Hot Hand side bet
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Poll
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 | 2 votes (14.28%) | ||
| | 7 votes (50%) | ||
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| | 1 vote (7.14%) | ||
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| | 3 votes (21.42%) | ||
| | 2 votes (14.28%) | ||
| | 6 votes (42.85%) |
14 members have voted
March 14th, 2019 at 7:56:46 PM
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Hot Hand is a set of three side bets, similar to the Small, Tall, and All, that recently debuted at the Jack casino in Cincinnati. You can find all the rules and analysis in my new page on the Hot Hand. Please have a look. As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and especially corrections.
The question for the poll is would you bet the Hot Hand bets if playing craps anyway?
The question for the poll is would you bet the Hot Hand bets if playing craps anyway?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 14th, 2019 at 8:33:05 PM
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Given the pic, i feel like there are some typos in your page.
From the picture, shouldn't the "Sizzling Six" be 4,5,6,8,9,10, and the "Flaming Four" be 2,3,11,12?
From the picture, shouldn't the "Sizzling Six" be 4,5,6,8,9,10, and the "Flaming Four" be 2,3,11,12?
March 14th, 2019 at 8:51:43 PM
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Quote: tringlomaneFrom the picture, shouldn't the "Sizzling Six" be 4,5,6,8,9,10, and the "Flaming Four" be 2,3,11,12?
D'oh! You're right. Just a labeling mistake, the math should be correct.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 15th, 2019 at 12:19:53 AM
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lol jesus... 19%+ and 18%+ side bets. Why not just have a side bet that says "Set money here, and leave."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
March 15th, 2019 at 5:48:25 AM
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Two errors in Rule 3:
It seems odd that what appears to be the feature bet doesn’t have the biggest payout. Having a 5 out of 6 as part of the Sizzling Six would fix that. It would also allow easier manipulation of the house edge.
Also, paying only 6:1 for the Flaming Four seems lame by comparison. Were it not for your math, I’d suspect an error with that and therefore question all these bets.
According to your math, it only pays 80:1.Quote:The object of the Hot Hand bet is to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 before a total of seven. If this is accomplished, then winning bets shall pay 110 to 1.
That should be 9 out of 10...Quote:If 10 out of 11 of these totals are achieved before a seven, then winning bets shall pay 20 to 1.
It seems odd that what appears to be the feature bet doesn’t have the biggest payout. Having a 5 out of 6 as part of the Sizzling Six would fix that. It would also allow easier manipulation of the house edge.
Also, paying only 6:1 for the Flaming Four seems lame by comparison. Were it not for your math, I’d suspect an error with that and therefore question all these bets.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
March 15th, 2019 at 7:57:12 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearAlso, paying only 6:1 for the Flaming Four seems lame by comparison. Were it not for your math, I’d suspect an error with that and therefore question all these bets.
Thanks for your corrections. The math remains the same.
As to Flaming Four, if it paid 7 to 1, then the player would have a 5.4% advantage.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 15th, 2019 at 8:34:26 AM
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I get the idea behind things like the "coupon collecting problem", but I'm shocked at how much easier it is to complete the 4 most difficult numbers vs. the 6 easiest numbers.
Me too. I don t expect anyone to play the "Flaming Four".
Quote: DJTeddyBear
Also, paying only 6:1 for the Flaming Four seems lame by comparison. Were it not for your math, I’d suspect an error with that and therefore question all these bets.
Me too. I don t expect anyone to play the "Flaming Four".
March 15th, 2019 at 3:26:32 PM
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what are the rules? your success probabilities look way off, I feel you are using some rules like a comeout 7 the bet does not lose?Quote: WizardThanks for your corrections. The math remains the same.
As to Flaming Four, if it paid 7 to 1, then the player would have a 5.4% advantage.
