## Poll

 Yes -- Side bets are the only way to win. No votes (0%) Call me maybe. 2 votes (14.28%) No -- I only look stupid. 7 votes (50%) Depends how bouncy the table is. No votes (0%) I believe in dice influence. No votes (0%) I always misspell Cincinnati. 1 vote (7.14%) I always misspell "misspell." No votes (0%) Happy pi day!!! 3 votes (21.42%) I still have faith in NTEK. 2 votes (14.28%) I'm depressed. 6 votes (42.85%)

14 members have voted

Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 19811
Thanks for this post from:
March 14th, 2019 at 7:56:46 PM permalink
Hot Hand is a set of three side bets, similar to the Small, Tall, and All, that recently debuted at the Jack casino in Cincinnati. You can find all the rules and analysis in my new page on the Hot Hand. Please have a look. As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and especially corrections.

The question for the poll is would you bet the Hot Hand bets if playing craps anyway?

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 5856
March 14th, 2019 at 8:33:05 PM permalink
Given the pic, i feel like there are some typos in your page.

From the picture, shouldn't the "Sizzling Six" be 4,5,6,8,9,10, and the "Flaming Four" be 2,3,11,12?
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 19811
March 14th, 2019 at 8:51:43 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

From the picture, shouldn't the "Sizzling Six" be 4,5,6,8,9,10, and the "Flaming Four" be 2,3,11,12?

D'oh! You're right. Just a labeling mistake, the math should be correct.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5326
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March 15th, 2019 at 12:19:53 AM permalink
lol jesus... 19%+ and 18%+ side bets. Why not just have a side bet that says "Set money here, and leave."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 10029
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March 15th, 2019 at 5:48:25 AM permalink
Two errors in Rule 3:

Quote:

The object of the Hot Hand bet is to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 before a total of seven. If this is accomplished, then winning bets shall pay 110 to 1.

According to your math, it only pays 80:1.

Quote:

If 10 out of 11 of these totals are achieved before a seven, then winning bets shall pay 20 to 1.

That should be 9 out of 10...

It seems odd that what appears to be the feature bet doesn’t have the biggest payout. Having a 5 out of 6 as part of the Sizzling Six would fix that. It would also allow easier manipulation of the house edge.

Also, paying only 6:1 for the Flaming Four seems lame by comparison. Were it not for your math, I’d suspect an error with that and therefore question all these bets.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 19811
March 15th, 2019 at 7:57:12 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Also, paying only 6:1 for the Flaming Four seems lame by comparison. Were it not for your math, I’d suspect an error with that and therefore question all these bets.

Thanks for your corrections. The math remains the same.

As to Flaming Four, if it paid 7 to 1, then the player would have a 5.4% advantage.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 5856
March 15th, 2019 at 8:34:26 AM permalink
I get the idea behind things like the "coupon collecting problem", but I'm shocked at how much easier it is to complete the 4 most difficult numbers vs. the 6 easiest numbers.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Also, paying only 6:1 for the Flaming Four seems lame by comparison. Were it not for your math, I’d suspect an error with that and therefore question all these bets.

Me too. I don t expect anyone to play the "Flaming Four".
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1733
Thanks for this post from:
March 15th, 2019 at 3:26:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks for your corrections. The math remains the same.

As to Flaming Four, if it paid 7 to 1, then the player would have a 5.4% advantage.

what are the rules? your success probabilities look way off, I feel you are using some rules like a comeout 7 the bet does not lose?

I looked at some BruceZ R code he did for these type of problems
and here is what my simulations come close to (in Wincraps - done some time ago)

As to Flaming Four
` ##################################################################> # Probability of rolling a subset of numbers before a single number> ##################################################################>  start_time <- Sys.time()>  options(scipen=999)> > numbers = c(2,3,11,12,7)   # Last must occur only after all others in any order> > in_36 = c(1,2,2,1,6)  # Ways to make each number> i = length(in_36)> p = 0> for (j in 1:(i-1)) {                # Last number before j numbers+   terms = combn(in_36[1:(i-1)],j)   # Matrix w/combos of j numbers in C(i-1,j) columns+   for (k in 1:ncol(terms)) {        # Sum each column, compute and add probabilities +     p = p + (-1)^(j+1) * in_36/(in_36 + sum(terms[1:j,k]))+   }+ }> end_time <- Sys.time()>     time <- end_time - start_time>     timeTime difference of 0.28127 secs> p=1-p> p[1] 0.01147186`

back to the math
what am I overlooking?

0.01147186 is far from 0.131083
as the crow flies, naturally

for the box numbers I also got in Excel
0.062168159
just listing all the permutations

fwiw,
I do like the bets, as they are more directly related to the game layout.
Box numbers and Horn numbers
simple

I just went to the casino online and found a rack card for this
"OVERVIEW
Hot Hand Dice is a series of side wages offered exclusively
at JACK casinos that are played in conjunction with any
standard craps game. All side wagers can be placed with
the selection of a new shooter or after the shooter rolls any
7. Available side wagers include the Sizzling 6, Flaming 4
and the Hot Hand wagers.
SIZZLING 6
Side wager pays 12 to 1 if the shooter rolls a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or
10, in any order, before rolling a 7, and loses otherwise.
FLAMING 4
Side wager pays 70 to 1 if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, 11 and 12,
in any order, before rolling a 7, and loses otherwise.
THE HOT HAND
Side wager pays 80 to 1 if the shooter rolls all ten possible
non-seven values before rolling a 7, pays 20 to 1 if the
shooter rolls any nine of the ten possible non-seven values
before rolling a 7, and loses otherwise.
* All Hot Hand Dice wagers will be settled immediately
following any roll of 7."
Last edited by: 7craps on Mar 15, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
• Posts: 1872
Thanks for this post from:
March 15th, 2019 at 9:25:47 PM permalink
Using the pays 7craps posted
Flaming Four

NumbersProbabilityPaysReturn
00.50000000000-1-0.5
10.29090909091-1-0.2909090909
20.14393939394-1-0.1439393939
30.05367965368-1-0.05367965368
40.01147186147700.803030303
Total1.00000000000-0.1854978355

Sizzling Six

NumbersProbabilityPaysReturn
00.20000000000-1-0.2
10.18598290598-1-0.185982906
20.17005723745-1-0.1700572374
30.15153125766-1-0.1515312577
40.12924473150-1-0.1292447315
50.10101570854-1-0.1010157085
60.06216815886120.7460179064
Total1.00000000000-0.1918139348

Hot Hand
NumbersProbabilityPaysReturn
00.16666666667-1-0.1666666667
10.15486479049-1-0.1548647905
20.14210640274-1-0.1421064027
30.12823774477-1-0.1282377448
40.11308227693-1-0.1130822769
50.09645525120-1-0.0964552512
60.07821985752-1-0.07821985752
70.05845341082-1-0.05845341082
80.03789744720-1-0.0378974472
90.01875844756200.3751689512
100.00525770410800.4206163277
Total1.00000000000-0.1801985695
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EnvyBonus
Joined: Nov 24, 2009