How's this for a progressive jackpot?
Edit: 8, duh, never mind.
Calculator reports 1.006825.
It hits 100% at 25709.50.
The way I figure it the normal payout for a $1 vp game with max bet hitting a royal flush is $4000 so with an $8 bet it would have to be $6,400 (60% higher) just for starters. Another way to calculate is 800 x $8 for a RF. The pay table is 6/5 with an overall return of 0.949961 when a RF pays 800 units.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/jacks-or-better/
Based on a value of a RF being 0.0199 at 800 units I think the overall return with this progressive jackpot amount is just over 1.015. That's if I calculated it right and I'm not confident that I did.
Quote: PBguyCan someone figure out the EV for this progressive?...
Putting that pay table and progressive prize into WinPoker 6 gives a return of 100.6826% for perfect play.
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with a chopped off 4oak. gonna be a soul crushing drop until it hits.
Quote: PBguyCan someone figure out the EV for this progressive? I don't have the bankroll to go after it but it seems like it would be +EV since the jackpot is so high. If anyone wants to chase it hit up the Pot O' Gold machines near the bar and high limit area at Viejas Casino in San Diego county.
Even though the game was positive (100.68% plus the meter speed) when the royal hit this is one of the most horrible progressives I've ever seen. The payscale just totally sucks. You're getting dropped about 11% between royals. That's a cost of like 90 cents a hand.
The progressive meter probably runs 3% or 4%. A well bankrolled team would probably lock this game up at about $27,000 and use a strategy that produces a royal about every 36,000 games to milk the meter for all that it's worth.
Quote: AxelWolfHow many machines ? What's the heat like for team players ?
Axel, the progressive may reset at a higher amount than the regular $6400 and the meters may not be that fast. Perhaps the OP could shed some light on the reset and the meter speed.
Yes I would be a little interested obviously one does not need to lock it up to get some meter move value. As SA pointed out their may be some other perks as well.Quote: mickeycrimmAxel, the progressive may reset at a higher amount than the regular $6400 and the meters may not be that fast. Perhaps the OP could shed some light on the reset and the meter speed.
POG machines known to be completely random?
Quote: AxelWolfYes I would be a little interested obviously one does not need to lock it up to get some meter move value. As SA pointed out their may be some other perks as well.
POG machines known to be completely random?
I would not make that assumption.
The Pot of Golds are very old games that exist in a lot of black/grey market areas. My understanding is that they also have class 2 games and I have heard it is very easy to change the paybacks on them.
Quote: AxelWolfHow many machines ? What's the heat like for team players ?
I think it's 16 machines in the bank. With the $8 bet to qualify for the jackpot it doesn't get played much. I didn't see anyone playing JoB on these and most of hte machines were idle. Their are teams that hit these when the Keno jackpots get big. I think this is the same bank that recently had a Superball Keno jackpot of $143,000+
Quote: strictlyAPare there new player sign up promotions there? how are the mailerS
$10 free play for new players. Ride their free bus from El Cajon and you get $10 free play per day with 15 points ($75) worth of play. They are pretty generous on monthly free play but stingy on comps. I've been earning about 4,000 points per month and this month I received $120 in free play. If I take the bus 8 times in a month that's now $200 in free play for the month.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13What a horrible pay table. As an individual, you'll go broke trying to hit the royal unless you team play it and fill up all the seats.
ZCore13
This casino doesn't have any full pay vp machines. Even the high denomination machines in the high limit area aren't full pay because they cap the RF at 2000 instead of 4000. I'm amazed people play vp here. Barona casino has full pay machines even for quarters and it's only 15 minutes away.
Quote: DRichDidn't Sams Town used to have 8 coin dollar 9/6 progressives at the bar by the sports book?
Yes, but the royal reset at $4000 instead of $6400.
Quote: Zcore13What a horrible pay table. As an individual, you'll go broke trying to hit the royal unless you team play it and fill up all the seats.
That statement doesn't really make sense. If you can afford to play it as a team, you can afford to play it as an individual (with the same bankroll). Risk of ruin is identical. Locking up all the seats is desirable because it increases expectation (since each seat has the same EV) but does not change risk of ruin.
