Avincow
Avincow
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:16:38 PM permalink
With even the best pay table (100.76% with deuces wild) I can only make $1.25 * .0076 * 1000 hands/hr = $9.5/hr. Big whoop, slightly better than mc'donalds! And that's assuming 1000 hands per hour which is supposedly really fast. Why bother when I can make some real money at the blackjack tables. And I don't have to sit for 40 hours or whatever the average amount of time to see a royal is. I don't even want to think about the variance in video poker, the swings in blackjack already are enough for me. I mean really, If I played $1 jacks or better, how much can I go in the hole before I hit the royal? I assume it's easy to miss a 'cycle' so I could be $10,000 in the hole while chasing a $4000 jackpot.

I guess I need to factor in comps, but they only have limited value to me. Say I get a comp for a $30 buffet. If I only eat $10 worth of food (I eat a lot of small meals, but can't eat a lot in one sitting), that buffet is only worth $10 to me. So that extra $20 is now negative ev. I would rather earn $30 from blackjack, spend $10 on chipotle, and pocket the remaining $20.

Onto cash back. It seems like most places are $10 coin in for a point, 100 pooints for $1 free slot play. So what is that, an extra .1% of ev? That doesn't seem like much to me.

So what am I missing here? I didn't really find a lot of info on the web like there is for blackjack. Of course there's some strategies on certain games and a bunch of common sense advice like always play with a players card.

The reason I ask all this is because I got offered some free rooms at mlife properties. I want to keep getting room offers, but people keep saying playing blackjack rated is a bad idea. But of course, if I am just gunna be sitting around grinding away for a minimum wage pay, I'd rather just pay for a motel and focus on my blackjack.
FleaStiff
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:25:37 PM permalink
If you are retired, living on Social security, eleven dollars an hour sure beats Walmart and you get movies, buffets and a nearby pharmacy and a place to cash your checks.
mcallister3200
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:26:32 PM permalink
Some places give you good freeplay amounts for X amount of play, takes trial and error or friends to find out how much and where, and can ddepend on your address and ability to pick up offers for it to be worthwhile. Also sometimes can be profitable with promotions. It's one of those things you're not going to find the blueprint for on the internet. And your 100%+ games you aren't going to get squat for comps/mailers either. You're not beating the games, you beat the marketing department.
Greasyjohn
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:26:55 PM permalink
VP is fun and has a lot of strategy. If you play at a casino bar free drinks come often and you can socialize. Getting a royal is a blast. Getting two quads in 20 hands is a blast. You can play at your own pace.

Once I was playing at the bar at the Golden Nugget. It was 7/5 Bonus Poker. I didn't really care because it's a nice enviornments and the drinks are better. I could have gone next door to the Four Queens and found 9/6 Jacks. But like I said, better drinks and a nicer enviornment. I was only going to play 20 or 30 minutes anyway. A lady sits down right next to me and starts playing. I couldn't help but notice that she played pretty good. Now, the bar had lots of open seats, so why did she pick a seat right next to me? Well, I said something like "Are you winning?" That started a nice conversation. It didn't really lead anywhere, but it was nice...

I know someone is going to say that she was working, so let me assure you that that wasn't the case. She was a flight attendant with a layover in Vegas. She told my that she's never had a royal. Anyway, it was just nice to visit with an attractive woman.
mcallister3200
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:32:10 PM permalink
One thing that's definitely not so great are its high variance with your ev tied up in a few high paying hands, and carries a low certainty equivalence depending on your bankroll when you have to wait up to 6 months to get and redeem most offers from a play(time value of money reinvestment). And you're also depending on the future goodwill of the casino, that they won't flag your account for style of play or just dumb luck, or the way their marketing works.
Zcore13
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:34:26 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow

With even the best pay table (100.76% with deuces wild) I can only make $1.25 * .0076 * 1000 hands/hr = $9.5/hr. Big whoop, slightly better than mc'donalds! And that's assuming 1000 hands per hour which is supposedly really fast. Why bother when I can make some real money at the blackjack tables.



How are you going to make your real money at the blackjack tables? What limits do you plan on wagering? 100.76% is a positive expectation game. How do you expect to make Blackjack, a negative expectation game, into a positive?


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Face
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Face
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February 11th, 2015 at 7:50:57 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

If you are retired, living on Social security, eleven dollars an hour sure beats Walmart and you get movies, buffets and a nearby pharmacy and a place to cash your checks.



And you can't get drunk flipping burgers or greeting folks at a box store.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
Avincow
Avincow
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February 11th, 2015 at 8:00:09 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

How are you going to make your real money at the blackjack tables? What limits do you plan on wagering? 100.76% is a positive expectation game. How do you expect to make Blackjack, a negative expectation game, into a positive?