I looked at some BruceZ R code he did for these type of problems
and here is what my simulations come close to (in Wincraps - done some time ago)
As to Flaming Four
##################################################################
> # Probability of rolling a subset of numbers before a single number
> ##################################################################
> start_time <- Sys.time()
> options(scipen=999)
>
> numbers = c(2,3,11,12,7) # Last must occur only after all others in any order
>
> in_36 = c(1,2,2,1,6) # Ways to make each number
> i = length(in_36)
> p = 0
> for (j in 1:(i-1)) { # Last number before j numbers
+ terms = combn(in_36[1:(i-1)],j) # Matrix w/combos of j numbers in C(i-1,j) columns
+ for (k in 1:ncol(terms)) { # Sum each column, compute and add probabilities
+ p = p + (-1)^(j+1) * in_36/(in_36 + sum(terms[1:j,k]))
+ }
+ }
> end_time <- Sys.time()
> time <- end_time - start_time
> time
Time difference of 0.28127 secs
> p=1-p
> p
[1] 0.01147186
back to the math
what am I overlooking?
0.01147186 is far from 0.131083
as the crow flies, naturally
for the box numbers I also got in Excel
0.062168159
just listing all the permutations
far from your 0.007213
fwiw,
I do like the bets, as they are more directly related to the game layout.
Box numbers and Horn numbers
simple
I just went to the casino online and found a rack card for this
"OVERVIEW
Hot Hand Dice is a series of side wages offered exclusively
at JACK casinos that are played in conjunction with any
standard craps game. All side wagers can be placed with
the selection of a new shooter or after the shooter rolls any
7. Available side wagers include the Sizzling 6, Flaming 4
and the Hot Hand wagers.
SIZZLING 6
Side wager pays 12 to 1 if the shooter rolls a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or
10, in any order, before rolling a 7, and loses otherwise.
FLAMING 4
Side wager pays 70 to 1 if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, 11 and 12,
in any order, before rolling a 7, and loses otherwise.
THE HOT HAND
Side wager pays 80 to 1 if the shooter rolls all ten possible
non-seven values before rolling a 7, pays 20 to 1 if the
shooter rolls any nine of the ten possible non-seven values
before rolling a 7, and loses otherwise.
* All Hot Hand Dice wagers will be settled immediately
following any roll of 7."
Last edited by: 7craps on Mar 15, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 15th, 2019 at 9:25:47 PM
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Using the pays 7craps posted
Flaming Four
Sizzling Six
Hot Hand
Flaming Four
| Numbers | Probability | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.50000000000 | -1 | -0.5 |
| 1 | 0.29090909091 | -1 | -0.2909090909 |
| 2 | 0.14393939394 | -1 | -0.1439393939 |
| 3 | 0.05367965368 | -1 | -0.05367965368 |
| 4 | 0.01147186147 | 70 | 0.803030303 |
| Total | 1.00000000000 | -0.1854978355 |
Sizzling Six
| Numbers | Probability | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.20000000000 | -1 | -0.2 |
| 1 | 0.18598290598 | -1 | -0.185982906 |
| 2 | 0.17005723745 | -1 | -0.1700572374 |
| 3 | 0.15153125766 | -1 | -0.1515312577 |
| 4 | 0.12924473150 | -1 | -0.1292447315 |
| 5 | 0.10101570854 | -1 | -0.1010157085 |
| 6 | 0.06216815886 | 12 | 0.7460179064 |
| Total | 1.00000000000 | -0.1918139348 |
Hot Hand
| Numbers | Probability | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.16666666667 | -1 | -0.1666666667 |
| 1 | 0.15486479049 | -1 | -0.1548647905 |
| 2 | 0.14210640274 | -1 | -0.1421064027 |
| 3 | 0.12823774477 | -1 | -0.1282377448 |
| 4 | 0.11308227693 | -1 | -0.1130822769 |
| 5 | 0.09645525120 | -1 | -0.0964552512 |
| 6 | 0.07821985752 | -1 | -0.07821985752 |
| 7 | 0.05845341082 | -1 | -0.05845341082 |
| 8 | 0.03789744720 | -1 | -0.0378974472 |
| 9 | 0.01875844756 | 20 | 0.3751689512 |
| 10 | 0.00525770410 | 80 | 0.4206163277 |
| Total | 1.00000000000 | -0.1801985695 |
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
March 16th, 2019 at 3:21:39 PM
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Your wizardofodds.com page states the Sizzling 6 pays 110 to 1.
