Roulette question
Anyway, turns out some mexican casinos have added a roulette game with an actual, physical roulette. From descriptiosn this seems a lot like Rapid Roulette, with wagers placed on individual terminals and not on a table. I may try it out later today or over the course of the week.
So here's the question:
If I place bets on six numbers, what are the odds one of them will hit within ten spins? The numbers would be the same for all spins. I'm assuming the particular numbers don't matter.
According to an acquaintance at work, plus some visits to a casino's site, there's also a dice-based roulette (WTF?), some form of electronic BJ (site says dealer stands on 17, but does not specify hard or soft), some other form of BJ not using cards, and electronic Hold 'em poker tables (playing against other players). PLus naturally a gazillion slots.
I'll post a report on all that. It's worth a visit just to see, especially since one casino is about half a mile from my appartment.
Quote: Slotmachinefan
Class II Games
A Class II slot machine does not generate its own results. They're connected to a "system controller" which basically does a bingo drawing every time a slot player spins the reels and then feeds the results to the slot machine. Obviously it's not a standard bingo game that draws numbered letters like "B1" and "O71". The numbers are set up on a grid though, just like a regular bingo game, and the patterns on the grid correspond to the payout patterns for the slot game.
One thing that's interesting about a Class II slot machine is that a winning pattern will cause the reels to land in a winning combination, but a losing pattern will cause the reels to land randomly in any non-winning combination.
Quote: Nareed
If I place bets on six numbers, what are the odds one of them will hit within ten spins? The numbers would be the same for all spins. I'm assuming the particular numbers don't matter.
Probability that at least one of them hits at least once is 1-(32/38)^10 which is about 82% with the double zero wheel. Single zero makes it about 83%.
Quote: Nareed:
If I place bets on six numbers, what are the odds one of them will hit within ten spins? The numbers would be the same for all spins. I'm assuming the particular numbers don't matter.
I assume that you mean "at least" one of the numbers will hit, not "only" one of the numbers will hit (the chances of which would be extremely small).
Assuming a double zero wheel, your chances of not hitting in one spin are 32/38, or 16/19. Your chances of not hitting in two spins are (16/19)(16/19), or 256/381. You can make this calculation for any number of spins; the chances of not hitting are (16/19) to the nth power, where n is the number of spins. The chances of hitting are 1-(16/19)n, again, where n is the number of spins.
above posts are correct
Formula for a 00 wheel is: 1-((1-(p/38))^n) where n=# of spins and p=# of numbers
Formula for a 0 wheel is: 1-((1-(p/37))^n) where n=# of spins and p=# of numbers
Roulette Probability Table for 1/38 (00 wheel)
| Roulette probability | 1/38 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spins | Single # chance | Split bet (2 numbers) | Street bet (3 # chance) | corner bet (4 # chance) | 5#s | Line Bet (6 # chance) | Dozen bet (12 # chance) | Even Money 18 numbers | Spins |
| 1 | 2.632% | 5.263% | 7.895% | 10.526% | 13.158% | 15.789% | 31.579% | 47.368% | 1 |
| 2 | 5.194% | 10.249% | 15.166% | 19.945% | 24.584% | 29.086% | 53.186% | 72.299% | 2 |
| 3 | 7.689% | 14.973% | 21.864% | 28.371% | 34.508% | 40.283% | 67.969% | 85.421% | 3 |
| 4 | 10.118% | 19.448% | 28.032% | 35.911% | 43.125% | 49.712% | 78.084% | 92.327% | 4 |
| 5 | 12.483% | 23.688% | 33.714% | 42.658% | 50.609% | 57.652% | 85.005% | 95.961% | 5 |
| 6 | 14.786% | 27.704% | 38.947% | 48.694% | 57.107% | 64.339% | 89.740% | 97.874% | 6 |
| 7 | 17.029% | 31.509% | 43.767% | 54.094% | 62.751% | 69.969% | 92.980% | 98.881% | 7 |
| 8 | 19.212% | 35.114% | 48.206% | 58.926% | 67.652% | 74.711% | 95.197% | 99.411% | 8 |
| 9 | 21.338% | 38.529% | 52.295% | 63.250% | 71.909% | 78.704% | 96.714% | 99.690% | 9 |
| 10 | 23.408% | 41.764% | 56.062% | 67.118% | 75.605% | 82.067% | 97.751% | 99.837% | 10 |
How about a table so one can copy and keep.
you may view my blog for 200 spin Roulette Probability Tables, both 00 and single 0 wheels
HERE
Quote: Nareed...If I place bets on six numbers, what are the odds one of them will hit within ten spins? The numbers would be the same for all spins. I'm assuming the particular numbers don't matter...
