7-Up Pai Gow Poker

Quote: Paigowdan

We've also seen Shuffle Master release many 1,000 install games and totally dominate the industry with Mississippi Stud (The original huge table game hit), Three Card Poker (1,500 installs and a regular casino staple like Blackjack or Pai Gow Poker), Ultimate Texas Hold 'em (1,000 installs), Dragon Bonus for baccarat (700 installs), Crazy-4-Poker, et al, with the new DJ Wild doing well. One can also say George Clooney or Mick Jagger also sometimes fart, and so cannot get a date, - when we'd kill to have their lives as men.

I wasn't knocking them, just making a point that they do release duds from time to time. I think that's what he's saying the PGP vision will pan out to be. Only time will tell. The players decide whether it's good or not, not the distributor.

And no, I don't want some celebrities lives. I prefer being anonymous walking down the street and not have to hide behind body guards.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I wasn't knocking them, just making a point that they do release duds from time to time. I think that's what he's saying the PGP vision will pan out to be. Only time will tell. The players decide whether it's good or not, not the distributor.

Okay, true.
I said if it is installed in Thunder Valley, signed and supported by Shuffle Master, and is getting gonzo action by heavy PGP players, it's off to a very solid start that any true game designer in-the-know would say: "If any game looks good, it may be this one. One HEALTHY frigging baby here..." Most would say to themselves, "Sh-t, I'm as jealous as hell." Freebet, EZ Baccarat, Wild-5 Poker and only a handful of others have had any sort of a good birth.

I've had new games catch fire (Commission-free Pai Gow and a lot of stuff for Galaxy), - and many new games on field trial life support - beyond the help of an IV drip. Double Blackjack comes to mind. ("Terribly sorry, fellas - the Mass will be Tuesday....")

Always the gamblers decide in the end, I know.

Quote: y2d2

Was just told Thunder Valley is the only casino anywhere that has this game. On month #2 or 3 of a 3-month trial for ShuffleMaster.

The inventor is said to be a dealer or floor at Thunder Valley. The plays are dropping quickly; the table limit has been reduced from $25 to $10. IMO, no future here...

Quote: RoyalBJ

The inventor is said to be a dealer or floor at Thunder Valley. The plays are dropping quickly; the table limit has been reduced from $25 to $10. IMO, no future here...

Ahh...now this is a fly in the ointment here
A sign of under-holding...

Quote: RoyalBJ

The inventor is said to be a dealer or floor at Thunder Valley.

I was told that as well.

Quote: RoyalBJ

The plays are dropping quickly; the table limit has been reduced from $25 to $10. IMO, no future here...

The table stayed pretty full this weekend, and was fuller than the other PGP tables at any given time. During prime time it was very difficult to get a seat. Most people there seemed to think the ace-high push is well worth the dealer card information. There were a few exceptions who absolutely despised the ace-high pishes, but they appeared more or less the simpleton type that can barely set a hand correctly even with dealer cards up.

Quote: Paigowdan

I spent 20 years being a database administrator for a non-profit college, after five years as a systems programmer for an engineering firm. And two years in the U.S. Army as a field artillery mathematician back in the 1980's
I've done important work for society running computer systems for higher education in addition to serving this country.

That's genuinely helpful. I think more highly of you.

Quote: Paigowdan

I think you come off in a very false and grandiose fashion stating that your work is somehow more important or divine in any way over other people's work, - to include the the people who work in the gaming industry, or support that industry by gambling.

I do think that the casino industry has very little value to society and may have net negative value overall. I have read your combative and ludicrous posts in this forum and they have eroded my respect for you.

Quote: Paigowdan

I mean, who [the hell] exactly are you, and why are you saying this crap at this board? I don't get this approach of yours.

I have degrees in physics and nuclear engineering. I was Chief Technology Officer at Oak Ridge Nat'l Lab where I had previously assumed leadership of a research area and in 8 years I grew that area's research funding from $16 million/yr to $196 million/yr. I led a scientific research organization with >700 staff. Most recently, I worked for several years in a very high ranking office in the federal government (an office above the CIA Director's Office) where I led an important national security project.

I have served on many (I count ten) State Department delegations for overseas meetings with foreign governments.

