GuyIncognito
GuyIncognito
Joined: Jun 2, 2015
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 19
August 3rd, 2020 at 3:17:36 AM permalink
I've been using the Wizard's counting system for the dragon (3 card 7) bet, and it occurred to me that if the count is favorable for a dragon bet, doesn't that make it (more) UNfavorable for a banker bet, given the higher likelihood of a push? And in that case, would a high negative count for the dragon ever result in a +EV banker bet?

I was hoping to find where someone had already analyzed this situation, but my search is failing me.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 47
  • Posts: 572
August 3rd, 2020 at 7:25:05 AM permalink
You can just bet the DRAGON.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
GuyIncognitoWTflush
August 3rd, 2020 at 7:50:04 AM permalink
I did a simulation of 25 million shoes, and no counts between -37 and +37 were +EV for either player or bank.
GuyIncognito
GuyIncognito
Joined: Jun 2, 2015
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 19
August 3rd, 2020 at 10:25:47 AM permalink
Thanks for doing this; is there any way I could see the outcome of the sim by EV (-EV) per true count? Was it significantly affected at all?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 106
  • Posts: 5072
Thanks for this post from:
GuyIncognito
August 3rd, 2020 at 2:54:30 PM permalink
Quote: GuyIncognito

Thanks for doing this; is there any way I could see the outcome of the sim by EV (-EV) per true count? Was it significantly affected at all?


Nothing short of a true count of +/- 17 had any real effect.

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