The probability that you'll get paid at least once while betting six numbers for ten spins is 82%. See nope27's table above. (And it's 83% for a single-zero wheel.)
Quote: pacomartinI was under the impression that Mexican law only permitted slot machines that are Class II. I don't think that the game is Rapid Roulette.
That's what I thought, too. And that's why I've not bothered to visit any casinos here. But the description I heard from the guy at work, and what the websites describe, support something along the lines fo Rapid Roulette, perhaps without an actual dealer.
I suppose I could research the law and see what it says, but the prospect just doesn't appeal to me.
Quote: ChesterDogThe probability that you'll get paid at least once while betting six numbers for ten spins is 82%. See nope27's table above. (And it's 83% for a single-zero wheel.)
Yeah, but if you get paid just once, you're losing 24 units net.
You maximize your variance by concentrating your money on one number. For example, 20 $5 bets on a single number and 20 bets of $1 each on five different numbers have the same expected loss, but the standard deviation is over twice as high for the single-numbers bets. The only attractive thing to me about roulette is the 35:1 payoff combined with the 5.26% HA; in craps, the biggest payoff is is 30:1 for the 2 or 12 (excluding the Fire Bet), and they have almost a 14% HA. SD for boxcars is 5.09 X the bet, 5.76 in roulette single numbers.
I have almost never played roulette, but pacomartin pointed out in a comment to one of my blogs the relatively low cost of high variance in roulette. During my recent Reno trip I did buy $40 worth of chips at a roulette table and bet $5 at a time on number 32; I lost them all, but that's hardly a fair test.
If you make 20 single-number bets, there's a 41.3% chance of coming out ahead, because you only need one hit to win 16 units; of course, that means the probability is .5866 that you will lose all the bets. There's about one chance in 11 that you will win more than once, netting 52 or more units.
If I go out to Cache Creek tonight, I think I'll buy $100 worth of roulette chips and bet $5 up to 20 times. If I win, I will set aside the $175 and play with what's left of the $100.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabin
If you make 20 single-number bets, there's a 41.3% chance of coming out ahead, because you only need one hit to win 16 units; of course, that means the probability is .5866 that you will lose all the bets. There's about one chance in 11 that you will win more than once, netting 52 or more units.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Nicely made example!
I would use a bankroll of $130 and do 26 spins. That would give me a 50.01% chance of coming out ahead, more than a 50% better chance of 2 wins or more
and more than doubling my chance of hitting 3 or more wins. Of course, my net win would be lower attempting more spins, but I would stop playing IF I hit 3 times!
The table below shows goatcabin's possible results of at least 1 win or more making a $5 bet straight-up on 1 number.
Let us know how well you did! Good luck!
| 20 1 # bets | wins (or more) | Prob | 1 in | net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41.34% | 3.2 | 80 | |
| 2 | 9.63% | 12.3 | 260 | |
| 3 | 1.49% | 75.7 | 440 | |
| 4 | 0.17% | 659.4 | 620 | |
| 26 1 # bets | 1 | 50.01% | 2.8 | 50 |
| 2 | 14.88% | 8.4 | 230 | |
| 3 | 3.02% | 39 | 410 | |
| 4 | 0.45% | 250.8 | 590 | |
| 28 1 # bets | 1 | 52.61% | 2.8 | 40 |
| 2 | 16.74% | 7.6 | 220 | |
| 3 | 3.66% | 32.6 | 400 | |
| 4 | 0.59% | 193.1 | 580 | |
| 30 1 # bets | 1 | 55.07% | 2.7 | 30 |
| 2 | 18.64% | 7 | 210 | |
| 3 | 4.36% | 27.8 | 390 | |
| 4 | 0.76% | 152.2 | 570 | |
| 33 1 # bets | 1 | 58.52% | 2.7 | 15 |
| 2 | 21.53% | 6.3 | 195 | |
| 3 | 5.54% | 22.4 | 375 | |
| 4 | 1.07% | 110.4 | 555 | |
| 35 1 # bets | 1 | 60.68% | 2.7 | 5 |
| 2 | 23.48% | 5.9 | 185 | |
| 3 | 6.39% | 19.7 | 365 | |
| 4 | 1.31% | 91.0 | 545 |
Quote: goatcabinYeah, but if you get paid just once, you're losing 24 units net.