I have been ceremonially thanked by NASA for leading a technical team that designed and manufactured a piece of hardware that traveled to Cassini (a moon of Saturn).

I have had senior scientific responsibilities in the Dept. of Energy for Climate Change modification.

I have multiple classified U.S. patents and one unclassified patent in the area of medical radioisotope production methods.

Beyond my talents as a scientist and engineer, my favorite field is mathematics. I have done gaming mathematics on and off for almost 40 years. I have never publicly published my gaming mathematics work (because I have not sought attention), but let me say that I consider myself to be one of the top 5-10 U.S. experts in this area. I have developed a couple of novel analytical methods that go beyond the standard combination mathematics (and MC methods) that Shackleford and Eliot Richardson use.

On the immediate topic, in Pai Gow Poker I have a computer code that calculates the EV of any player hand (all seven ranks and suits) as a function of the number of other cards that you have seen and the number of Aces and the number of Kings that you noticed in these cards. It is the only code in the world that I am aware of that can do that type of analysis. I have shown analysis results from that code in this forum.

I also have a wife (28 years of marriage), 2 wonderful grown children and a wide array of interests, hobbies and friends. I have a rich, fulfilling life, and because of that I don't sit all alone in a tiny apartment heating up frozen dinners and plastering internet forums with thousands of posts defending the casino industry like you and MathExtremist do.

You and your fellow gaming mathematicians live in a very narrow slice of the world and I believe there is much beyond your ken.

Perhaps you forgot to read 'How to win friends and influence people'?

Nice résumé though.

Quote: gordonm888

I do think that the casino industry has very little value to society and may have net negative value overall.

Then why are you here at a gambling forum, to be a troll?
Gaming is entertainment, not medicine or law, and we know that, and we don't pretend otherwise. Gaming doesn't have to be socially important in a "Charlie Rose" sense or add to society in any way; it just has to be our interest and activity - that you seem to need to come here to criticize.

Quote: g888

I have read your combative and ludicrous posts in this forum and they have eroded my respect for you.

I would say I that gave this game designer some support for his success when you and others attempted to falsely tear down what he had accomplished to date.

I couldn't care less of your opinion for me or anything else. As for me, I never had respect for you from square one.
I think you're the one who is pompous and combative as hell, offering critical and combative posts (starting with the first sentence above, criticizing gambling as socially worthless and negative at a gambling forum) - and that you are projecting that onto me and others.

Quote: g888

I have degrees in physics and nuclear engineering. I was Chief Technology Officer at Oak Ridge Nat'l Lab where I had previously ....

I have had senior scientific responsibilities in the Dept. of Energy for Climate Change modification.

I have multiple classified U.S. patents and one unclassified patent in the area of medical radioisotope production methods.

Why should we care about your accomplishments for NASA and the government, etc. - if you come here to be useless for gaming and hostile about gaming and to criticize it, at a gambling forum of all places?

Quote: g888

Beyond my talents as a scientist and engineer, my favorite field is mathematics. I have done gaming mathematics on and off for almost 40 years. I have never publicly published my gaming mathematics work (because I have not sought attention), but let me say that I consider myself to be one of the top 5-10 U.S. experts in this area. I have developed a couple of novel analytical methods that go beyond the standard combination mathematics (and MC methods) that Shackleford and Eliot use.

The math and gaming work that Eliot Jacobson and Mike Shackleford have done is very fine and is far more helpful for gaming and gamblers; they are far more respected by gaming because they are useful, they are pro gaming and have supported it, and so are known for it. If you had not published and can't substantiate your utility to the gaming industry, then don't claim to be in the top handful of gaming mathematicians when you have done nothing here, and they are indeed in that top echelon and are respected for it.

Quote: g888

I also have a wife (28 years of marriage), 2 wonderful grown children and a wide array of interests, hobbies and friends. I have a rich, fulfilling life, and because of that I don't sit all alone in a tiny apartment heating up frozen dinners and plastering internet forums with thousands of posts defending the casino industry like you and MathExtremist do.

This is a useless ad hominen attack, and ME and I are well to do, - and we'll defend the industry when appropriate in our opinion.
I own and run businesses outside of gaming, have written and published books, and don't live in a tiny rental apartment eating frozen TV dinners - which is quite a hostile and childish accusation to make, while purporting to be a NASA key player.

