chance of bankruptcy

Hi, I wonder what is the chance of bankruptcy in this situation : Bank= 20000 ; flat bet =10 ; the game = joker poker K or better
return = 99,3% + 1% in bonuses and other things = 100,3%
Payout
Natural Royal Flush 9,500
Five of a Kind 2,000
Wild Royal Flush 1,000
Straight Flush 500
Four of a Kind 180
Full House 70
Flush 50
Straight 30
Three of a Kind 20
Two Pair 10
Kings or Better 10
return = 0.993193

Quote: justreg76

Hi, I wonder what is the chance of bankruptcy in this situation : Bank= 20000 ; flat bet =10 ; the game = joker poker K or better
return = 99,3% + 1% in bonuses and other things = 100,3%
Payout
Natural Royal Flush 9,500
Five of a Kind 2,000
Wild Royal Flush 1,000
Straight Flush 500
Four of a Kind 180
Full House 70
Flush 50
Straight 30
Three of a Kind 20
Two Pair 10
Kings or Better 10
return = 0.993193
link to original post

BR = 20000/10 = 2000 units
ev = 0.3%
Variance = 5.9^2 = 34.81
Bet size = 1 unit

k = Kelly ratio = 5.9^2 * 100/0.3/2000 = 5.8017

Long term ROR = e^(-2/k) = 0.7084 = 70.84% !


In order to reduce ROR to 1.83%, k=0.5, your BR :-

ev/Var * BR * k = Bet size
0.3/34.81/100 * BR * 0.5 = 1
BR = 23207 units = $ 232,070

thank you very much!!!
Just wonder how did you get the Variance formula, I'm not good enough in mathematics and probabilities, just know the simple basics.

Variance can be calculated based on each hand probability and payout

Thank you!

HI, I'm back again. I wonder about my results after 271000 hands :
Straight Flush 110 times, ???
Wild Royal Flush 30 times ,
Five of a Kind 20 times,
Natural Royal Flush 3 times. ???

I think Straight Flush should come arround 158 times , and Natural Royal Flush 7 times for these number of hands.
I worry about the software manipulation or it is normal bad run ??
Is it possible the auto holder to be the reason of bad run too - It does not pick all the hands according to basic strategy.
examples:

Pick only Ks in AsKs x x x hands

does not hold:
open ended straight draw
3 for a strtaight flush
2 suited for Royal

Hands in upper part of the basic strategy table are auto holded correctly

I have 2% bonus for turnover and theoretical return 99.3% which should take me in positive 101.3% return in long run, but reality is negative :(
Is it normal bad run ?