I hadn't thought of that.
On the other hand I enjoy myself mroe if I win every few spins even if I don't win as much. I know that's not right, but enjoyment counts for a great deal when gambling.
I've been trying online simulators, but thus far I mostly have bet corners. I guess that's even worse in lost units.
Quote: NareedI hadn't thought of that.
On the other hand I enjoy myself mroe if I win every few spins even if I don't win as much. I know that's not right, but enjoyment counts for a great deal when gambling.
You still have chances to show a profit the way you play. Here is a table for 10, 6 $1 bets. ($6 bet total per spin)
Table shows a 48.44% chance of a $12 profit or more.
| 10-6 $1 number bets | exact win | WINS | (or more) | 1 in | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.93% | 0 | 100.00% | 5.6 | -60 | |
| 33.63% | 1 | 82.07% | 3 | -24 | |
| 28.37% | 2 | 48.44% | 3.5 | 12 | |
| 14.19% | 3 | 20.07% | 7 | 48 | |
| 4.65% | 4 | 5.88% | 21.5 | 84 | |
| 1.05% | 5 | 1.23% | 95.5 | 120 |
Quote: nope27You still have chances to show a profit the way you play. Here is a table for 10, 6 $1 bets. ($6 bet total per spin)
Table shows a 48.44% chance of a $12 profit or more.
Thanks.
The more I look at roulette the better it looks.
BTW I won't be able to scout the casino tonight, because I need to get up early tomorrow for an unexpected business trip.
Quote: Nareedthere's also a dice-based roulette (WTF?),
Craps/Roulette. I don't get it, either. I like Craps and I like Roulette, but I don't like Craps/Roulette. It's like they took everything good out of both games and combined what was left. Maybe just my opinion.
Quote: pacomartinI was under the impression that Mexican law only permitted slot machines that are Class II. I don't think that the game is Rapid Roulette.
Last I heard, casino gambling of any sort was not yet legal in Tijuana, but there's the casino there anyway. My understanding has always been that it keeps its doors open because it is owned by Carlos Slim, and Carlos Slim gets to do whatever he wants. I haven't been to TJ in a few years, but that's what the newspapers were saying circa 2007-2008.
Quote: heatherCraps/Roulette. I don't get it, either. I like Craps and I like Roulette, but I don't like Craps/Roulette. It's like they took everything good out of both games and combined what was left. Maybe just my opinion.
I saw the game last year in Monterrey, but not closely. It seems to play like roulette, except the result is determined by 4 or 5 oversize dice rather than a spinning ball and wheel.
Quote: FleaStiffIs there a difference between making 10 sequential straight-up bets to get this 21.408percent chance versus making the same one straight-up bet ten times in a row to get 23.408percent chance?
I mean it would seem that 10 sequential bets on one number are the same thing as making 10 sequential bets on 10 different numbers... random is random.
Quote: NareedI saw the game last year in Monterrey, but not closely. It seems to play like roulette, except the result is determined by 4 or 5 oversize dice rather than a spinning ball and wheel.
That's a different game, at least different from the fellow at G2E who was hawking it a few years back. His was a roulette wheel with a ball, but instead of numbers on the wheel there were pictures of pairs of dice.
See U.S. Pat. No. 6,520,503
Quote: MathExtremistThat's a different game, at least different from the fellow at G2E who was hawking it a few years back. His was a roulette wheel with a ball, but instead of numbers on the wheel there were pictures of pairs of dice.
Very different.
I was looking up local casinos, and found a brief explanation. The dice numbers are used as coordinates on a roulette grid. I really should visit one really close to home, but the thought isn't very appealing.