Quote: g888

You and your fellow gaming mathematicians live in a very narrow slice of the world and I believe there is much beyond your ken.

You yourself live in a narrow slice of the world if you come to a gambling forum to criticize gambling and the gaming industry, and the people who support it and partake in it.

You post a fancy resume, claim to a gambling forum that gaming is bad for society and negative, - and have done nothing for gaming.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Perhaps you forgot to read 'How to win friends and influence people'?

Nice résumé though.

Very impressive resume for top level government and Engineering work.
But zero casino, gaming, and game design work.
I don't know why he is here, it is certainly not to support the game designer of 7up Pai Gow Poker, or gambling in general, but to falsely criticize the new game, and gambling in general.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Perhaps you forgot to read 'How to win friends and influence people'?

Nice résumé though.

TwoFeathers, you are among the many people in this forum that I do like and respect. You are also the only fellow southeastern-er I am aware of who posts with any regularity on this forum!

Shackelford is industrious, intellectually curious, bright and pays attention to quality in his work. He has achieved a lot and I respect him greatly.

Babs is smart and grounded, she impresses me as a decent human being - sort of a warden amongst the forum's misfits and weirdos.

I am fascinated and very impressed with Romes and Miplet especially. Also, there are a couple of dozen people who only post occasionally in the forum who I wish would post more often - I would love to learn from them.

However, I have posted a number of math analyses in this forum (including one on the first page of this thread) that no one has commented on, and my disappointment in that has probably soured my attitude towards the in-forum math geeks..

Most of all, I admit to having philosophical differences with PaigowDan and (especially) MathExtremist. They seem to have some good qualities but I have become weary of the parochialism, arrogance and condescension that they have directed at me (and others) in their posts. I am unaccustomed to condescension and, as a result, I'm pushing back at Dan with my own condescension. It is what it is.

Quote: gordonm888

, I have posted a number of math analyses in this forum (including one on the first page of this thread) that no one has commented on.

I appreciate your posts and analysis. I think your analysis of this particular game doesn't go far enough. What we (those not versed in analysis like you are) want is the house edge of the new game. I think that figuring it out will be EXTREMELY difficult. It's easy to figure out what the Ace high push means. How exactly to program in a flush 10/9 versus a king high pai gow with a Q/10..... thats way above my pay grade. I'm hoping it is not above yours!

Quote: gordonm888

TwoFeathers, you are among the many people in this forum that I do like and respect. You are also the only fellow southeastern-er I am aware of who posts with any regularity on this forum!

Shackelford is industrious, intellectually curious, bright and pays attention to quality in his work. He has achieved a lot and I respect him greatly.

Babs is smart and grounded, she impresses me as a decent human being - sort of a warden amongst the forum's misfits and weirdos.

I am fascinated and very impressed with Romes and Miplet especially. Also, there are a couple of dozen people who only post occasionally in the forum who I wish would post more often - I would love to learn from them.

However, I have posted a number of math analyses in this forum (including one on the first page of this thread) that no one has commented on, and my disappointment in that has probably soured my attitude towards the in-forum math geeks..

Most of all, I admit to having philosophical differences with PaigowDan and (especially) MathExtremist. They seem to have some good qualities but I have become weary of the parochialism, arrogance and condescension that they have directed at me (and others) in their posts. I am unaccustomed to condescension and, as a result, I'm pushing back at Dan with my own condescension. It is what it is.

Very fine, but expect push back when you:
a) Make ad hominen attacks on those you do not know ("Narrow slice of life/ of Frozen TV dinners")
b) Falsely criticize a fine game design effort by a designer that not only made it to the casino floor, but was signed by Shuffle Master and is getting serious gambling action by players at a fine casino.
c) On the issue of Arrogance: posting an impressive NASA and engineering resume (which I felt was to self-aggrandize and to put down others lacking such a fine background) - and without the relevant gaming industry work and creds. Furthermore, if I were so arrogant, I would not have openly credited and praised a competitor's game design work and success. Indeed, I defended the man.
d) It isn't enough to post or know math. One has to know game design, casino operations, player approaches to new games, merits of the mechanisms in games, and what have you.
e) If we disagree with your arguments, do not view it as an ad hominen attack, to which you respond with real ad hominen attacks and condescension. View it in terms of game mechanism discussion, or what a game designer achieved, what players may look for in a game, etc. and keep it to that.
f) do not feel hurt or soured if and when there is a tepid response to a post that contains fine work or insight. Some are blase. For myself, If I see something good in a game that others would love to rip apart, or fault a game's characteristics or argument, I get ripped apart as part of the blood sport of this site, and I'm used to it. I argue points, but I will, however, respond to and rip into personal attacks.

