dalsanto3
dalsanto3
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ams288AyecarumbasmoothgrhSOOPOO
February 7th, 2019 at 4:58:02 PM permalink
I will be going on a trip with my two friends to the MGM Grand in Las Vegas March 1st through the 5th.

Here is the plan. My total bankroll is $8,000. This will be divided into four daily allowances of $2,000. Winnings at the end of the day will be segregated from the money yet to be gambled. Should a bust occur, that's it for gambling that day.

I will be playing craps exclusively and will be making an even numbers bet (4, 6, 8, 10) of between $220 and $230 per roll depending on the point. As an example, if the point is five or nine, it would look like $50 / $60 / $60 / $50. If the point is 6, it would look like $70 /$0 / $90 / $70. I will bet the pass-line and back up with $30 odds regardless of the point. Total rated play should be ~$230 per roll and average bet size including odds will be $260 per roll. That puts total bankroll at 30x average bet and daily bankroll at 7.5x average bet. The goal is to get slightly below four hours per day for a total of 14 to 16 hours at the slowest tables possible.

Based on slightly weaker play on my last trip (~$200 / roll for 13 hours over about the same time period), I received the following in terms of comps on this trip: Four nights in a two queen staywell suite, limo pickup and dropoff, access to VIP lounge/VIP checkin, and $100/day in resort credit. I am splitting the room with two friends (poker players), who are paying me back for their portion of the resort credit and the room value ($333 apiece), which is going into the bankroll.

I will update when I'm done: good bad or ugly. If there's interest, I will give nightly updates while there. If anyone wants me to check into anything at the MGM or has any thoughts, let me know.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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Thanks for this post from:
dalsanto3
February 7th, 2019 at 5:27:59 PM permalink
good luck.
Usual admonitions to hit the four hour mark and to recall 'day' ends at 4am in most casinos comp systems.

good perks if you value them.
ams288
ams288
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February 7th, 2019 at 6:15:10 PM permalink
Look forward to reading it.

MGM used to be my home base, but lately Iíve been gravitating more towards Mandalay...
Lock him up!
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
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February 7th, 2019 at 7:15:16 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

good luck.
Usual admonitions to hit the four hour mark and to recall 'day' ends at 4am in most casinos comp systems.

good perks if you value them.



Does it matter if it's four hours per day verses say, six hours one day and three for the remaining days?

Last time I was there (last month), night one I went on an eight hour craps all-night bender and I adjusted the play down for the rest of the trip. I'm pretty consistent doing that because I have all this pent up Vegas energy that first night after sitting on a plane for four hours envisioning myself lighting up those fours and tens. No host has ever told me that it had to be four hours every day, but rather four hours average per day on the trip. When I check my numbers at the mLife desk, they also generally just give me "hours played" and "average bet," not anything keyed to a certain amount per day. Despite an unevenly distributed four hours per day, in requesting reservations this time, my comps went up and my gaming offers through the mLife website also increased. No one has ever asked me to even out my play. I ask because you point out the daily casino reset time (4am), and I wasn't aware that was an important part of the metric.

Also, just soliciting thoughts here: the last day is a half day in that we have a flight out at midnight and will be leaving the hotel around 10:00 PM. I specifically requested only a late check-out, but they roped me into an entire extra day. I didn't protest too much - I'm getting the extra resort credit as well and I don't exactly mind being able to check out and immediately head to the airport. On the other hand I am also very cognizant both of meeting play expectations and the negative EV of each additional hour on the table (I have myself calculated at $92.18 per hour at 135 rolls per hour - hopefully I can get a slower table). Do you think I can get away with an hour or two hours less play time because I'm not spending the night the last night, or are they not going to see it that way? Or would it just be better to reduce the average bet to $200 even and hit the sixteen hours, which would yield a comparable expected loss for me?
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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Thanks for this post from:
dalsanto3
February 7th, 2019 at 7:25:02 PM permalink
Quote: dalsanto3

Does it matter if it's four hours per day verses say, six hours one day and three for the remaining days?

Last time I was there (last month), night one I went on an eight hour craps all-night bender and I adjusted the play down for the rest of the trip. I'm pretty consistent doing that because I have all this pent up Vegas energy that first night after sitting on a plane for four hours envisioning myself lighting up those fours and tens. No host has ever told me that it had to be four hours every day, but rather four hours average per day on the trip. When I check my numbers at the mLife desk, they also generally just give me "hours played" and "average bet," not anything keyed to a certain amount per day. Despite an unevenly distributed four hours per day, in requesting reservations this time, my comps went up and my gaming offers through the mLife website also increased. No one has ever asked me to even out my play. I ask because you point out the daily casino reset time (4am), and I wasn't aware that was an important part of the metric.

Also, just soliciting thoughts here: the last day is a half day in that we have a flight out at midnight and will be leaving the hotel around 10:00 PM. I specifically requested only a late check-out, but they roped me into an entire extra day. I didn't protest too much - I'm getting the extra resort credit as well and I don't exactly mind being able to check out and immediately head to the airport. On the other hand I am also very cognizant both of meeting play expectations and the negative EV of each additional hour on the table (I have myself calculated at $92.18 per hour at 135 rolls per hour - hopefully I can get a slower table). Do you think I can get away with an hour or two hours less play time because I'm not spending the night the last night, or are they not going to see it that way? Or would it just be better to reduce the average bet to $200 even and hit the sixteen hours, which would yield a comparable expected loss for me?



