add a few points from Pai Gow tiles/poker.

Are you in a state that has online sports betting?

Edit. Asking the OP, not Alan.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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August 26th, 2022 at 1:19:18 PM permalink
I am not in a state that allows online sports betting. I am about a 2 hour drive from VA though if I really want to.

I am very interested in the Atlantis trip and 25k diamond gets the resort fees waived / better room.

Same for at least 15k diamond level, allows for no resort fees at caesars properties, Cherokee is like 2.5 hours away and would be great for a few free vacations in the summer (wife is in the public school space so she has summers off).

Matching the Tier to cruise lines might get me some free cruises...

Those at minimum seem to cover the 3-800$ cost (based off of overall RTP expectations to earn 5k points during 5X)

Edit: Also if i can get some nice free play coupons I might try to soak up some free money, but kinda doubt it with only 50k coin in at VP or 250k coin in on E-Craps (wonder which would get more free play...)
calwatch
calwatch
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August 28th, 2022 at 2:46:39 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm going to ask a more basic question: is it still worthwhile to be Diamond where you are outside of Vegas?

I don't know anyone who says being Diamond in Vegas is worthwhile anymore.

I just got a Vegas invitation for a 5X week and I have zero interest.

By the way... Turbo Tax does ask you to input non W2G wins.
link to original post



Not paying resort fees and parking is worth something, although plenty of other joints give that too. Next week I am going to try for Diamond Plus, I only need 7,300 points to do it and with the 5X bonus, Quest for Rewards and the 1,000 daily tier bonus it is worth a shot despite literally driving past three casinos with better pay tables (Pechanga, Pala, and Pauma). But I like the Harrah's hotel - nice enough without feeling five star fancy - and the just right size gaming floor. I probably will take my normal play to my other locals, though.
Last edited by: calwatch on Aug 28, 2022
BillHasRetired
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August 28th, 2022 at 6:59:17 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm going to ask a more basic question: is it still worthwhile to be Diamond where you are outside of Vegas?

I don't know anyone who says being Diamond in Vegas is worthwhile anymore.

I just got a Vegas invitation for a 5X week and I have zero interest.

By the way... Turbo Tax does ask you to input non W2G wins.
link to original post


To me, the advantages of Diamond are: comp rooms, free valet, and, only in AC, the Laurel Lounge. In Vegas, it's the VIP Check-in and freebie drink tix.

Is it enough to justify the coin-in? Probably not. But the kids already have enough of an inheritance, and as for the rest, that's for my wife and I to spend on entertainment.
Talldude90
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August 28th, 2022 at 7:13:51 PM permalink
Having trouble finding a casino wizard, probably not worth it though, bubble craps is $200 per TC
calwatch
calwatch
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August 28th, 2022 at 7:17:17 PM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

Having trouble finding a casino wizard, probably not worth it though, bubble craps is $200 per TC
link to original post



Ouch, then maybe go back to your video poker plan?
Talldude90
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August 28th, 2022 at 7:59:00 PM permalink
Yeah, it was close for 50/pt not for 200 also the 5$ electric table with one pit crew person (I forget the word, I don't think it's dealer for craps w/e) is the same 200, kinda wanna verify video bj, but I'm not as skilled (read practiced). Also all the VP tables on 10 play are absolute crap, even at higher denom Max seemed to be bout 97%
100xOdds
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August 30th, 2022 at 4:31:02 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm going to ask a more basic question: is it still worthwhile to be Diamond where you are outside of Vegas?

I don't know anyone who says being Diamond in Vegas is worthwhile anymore.

I just got a Vegas invitation for a 5X week and I have zero interest.

By the way... Turbo Tax does ask you to input non W2G wins.
link to original post

Base Diamond, yes to avoid resort fees.
Diamond Plus is not worth it anymore because they got rid of the Diamond Lounges.

With the 5x tier credit multiplier days, it's easier to get to the level to remove resort fees than to the same lvl as MGM
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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August 30th, 2022 at 4:35:00 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

I am not in a state that allows online sports betting. I am about a 2 hour drive from VA though if I really want to.

I am very interested in the Atlantis trip and 25k diamond gets the resort fees waived / better room.

Same for at least 15k diamond level, allows for no resort fees at caesars properties, Cherokee is like 2.5 hours away and would be great for a few free vacations in the summer (wife is in the public school space so she has summers off).

Matching the Tier to cruise lines might get me some free cruises...

