Keyser
Keyser
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September 16th, 2010 at 5:51:20 PM permalink
Some roulette facts..

Here's the real deal on past spins influencing future spins. The following information is based on a REAL ROULETTE WHEEL WITH A LIVE DEALER. On these wheels the rotor did NOT alternate spin direction- (every other spin like they do in EU).

The following information does NOT pertain to an RNG based wheel or the random game of roulette. In other words, no electronic machines.





I can tell you the facts, based on my experience, as they pertain to a real wheel. Here they are, like them or not.

1. If a number has hit within the last five spins, it really is slightly more likely to hit on the next spin.

2. Simply playing the last five numbers to have hit will slightly reduce the house edge, especially when the wheel speed is close to the speed of the previous spin. In rare cases, you can get a small edge on some wheels playing this way.

3. The dealer's pick up and release of the ball is not random, like someone on this board had stated. As a matter of fact, it will quickly spike out beyond five standard deviations in a short period of time for most dealers, if you take the time to measure it.
-Keyser
mkl654321
mkl654321
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:14:39 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser



1. If a number has hit within the last five spins, it really is slightly more likely to hit on the next spin.



You do realize that if this effect was actually real, then it would also be cumulative?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Keyser
Keyser
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:18:43 PM permalink
It's also perishable in that it appears to dissipate after 18 to 20 spins.

In most cases, the effect lasts for only five or so spins. It's because the playing conditions continually change.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:21:03 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

It's also perishable in that, it appears to dissipate after 18 to 20 spins.

In most cases, the effect lasts for only five or so spins. It's because the playing conditions continually change.



In that case, the effect is illusory, in that it couldn't possibly be causal.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Keyser
Keyser
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:27:55 PM permalink
No, quite real.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:33:58 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

No, quite real.



Then what is the causal link? What could possibly cause the increased frequency of numbers that have recently hit, but not continue to cause more hits, i.e., wear off, as time progressed?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:34:24 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

2. Simply playing the last five numbers to have hit will slightly reduce the house edge, especially when the wheel speed is close to the speed of the previous spin. In rare cases, you can get a small edge on some wheels playing this way.
-Keyser



Would you mind clarifying this for me? How slight is the reduction in the HA? How often is it eroded to 0? It strikes me that 2.63% is a BIG HA to overcome, and I'm wondering how often the effect is great enough to actually clear that hurdle.

Also, it seems like what you have analyzed are specific circumstances affecting spins in the past. Is there any way for me to know that I have a small edge on some wheels by playing the last 5 numbers at the time that I'm playing them? When I play BJ and count cards, I know for sure when I have a small edge. Is there a way to achieve that same level of certainty with this Roulette method?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
mkl654321
mkl654321
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:40:52 PM permalink
It should also be noted that in a small sample size (and one million spins is VERY small, in terms of flattening out the results), there will ALWAYS be observed "anomalies". Each number will NOT hit 1/37th (or 1/38th, as the case may be) of the time. It will then be possible to tease out some illusory "pattern".

It is also true that wheel bias may cause some numbers to be favored over others. However, a) this effect would be very small (not nearly enough to overcome the house edge) and b) it would be very hard to determine at what point the observed nonstandard results were due to actual wheel bias, and not just random distribution: ANY sample of non-infinite magnitude will show SOME "bias" one way or another, even on a perfectly nonbiased wheel.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Keyser
Keyser
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:42:45 PM permalink
I should point out a few things.

These are real wheels.

On real wheels, the physics behind the game matter.
algle
algle
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September 16th, 2010 at 6:52:34 PM permalink
It sounds like you have read "The Newtonian Casino" by Thomas A Bass. Great read, but even back then it turned out that the wheel could not be beaten. None of the reasons you state can give you an advantage greater than the house edge, particularly on today's roulette technology.

Keep trying though, that's the fun part. Hope springs eternal.
If nothing will change then I am nothing.

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