3CP question
My question is, what sort of strategy adjustments, if any, should I make for the second hand based on the composition of the first hand?
For example, if my first hand is folded with T-8-4, should I also fold a q-6-4 in the second hand?
Or if my first hand is k-k-q, should I then play q-6-3 on the second hand?
While that makes sense, it's not allowed.Quote: ecofina... it makes sense that I bet $10 on the hand I look at first, and $40 on the hand I look at second.
If you play two hands at different values, the casino will force you to play your bigger bet first.
If they are the same bet value, the casino will let you play either hand first.
In both cases, once you play the first hand, and look at the second hand, they won't let you change the first hand.
The dealers force me to play my rightmost hand first, regardless of bet size. Maybe they are just not properly trained.
In any case, regardless of bet spread, surely there are some strategy deviations to take advantage of?
Quote: ecofinaThis hasn't been the case in Atlantic City at all.
The dealers force me to play my rightmost hand first, regardless of bet size. Maybe they are just not properly trained.
My guess is that few people request to play two hands on TCP. A lot of casinos will not allow two hands on carnival poker games. Of course, the main exception is PaiGow Poker. But nearly any casino I've heard someone to ask to play two hands on a carnival game will not allow that.
Quote: TiltpoulMy guess is that few people request to play two hands on TCP. A lot of casinos will not allow two hands on carnival poker games. Of course, the main exception is PaiGow Poker. But nearly any casino I've heard someone to ask to play two hands on a carnival game will not allow that.
I would estimate that greater than half of 3CP players in AC prefer to play more than one hand at a time. The two most common configurations of tables I have played in the last six months are three players playing two hands each, or two players playing two hands each, with one player playing one hand.
I was thinking about Pai Gow Poker when I made my statement.
I've never played 3CP, so I don't know the normal procedures, etc.
Quote: DJTeddyBear
If they are the same bet value, the casino will let you play either hand first.
The Borg used to have these hard plastic waffle things on the Pai Gow tables to dictate what hand to play first. Higher bet first, with "lower # seat" (hand to the player's left) if both bets were the same.
I used to screw with them by betting 25 (yellow/red) on one and 20 (4 x red) on the other and mix up which was which.. I miss those days.
As to a strategy... Here you go It looks like if you can discount 3 big cards, you can achieve a slightly better EV (that is, lose slightly less) by playing the hand. If you can discount ALL the big cards (good luck with that), you can even eek out a small positive EV by staying in with crap, since the dealer will have such a hard time qualifying.
So in playing with this strategy calculator, it turns out the deviations from the standard playing strategy of q-6-4 and above are IMMENSE when you know your first hand.
The next issue, I guess, is figuring out what the bet spreads do to the overall EV. Though I suspect you'd have to jack up that second hand a lot and not have the casino notice what you're doing and ask you to play the bigger bet first. I should also note that it's not difficult at all to get a look at several other cards in this game when seated at the middle of the table. Players make no efforts to protect their hands and some actually make a show out of squeezing their cards for neighbors to see.
But look at this difference in EV vs the standard play of folding:
Quote: andysifi am sure i am not the first one to think of this, but if the advantage is big enough, why not call a couple of friends and group play? I will guess that no matter how much info you know, you still can't get over the house edge.
I think you are correct. i think you'd need knowledge of most of the hands out, and also a computer, which is illegal.
But I am interested in these strategy deviations for known cards -- they can be incorporated into advantage play when combined with a dealer who is lazy about her hole card, and they're also useful for casual play.
Quote:Good question. In Stanley Ko's booklet "Mastering Three Card Poker", he says that if you had a concealed computer to take maximum advantage of the information then seeing the first hand would lower the house edge from 3.37% to 3.31% on the second hand. Even if you could see all seven hands at the table the house edge would still be 2.32%
However, it then occurred to me that a better idea might be that in knowing how many high cards (queens, kings, aces) were being used by the other players at the table, could that information reduce the possibility of the dealer qualifying with a queen high. I never got around to doing any math or running a simulation for this, as I then became infatuated with craps, developed my winning craps system, and retired peacefully.