Those at minimum seem to cover the 3-800$ cost (based off of overall RTP expectations to earn 5k points during 5X)

Edit: Also if i can get some nice free play coupons I might try to soak up some free money, but kinda doubt it with only 50k coin in at VP or 250k coin in on E-Craps (wonder which would get more free play...)
link to original post

Cherokee has $5 ~99.6% deuces wild. ($25/spin)
best vp in all of caesars at $10 per tc.

high variance if you're playing that at 5x tier multiplier day just for base diamond (15k tc).
Not that many spins.
nevertheless, i would play it in a heart beat
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Aug 30, 2022
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Talldude90
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August 30th, 2022 at 6:19:06 AM permalink
The variance got to me on even the $2 airport duces. I switched over to like 96% 0.25 10 play and my money lasted much longer to finish off the second half of the point run. I decided to stop at regular diamond as the biggest benefit would be no Atlantis daily resort fee and if I really want I can work on that next year.
100xOdds
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August 30th, 2022 at 6:27:21 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

The variance got to me on even the $2 airport duces. I switched over to like 96% 0.25 10 play and my money lasted much longer to finish off the second half of the point run. I decided to stop at regular diamond as the biggest benefit would be no Atlantis daily resort fee and if I really want I can work on that next year.
link to original post

The Atlantis benefit for Diamonds was great when it first came out.
then they nerfed it the next year.

Now it's eh
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SOOPOO
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August 30th, 2022 at 6:34:59 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

The variance got to me on even the $2 airport duces. I switched over to like 96% 0.25 10 play and my money lasted much longer to finish off the second half of the point run. I decided to stop at regular diamond as the biggest benefit would be no Atlantis daily resort fee and if I really want I can work on that next year.
link to original post



Well then congrats! I知 still 3000+ points away. Hopefully won稚 創eed to gamble much in October to get there.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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August 30th, 2022 at 12:37:45 PM permalink
If you are close the 5x TC bonus is active Right Now.

I might just go for 10 play for all of the next time I earn credit (or 100 play if i can get to lake Tahoe). The variance is painful even at $10/hand airport duces.

@100xodds what's the catch with the Atlantis stay now?

Also, update. I got the 5000 TC bonus for 2500 in a day (just now credited) and the players desk this morning said the 5x bonus (4x times amount earned in 5x event) will credit middle of September. So it appears you can double dip.
BillHasRetired
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August 31st, 2022 at 12:15:50 AM permalink
"Double Dip" = the Daily Tier Credit bonus: 500TC gets 125 TCB, 1000 gets 1000, 2500 gets 5000, 5000TC in one day gets 10,000. That's the standard "Diamond in a Day" move--getting it on the Daily TCB.

The only thing the thoroughly mis-labeled "5X Tier Credit Bonus" does is add another 4x of the TCs earned (without the Daily TCB) to your total. Thus, if you earn 5000TC during a 5x promo, you'll end up scoring a total of 35k TC. I've done that about three times already.

CET LV put out an ad saying something about another 5xTC promo in mid-October. Not worth the flight if I've got to pay for it. However, if you can snag one of those $35 flights on Caesars Air to Laughlin, it might be worth the 90+ mile drive to LV to score some more TCs.

Frankly, I'd wait for the Christmas 5xTC--they always run these promos over major religious holidays: Christmas and Easter. Irritating. But I'm glad they've got the one this week.
calwatch
calwatch
Joined: Feb 7, 2010
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September 1st, 2022 at 2:13:13 AM permalink
So I earned the necessary 1,250 credits for me to make Diamond Plus at Rincon. I played mostly 9/5 jacks or better but got in my 25 credits at slots and also played a little bit of the better, although I don't know the strategy without looking at the card, Airport Deuces Spin Poker and some of the nickel 7/5 super times pay bonus poker that is also around the 98.4% range. I also verified the Casino Wizard can do odds on don't pass and don't come, offered $50 per credit on each bet including don't pass and odds, and played the three point molly and dolly at $5 a base bet. The molly is very volatile because of the seven out taking away everything on the table, but it is also more fun because of the volatility. Playing the dolly (don't pass and don't come), my bankroll stayed pretty stable because a seven out would result in everything paying. It also felt better to not lose $60 on a 7. I earned points fairly slowly because of the number of rolls for bet resolution, also the RCs do not post when the $20 on a rolled number is taken but when the entire sequence ends (a seven is rolled) for some reason. It did appear that the pay outs were accurate.