ZCore13



See that's the thing. I have developed a system where I can consistently make money at the blackjack tables. As soon as I make $100-$500 at the table, I get up and leave. You have to know when to quit. That's what variance is all about. For example if I win 3 in a row, I need to drop my bet. Once I lose a hand, I can then push out the big bets again. In my experience, it is very hard to win more than 3 in a row, so I try not to push my luck. Another tip I have is that if the dealer gets blackjack, that means I leave immediately. The dealer is hot, so it is hard to make money at such a table. Like I said, you have to know when to leave. I estimate that I'm making $100/hr at multi deck, $200 at the double deck, and even more at the single deck. Now I know why the Cortez is so sweaty!

Lol, jk, I'm actually keeping count. I'm usually playing $15 and $25 tables. According to cvcx im making 1-2 units per hour. More if I'm playing heads up.
Greasyjohn
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February 11th, 2015 at 8:05:16 PM permalink
You really had me going. I'd say you're a really funny guy. But then. you'd say, "Funny how...?" (Goodfellas)
RogerKint
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February 11th, 2015 at 8:40:56 PM permalink
VP can be fun... especially if you come across NSUD with 1 percent cashback available at the $5 and $25 denominations.
100% risk of ruin
Dieter
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February 11th, 2015 at 9:01:17 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow

It seems like most places are $10 coin in for a point, 100 pooints for $1 free slot play. So what is that, an extra .1% of ev? That doesn't seem like much to me.



... and once you get to a certain coin in (or theo) for a time period, the marketing department sends you offers like free slot play, which you can run off on the VP machines.

Someone else said it, it's not about beating the game, it's about beating marketing. This game is an avenue to do that.

Also, if you're patient enough to go vulturing, it's seriously +EV, but sporadic. Vulturing is an amazing way to run off free slot play.

My local place is actually .2% on the free slot play (or cash back). ($10 coin = 1 point, 500 points = $10 FSP or cash) Still not enough to make it worthwhile on its own, but the marketing department's FSP (and other) offers are.
May the cards fall in your favor.
RS
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February 11th, 2015 at 9:13:26 PM permalink
Because you can get excellent mail at some casinos. Most +EV video poker plays aren't from grinding out a 100.76% FPDW machine, but by putting in -EV action and getting way more in +EV mailers.

Plus, you can put in a huge amount of action in a short period of time. I've gotten to the top tier (or 2nd to top) in just a few hours at many casinos.
Avincow
Avincow
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February 11th, 2015 at 9:24:56 PM permalink
ah, i think I get it now.

I wasn't considering the mailers. When I get mailers for my blackjack play, it's always something stupid like $10 in promo chips. So the video poker mailers will be better I'm assuming.

Kind of seems like a leap of faith though. How can i know which casinos give the good mailers? Should I play for an hour, see if I get any good mailers, and then decide if I should continue video poking the place? Guess I will give it a shot!
mcallister3200
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February 11th, 2015 at 10:15:12 PM permalink
It's either trial and error, in which case there's a good chance your -ev if you aren't selective and wait for a good promotion, or sharing information with friends. No one is really jumping to give that info away. Even if a place has decent mail, it's often only good if you give a certain range of play, again either trial and error or networking.
RS
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February 11th, 2015 at 10:26:40 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow

ah, i think I get it now.

I wasn't considering the mailers. When I get mailers for my blackjack play, it's always something stupid like $10 in promo chips. So the video poker mailers will be better I'm assuming.

Kind of seems like a leap of faith though. How can i know which casinos give the good mailers? Should I play for an hour, see if I get any good mailers, and then decide if I should continue video poking the place? Guess I will give it a shot!



Trial and error. Play big once, then don't play at all until you get your mail.

I don't know if this has any merit, but when testing a place out, I'll look for what kind of action they might be expecting. Look at how many points are needed for the next tier level, that might be a range you want to play to. Or if there's some sort of limit on a promo, play to that limit (unless it's some absurd number).
Avincow
Avincow
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March 22nd, 2015 at 8:22:52 PM permalink
Okay so here's my VP plan (trying to broaden my horizons!):

According to VP Free there are a couple of games that are good at the casinos that I frequent (~99.5% return range).

1. I will use the Wizard's VP strategy calculator to generate the correct strategy. I will only learn the basic strategy, none of the exceptions.
2. At the casino, I will do my own scouting to see if I can find any games not listed on VPFree. I will also check the progressives to see if the jackpot makes it better than the normal games.
3. Play $10-20K coin in or whatever is required to get to next tier
4. Return on point multiplier days and play VP
5. Wait for the mail to come and PROFIT!!!
6. If no good mail, then never play VP at that place again.