So, the question to the mathematicians would be: if I only know my own hand, I should have some sense of the probability of the dealer having a qualifying hand. Optimally, it's already been shown that a Q-6-4 hand, and that if I only have, say, Jack high, I should fold. However, if I know that all 12 of the other high cards are out in the other players' hands, does that change the probability of the dealer qualifying and make my Jack high, or worse, more playable. If the probability that the dealer qualifies becomes low enough, it might be worth the risk.
Instinctively, I feel that reducing the number of high cards available for the dealer also means the dealer would have a better shot at a straight, small pair, or whatever, and thus the probability of qualifying may not be reduced, if at all, significantly enough to change by betting habits. But I would be curious if anybody wants to do the math.
Quote: konceptum
So, the question to the mathematicians would be: if I only know my own hand, I should have some sense of the probability of the dealer having a qualifying hand. Optimally, it's already been shown that a Q-6-4 hand, and that if I only have, say, Jack high, I should fold. However, if I know that all 12 of the other high cards are out in the other players' hands, does that change the probability of the dealer qualifying and make my Jack high, or worse, more playable. If the probability that the dealer qualifies becomes low enough, it might be worth the risk.
Instinctively, I feel that reducing the number of high cards available for the dealer also means the dealer would have a better shot at a straight, small pair, or whatever, and thus the probability of qualifying may not be reduced, if at all, significantly enough to change by betting habits. But I would be curious if anybody wants to do the math.
You should raise with no hand whenever dealer's probability of qualifying is 2/3 or lower, because at the breakeven point:
EV = 1*1/3 - 2*2/3 = -1, which is the same as the EV of folding.
Using the web calculator mentioned above, it is easy to find situations where dealer's probability to qualify is less than 2/3, and thus you should raise with any garbage.
For example: Jc Tc 5h, other seen cards: Q Q K, EV of Raise: -0.957708, Fold: -1.00000
Looks like just seeing three high cards on other hands (Q or higher) is enough to raise with garbage.
Quote: konceptumA number of years ago when I became infatuated with three card poker, I wrote a simulation to determine if knowing other cards on the table could improve my chances of winning. I didn't compute things in terms of house edge, since that wasn't of much use to me, but I did figure out that only knowing one other hand provided very little assistance. Sitting at a full table and knowing all the other hands did provide me with a very very slight advantage, in that I could reduce the optimum starting hand from Q-6-4 down to something, which I don't remember exactly, but it was still Queen high. In other words, even knowing all the other hands, I wasn't able to improve my chances of winning that much.
However, it then occurred to me that a better idea might be that in knowing how many high cards (queens, kings, aces) were being used by the other players at the table, could that information reduce the possibility of the dealer qualifying with a queen high. I never got around to doing any math or running a simulation for this, as I then became infatuated with craps, developed my winning craps system, and retired peacefully.
...
Interesting. You mentioned you wrote a simulation to determine if knowing other cards on the table could improve you chance. Then you mentioned a better idea is to know how many high cards were out. I thought the "other cards" were meant to be "high cards" in the first place. After all, why would you want to track the 4s or 7s anyway?
As I mentioned, I did find that the minimum playable hand did change slightly, based on knowing what other cards were exposed. But I later determined that the possibility of really knowing what every other person at the table was playing were not that great. At least, in my experiences, and at that time. I had played at several casinos that rebuked people for sharing their hands with others at the table. But mostly, I just encountered people who would slowly peek at their cards and not expose them, as well as not talking about them much.
Thus, I changed the simulation. I made an assumption that anybody who folded their hand, was folding less than an optimal hand, and if knowing that would allow you to increase or decrease the minimal playable hand. This was, of course, a HUGE assumption, since many people would play any queen, no matter what. I tried messing with the simulation in various ways to figure things out, but nothing every gave me more than a very slight change in playable hand.
Quote: andysif
Interesting. You mentioned you wrote a simulation to determine if knowing other cards on the table could improve you chance. Then you mentioned a better idea is to know how many high cards were out. I thought the "other cards" were meant to be "high cards" in the first place. After all, why would you want to track the 4s or 7s anyway?
I'd think that the most important factor that affects your strategy is the ratio of high cards (queens, kings, aces) in other hands so to find the ratio you'd need to track the number of non-high cards as well.