March 16th, 2019 at 6:58:00 PM
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do you have your solution available in Google sheets?Quote: mipletUsing the pays 7craps posted
Flaming Four
thanks
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 16th, 2019 at 7:45:27 PM
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Yes. I just edited my all tall small one.Quote: 7crapsdo you have your solution available in Google sheets?
thanks
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M1Kjf9EQUIg_TLc6XDKCqVoyz4_8JfpgBeFkzLlEsJ0 .
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
March 17th, 2019 at 7:58:38 AM
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great. thanks for sharing that.Quote: mipletYes. I just edited my all tall small one.
I had 'that' file in a folder and it did not look like mine and I could not remember who did it 1st that way. I used permutations as I remember I was asked if I could do it that way, but my file is much larger than yours at 17MB.
Now to see what the Wizard was actually up to.
maybe he was watching, at the same time,
a video by the Mathologer
A negative times a negative is a ... ?
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 17th, 2019 at 7:14:40 PM
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the Wizard will have to change his post the 4 extreme outside numbers pay 70 to 1 and the box numbers pay 12 to 1 !
March 17th, 2019 at 7:54:17 PM
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and re-do his probabilities too.Quote: cptavethe Wizard will have to change his post the 4 extreme outside numbers pay 70 to 1 and the box numbers pay 12 to 1 !
something got caught in the gears when he did his page
sure he can figure it out
Here is my Excel in Google sheets for any that want to look
https://goo.gl/86NHCp
similar to miplet sheet
actually I used his as a template.
I use index() and match() instead of vlookup() and named ranges
(has some other bet ideas too)
Jack casino
enjoy
Last edited by: 7craps on Mar 17, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
March 17th, 2019 at 8:13:50 PM
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How is it possible that the Wizard came up with a HE of 19.94%
for a Flaming Four bet that would pay 6 to 1 ?
As it really pays 70 to 1 that math just HAS to be off !
he also posted " As to Flaming Four, if it paid 7 to 1, then the player would have a 5.4% advantage."
way , way off there !
(unless he was not taking into account come out sevens make this bet lose ? )
for a Flaming Four bet that would pay 6 to 1 ?
As it really pays 70 to 1 that math just HAS to be off !
he also posted " As to Flaming Four, if it paid 7 to 1, then the player would have a 5.4% advantage."
way , way off there !
(unless he was not taking into account come out sevens make this bet lose ? )
March 17th, 2019 at 8:54:33 PM
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Quote: Romeslol jesus... 19%+ and 18%+ side bets. Why not just have a side bet that says "Set money here, and leave."
I'm with Romes. Does the world really need another crappy craps bet? I suppose it's like Hollywood. If someone makes a surprise hit film like (say) "The Blair Witch Project", everyone rushes to cash in on the concept and you end up with a new (and quickly crowded) genre. For "Blair Witch it's the "found footage" horror genre. For craps we now have the Hot-Fire-Small/Tall genre. Ooh goodie. They should just take all the center bets (horn, hops, hot, hard-ways), place them on a separate table and call it Crap-Bo.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
March 20th, 2019 at 10:24:24 AM
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"Flaming Four bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.24%."Quote: WizardPlease have a look. As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and especially corrections.
currently shows: -0.185498
"Sizzling Six bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 19.94%"
currently shows: -0.191814
set these bets up in Wincraps for fun
and is fun to play knowing the high house edges.
amazing to me how often one is '1 away' from the win (got 5 numbers)
for the Sizzling Six bet
time will tell if this bet spreads to other tables and
players embrace the variance.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