Quote: gordonm888

The dealer (or player) will be dealt a 7-card Ace-High Pai-Gow with a frequency of 9.4%. Here is what I calculate for a range of ace-high pai-gow hands with a composition-dependent model that I have.

Hand	Win	Push	Lose	EV
A-KQ-J743	0.1446	0.3753	0.4811	-0.340
A-KT-9732	0.1206	0.3177	0.5614	-0.447
A-QJ-T732	0.0911	0.2621	0.6486	-0.562
A-JT-9732	0.0426	0.2053	0.7527	-0.712
A-87-6432	0.000	0.1116	0.8887	-0.889

With an AKQxxxx hand, you are able to put a KQ in front, but your EV is still -0.34. When your Ace-high pai-gow is AQJTxxx, your hand up front drops to a QJ and your EV plummets to about -0.56. And if your 2nd card is a Jack or lower, then God help you.

So, allowing the dealer's hand to automatically push when its an ace-high pai-gow is worth something like 5 - 5.5% in EV. That's an enormous advantage for the dealer that the player needs to overcome by being able to see the dealer's hand and setting his hand optimally.

Getting this thread back on topic ;-), the above indicates that the frequency of the Ace High Pai Gow hand occurs for the dealer just under 10%. I think a less noticed mechanism is in the 6-8% range...players notice a bad event one in 10-11 hands. Once in 14 or so hands, while seeming a small difference, is important in "feel" of a mechanism.

The positive here would be that for some of those Ace High Pai Gow hands, the player may have less than an Ace High Pai Gow and the push mechanism may help them. Gordonm888, could I ask you to calc how often a player would benefit from pushing on the Ace High Dealer Pai Gow because otherwise they would lose?

5-5.5% HE shift to the house seems like a lot to overcome...I think the elimination of the commission on wins goes a long way in mitigating that shift and evidently seeing the dealer's hand gets you the rest of the way and then some to a net 1.6% HE. The 1.6% HE without commission [thanks for clarifying that for me Mips ;-)] mean the game would be better for the player than regular PGP...not sure a casino wants a PGP game for the long term with a smaller edge as the game's speed already requires higher minimum bets to increase dollar volume going through the game mechanism to be acceptably profitable in absolute terms. This is likely the reason Thunder Valley spread the game with the Commission.

On the topic "lack of surprise" or suspense of the dealer's hand being revealed at the end of the hand, the question is whether that excitement for the player can be substituted by watching the dealer hand reveal prior to squeezing their own hand. I would certainly play the game this way, leaving my packet of 7 cards untouched and then watching the winning bar being set based on the reveal.

I would have a tendency to just muck my cards if I couldn't beat the dealer...as I think about that, the game could incorporate that rule (e.g. the player shall muck their loser hands immediately) in an effort to speed up the game...that type of time and motion savings may provide some room in HE necessary to maintain profitability. If the dealer didn't have to reveal and check 50% of the player's hands because they were mucked as losers, that would be a positive for game speed.

Still getting my head around how all of this would come together as a player experience...I wish this game was on trial in Vegas as I would definitely play it while at G2E next week. There are a couple of games on trial per the NGCB website that are complete disasters vs. this game....sigh

Quote: Paradigm

Getting this thread back on topic ;-), the above indicates that the frequency of the Ace High Pai Gow hand occurs for the dealer just under 10%. I think a less noticed mechanism is in the 6-8% range...players notice a bad event one in 10-11 hands. Once in 14 or so hands, while seeming a small difference, is important in "feel" of a mechanism.

