candiedapple
candiedapple
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Joined: Oct 9, 2012
October 9th, 2012 at 10:33:38 AM permalink
Hi everyone. I'm trying to find a way to calculate risk of ruin in J/B.

For example, if you start with $500 on a $1 9/5 machine (and play 5 coins), what is the chance you bust out in 1200 hands.

any help would be great!
7craps
7craps
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Joined: Jan 23, 2010
October 9th, 2012 at 11:34:14 AM permalink
edit: I used JOB 9/6 and not 9/5.
I have to change my numbers but can't now. off to work.

Most use programs like VP for Windows (free to try)
or Gamblers Odds 1.3 (free to own)

IMO, VP for Windows is slower but gets the job done.
GO1.3 is faster
both get the same values
Both use weighted results per trial and just crunch the numbers.

work up to Your example,
(see if others agree, I did not use VP4Windows)
1200 hands
JOB $1 9/6 results
with a $300 bankroll
51.29% bust
69.47% chance of a losing session

a $400 bankroll
35.47% bust
66.94% chance of a losing session

a $500 bankroll
22.43% bust
66.12% chance of a losing session

a $1000 bankroll
00.42% bust
65.77% chance of a losing session

Good Luck in your play!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
candiedapple
candiedapple
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Joined: Oct 9, 2012
October 9th, 2012 at 11:38:35 AM permalink
Awesome, thanks for the reply. I'm just learning VP so I'm not familiar with all the software programs used to analyze situations, I appreciate it. If GO 1.3 is free why would someone pay for VP for windows?
7craps
7craps
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Joined: Jan 23, 2010
October 9th, 2012 at 11:50:38 AM permalink
VP4Windows does a lot more for you.
You can play and see hands and more.

You can download both for free and try them.

Many like all the features in VP

I can re-do your 9/5 later for different starting bankrolls.
Or jump into it yourself and see how you do.
9/5 JOB and 1200 hands
a quick look is
$500 bankroll
28.47% bust
72.78% chance of a losing session
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
candiedapple
candiedapple
  • Threads: 3
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Joined: Oct 9, 2012
October 10th, 2012 at 5:29:26 AM permalink
Thanks again. I downloaded GO 1.3 quickly but had no clue what to do when I opened it so I'll have to dig deeper when I have more time at my home computer
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