MGM Grand Las Vegas - 3/1/19 Trip Report
Here is the plan. My total bankroll is $8,000. This will be divided into four daily allowances of $2,000. Winnings at the end of the day will be segregated from the money yet to be gambled. Should a bust occur, that's it for gambling that day.
I will be playing craps exclusively and will be making an even numbers bet (4, 6, 8, 10) of between $220 and $230 per roll depending on the point. As an example, if the point is five or nine, it would look like $50 / $60 / $60 / $50. If the point is 6, it would look like $70 /$0 / $90 / $70. I will bet the pass-line and back up with $30 odds regardless of the point. Total rated play should be ~$230 per roll and average bet size including odds will be $260 per roll. That puts total bankroll at 30x average bet and daily bankroll at 7.5x average bet. The goal is to get slightly below four hours per day for a total of 14 to 16 hours at the slowest tables possible.
Based on slightly weaker play on my last trip (~$200 / roll for 13 hours over about the same time period), I received the following in terms of comps on this trip: Four nights in a two queen staywell suite, limo pickup and dropoff, access to VIP lounge/VIP checkin, and $100/day in resort credit. I am splitting the room with two friends (poker players), who are paying me back for their portion of the resort credit and the room value ($333 apiece), which is going into the bankroll.
I will update when I'm done: good bad or ugly. If there's interest, I will give nightly updates while there. If anyone wants me to check into anything at the MGM or has any thoughts, let me know.
Usual admonitions to hit the four hour mark and to recall 'day' ends at 4am in most casinos comp systems.
good perks if you value them.
MGM used to be my home base, but lately I’ve been gravitating more towards Mandalay...
Quote: FleaStiffgood luck.
Usual admonitions to hit the four hour mark and to recall 'day' ends at 4am in most casinos comp systems.
good perks if you value them.
Does it matter if it's four hours per day verses say, six hours one day and three for the remaining days?
Last time I was there (last month), night one I went on an eight hour craps all-night bender and I adjusted the play down for the rest of the trip. I'm pretty consistent doing that because I have all this pent up Vegas energy that first night after sitting on a plane for four hours envisioning myself lighting up those fours and tens. No host has ever told me that it had to be four hours every day, but rather four hours average per day on the trip. When I check my numbers at the mLife desk, they also generally just give me "hours played" and "average bet," not anything keyed to a certain amount per day. Despite an unevenly distributed four hours per day, in requesting reservations this time, my comps went up and my gaming offers through the mLife website also increased. No one has ever asked me to even out my play. I ask because you point out the daily casino reset time (4am), and I wasn't aware that was an important part of the metric.
Also, just soliciting thoughts here: the last day is a half day in that we have a flight out at midnight and will be leaving the hotel around 10:00 PM. I specifically requested only a late check-out, but they roped me into an entire extra day. I didn't protest too much - I'm getting the extra resort credit as well and I don't exactly mind being able to check out and immediately head to the airport. On the other hand I am also very cognizant both of meeting play expectations and the negative EV of each additional hour on the table (I have myself calculated at $92.18 per hour at 135 rolls per hour - hopefully I can get a slower table). Do you think I can get away with an hour or two hours less play time because I'm not spending the night the last night, or are they not going to see it that way? Or would it just be better to reduce the average bet to $200 even and hit the sixteen hours, which would yield a comparable expected loss for me?
Quote: dalsanto3Does it matter if it's four hours per day verses say, six hours one day and three for the remaining days?
Last time I was there (last month), night one I went on an eight hour craps all-night bender and I adjusted the play down for the rest of the trip. I'm pretty consistent doing that because I have all this pent up Vegas energy that first night after sitting on a plane for four hours envisioning myself lighting up those fours and tens. No host has ever told me that it had to be four hours every day, but rather four hours average per day on the trip. When I check my numbers at the mLife desk, they also generally just give me "hours played" and "average bet," not anything keyed to a certain amount per day. Despite an unevenly distributed four hours per day, in requesting reservations this time, my comps went up and my gaming offers through the mLife website also increased. No one has ever asked me to even out my play. I ask because you point out the daily casino reset time (4am), and I wasn't aware that was an important part of the metric.