If you played for $25 as a base bet ($25 + $75 don't pass odds) it is a fairly easy way to earn RC quickly - about as quickly as me playing 9/5 jacks triple play at $15 a spin - while being mildly volatile. According to simulations, you are likely to make a profit. https://pages.stat.wisc.edu/~kent/blog/2021.10.24/dark-side-surprises.html

Running the system is also fairly easy. The problem is that it is boring because of the limited volatility. I got more excitement out of the 20 minutes I played a three reel slot to earn my Quest of Rewards badge than the same amount of time I played the Casino Wizard. I don't particularly like high volatility video poker that plays even money for two pair, but also have graduated from $1.25 a spin and prefer to play about $10-15 a spin, either on dollar triple play or quarter 10 play. I did not get my share of quads and lost $800 for the trouble of making 1,250 credits (about $900 if you count the day's free play), with all of that loss coming on video poker. I was up $200 playing the dolly with a decent run when I used a $25 base bet and broke even on the slot machine. I had brought $3,000 to the casino and my lowest point was down $1200. Usually, when doing 2500 RC runs, I try to bring the amount of a royal flush to avoid busting out.

This will probably be it for video poker play at Caesars for the rest of the year. I will use my Diamond Plus privileges in Vegas to comp myself and friends with drinks and free rooms, and bet on table games the rest of the time.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 1st, 2022 at 10:42:53 AM permalink
Yeah, now that I've made diamond, I figure I'll try make tier next year at a different location (hopefully the flight packages won't get nerfed without a significant amount of coin in, in the next 8mo), the quarter VP (for duces or JoB) at Cherokee are at like 95% return. The bubble craps are 200/TC and I don't have the bankroll for $5/coin NSUD.

A couple things, I was the only one I saw the whole time with a stragety card on me... And Illinois duces at $2/coin can lose a lot of money in a short period of time. I think I lost $1,300 earning about the same number of base points. Only got 1 wild royal that whole time, and only a handful of straight flushes. Earned 1400 more losing only 300 on quarter 10 play 95% duces, though I got a couple duces.

Would love to play a 10 or higher # of hands quarter version (or lower) that has an actual good payable, feels like it would of cost me way less. 1300 points at 1300 loss is $1 a point which correlates to RTP of 90%. Though 1 duces and I'd of been ahead I guess, though at 2 per coin that would of been w2g and I don't have enough deductions to itemize.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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September 1st, 2022 at 2:49:20 PM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

Yeah, now that I've made diamond, I figure I'll try make tier next year at a different location.
I don't have the bankroll for $5/coin NSUD.
link to original post

You're still going to be putting in the same coin-in ($25k) to reach base diamond so you do have the bankroll.
Might as well play the best game for that $25k you're putting through the machine?

on 5x tc day:
2500tc + 5k bonus tc + 10k from the 5x (actually 4x) tc multiplier = 17.5k

i think you mean you don't like the variance of $5 nsud?
($25k is only 1000 spins on $5 nsud= 2hrs @ 500hands/hr)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 1st, 2022 at 3:53:01 PM permalink
I was alluding to the fact that the session bankroll for NSUD, to have a 1%<= chance of bust for 50k coin-in (see my initial post), is higher than my loss tolerance. And apparently $2 airport duces is also with 1300 lost in about 3 hours (only halfway to goal). Though, if they have another 5x event, i might finish off diamond plus as I will only be 1k away (5x day).
100xOdds
100xOdds
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September 2nd, 2022 at 5:56:31 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

I was alluding to the fact that the session bankroll for NSUD, to have a 1%<= chance of bust for 50k coin-in (see my initial post), is higher than my loss tolerance. And apparently $2 airport duces is also with 1300 lost in about 3 hours (only halfway to goal). Though, if they have another 5x event, i might finish off diamond plus as I will only be 1k away (5x day).
link to original post

Lets see:
var (deuces) = 25
st dev (sd) = 5
sd of $25/spin = 125
sd (1k spins) = 3953

ev (nsud)= $25k x .0027 = -$67.50 +/- $3953

that's 1 sd.
I guess 3sd would be +/- $11859.
So you would need to bring $11859 for .3% chance of bust.
Personally, I would just bring $8k for 5% chance of bust


