DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8119
November 13th, 2018 at 8:22:50 AM permalink
If you sat down at a Baccarat game that was just starting up and the first shoe contained 5 Panda-8 bonuses and 5 Dragon-7 bonuses in 62 hands would you assume the deck was gaffed?

I don't know the exact odds of that happening but I would assume that is many standard deviations from normal.
Order from chaos
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
November 13th, 2018 at 9:11:41 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I don't know the exact odds of that happening but I would assume that is many standard deviations from normal.

The Panda 8 occurs on average more the the Dragon 7
Here is what I have to offer

Panda 8
sample: 5 Million 8 deck shoes
mean value: 2.76
range: 12.00
sample std dev (n): 1.64

Dragon 7
sample: 10 Million 8 deck shoes
mean value: 1.83
range: 13.00
sample std dev (n):1.33

my Mom tells stories of seeing 10 each just half way thru
a shoe
she could be right as seen by the range value (the max number of times)

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8119
November 13th, 2018 at 9:17:52 AM permalink
Thank you Sally. This shoe only had 62 hands so I am assuming it was six decks instead of 8 dealt from an I-Shoe.

Is there a correlation between Dragon and Panda? My assumption is they would be negatively correlated but I have no real basis for that. It just seems that seeing 5 of each in 62 hands is very improbable.
Order from chaos
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
November 13th, 2018 at 10:05:28 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

This shoe only had 62 hands so I am assuming it was six decks instead of 8 dealt from an I-Shoe.

I am sure you can find out.
some 8 deck shoes at EZ Bacc cut 1 to 2 decks off.
keeps the counting Panda/Dragon way down
I have not played an I-Shoe, so I do not know.

Quote: DRich

Is there a correlation between Dragon and Panda? My assumption is they would be negatively correlated but I have no real basis for that.
It just seems that seeing 5 of each in 62 hands is very improbable.

this is easy simulated once we know how many decks are used, the burn cards and the penetration.
what is your guess? (in shoes)
1 in 1 million, 100 million, 100 billion?

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8119
November 13th, 2018 at 1:55:18 PM permalink
I don't think it would be as high as 1 in 1 million but the games uses a six deck shoe with about 15 cards cut off.

It just piqued my interest because it happened to be the first shoe of the day which I would assume would be the easiest to tamper with if there was something nefarious going on.
Order from chaos
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
Thanks for this post from:
November 16th, 2018 at 3:18:02 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I don't think it would be as high as 1 in 1 million but the games uses a six deck shoe with about 15 cards cut off.

1 in a million does sound quite high.

Sally asked me to look at her vba code in Excel (she went on vacation)
as it was not working correctly for the Dragon 7 and Panda 8 bets.
It was a very simple fix (now working perfectly) and I am expanding the code for her so more data all at once can be seen for a few seconds more of simulation time for EZ Baccarat. There seems to be a lack of data for EZ Baccarat.
The Panda 8 bet was a great addition as it lowered the probability of Player winning that was greater than the Banker winning. I think it gave a feel of regular Baccarat back to this variation.

Here are the results (all 10 million shoe simulations)
for 6 decks and 15 cards cutoff
exactly 5 and 5, the simulations shows about 1 in 4,062 shoes
for 'at least 5' and 'at least 5', it lowers to about 1 in 2,326 shoes

This is about the same as seeing a banker win streak of 12 or longer at 8 deck EZ Baccarat

just to compare with a normal EZ Baccarat shoe
for 8 decks and 15 cards cutoff (numbers should be lower)
exactly 5 and 5, the simulations shows about 1 in 504 shoes
for 'at least 5' and 'at least 5', it lowers to about 1 in 232 shoes

Quote: DRich

It just piqued my interest because it happened to be the first shoe of the day which I would assume would be the easiest to tamper with if there was something nefarious going on.

Anything is possible. Are you sure this is 6 decks?

I have yet to see any EZ Baccarat tables using 6 decks, not that they can't use 6 decks and I was not actually looking for that variation of the game.

I do know that the I-Shoe can handle 8 decks.
Interesting they would choose to use only 6 decks.

this might be half of what you were after

Did you watch the shoe being played out? If so, were there players making those bets every round?
I think that could be a tip-off to something not so random happening
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8119
November 16th, 2018 at 4:10:25 PM permalink
7Craps, thank you for taking the time to look at this.

I did not see all of the hands play out so I really don't know if people were betting Panda and Dragon the whole way.

I guess if the odds are under 4000 to one there is no real reason to assume foul play.
Order from chaos
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
November 16th, 2018 at 5:12:28 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I guess if the odds are under 4000 to one there is no real reason to assume foul play.

I tend to agree with you on that one.

Here is an interesting bit about EZ Baccarat.

What is the chance that BOTH the Dragon 7 and Panda 8 occur during the same round?
meaning Banker gets a Dragon 7 and Player gets a Panda 8

of course Player wins 8 to 7
and BOTH side bets win

I get about 1 in 481 rounds of play (does not matter if 6 or 8 deck) by simulation
(only 1 million shoes sampled)
for 8 decks that is close to once every 6 shoes.

and by calculation
10,411,449,139,200 / 4,998,398,275,503,360
about 0.002082957 close to 1 in 480

I am going to have to ask around on this one if this really happens that often.
I have yet to play EZ Baccarat, any variation even when I lived 7 miles from a casino that had 15 EZ tables.
They are all over in SoCal
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
junves
Joined: Nov 20, 2018
• Posts: 7
November 20th, 2018 at 5:17:13 AM permalink
Hi,

I am new here but not new for baccarat :)

I have been playing for 10 years and i also won online bac tournament which was survival mode ( not based on pure luck ). In 2 weeks, whoever had the highest real money winning won the tournament and i was rank 1.

I will give you my system here :

1. I use positive progression. Up 1 u when I win ( for the double bets i use special trigger )

2. Target +4. SL -5

So cut the crap, let's begin.

Basically, i reconstruct to what happen on the shoes i play.

For example BBBBBBBPBBPB, if you notice, cokroach layout appears for the first time. It is blue dot.

So i reconstruct it.

So i start to enter the cokroach result which is P then so on.

When Bigeye appears and forms second liner, just follow the cokroach ( the reconstruct one ). If it jumps, you have to bet jump. If it goes down, then bet down.

Try it. That is the system i use everyday n with it i also beat all online players ( iam talking about the tournament )

If you have questions, you can email me :

(redacted)

c ya
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Nov 20, 2018
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
• Posts: 3693
November 20th, 2018 at 5:45:44 AM permalink
Quote: junves

Hi,

I am new here but not new for baccarat :)

I have been playing for 10 years and i also won online bac tournament which was survival mode ( not based on pure luck ). In 2 weeks, whoever had the highest real money winning won the tournament and i was rank 1.

I will give you my system here :

1. I use positive progression. Up 1 u when I win ( for the double bets i use special trigger )

2. Target +4. SL -5

So cut the crap, let's begin.

Basically, i reconstruct to what happen on the shoes i play.

For example BBBBBBBPBBPB, if you notice, cokroach layout appears for the first time. It is blue dot.

So i reconstruct it.

So i start to enter the cokroach result which is P then so on.

When Bigeye appears and forms second liner, just follow the cokroach ( the reconstruct one ). If it jumps, you have to bet jump. If it goes down, then bet down.

Try it. That is the system i use everyday n with it i also beat all online players ( iam talking about the tournament )

If you have questions, you can email me :

c ya