Also, just soliciting thoughts here: the last day is a half day in that we have a flight out at midnight and will be leaving the hotel around 10:00 PM. I specifically requested only a late check-out, but they roped me into an entire extra day. I didn't protest too much - I'm getting the extra resort credit as well and I don't exactly mind being able to check out and immediately head to the airport. On the other hand I am also very cognizant both of meeting play expectations and the negative EV of each additional hour on the table (I have myself calculated at $92.18 per hour at 135 rolls per hour - hopefully I can get a slower table). Do you think I can get away with an hour or two hours less play time because I'm not spending the night the last night, or are they not going to see it that way? Or would it just be better to reduce the average bet to $200 even and hit the sixteen hours, which would yield a comparable expected loss for me?
I'm not sure anyone.here can give you a definitive answer. However, I think if you average 4 hrs/day over your trip you'll be ok.
My current offer is 4 nights at MB or MGM with $50FP and $50 Resort credit.
This offer is fairly consistent and I've used it for about 4 years now.
Nonetheless you are risking between .73 and a buck per roll when the number is working 2 rolls of three) or about $35 /hour on a slow table. Over 16 hours of Ola thanks represents about a $500 Theo loss. If the MGM comp rate is about 30% you would expect about 150 of offers.
Given my 12 hours of play average at a Theo loss of about $25/hour max and my offer of a similar number of free nights and 50 RC + 50 FP I would say losing a 1/2 day ofmolay at your level would have zero effect on your offer.
At your level of play your offer appears fine.
Quote: boymimboHopefully you are buying the 4 and 10 rather than placing it. Not sure if you are playing $2 or $3 commission on that win.
Nonetheless you are risking between .73 and a buck per roll when the number is working 2 rolls of three) or about $35 /hour on a slow table. Over 16 hours of Ola thanks represents about a $500 Theo loss. If the MGM comp rate is about 30% you would expect about 150 of offers.
Given my 12 hours of play average at a Theo loss of about $25/hour max and my offer of a similar number of free nights and 50 RC + 50 FP I would say losing a 1/2 day ofmolay at your level would have zero effect on your offer.
At your level of play your offer appears fine.
Thanks for the input/thoughts.
Four and Ten is an auto-buy. I drop 2 on $50 to get $100, 3 on $70 to get $140, $4 on $90 to get $180. They round down fifty cents, so those numbers represent the max number for those drops and hence the least house edge as I calculate it.
On $200/roll I calculate my actual THEO (using my specific bets) at around $58 per hour @ 102 rolls per hour (slow table), total THEO at around $950 on 16 hours of play. As you say, I should be getting comped at 1/3 of THEO, which is like $300 . They are obviously comping me at a much higher rate than this. I calculate my comps value at around $2000, as the room I'm getting is around $200 a night (even considering a 30% platinum discount), $400 in resort credit, VIP checkin, drinks at the table, and pickup. Even if you just include rooms and resort credit, that's close to $1500 in comps. That means they have my THEO at $4,500 or $6,000 - five or six times what it actually is.
I can only gather that they are comping based on (hours at the table)*(average bet size) and simply using a table average for expected loss on all rated bets, all of which are worse than buy four ten (vig win only) and place six eight due to either (1) more resolutions per hour or (2) higher house edge and especially (3) the combination of the two. There are many smarter people on this forum than me so I'd love to hear if I'm missing something. I have replicated similar comps based on this sort of play at Aria, Bellagio, MGM Grand, and through the general mLife website promotions. I will also say that I had a bad year last year and clocked a $16,000 loss on my win/loss statement, so it's possible they are looking at that and are just licking their chops waiting for me to implode. Last trip I walked away up $4k for the trip though.
Quote: ChumpChangeWith $8000 you could have 16 $500 sessions and try to double or nothing on those sessions with $30 - $90 bets at the Blackjack table. If you win $500, you can pay your room, and get your meal comped. Seems like you're throwing your money away for comps.
Isn't it just as easy that I could lose $500 using that strategy? Isn't it actually more likely that I would do that, considering that blackjack is a negative EV game outside of skilled / practiced card counters (not me)? I mean, it's possible you're correct, but wouldn't we have to define a couple more things before we could say that for sure?
