Calculating this promo offer

ok I have a promo offer for "BET $150 get $5 FREE PLAY"

the best game available is DW 25/15/9/4/4/3 which has a return of 98.91%

So based solely off the return of the game....

150 * .9891 = 148.36 + (5 * .9891 = 4.94) = $153.30
for $3.30 theoretical profit.

What I want to know is how do I calculate the actual probability of coming out ahead in the 124 hands it would take to play out this offer at $1.25 a hand?

Quote: darthxaos

ok I have a promo offer for "BET $150 get $5 FREE PLAY"

the best game available is DW 25/15/9/4/4/3 which has a return of 98.91%

So based solely off the return of the game....

150 * .9891 = 148.36 + (5 * .9891 = 4.94) = $153.30
for $3.30 theoretical profit.

What I want to know is how do I calculate the actual probability of coming out ahead in the 124 hands it would take to play out this offer at $1.25 a hand?

You could program the simulator at BeatingBonuses.com in accordance with the paytable and probabilities. Just program it for 124 hands at 1 unit per hand.

To me that sounds like a horrible promotion. Play $150 and get $5 free play? I'd be offended if I got an "offer" like that. And I thought my local Casino making us pay $5 to get $5 in free play eas bad.

Quote: Kentry

To me that sounds like a horrible promotion. Play $150 and get $5 free play? I'd be offended if I got an "offer" like that. And I thought my local Casino making us pay $5 to get $5 in free play eas bad.

I understand that $5 is not a huge sum of money, but play $5 and get $5 is awesome percentage-wise. You're lucky to get a 100% Loss Rebate on anything which means you'd have to lose $5 to get $5 FP, and even that would offer a tremendous player advantage.

Play $5 get $5 puts you at an advantage on anything you touch. You'd be at an advantage even on some lottery drawings with that kind of offer.

Kentry , I thought you wised up about complaining about $5 for $5. I expected by now you'd come back with "the catch is this" ... like $5 is the max they give you.

Presumably $150 to get $5 is unlimited.

Usually VP cannot be used for the freeplay methinks, so that is good too.

PS: running $150 in most places might get you 150 points, each point worth little or nearly nothing, sometimes a tenth of a penny.

Quote: Mission146

...play $5 and get $5 is awesome percentage-wise....

Here in the UK Coral quite often offer a great value bet (max £5) for new customers. A famous one a few years ago was that Man Utd would have a corner - a true odds on bet. It's not always a gimme, recently they offered a bet on Chelsea, who against all odds drew!
http://freebets.org/blog/coral-are-giving-away-money-yet-again-51-manchester-united-wina-corner
http://bettingoffers.co/coral-offer-6-to-1-chelsea-to-beat-newcastle/