AP Group arrested in Singapore for Bac formula?!!!!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/foreign-syndicate-taiwan-malaysia-baccarat-formula-mbs-casino-3938776
Seems like the reason of the arrest was the use of the devise. And laws seem to be similar to the US, so if they didn't use a devise but their brains instead, it'd be legal.
This begs the question, what kind of formula could do this? or did they think they had an advantage, but didnt and just got lucky with some betting system?
Quote: tyler498Hey guys, I saw this article and it blew my mind!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/foreign-syndicate-taiwan-malaysia-baccarat-formula-mbs-casino-3938776
Seems like the reason of the arrest was the use of the devise. And laws seem to be similar to the US, so if they didn't use a devise but their brains instead, it'd be legal.
This begs the question, what kind of formula could do this? or did they think they had an advantage, but didnt and just got lucky with some betting system?
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Honestly, it was tough to get much of the specifics from the article. In theory, they could have just been using the WoO Baccarat Calculator:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/calculator/
Baccarat has an Effect-of-Removal at play, which makes it theoretically countable. It’s just very difficult to calculate without using some sort of software. Technically, Blackjack is a bit tough to calculate, but the Effect of Removal for Blackjack is much stronger, so card counts like High/Low can be used.
In the normal course of play, the limited number of opportunities and difficulty in even approximating when you have an edge make counting Baccarat generally undesirable, but with perfect information (and any sort of program to do the calculation) it becomes more feasible.
Of course, something else might have been going on. I’m just saying straight up counting is a possibility and would be relatively easy to execute.
Quote: tyler498Hey guys, I saw this article and it blew my mind!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/foreign-syndicate-taiwan-malaysia-baccarat-formula-mbs-casino-3938776
Seems like the reason of the arrest was the use of the devise. And laws seem to be similar to the US, so if they didn't use a devise but their brains instead, it'd be legal.
This begs the question, what kind of formula could do this? or did they think they had an advantage, but didnt and just got lucky with some betting system?
link to original post
The article mentions things about shuffler internals, seemingly inviting the reader to draw an incorrect conclusion about shuffle sequencing.
Mission's idea about effects of removal seems more likely.
Very unlikely though
My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
Quote: TankoI don't believe they had any advantage over the game. More likely they were betting large and got lucky. Like this guy.
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Taking everything in the article as true (which is impossible to know), it occurs to me that they wouldn't need to communicate bets from the room to people at the table if the entire plan was to just get lucky.
Quote: teliotThe game was a baccarat variant known as 7-UP baccarat. I wrote about it (it's chapter 53 in my book) -- very vulnerable to counting. That's why a CSM was used. It may be that the CSM latency was enough to beat the game using computer-perfect play, or they had some other info. Not clear.
My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
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Although the article mentions a shuffler, it doesn't say a CSM was actually used. I suspect there was not one. The whole article was badly written and I doubt the author really understood how they did it. The use of the word "formula" in the title is very misleading. I've noticed that journalists in general have a hard time grasping mathematical topics. Whenever I get asked anything gambling related by a journalist I give them a long factual explanation. They then try to boil it down a soundbite.
Yes, it was dealt from a CSM. At this casino the game of 7-UP baccarat has been dealt from a CSM for at least the last 8 years. They got hit very hard early on, and by the time my article came out they were already using a CSM. I visited this casino in 2015 and witnessed it myself.Quote: WizardAlthough the article mentions a shuffler, it doesn't say a CSM was actually used.
Also, you'll have to trust that I have some inside sources on this incident.
And yes, I agree, the article is very poorly written. Pretty much every article on this case (there have been a few) is clueless.
Quote: teliotYes, it was dealt from a CSM. At this casino the game of 7-UP baccarat has been dealt from a CSM for at least the last 8 years. They got hit very hard early on, and by the time my article came out they were already using a CSM. I visited this casino in 2015 and witnessed it myself.Quote: WizardAlthough the article mentions a shuffler, it doesn't say a CSM was actually used.
Also, you'll have to trust that I have some inside sources on this incident.
Sorry, I didn't know you were directly familiar with the game. I absolutely take your word for it.
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Quote: gordonm888Back to shuffle tracking: Is there anything in the shuffler device that produces a repetitively consistent 'riffle' that, given a knowledge of the cards being re-entered into the shuffler, would allow a calculation of the sequence of cards being dealt? Or at least allows one to create probabilities for clumping of Aces and Deuces that are favorable to the player?
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This is probably a topic some would prefer not discussed. I do think some shufflers, perhaps discontinued models, were vulnerable to players with good eyes and ears and knew what to look and listen for.
Some shufflers have had issues allowing individual cards to be tracked. There is a famous case of this being used to track Aces and Kings in the game of "War" dealt from a CSM. I've also demonstrated other deficiencies to surveillance in older shufflers. The smartest APs know all of this and much more. There is a famous research paper that was written by a Stanford mathematician a few years back showing that one very popular shuffler was highly trackable and that the only way to use it safely was to put the cards through the shuffler twice. I am not familiar with the latest/greatest protections. My knowledge pretty much ends in 2017.Quote: gordonm888Back to shuffle tracking: Is there anything in the shuffler device that produces a repetitively consistent 'riffle' that, given a knowledge of the cards being re-entered into the shuffler, would allow a calculation of the sequence of cards being dealt? Or at least allows one to create probabilities for clumping of Aces and Deuces that are favorable to the player?
link to original post
Quote: teliotThe game was a baccarat variant known as 7-UP baccarat. I wrote about it (it's chapter 53 in my book) -- very vulnerable to counting. That's why a CSM was used. It may be that the CSM latency was enough to beat the game using computer-perfect play, or they had some other info. Not clear.