Taking your example to the extreme, let's say we put the $8,000 on sixteen blackjack hands @ $500 a pop. There are all sorts of very up outcomes and very down outcomes on that with no comps coming back. It's super high volatility, but certainly the house edge would be much less because you're only resolving sixteen bets at between 1 and 2 percent house edge. Each hand you'd be giving the house on average like $10 for a total negative EV of -$50 or so. With the comps I'm receiving - because I value them and would spend money on them anyways, I actually think my comps value outweighs my negative EV. Plus it's not nearly as volatile as the strategy you're proposing, with many more outcomes in the +-$2000 range. Also, I'm not flying out to Vegas to play an 3 hours of blackjack. Or you could take it more to the extreme: put it all on one roulette spin and maybe you pay for 10 Vegas trips in the matter of 30 seconds.
I agree, don't chase comps and I agree with your cautionary statement. I also agree with the general sentiment to get comped for the pay you would do anyways. I'm attempting to (1) play a game that I enjoy; (2) drink for like four hours for free; (3) minimize house edge - a component of which is maximizing comps.
If I was playing craps, I'd be very conservative. A session of 10 bets in the rail for the passline typically lasts me 30-90 minutes (average 1 hour) and I'm either doubling or nothing my session buy-in. Trying to stretch that out to 16 hours would mean budgeting 16 sessions. At $50 betting only the passline, a truly cold run could go through $8000 in 16 sessions of 10x $50. I'd have less -EV if I bet $15 on the PL with double odds.
I prefer to mix in hardways when I play as I find the casino tends to appreciate it and I believe offers me more comps through that strategy.
EDIT: Also, are pictures going to be included in this TR? It wouldn't be a proper TR without some pics
If you play 12 hours the first day and then nothing for the next 2, should be the same as 4-4-4.
YMMV
Quote: SOOPOOThere is 'theo' and actual. They "think" they have an actual on you, which may have them overcomping your theo. Rat holing chips to me is a big plus. I walk away even or down a bit on most of my wins. I'm no expert, but I think "losing" each session helps with comps.
Just like what SOOPOO said, rat holing is a HUGE +EV on comps. I also found rat holing at a craps table the easiest. I would highly recommend playing at a busy loud table. About 2 year ago, I was on a guys trip at Planet Hollywood with 3 friends, and I played exclusively craps for 5 sessions $1000 buy-in each round, and the PH was fairly busy at every table that weekend due to March madness. I was playing around $20 pass line with full odds on 3X, 4X, 5X. All weekend, the tables were up and down with no real crazy hot or cold streak. I rat holed around $200-300 each session with green chips and end up netting exactly $1300 of green chips for the weekend. I was a bit paranoid, so I made my friends start cashing my chips in at several greens at a time along with their chips and at other various casinos when we went casino hopping. Long story short, I ended the weekend with an actual Planet Hollywood profit of $150, I ended up with a decent rating, some food comp, and my host sent me a text as I was checking out, "sorry you lost this trip, maybe next time." I sent back the text "Can you tell me how much the system is saying I'm down" She replied "Down 1100 All on craps with X avg bet X hours. Is that accurate?" I replied, "just about, see you next time."
theo is nice, but it's not everything. The casinos like to see actual losses on you.
Quote: SOOPOOWelcome to the forum. There is 'theo' and actual. They "think" they have an actual on you, which may have them overcomping your theo. Rat holing chips to me is a big plus. I walk away even or down a bit on most of my wins. I'm no expert, but I think "losing" each session helps with comps.
A host at the casino we visited for our son's 21st birthday was asked about some comps for a meal at the steak house. I had gambled my normal amount and won a little bit and she gave me a slip for $80. My son asked and she said that it looked like he had been winning and did not qualify for any comps. He had no history there, so I am not sure if that was the correct answer or a lazy one... At any rate, I would advise him to rat hole in the future just in case it matters in their calculations.
At another local, a player had a couple of thousand dollars in green chips in front of him. The dealers had just let a guy at the other end of the table color up and continue play (which I know is discouraged, if allowed at all). The guy next to me wanted to give his wife some money and tried to do the same thing. They refused, so she left with a whole bunch of green chips. When he left, he pocketed all of the rest of them. I know they had an idea of what he had on the rail, but they would have had a more exact number if they had done the partial color for him. I know it slows the table down but so does buying in mid-roll but they seem to allow that without question.
