Ultimate X

I will be going on a trip for 5 days to my favorite casino soon and plan to play 5 play Ultimate X for quarters. The game I will play will be the 9/6 DDB variety. The play I am planning will have a slight edge of about .1% I plan to do about 150K coin in over the 5 days on this play. In a worst case scenario, how much could I potentially lose? Put another way, with 95% confidence, what is the most I would lose? I can do this myself for regular VP games but cannot for Ultimate X. Anyone have any thoughts on this? Thank you in advance.

20k if you run bad

Quote: Simon23

I will be going on a trip for 5 days to my favorite casino soon and plan to play 5 play Ultimate X for quarters. The game I will play will be the 9/6 DDB variety. The play I am planning will have a slight edge of about .1% I plan to do about 150K coin in over the 5 days on this play. In a worst case scenario, how much could I potentially lose? Put another way, with 95% confidence, what is the most I would lose? I can do this myself for regular VP games but cannot for Ultimate X. Anyone have any thoughts on this? Thank you in advance.

Where are you getting the .1 percent from- you could easily be way under that unless you have an almost impossible perfect strategy without a single mistake - On 150 k coin in on ux Gwae is right you could EASILY BE down 20k if not more

The other question I have is what is the "realistic" return of that game. Realistic return meaning the EV of the game without hands that have a higher frequency of hitting than the dealt royal flush (~1 in 650K). I'm not a min cost royal "truther" but If those hands were eliminated from the return (like a dealt royal or AWAK after a straight or higher) what would the EV be then? I know this goes against the orthodoxy of what is discussed here but I tend to completely discount those hands because I am a short run player (meaning I play only about 5-10 times a year) and likely will never see those hands. Thoughts?

Quote: Simon23

The other question I have is what is the "realistic" return of that game. Realistic return meaning the EV of the game without hands that have a higher frequency of hitting than the dealt royal flush (~1 in 650K). I'm not a min cost royal "truther" but If those hands were eliminated from the return (like a dealt royal or AWAK after a straight or higher) what would the EV be then? I know this goes against the orthodoxy of what is discussed here but I tend to completely discount those hands because I am a short run player (meaning I play only about 5-10 times a year) and likely will never see those hands. Thoughts?

said another way... what's the return between Royals? (doesn't quite work perfectly with UX since not all royals are equal).

His .1% has to be coming from comps or cash back, because I don't think the manufacturer created any +EV pay tables.

I put $400,000 plus through and ran at about -3%. It is a vile, vile game.

Quote: teddys

I put $400,000 plus through and ran at about -3%. It is a vile, vile game.

That would be fine for me (-4500) on my 150K coin in. The thing I am worried about would be the 10 percent loss and I have no way to quantify how likely that could be. Sure, if things run really badly I could drop 20k (I would probably stop at about 10k) on this play but how likely is that? This is my dilemna.