I'm not sure anyone.here can give you a definitive answer. However, I think if you average 4 hrs/day over your trip you'll be ok.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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February 7th, 2019 at 8:59:24 PM permalink
I go to Vegas once a year and I play .25 VP, PGP and.a bit of BJ, Craps and a few carnival games at no more more $10/hand. PGP might be $20/hand over three days.

My current offer is 4 nights at MB or MGM with $50FP and $50 Resort credit.

This offer is fairly consistent and I've used it for about 4 years now.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
boymimbo
boymimbo
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February 7th, 2019 at 9:21:00 PM permalink
Hopefully you are buying the 4 and 10 rather than placing it. Not sure if you are playing $2 or $3 commission on that win.

Nonetheless you are risking between .73 and a buck per roll when the number is working 2 rolls of three) or about $35 /hour on a slow table. Over 16 hours of Ola thanks represents about a $500 Theo loss. If the MGM comp rate is about 30% you would expect about 150 of offers.

Given my 12 hours of play average at a Theo loss of about $25/hour max and my offer of a similar number of free nights and 50 RC + 50 FP I would say losing a 1/2 day ofmolay at your level would have zero effect on your offer.

At your level of play your offer appears fine.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
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February 7th, 2019 at 9:42:55 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Hopefully you are buying the 4 and 10 rather than placing it. Not sure if you are playing $2 or $3 commission on that win.

Nonetheless you are risking between .73 and a buck per roll when the number is working 2 rolls of three) or about $35 /hour on a slow table. Over 16 hours of Ola thanks represents about a $500 Theo loss. If the MGM comp rate is about 30% you would expect about 150 of offers.

Given my 12 hours of play average at a Theo loss of about $25/hour max and my offer of a similar number of free nights and 50 RC + 50 FP I would say losing a 1/2 day ofmolay at your level would have zero effect on your offer.

At your level of play your offer appears fine.



Thanks for the input/thoughts.

Four and Ten is an auto-buy. I drop 2 on $50 to get $100, 3 on $70 to get $140, $4 on $90 to get $180. They round down fifty cents, so those numbers represent the max number for those drops and hence the least house edge as I calculate it.

On $200/roll I calculate my actual THEO (using my specific bets) at around $58 per hour @ 102 rolls per hour (slow table), total THEO at around $950 on 16 hours of play. As you say, I should be getting comped at 1/3 of THEO, which is like $300 . They are obviously comping me at a much higher rate than this. I calculate my comps value at around $2000, as the room I'm getting is around $200 a night (even considering a 30% platinum discount), $400 in resort credit, VIP checkin, drinks at the table, and pickup. Even if you just include rooms and resort credit, that's close to $1500 in comps. That means they have my THEO at $4,500 or $6,000 - five or six times what it actually is.

I can only gather that they are comping based on (hours at the table)*(average bet size) and simply using a table average for expected loss on all rated bets, all of which are worse than buy four ten (vig win only) and place six eight due to either (1) more resolutions per hour or (2) higher house edge and especially (3) the combination of the two. There are many smarter people on this forum than me so I'd love to hear if I'm missing something. I have replicated similar comps based on this sort of play at Aria, Bellagio, MGM Grand, and through the general mLife website promotions. I will also say that I had a bad year last year and clocked a $16,000 loss on my win/loss statement, so it's possible they are looking at that and are just licking their chops waiting for me to implode. Last trip I walked away up $4k for the trip though.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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February 7th, 2019 at 10:01:26 PM permalink
With $8000 you could have 16 $500 sessions and try to double or nothing on those sessions with $30 - $90 bets at the Blackjack table. If you win $500, you can pay your room, and get your meal comped. Seems like you're throwing your money away for comps.
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
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February 7th, 2019 at 10:22:12 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

With $8000 you could have 16 $500 sessions and try to double or nothing on those sessions with $30 - $90 bets at the Blackjack table. If you win $500, you can pay your room, and get your meal comped. Seems like you're throwing your money away for comps.



Isn't it just as easy that I could lose $500 using that strategy? Isn't it actually more likely that I would do that, considering that blackjack is a negative EV game outside of skilled / practiced card counters (not me)? I mean, it's possible you're correct, but wouldn't we have to define a couple more things before we could say that for sure?

Taking your example to the extreme, let's say we put the $8,000 on sixteen blackjack hands @ $500 a pop. There are all sorts of very up outcomes and very down outcomes on that with no comps coming back. It's super high volatility, but certainly the house edge would be much less because you're only resolving sixteen bets at between 1 and 2 percent house edge. Each hand you'd be giving the house on average like $10 for a total negative EV of -$50 or so. With the comps I'm receiving - because I value them and would spend money on them anyways, I actually think my comps value outweighs my negative EV. Plus it's not nearly as volatile as the strategy you're proposing, with many more outcomes in the +-$2000 range. Also, I'm not flying out to Vegas to play an 3 hours of blackjack. Or you could take it more to the extreme: put it all on one roulette spin and maybe you pay for 10 Vegas trips in the matter of 30 seconds.

I agree, don't chase comps and I agree with your cautionary statement. I also agree with the general sentiment to get comped for the pay you would do anyways. I'm attempting to (1) play a game that I enjoy; (2) drink for like four hours for free; (3) minimize house edge - a component of which is maximizing comps.

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