Anyway, I don't usually rat hole but I may start...who knows if it will make any difference in my minimal comps!
Ya, that is a bit paranoid for only $1300 in chips. I wouldn't even begin to worry at PH unless you had 5k or more in green. I would think cashing in the chips in at other locations would be scrutinized more than if you were to just cash in the $1300 all at once at PH.Quote: SiegfriedRoyI rat holed around $200-300 each session with green chips and end up netting exactly $1300 of green chips for the weekend. I was a bit paranoid, so I made my friends start cashing my chips in at several greens at a time along with their chips and at other various casinos when we went casino hopping.
p.s. I do commend the rat holing. Oftentimes it doesn't help, but when it does it's a good feeling since it's a free roll. It's a game within the game.
Quote: AxelWolfYa, that is a bit paranoid for only $1300 in chips. I wouldn't even begin to worry at PH unless you had 5k or more in green. I would think cashing in the chips in at other locations would be scrutinized more
It was my first time, so I was paranoid. Now I’ve learned. FYI. Cashing in green chips at other locations was very easy. The cage takes it without any questions. I heard black chips can be a very different story.
Quote: mayoroftitycityDid this whole report just fizzle out? We haven't heard anything from this guy in months and his trip starts in like 3 days
Kinda hard to write trip reports before they actually happen.
Quote: mayoroftitycity2 days out and we still have nothign. I'm calling it now. Delsante is a fraud
Now, now, Mayor. Del may have a perfectly good reason for not immediately complying with your demands. For example, Del might be trying to find the definition of "nothign."
Other WoV members sometimes take longer than 2 days to prepare their trip-report updates. Maybe it's taking longer than expected to count all winnings from the trip. Anyhow, there may be a perfectly reasonable explanation once we finally see the final (hopefully successful) trip report.
Quote: mayoroftitycity2 days out and we still have nothign. I'm calling it now. Delsante is a fraud
Based on your extensive history here?
Quote: LuckyPhowNow, now, Mayor. Del may have a perfectly good reason for not immediately complying with your demands. For example, Del might be trying to find the definition of "nothign."
Other WoV members sometimes take longer than 2 days to prepare their trip-report updates. Maybe it's taking longer than expected to count all winnings from the trip. Anyhow, there may be a perfectly reasonable explanation once we finally see the final (hopefully successful) trip report.
Ok, I'll give you that, I shouldn't be so impatient. But people, we're so close. I'M EXCITED. I just only hope that Delsante shares the excitement that we all have for this report. I'm jazzed, and not like the instrument. You can do this, Delsante!!! Take it down
Quote: billryanBased on your extensive history here?
I get it, Bill. I'm a new guy. But can't a guy get excited about a TR, regardless of his status on the forum? VEGAS!!! 2 days!!!!
Quote: mayoroftitycityI get it, Bill. I'm a new guy. But can't a guy get excited about a TR, regardless of his status on the forum? VEGAS!!! 2 days!!!!
I'll be in Vegas march 2-4 staying at the new Park MGM (ye olde Monte Carlo) and will provide a trip report upon my return, particularly around the renovated property.
Looking forward to getting out of this damned cold. If we want to do a mini-meet PM me and if there is enough interest I'll open a thread.
Woot.
Quote: boymimboI'll be in Vegas march 2-4 staying at the new Park MGM (ye olde Monte Carlo) and will provide a trip report upon my return, particularly around the renovated property.
Looking forward to getting out of this damned cold. If we want to do a mini-meet PM me and if there is enough interest I'll open a thread.
Woot.
Hey, if you get a chance can check to see if they have a Tile game? Their website says no, but that's not always accurate.
Also according to their website, the only high-limit game they have is blackjack, which doesn't sound right.
Quote: boymimboI'll be in Vegas march 2-4 staying at the new Park MGM (ye olde Monte Carlo) and will provide a trip report upon my return, particularly around the renovated property.
Looking forward to getting out of this damned cold. If we want to do a mini-meet PM me and if there is enough interest I'll open a thread.