Quote: mickeycrimmYes, but the royal reset at $4000 instead of $6400.
Interesting. I didn't remember that.
Quote: mickeycrimmAxel, the progressive may reset at a higher amount than the regular $6400 and the meters may not be that fast. Perhaps the OP could shed some light on the reset and the meter speed.
What would I need to do to check the meter speed? Would a small bet do it or do I have to bet $8. BTW you can bet MORE than $8. Unlike many vp machines you can keep increasing the number of credits played. I watched a guy betting $20/hand on a game with a .25 minimum. If he had hit the RF it would have paid less than $4000. He was doing well for a while because these machines have a double-up feature but then he lost everything in about 15 minutes.
Quote: PBguyWhat would I need to do to check the meter speed? Would a small bet do it or do I have to bet $8. BTW you can bet MORE than $8. Unlike many vp machines you can keep increasing the number of credits played. I watched a guy betting $20/hand on a game with a .25 minimum. If he had hit the RF it would have paid less than $4000. He was doing well for a while because these machines have a double-up feature but then he lost everything in about 15 minutes.
The first question is does the meter flip in pennies, nickels or quarters? If it flips in pennies then it will be pretty easy. Let's try that first. You will have to catch the bank when no one is playing. Bet $1 at a time. Play until the meter flips one penny. Then count the number of games it takes to flip it another penny.
If it flips one penny per one dollar bet it is a 1% meter.
It it flips one penny for every two dollars bet it is a half percent meter.
One penny per $4 bet would be a quarter percent meter.
If it flips 2 cents per dollar bet it would be a 2% meter.
If it flips 3 cents per dollar bet it would be a 3% meter.
Four cents per dollar would be a 4% meter, etc.
Quote: mickeycrimmThe first question is does the meter flip in pennies, nickels or quarters? If it flips in pennies then it will be pretty easy. Let's try that first. You will have to catch the bank when no one is playing. Bet $1 at a time. Play until the meter flips one penny. Then count the number of games it takes to flip it another penny.
If it flips one penny per one dollar bet it is a 1% meter.
It it flips one penny for every two dollars bet it is a half percent meter.
One penny per $4 bet would be a quarter percent meter.
If it flips 2 cents per dollar bet it would be a 2% meter.
If it flips 3 cents per dollar bet it would be a 3% meter.
Four cents per dollar would be a 4% meter, etc.
Sounds easy. I'll give it a try tonight.
Quote: PBguySounds easy. I'll give it a try tonight.
make sure you take a picture of your $1 royal. tee hee
Quote: GWAEmake sure you take a picture of your $1 royal. tee hee
Oh man that would HURT!
Maybe I'll just bet $8 to be safe :D
I was in a casino playing a bank of progressive $1 VP. The royal was quite high, more than $8K.
All machines were heavily played by people.
One lady sat next to me put in a ticket, something $500+ and started playing.
After a couple of hours, she lost all of them and down to $20+.
She got very upset and cursing and then she started playing only $2 a hand, not $5.
in just 2 or 3 hands, she hit the royal for $500 instead of almost $9k.
Quote: pokerfacetrue story just happened last week:
I was in a casino playing a bank of progressive $1 VP. The royal was quite high, more than $8K.
All machines were heavily played by people.
One lady sat next to me put in a ticket, something $500+ and started playing.
After a couple of hours, she lost all of them and down to $20+.
She got very upset and cursing and then she started playing only $2 a hand, not $5.
in just 2 or 3 hands, she hit the royal for $500 instead of almost $9k.
I wonder what she would do/say if you told her "CONGRATULATIONS!"
Watching a video like that would probably be the only thing Gary Loveman can get off from seeing.Quote: pokerfacetrue story just happened last week:
I was in a casino playing a bank of progressive $1 VP. The royal was quite high, more than $8K.
All machines were heavily played by people.
One lady sat next to me put in a ticket, something $500+ and started playing.
After a couple of hours, she lost all of them and down to $20+.