My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
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these images? (btw this image format is so new your browser may not be able to view them)
BTW, it is worth mentioning that your tables assume that the player only bets when the trigger count is reached, and otherwise bets zero. This is an extreme gameplay assumption which maximizes the calculated advantage but is impractical in a real baccarat game.
Quote: teliotThe game was a baccarat variant known as 7-UP baccarat. I wrote about it (it's chapter 53 in my book) -- very vulnerable to counting. That's why a CSM was used. It may be that the CSM latency was enough to beat the game using computer-perfect play, or they had some other info. Not clear.
My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
link to original post
csm latency? as in the shuffled cards arent re-introduced to the general card pool for a few rounds?
And how did they get caught?
Wonder if others are doing this at the other casino (Resorts world Singapore)?
Quote: gordonm888I actually have your book, AAP, and was reading Ch. 53 when I opened this thread and saw your tables. the very tables I was looking at while reading.
BTW, it is worth mentioning that your tables assume that the player only bets when the trigger count is reached, and otherwise bets zero. This is an extreme gameplay assumption which maximizes the calculated advantage but is impractical in a real baccarat game.
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Not to answer for him, but Teliot does that with most of the plays he discusses; it’s just for proof of concept purposes. Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
Quote: Mission146Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
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You mean he won't look into my theory that you can beat 000 roulette with volume? Lots of volume...
:)
My favorite casino game is the change machine. 0% house edge. I never lose!Quote: 100xOddsQuote: Mission146Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
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You mean he won't look into my theory that you can beat 000 roulette with volume? Lots of volume...
:)
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Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.
"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."
article
Quote: MrVA bit closer to home ...
Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.
"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."
article
link to original post
(shaking my head)
Cheating is wrong, but only getting $12k is absurd.
Quote: Mission146Quote: gordonm888I actually have your book, AAP, and was reading Ch. 53 when I opened this thread and saw your tables. the very tables I was looking at while reading.
BTW, it is worth mentioning that your tables assume that the player only bets when the trigger count is reached, and otherwise bets zero. This is an extreme gameplay assumption which maximizes the calculated advantage but is impractical in a real baccarat game.
link to original post
Not to answer for him, but Teliot does that with most of the plays he discusses; it’s just for proof of concept purposes. Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
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Its like quoting a player edge for blackjack assuming the player never lays a wager except when the true count is +1 or larger - as if they and their confederates all 'Wong out' on all negative and zero true counts. Most people assume a range of wager size variation, say 4x, or 8x when quoting a BJ counter's theoretical edge, but TEliot's assumptions are like quoting an infinite range of wager size variation. And when he posts as he did above, he is not even disclosing the assumption that wager size is zero whenever the casino has an edge.
The effect of those kind of assumptions in these kind of calculations is to overstate the menace and threat of an AP team to a casino. Exaggerating the AP threat to casinos seems to imply that it would be an especially good business decision to hire a whip-smart, dashingly handsome expert as a consultant for purposes of game protection - which was one of the business lines that Teliot was in at the time.
There is nothing novel in the statements I am making; most APs were reading Teliot's blog at the time and understood why Teliot was doing whatever it was that he was doing. And, I do recommend buying his Advanced Advantage Play book if you are an AP, because IMO the content is useful on its own merits. But when he posts his results here as he did above I also think it is extraordinarily fair and proper for someone else (like me in this instance) to report his unstated underlying assumptions so that unwitting readers are not led astray.
Quote: Bjkai21Interested to learn how to beat shuffle machines (CSMs)? Can pm me to find out.
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How about we just get a bunch of money together that says you can't do it, maybe 10-1 on your money. Then you prove you can.
ZCore13
Quote: Bjkai21Sure please do...I am more than happy to accept the challenge.
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Which brands and models of shufflers can you beat regularly?
I'm guessing they wanted to remain under the radar and were only taking a small profit in the hopes of not being noticed. Logical to a degree.Quote: DieterQuote: MrVA bit closer to home ...
Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.
"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."
article
link to original post
(shaking my head)
Cheating is wrong, but only getting $12k is absurd.
link to original post
Quote: ChallengedMillyI'm guessing they wanted to remain under the radar and were only taking a small profit in the hopes of not being noticed. Logical to a degree.Quote: DieterQuote: MrVA bit closer to home ...
Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.
"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."
article
link to original post
(shaking my head)
Cheating is wrong, but only getting $12k is absurd.
link to original post
link to original post
Maybe.
Except... they didn't go small enough to avoid getting caught, and they didn't go big enough to retire comfortably on a beach in a non-extradition territory.
edit: typo extradition. Sheesh.
Quote: DRichQuote: Bjkai21Sure please do...I am more than happy to accept the challenge.
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Which brands and models of shufflers can you beat regularly?
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I think you scared him off....lol