Mathletes: Is my math right?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 3rd, 2022 at 4:09:28 PM permalink
I got $12,550 for 50,000 coin-in using beatingbonuses calculator. $16,000 for 1% RoR. Thing is, from what i've personally experienced, the variance is quite painull, being 1 SD away at 4-5k down is not just a shrug/whatever. Also, it's not a normal distribution. The application of the standard formulas and conclusions will give different results than expected. Also with only 2000 spins the distribution will be even more skewed. I'm personally sold on doing lower denom high multi hand play. The bankroll requirements are much smaller, the game is somewhat more interesting, and with the many hands the chances are higher to get closer to the actual EV (or it feels that way at least).
DogHand
DogHand
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September 4th, 2022 at 2:10:41 PM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

duces
link to original post


Talldude90,

"deuces"

Dog Hand
Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 4th, 2022 at 10:44:40 PM permalink
DogHand,

thankee,

Hoss
DRich
DRich
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September 5th, 2022 at 5:59:28 AM permalink
My wife and I used to both do the $50k coin in in one day so Caesar's would consider us $50k a day players. The comps and offers were great.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 5th, 2022 at 7:42:29 AM permalink
Yeah, I'd imagine the ADT would look very enticing to marketing. Kinda wish I'd of made it to 50k coin in.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 5th, 2022 at 9:08:59 AM permalink
I've been reading how many of you will be using the various tier point promotions and multipliers advertised by Caesars.

If you use these promotions I strongly suggest that you use your cell phones to take photos of the displays of your play and your kiosk swipes and check-ins for these promotions.

My ex wife Janet who passed away in July was always using these promotions but found that too often Caesars never credited her properly. She wrote letters, made phone calls, and hounded Caesars rewards without any response from them. She called it a total waste of time because there was no one who would respond. She was a Vegas local and when she went to the Rewards desk at Flamingo, Caesars, Rio they would only take her name and phone number and would never get even a call back.

She was the highest Diamond level.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 5th, 2022 at 9:12:43 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

My wife and I used to both do the $50k coin in in one day so Caesar's would consider us $50k a day players. The comps and offers were great.
link to original post



When was this? I recall Caesars barring joint accounts because they were tired of participating and responding to subpoenas in divorce cases and dealing with the separation of tier and comp points.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 5th, 2022 at 9:29:02 AM permalink
I mean I checked at the rewards desk before I left and they said it will post by the 15th. Maybe I'll have issues, don't know, but it seems it's all digital at this point (or at the very minimum the daily bonus is).
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 5th, 2022 at 9:55:43 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

I mean I checked at the rewards desk before I left and they said it will post by the 15th. Maybe I'll have issues, don't know, but it seems it's all digital at this point (or at the very minimum the daily bonus is).
link to original post



Stay on top of this. She was always told they would post but never did.

Then no one would respond when she tried to talk to someone.
DRich
DRich
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Thanks for this post from:
AlanMendelson
September 5th, 2022 at 10:24:50 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

My wife and I used to both do the $50k coin in in one day so Caesar's would consider us $50k a day players. The comps and offers were great.
link to original post



When was this? I recall Caesars barring joint accounts because they were tired of participating and responding to subpoenas in divorce cases and dealing with the separation of tier and comp points.
link to original post



We did not have joint accounts. We each did the $50k on separate accounts on the same day.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
MDawg
MDawg
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September 5th, 2022 at 11:32:02 AM permalink
As far as what it takes to get to a higher tier status, I got there via table game play.

As far as what you get when you arrive, it really depends on what offers are available. At the moment, as a Seven Star, I have tons of free stays with free play offers. I'm logged in and scrolling through rows and rows of them. In such cases the free play is of interest to me, the stays, not really. Generally with Caesars I just have the host book a standard room and might not even enter it, similar to what I do at Red Rock, except there 1 night suffices while at Caesars they usually want 3 nights to qualify for the offer. If we actually want to stay at Caesars, I qualify for a huge suite for practically an indefinite stay anyway, which is why the free room offer doesn't mean much once you get to the highest levels, unless you plan to burn them up and not play at all.

(I assume that no matter what upper level you achieve, once there as long as you keep playing the free hotel stays won't mean that much to you, because you'll be able to stay free anyway.)

There are concerts and Raiders games listed too, for free tickets, but again, not anything we can't get anytime anyway, and for the most part won't even go unless going to be in the casino suite.

I see a gift giveaway without noting what the gift is - doesn't sound too good.

Anyway, I have someone who keeps tabs on all these and alerts me of the juiciest offers at all the casinos. I don't have time to do all that myself, too busy concentrating on winning at the tables when I am in Vegas, and too busy working on non-casino matters whether I am in Vegas or not.