She got very upset and cursing and then she started playing only $2 a hand, not $5.
in just 2 or 3 hands, she hit the royal for $500 instead of almost $9k.
Quote: GWAEmake sure you take a picture of your $1 royal. tee hee
If a frog had wings he would bump his ass. GWAE, this method of timing meters is not a part of your losing strategy. Go ahead and laugh. But you don't do aythihng but put down losing strategies.
Quote: mickeycrimmIf a frog had wings he would bump his ass. GWAE, this method of timing meters is not a part of your losing strategy. Go ahead and laugh. But you don't do aythihng but put down losing strategies.
IT'S CALLED A JOKE... RELAX
The entire time I was there only 1 or 2 people played it. Not being hit hard at all certainly not a lot of people chasing the jackpot.
Viejas does .1% cash back points too so that has to be figured into the HE correct?
Quote: PBguyOkay so it took a while to be able to play it without anyone else playing but finally managed. Went ahead and bet $8! Meter moved .40 so that's 5%. Is that good, bad, normal? I played 5 hands and lost 5 hands.
The entire time I was there only 1 or 2 people played it. Not being hit hard at all certainly not a lot of people chasing the jackpot.
Viejas does .1% cash back points too so that has to be figured into the HE correct?
It's great for a "normal" machine. But this is a garbage 92.63% machine before the progressive. But with a 5% meter move, >100% games will still show up a good amount of the time. And with the 8-coin max, I assume some are being real dumb and not max betting either?
You can lump the points in if you want to, it's value. People sometimes just quote that separate though. Sorry you bricked out on the try.
I'm amazed that it's barely >100% with the progressive that high. Shows just how lousy the pay table is.
Quote: PBguyOkay so it took a while to be able to play it without anyone else playing but finally managed. Went ahead and bet $8! Meter moved .40 so that's 5%.
It's hard for me to say exactly what a strong team would do with this play. There are lots of variables. But this is what the numbers would look like if the entire bank could be locked up:
1. A $25,720 Royal would put the game at 100% plus 5% meter movement.
2. The royal would have to miss about 48,000 games to put it on that number. Short coiners are a factor.
3. The Royal frequency would be 31,537 with Max E.V. strategy.
4. The drop between Royals would be 10.1935%, or a cost of $25,720 per Royal.
5. Average Royal would be $38,335.
6. Average profit per Royal would be $12,615
7. At 800 games per hour the hourly rate would be $320 per man hour.
I suspect a strong team would take this play at about 98% plus the 5% meter movement. The royal would have to miss only about 30,000 games to put it on the number, hence more plays, and the game would still have about a $200 per person hourly rate.
Quote: PBguyBTW you can bet MORE than $8.
I just went back through the thread and caught this. This could be a big factor in how many plays develop. PBguy, does the meter still move if someone is overbetting....and can you clarify if they are eligible for the progressive if they are overbetting?
Quote: mickeycrimmI just went back through the thread and caught this. This could be a big factor in how many plays develop. PBguy, does the meter still move if someone is overbetting....and can you clarify if they are eligible for the progressive if they are overbetting?
I'm sure the meter still moves if they over bet. For example, the Keno games on these machines have a minimum bet of .25 and a max of $10. To win the progressive jackpot you have to bet $2 but the regulars bet $10 once the jackpot gets above a certain amount where it typically hits. This specific bank recently had a Superball jackpot hit at over $143,000 and the winner was betting $10.
Quote: mickeycrimmIt's hard for me to say exactly what a strong team would do with this play. There are lots of variables. But this is what the numbers would look like if the entire bank could be locked up:
1. A $25,720 Royal would put the game at 100% plus 5% meter movement.
2. The royal would have to miss about 48,000 games to put it on that number. Short coiners are a factor.
3. The Royal frequency would be 31,537 with Max E.V. strategy.
4. The drop between Royals would be 10.1935%, or a cost of $25,720 per Royal.
5. Average Royal would be $38,335.
6. Average profit per Royal would be $12,615
7. At 800 games per hour the hourly rate would be $320 per man hour.
I suspect a strong team would take this play at about 98% plus the 5% meter movement. The royal would have to miss only about 30,000 games to put it on the number, hence more plays, and the game would still have about a $200 per person hourly rate.
so if a team decides to do this, would they literally stay there until they got their royal? no matter how long it took. Man they would have to have a lot of money on them to do that.