Woot.
I am on the plane now heading home from a 4 night comped stay at Park MGM.
I will not be doing a trip report, but it was basically lots of Pai Gow Poker and walking.
Quote: TigerWuHey, if you get a chance can check to see if they have a Tile game? Their website says no, but that's not always accurate.
Also according to their website, the only high-limit game they have is blackjack, which doesn't sound right.
I didn’t look in the high limit room but they definitely don’t have tiles on the main floor. And they only have Face Up PGP now.
Quote: ams288I am on the plane now heading home from a 4 night comped stay at Park MGM.
I will not be doing a trip report, but it was basically lots of Pai Gow Poker and walking.
Add sports betting and the pool, and that’s every trip I take to Vegas.
Quote: mayoroftitycityDid this whole report just fizzle out? We haven't heard anything from this guy in months and his trip starts in like 3 days
The report is alive and well mayoroftitycity! For some reasons I was missing the notifications on this thread.
I'm in the airport now about to take off from Ohio. I'll be giving daily updates.
I've settled on a $9,000 bankroll for the trip. $2000 per day at about $230 per roll, including odds. I'm going to bet 4/6/8/10 as described at the beginning of the thread. I have one small wrinkle in that I have an extra $1000 that I'm going to put on one roll whenever it feels right.
Way up or way down, I'm gonna update no matter what. We'll see what my host says at the end in terms of comps verses my play. The test will be I plan on putting a little more on the room than I'm getting resort credit for and seeing if I can get it comped.
Quote: dalsanto3The report is alive and well mayoroftitycity! For some reasons I was missing the notifications on this thread.
I'm in the airport now about to take off from Ohio. I'll be giving daily updates.
I've settled on a $9,000 bankroll for the trip. $2000 per day at about $230 per roll, including odds. I'm going to bet 4/6/8/10 as described at the beginning of the thread. I have one small wrinkle in that I have an extra $1000 that I'm going to put on one roll whenever it feels right.
Way up or way down, I'm gonna update no matter what. We'll see what my host says at the end in terms of comps verses my play. The test will be I plan on putting a little more on the room than I'm getting resort credit for and seeing if I can get it comped.
Man, I'd take a few more wrinkles if each was worth 1k. Hahaha.
Quote: SOOPOOWelcome to the forum. There is 'theo' and actual. They "think" they have an actual on you, which may have them overcomping your theo. Rat holing chips to me is a big plus. I walk away even or down a bit on most of my wins. I'm no expert, but I think "losing" each session helps with comps. [/
I've always been on the fence with that one. Do they want a loser to keep coming back, or do they want someone who walks away a winner back more in order to get their money back rather than have them lose the money at a competing casino? My comps have been getting better in terms of RFB, offers/events, and show up money and I've taken 5 figures from them over the last two years.
I'll be going this weekend to my usual haunt and doing all the usual things so we'll see.The best things in life are not free.
Quote: FinsRuleWhy would someone make up a trip to Las Vegas?
Why? Weird form of attention I guess?
It's happened on the forum that I moderate before. I was the one that had the initial doubts about him too. It all started when he claimed he got Bonus of 100 initial Free Spins on IGT's "Stinkin' Rich". That is impossible to do. You can only get a maximum of 35 to start. No pic of course. He never had pics. But he often "won big" in his reports!
Later on, a bigger slip up was he used descriptive flight details. I looked up the flight times he claimed. Never existed.
Quote: tringlomaneWhy? Weird form of attention I guess?
It's happened on the forum that I moderate before. I was the one that had the initial doubts about him too. It all started when he claimed he got Bonus of 100 initial Free Spins on IGT's "Stinkin' Rich". That is impossible to do. You can only get a maximum of 35 to start. No pic of course. He never had pics. But he often "won big" in his reports!
Later on, a bigger slip up was he used descriptive flight details. I looked up the flight times he claimed. Never existed.
I too am waiting for his TR, but he did state on his original post that he'd put the trip report at the end of the stay. Maybe we should give him a few days before pouncing on him.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI’m now eating crow and believe everything tringlomane has said... you can’t just announce you’re doing a TR and then just ghost.
At least someone believes him😀
