m1a1t
m1a1t
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Joined: Feb 27, 2011
February 27th, 2011 at 11:38:03 PM permalink
Ok smart guys time to make yourselves feel clever and me sound dumb. I have a little math question. I read the wizard of odds 3 card poker probablilty page..

I tried to work it out for myself, the odds of getting hands.

Heres my calculation for getting a pair..

52 cards

The first card that is dealt I think is irrelavant, you will get some kind of card that’s for sure.

So lets say we have the 5 of diamonds

The probablilty of getting another 5 of a different suit to make a pair on the second card is 3/51 and on the third card is 3/50(presuming we didn’t get one the first time) 0.58% + 0.6% = 1.18%

But according to the wizard of odds page, the probability of getting a pair is 16.94%

Please tell me why the wizard is right and I am wrong :(

thanks - please dont say becasue he's smart and im not..:/ i just genuinely cant work it out. I did do some basic statistics in maths with permutations and combinations and that but this calculation is WAY off and its making my head hurt.
ChesterDog
ChesterDog 
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Joined: Jul 26, 2010
February 28th, 2011 at 12:07:48 AM permalink
Consider these three cases to make a pair:

1) The second card is a 5, and the third card is not a 5: p1 = (3/51)(48/50) = 5.647%

2) The second card is not a 5, but the third card is a 5: p2 = (48/51)(3/50) = 5.647%

3) The second card is not a 5, but the third card is the same rank as the second card: p3 = (48/51)(3/50) = 5.647%

p1 + p2 + p3 = 16.94%


Also, the following will help you with your percentage calculations: 3/50 = 6/100 = 6% (not 0.6%)
m1a1t
m1a1t
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Joined: Feb 27, 2011
February 28th, 2011 at 12:43:38 AM permalink
that makes great sense, thanks for taking the time to write that out.
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