Is this a good plan? How much should my session and lifetime bankroll be for $.25 and $1 VP (approximations for main games like full pay Bonus Poker, Jacks or Better, etc)?
AxelWolf
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March 22nd, 2015 at 9:05:23 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow



Lol, jk, I'm actually keeping count. I'm usually playing $15 and $25 tables. According to cvcx im making 1-2 units per hour. More if I'm playing heads up.

Sick with that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Avincow
Avincow
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March 22nd, 2015 at 10:50:54 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Sick with that.



Yes, definitely. Blackjack is awesome, I will keep playing until every last table has been converted to 6:5. But then what do I do when that happens? i gotta think ahead here and diversify my portfolio.
AxelWolf
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March 22nd, 2015 at 11:08:15 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow

Yes, definitely. Blackjack is awesome, I will keep playing until every last table has been converted to 6:5. But then what do I do when that happens?.

That will never happen. If it does there's always poker. Your first instincts about VP in your case was probably right.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Avincow
Avincow
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March 22nd, 2015 at 11:22:02 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

That will never happen. If it does there's always poker. Your first instincts about VP in your case was probably right.



so pretty much what you're saying is that even if I do pick up Video Poker, I will make way more money in blackjack with less risk? But aren't you a Video Poker player yourself? I saw your advertisement about AP Employment Opportunity. I didn't read the entire thread since I'm not a local, but I'm assuming a good chunk of those plays have to do with video poker.
RS
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March 23rd, 2015 at 4:31:56 AM permalink
Quote: Avincow

Okay so here's my VP plan (trying to broaden my horizons!):

According to VP Free there are a couple of games that are good at the casinos that I frequent (~99.5% return range).

1. I will use the Wizard's VP strategy calculator to generate the correct strategy. I will only learn the basic strategy, none of the exceptions.
2. At the casino, I will do my own scouting to see if I can find any games not listed on VPFree. I will also check the progressives to see if the jackpot makes it better than the normal games.
3. Play $10-20K coin in or whatever is required to get to next tier
4. Return on point multiplier days and play VP
5. Wait for the mail to come and PROFIT!!!
6. If no good mail, then never play VP at that place again.

Is this a good plan? How much should my session and lifetime bankroll be for $.25 and $1 VP (approximations for main games like full pay Bonus Poker, Jacks or Better, etc)?



IMO:

Try to figure out what kind of offers other people are getting or at least what kind of offers are even available. There are ways of doing this (fairly easily) at some casinos, but you generally have to already have offers to do it.

But let's say the top offer is 5x$100. Is it now worth it to play $50,000 coin in on 9/6 JOB (about -$250 in EV for coin in)? Most people aren't happy with a 0.5% edge, at least on a big variance game like VP.

But now let's say, the top offer is 5x$500 [$2,500 total]. Now you gotta figure out, how much action you'd be willing to give them for that offer. Now, a $50K or $100K coin-in play is starting to make a lot more sense.......IF it'll get that offer, of course.

On the other hand, if that 5x$100 top offer is at some sh*tf*ck casino that is a low-roller joint with $2 denom as the highest denom machine......then you might want to consider playing that. What, do you think the casino is only giving that to people who play $50,000 coin-in in a day? If the highest they have is a $2 denom.....very unlikely $50K is the requirement for that offer. Probably more along the lines of $20K, or less.

Or if you learn that the top offer is 5x$500, but you're at the MGM Grand......they're probably looking for some heavy action just to generate that mailer.


So it's a big balancing act -- compare the return of the game, the offers the casino gives out, and the casino itself.

I say, figure out when the promotional days are (point multiplier, drawing, etc.) and play big on ONE of those days, and don't play on any other day(s). Play once and let it sit. If there's a progressive, be prepared to play it (if it's high enough). Do your homework ahead of time, figure out at which point it's +EV [or better than the alternative (9/6 JOB?)]. Learn the strategy for the game you'll be playing (probably 9/6 JOB or 8/5 Bonus Poker?). Practice on Video Poker for Winners to make sure you're playing well, and.........go get 'em.
AxelWolf
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March 23rd, 2015 at 9:02:38 AM permalink
Quote: Avincow

so pretty much what you're saying is that even if I do pick up Video Poker, I will make way more money in blackjack with less risk? But aren't you a Video Poker player yourself? I saw your advertisement about AP Employment Opportunity. I didn't read the entire thread since I'm not a local, but I'm assuming a good chunk of those plays have to do with video poker.

No im saying if you are constantly making 1 to 2 units an hr playing BJ. You should stick to that. You allready have a bad view of VP as per the OP. My feeling is your not going to like the VP swings. We might even see you months down the road with a new thread "is VP gaffed or is ot just me?" To get the Hourly you are shooting for it's going to be difficult at best Especially at anything less than $1 denominations. Lots of traveling and a team effort.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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