One of the issues with a higher pai gow hand (Ace-high) is that its effectiveness doesn't correspond to its frequency; the dealer would not have lost all to the players to save the house here with a push, as some still would have pushed in any case. By contrast in Freebet/push-22 in BJ, ALL of the remaining players who would have won now push, so it is more efficient as a house edge mechanism.
Adding a clause "Dealer pushes with Ace-high or Queen-high" would add about 1.3%, for a HE of 2.9% or so, more in line with PGP's house edge, but also slightly more cumbersome, while having both a qualifier and a commission would drag the game down, and just be a poke in the eye to the players. Nothing slows the game down like calcing commissions THEN cutting checks.

Quote: Paradigm

Gordonm888, could I ask you to calc how often a player would benefit from pushing on the Ace High Dealer Pai Gow because otherwise they would lose?

Thank you for asking! Here is my calculation::

On 1.04% of hands, the dealer will have an Ace-High Pai Gow (which is defined to include either a natural ace or a joker as the high card), and the player would have a hand that would normally lose to the dealers hand. (A dealer will be dealt an ace-high pai-gow with a frequency of 9.79%, I slightly misquoted that number in an earlier post. )

Now that I've worked out my methodology, I guess it makes sense to calculate how often the player would have had a winning hand against an Ace-High Pai-Gow, only to have it turn into a push. I'll update you on that later.

Quote: Paradigm

I would have a tendency to just muck my cards if I couldn't beat the dealer...as I think about that, the game could incorporate that rule (e.g. the player shall muck their loser hands immediately) in an effort to speed up the game...that type of time and motion savings may provide some room in HE necessary to maintain profitability. If the dealer didn't have to reveal and check 50% of the player's hands because they were mucked as losers, that would be a positive for game speed.

That's how it's played at TVC, but some players are extemely novice and insistent on setting a losing hand for a dealer to check, even when others at the table are letting them know it's a loss and mucking early is ok.

Every once in a while you will have a player who is SO novice they will set their hand wrong even with dealer card knowledge. Turning pushes into losses, wins into pushes. Saw it the other night.

From a player perspective, I absolutely love it vs regular or EZ PGP to suit my tastes. I hate the frustration of things like losing to copies/kickers, not being able to win with a strong hand like QQ/KKAxx because dealer has QJ/AAxxx or QJ/4422x. Loved the 78/AAJJx plays when dealer has KK/6655x.

If it's winnable/pushable, it WILL, instead of MIGHT.

By the way, house way for two pairs smaller than 6's is to ALWAYS play two pair behind, regardless of low hand. For example, 73/55442.

66 or better get split, I THINK without ace in low hand. Could be wrong, perhaps things like 6655 gets played with K-high low hand? I forgot what the cutoff is for the pair size with hands like QQ66Axx or JJ66Axx. Pretty sure 66/QQAxx, but not positive about JJ

Besides looking up HE math, knowledge of the house way for dealer hand isn't really useful to the player, as the player gets to see the hand set prior to seeing their own hand.

A slight improvement to game speed might be to allow the players to see their own hand as soon as it's dealt, rather than waiting for the dealer hand to be revealed and set. I'm not sure if this rule is in place to assist in game security of having the dealer's eyes always available to monitor players when the floor or surveillance staff are not.

I'd bet a dealer-ace-high side bet with even a 10-15% house edge would be quite popular with players. I dunno, say, pay 8-to-1 or 7-to-1 on dealer ace high pai gow

Quote: y2d2

By the way, house way for two pairs smaller than 6's is to ALWAYS play two pair behind, regardless of low hand. For example, 73/55442.

I've always liked this house way. I've been saved many times by this rule. Most MGM properties in Vegas do this (except Luxor and Excalibur). Vegas CET properties split two little pairs when there is no ace present.

Quote: gordonm888

Thank you for asking! Here is my calculation::

On 1.04% of hands, the dealer will have an Ace-High Pai Gow (which is defined to include either a natural ace or a joker as the high card), and the player would have a hand that would normally lose to the dealers hand. (A dealer will be dealt an ace-high pai-gow with a frequency of 9.79%, I slightly misquoted that number in an earlier post.