Quote: GWAEso if a team decides to do this, would they literally stay there until they got their royal? no matter how long it took. Man they would have to have a lot of money on them to do that.
The late Tuna Lund's team operated in California quite a bit. He would've been way over bankrolled for this play. This might be one of the plays he picked on. Sixteen seats is a lot of seats to fill. But generally team players rotate on and off the play until the royal goes. And the rule is "If it was an advantage play when you started it's a play until you hit the royal." You never quit until you achieve your objective.
With 16 players cranking out 800 hands per hour each the royal is expected to hit an average of every 2 1/2 hours.
Quote: GWAEso if a team decides to do this, would they literally stay there until they got their royal? no matter how long it took. Man they would have to have a lot of money on them to do that.
You can still play it if you don't lock up all the seats. Your expectation is the same as a single player on the team. The only issue is that the bankroll requirements are the same for you as they are for an entire team playing all the seats at once (the shared bankroll is the real advantage of team play -- if there are 16 seats, you get 16x the expected profit on the same bankroll. This applies to other +EV opportunities too)
It's also not necessary to commit to staying there until you hit it. It's still +EV if you don't -- your expectation is hourly. The only problem is that if you can't find another good play, when you leave (or if someone else hits it) it might be a long time until you get the opportunity to make another +EV play.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou can still play it if you don't lock up all the seats. Your expectation is the same as a single player on the team.
For a team locking up all the seats, they guarantee the royal is theirs and the +EV will be meterialized.
However, for a single player, you could lose $25K or more just to see that the $50K royal is hit by the guy next to you and your +EV is merely a mirage.
Quote: pokerfaceFor a team locking up all the seats, they guarantee the royal is theirs and the +EV will be meterialized.
However, for a single player, you could lose $25K or more just to see that the $50K royal is hit by the guy next to you and your +EV is merely a mirage.
The recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn. If you don't get the royal in this spot then just move on to the next advantage play.
Quote: pokerfaceFor a team locking up all the seats, they guarantee the royal is theirs and the +EV will be meterialized.
However, for a single player, you could lose $25K or more just to see that the $50K royal is hit by the guy next to you and your +EV is merely a mirage.
Expectation is not a mirage. If you are properly bankrolled, and more plays are available in the future, it makes no difference.
Also, there are no guarantees. You can lose money even if you hit the royal. And you can win money if you don't.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceExpectation is not a mirage. If you are properly bankrolled, and more plays are available in the future, it makes no difference.
Also, there are no guarantees. You can lose money even if you hit the royal. And you can win money if you don't.
But isn't the edge based on getting the royal?
I shouldn't even bother asking that since you APs are so far beyond me on these things.
Quote: GWAEBut isn't the edge based on getting the royal?
I shouldn't even bother asking that since you APs are so far beyond me on these things.
Your edge is based on the fact that the expectation of the game is positive. The royal contributes to that, but so do the rest of the entries in the pay table.
Quote: GWAEBut isn't the edge based on getting the royal?
.
No, it is based on playing and having the opportunity to get it.
Quote: GWAEBut isn't the edge based on getting the royal?.
It's based on getting your share of royals over multiple opportunities.
Quote: GWAEBut isn't the edge based on getting the royal?
I shouldn't even bother asking that since you APs are so far beyond me on these things.
Ya but you just keep putting a bunch of hands in +EV situations and eventually it'll work out. Same as making -EV bets over and over you'll eventually balance out with what the house edge is.
It's phenomenal to see in real life, instead of theory on a spreadsheet. I prefer my actual profit to = EV, because I hate swings of any sort, but I imagine it's the same for all advantage players. I had a run of EV < actual, and was on a high until it evened out and went the other way.
