Runlikegod777
Runlikegod777
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January 20th, 2025 at 4:26:32 PM permalink
I have this info from Eliot Jacobsen.

9 over 7 (natural 9)

Wins and pays 50-to-1 if the result of the hand is that one hand is either Player natural 9, Banker = 7 or Player = 7, Banker natural 9.
House edge: 8.103%
Use tags: (0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1)
Trigger true count: +6
Bet frequency: 14.33%
Average edge: 10.85%
Units won per 100 hands: 1.56


My casino puts the cut card at 1 deck though, but will this change winrate to per 100 hands, and bet frequency or edge? but most imporantly win per/100 hands?
DogHand
DogHand
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Runlikegod777
January 20th, 2025 at 5:06:12 PM permalink
Quote: Runlikegod777

I have this info from Eliot Jacobsen.

9 over 7 (natural 9)

Wins and pays 50-to-1 if the result of the hand is that one hand is either Player natural 9, Banker = 7 or Player = 7, Banker natural 9.
House edge: 8.103%
Use tags: (0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1)
Trigger true count: +6
Bet frequency: 14.33%
Average edge: 10.85%
Units won per 100 hands: 1.56


My casino puts the cut card at 1 deck though, but will this change winrate to per 100 hands, and bet frequency or edge? but most imporantly win per/100 hands?
link to original post


Runlikegod777,

Unfortunately yes: reduced pen will decrease all three of these metrics.

Is your game 6 decks or 8?

Dog Hand
Runlikegod777
Runlikegod777
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January 21st, 2025 at 12:23:51 AM permalink
8 decks, do you know what the winrate per 100 hands woudl be?
ssho88
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Runlikegod777
January 21st, 2025 at 8:17:02 AM permalink
8 deck
pen = 7.5 deck(78.85 rounds/shoe)
House edge: 8.10321%
Use tags: (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1)
Trigger RC >= +35
Bet frequency: 17.09%(13.478 hands/shoe)
Average edge: 7.546%
Units won per shoe: 1.017

I prefer to use running count.
Runlikegod777
Runlikegod777
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January 21st, 2025 at 10:28:25 AM permalink
how about with pen 7 decks, (they cut off 1 deck).


Also ace is 0 in count right to be balanced or no?
ssho88
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January 21st, 2025 at 2:14:42 PM permalink
Quote: Runlikegod777

how about with pen 7 decks, (they cut off 1 deck).


Also ace is 0 in count right to be balanced or no?
link to original post




8 deck
pen = 7 deck(72.59 rounds/shoe)
House edge: 8.10321%
Use tags: (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1), unbalanced counting system
Trigger RC >= +37
Bet frequency: 13.74%(9.974 hands/shoe)
Average edge: 6.346%
Units won per shoe: 0.633
Units won per 100 rounds: 0.872
Last edited by: ssho88 on Jan 21, 2025
DogHand
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Runlikegod777
January 22nd, 2025 at 11:35:31 AM permalink
Quote: Runlikegod777

8 decks, do you know what the winrate per 100 hands woudl be?
link to original post


Runlikegod777,

I simmed 1 million shoes of Baccarat using the number of decks and cut offs (including the odd "burn cards" rule), along with the sidebet tags and TC trigger you mentioned.

The overall edge for the SB is 7.53% and its play frequency is 11.83%. The units won per 100 hands is

(0.0753 units won/bet)*(0.1183 bets/round)*(100 rounds) = 0.890799 units (not shown below).

As I predicted, all three measures fall below those of the "14 card cutoff" sim results from teliot:
Bet frequency: 14.33%
Average edge: 10.85%
Units won per 100 hands: 1.56

The table shows the TC distribution for +6 & up, along with the number of SB wins at each TC and the SB EV.

Here are the results (with a huge thanks to fellow WoV member miplet for his table maker!):
Baccarat Natural 9 vs. 7 pays 50:1
Shoes1,000,000Rounds72,645,419 Percents
Decks8Banker33,324,669 45.87%
Cut Off52Player32,408,206 44.61%
SB Trigger6Ties6,912,544 9.52%
TagsSB Plays8,592,616 11.83%
21SB Wins181,171 0.25%7.53%
31TCSB PlaysSB WinsSB EV
4100 0 #DIV/0!
5110 0 #DIV/0!
6120 0 #DIV/0!
7-530 0 #DIV/0!
8140 0 #DIV/0!
9-550 0 #DIV/0!
X161,691,711 33,589 1.26%
A071,304,031 26,261 2.71%
81,076,213 21,973 4.13%
minTC09836,271 17,566 7.13%
maxTC3010687,441 14,399 6.82%
11540,684 11,484 8.32%
12478,243 10,511 12.09%
13336,894 7,494 13.45%
14302,279 6,659 12.35%
15237,697 5,243 12.49%
16202,579 4,443 11.85%
17162,158 3,644 14.61%
18135,833 3,125 17.33%
19107,020 2,498 19.04%
2093,330 2,195 19.95%
2172,502 1,758 23.66%
2260,228 1,443 22.19%
2348,961 1,208 25.83%
2441,909 1,079 31.31%
2528,566 715 27.65%
2632,353 816 28.63%
2721,294 499 19.51%
2818,926 479 29.08%
2914,442 381 34.55%
3061,051 1,709 42.76%


Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
Runlikegod777
Runlikegod777
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February 14th, 2025 at 3:17:35 AM permalink
I found a better casino that has 1/2 deck penetration, standard burn cards, no collection fee, would you be able to run that same sim with this info now? Would be greatly grealty appreciated
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