Thank You Gordon!! So we are looking at something around 8.75% of hands the player is going to see the dealer A High Pai Gow and not like the outcome. Getting close to 1 in 12 hands which isn't bad.

Quote: ams288

I've always liked this house way. I've been saved many times by this rule. Most MGM properties in Vegas do this (except Luxor and Excalibur). Vegas CET properties split two little pairs when there is no ace present.

I've seen various different "corporation" house ways in California cardrooms. Some are very simple, and some are quite complex.

But right now, I can't imagine playing any other PGP besides 7up. I honestly don't even care about the math, the countless times that I got to play my hand unconventional which normally resulted in a loss or push turning into push or win seemed much more favorable than the dealer ace-high pai gow pushes that would normally have been wins.

Feels like I need to run into a lot of bad luck to not win. Being dealt hands like 6622987 is no longer an automatic losing hand when dealer has 2 split pairs. I see most players losing in the game as they're betting $15-$25 a hand and $5 bonus + $2 jackpot. Most of these players claim "pai gow is about the bonuses, that's how you make money" LOL. I think the logic is that most lower income working class people enjoy "sizable" wins ($1000+?) relative to buy in of $200-$300 and $15-$25 bets. And the only way to quickly do that in a 2-4 hour session is through a longshot bonus payout. I enjoy winning 4-figures, and is the goal every time I go out to play. Although if I'm running really hot i will stay a while to book 5-figure wins. I usually bet probably about $250 average per hand, although I've been known to play $500x2 or more. I don't often play the bonus but sometimes I'll play $5 FFS

The simple way I like to look at the dealer ace high push is... when the player is dealt ace-high, they most likely will lose and has only 1 way to play the hand. When the dealer has it, they won't lose. But the player gets to play every hand perfectly against a known hand.

Only when the dealer goes on an extended monster hand streak like JJ/AAxxx and large 3-pairs, full houses, straight with ace-face top, etc. do I find myself losing. Even with a measly $10k I'd feel invincible.

Quote: y2d2

I've seen various different "corporation" house ways in California cardrooms. Some are very simple, and some are quite complex.

But right now, I can't imagine playing any other PGP besides 7up. I honestly don't even care about the math, the countless times that I got to play my hand unconventional which normally resulted in a loss or push turning into push or win seemed much more favorable than the dealer ace-high pai gow pushes that would normally have been wins.

PGP is my go-to game. I would play this version in a heartbeat.

There are many times when you set a hand and it pushes, when it could have won if you had set it another way.

All those times I've had a full house, played it the correct way, and push when the dealer has a straight with no top.... So frustrating. That wouldn't happen with this game.

Quote: ams288

PGP is my go-to game. I would play this version in a heartbeat.

There are many times when you set a hand and it pushes, when it could have won if you had set it another way.

All those times I've had a full house, played it the correct way, and push when the dealer has a straight with no top.... So frustrating. That wouldn't happen with this game.

Exactly. I've edited my previous post a little to add to that.

I'll never play any other PGP as long as this one is around

There is beatable PGP out there. And l don't mean by banking as much as possible.

Please let's not have this discussion.

Quote: y2d2

Exactly. I've edited my previous post a little to add to that.

I'll never play any other PGP as long as this one is around

Would you go back to standard PGP (or EZ or another commission-free variant) if this one is not around?

I share the prior concerns about game speed. If this game simply doesn't perform as well as its competition due to mechanics and player psychology, then the math doesn't matter and the game will be short-lived. If you and most other PGP players are going to play whatever version of PGP is available, and the other version generates more win/hour, that's the one that a savvy operator will spread. Especially since, even if the monthly win is identical, the lease fee peels off 2-3%.

It sounds like you're somewhat of a regular at Thunder Valley -- have you noticed that this new game is attracting many players you don't normally see at the other PGP tables? Or is it cannibalizing the action on the other games?

Quote: MathExtremist

Would you go back to standard PGP (or EZ or another commission-free variant) if this one is not around?

It'd be unfortunate, but yes.

Quote: MathExtremist

It sounds like you're somewhat of a regular at Thunder Valley -- have you noticed that this new game is attracting many players you don't normally see at the other PGP tables? Or is it cannibalizing the action on the other games?