Over all, it seems like Caesars had better promotions with better giveaways earlier in the year. But the free play offers are consistent.
I tell you it痴 wonderful to be here, man. I don稚 give a damn who wins or loses. It痴 just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 5th, 2022 at 1:21:22 PM permalink
Mdawg with all respect this thread doesn't apply to you.

Frankly I'm surprised you're only Seven Stars.

You should have a "Committee of One" card which is reserved for the whales.
MDawg
MDawg
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September 5th, 2022 at 2:12:15 PM permalink
Unless you're planning to achieve a level and then just rest on your Laurels (but not in a Lounge 🤩 - all closed), the level achieved doesn't mean as much as all that, is my point.

One guy has an Amex green and is good to go for $150,000. a month the other a platinum and gets a Call Center to grill him if he tries to charge over ten grand at once, is my point. What's in a name, anyway?
I tell you it痴 wonderful to be here, man. I don稚 give a damn who wins or loses. It痴 just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Talldude90
Talldude90
Joined: Aug 24, 2022
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September 6th, 2022 at 10:57:59 PM permalink
And visited by the MDawg, I don't think this thread is up to your personality level my man. I enjoy reading your posts, but there is no system here, only how to lose the least based off of expected loss to get the benefits that I would like to use. I'm not sitting here expecting to get full comps for everything for 25k TC earned. Would be nice, but I know better.
Talldude90
Talldude90
Joined: Aug 24, 2022
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September 15th, 2022 at 7:26:04 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Talldude90

I mean I checked at the rewards desk before I left and they said it will post by the 15th. Maybe I'll have issues, don't know, but it seems it's all digital at this point (or at the very minimum the daily bonus is).
link to original post



Stay on top of this. She was always told they would post but never did.

Then no one would respond when she tried to talk to someone.
link to original post



Hasn't posted as of yet. I called them earlier today and they said wait till midnight and call back tomorrow if it still hadn't posted. >.>

I have no problem giving someone a problem about this, I put in a lot of play in a short period of time ONLY because of the promo, they are going to need to make this right or I may just say screw Caesars (i know i would not be welcome back after) and take them to small claims court over it (they keep their tier credits I get my losses back). It only takes a "to convince a reasonable person" 's level of proof in small claims and I have the email, a pic of the machine saying I earned the points on that day and the whole thing of getting a hotel room there specifically during that event just after receiving the email about said event. I would not have made that trip nor wagered the way I did without the promotion, and not honoring the promotion would be false advertising that directly led to the losses during the promotional period. I've represented myself in small claims before when someone tried to screw me, they had an lawyer (provided by their insurance), I had the facts, they lost.

Don't get me wrong I will give them time and phone calls, might even wait till I get back there in November, but after that it better be credited or I will take action.

Talldude90
Talldude90
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Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
September 17th, 2022 at 11:47:49 AM permalink
As an update, all bonus points have been credited. =)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 17th, 2022 at 12:29:23 PM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

As an update, all bonus points have been credited. =)
link to original post



Good to hear. By the way. Over 64粕? I知 putting th O/U on your height at 6 5.
I値l be in Vegas in a few weeks looks like needing around 2k points to make it to Diamond. It will be 5x bonus days. I wonder how long at $25 at Pai Gow that will be? Probably like 10 hours!
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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September 17th, 2022 at 1:30:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Talldude90

As an update, all bonus points have been credited. =)
link to original post



Good to hear. By the way. Over 64粕? I知 putting th O/U on your height at 6 5.
I値l be in Vegas in a few weeks looks like needing around 2k points to make it to Diamond. It will be 5x bonus days. I wonder how long at $25 at Pai Gow that will be? Probably like 10 hours!
link to original post



You will need to make sure it is 5x Tier points and not just reward points. Caesar's tends to intermix those bonuses.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 17th, 2022 at 1:44:53 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Talldude90

As an update, all bonus points have been credited. =)
link to original post



Good to hear. By the way. Over 64粕? I知 putting th O/U on your height at 6 5.
I値l be in Vegas in a few weeks looks like needing around 2k points to make it to Diamond. It will be 5x bonus days. I wonder how long at $25 at Pai Gow that will be? Probably like 10 hours!
link to original post



You will need to make sure it is 5x Tier points and not just reward points. Caesar's tends to intermix those bonuses.
link to original post



Specifically says Tier points in the offer. I got to bet some more +EV stuff on Caesars today so I知 edging closer!
Talldude90
Talldude90
Joined: Aug 24, 2022
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September 17th, 2022 at 4:46:35 PM permalink
I wish Caesars sports book had that automatic 10 point ahead at any time win thing.

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