I'm actually brand new to TVC, but a regular to casinos & cardrooms and PGP. There is only one table of 7up, and maybe 4-5 of regular PGP. From what I've noticed over this weekend, 7up table was consistently busier than any given regular PGP table, but there were more tables and players spread out at times.

I really think allowing the players to view their hand as soon as dealt would improve game speed. Not sure if related to game security.

Quote: gordonm888

I also have a wife (28 years of marriage), 2 wonderful grown children and a wide array of interests, hobbies and friends. I have a rich, fulfilling life, and because of that I don't sit all alone in a tiny apartment heating up frozen dinners and plastering internet forums with thousands of posts defending the casino industry like you and MathExtremist do.

I can't even remember what I might have said to engender such enmity, but I don't recall interacting with you for many months so it must have been a doozy. Sorry about that. Also, perhaps don't hold onto your grudges quite so much. Perceived slights on the Internet from total strangers aren't really something to get worked up over. "No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." --Eleanor Roosevelt.

Also, posting on a forum populated by game designers that "designing a game" is like "being sodomized" is maybe not the best way to establish respect. And then when you're called out on it -- by a game designer who has actually succeeded in the industry you're pooh-poohing -- you turn to suggesting that they must be living in a tiny apartment eating frozen dinners. That kind of juvenile insult is unbecoming of the sort of person your resume suggests you are.

Take a deep breath. If you're here to contribute -- and live up to your self-proclaimed status as one of the top 5-10 gaming math experts in the United States -- then by all means contribute. But if you're going to crap all over the hobby (and/or profession) of several of the members here, it shouldn't be surprising to you that your critique is met with some resistance.

I have play regular paigow at thunder valley for so many years. Now I only play 7 up paigow, I love being able to see the dealer's cards first. There were so many times I'd have lost but I set it to a push And there were times I'd of push I set it to a win. Of course there were times I could of won and here comes the ace high paigow push, but that doesn't come too often. The other day I saw ace high paigow back to back, but there were times it won't come up in like 2 hrs.

I saw lots of regular paigow players do play 7 up paigow now. since there is only 1 table is hard to find a seat. I am hoping they have more table in near the future.

I talked to people that work there, the info that I got was the person that invent 7 up paigow is one of the shift manager that works at thunder valley. And that's why thunder valley is the first casino to offer 7 up paigow. But eventually he or she try to get it in other casinos.

Is risk of ruin a simple calculation of house edge, bet size, and bankroll? Or is there more to it than that?

It feels like to me, that I can much more consistently win 5 bets ($1k minus commission, my daily goal) per session with $200 bets and a 50-bet bankroll ($10k) in 7pgp more reliably than in any other PGP. Maybe I'm just a sucker easily fooled by gimmicks.

By the way, it doesn't bother me at all psychologically to push on dealer ace-high. And since I don't really play the bonuses, when the dealer opens ace-high, I don't even need to look at my hand; I can just pitch it in and move on to the next hand. (I look at it, anyways, just for kicks.)

I am creating an inventory of “hand categories” for which the player can sometime get a better outcome in the Face-Up mode of the 7-Up Pai Gow game versus standard strategy for playing Pai-Gow Poker and estimating the improvement in overall HE (over standard Pai Gow) for each category.

My nomenclature is:
(L/L to L/W) means player faces a Loss in both the front and back when hand is set the conventional way but can (sometimes) convert to a Loss in the front and a Win by rearranging cards

Here are 19 situations in which the player can change his hand arrangement to improve his outcome in Face-Up. I’ve also included my estimated effect of how the Face Up feature changes the overall House Edge for the first 5 categories (this is a work in progress.) These HE estimates do not “Push on Ace High Pai Gow or No Commission, but the effects of these rules should be pretty separable.

1. J-High vs Dealer J-High ( L/L to L/W)by playing the two lowest kickers in front , HE= -0.003%
2. Q-High vs Dealer Q-High (L/L to L/W) by playing the two lowest kickers in front, HE= - 0.013%
3. K-High vs Dealer K-High (L/L to L/W) by playing the two lowest kickers in front, HE= -0.067%
Ex: Dealer: QJ/K963 Player: JT/K8732 can be rearranged to 32/KJT87
4. One Pair hands (22-AA) vs Dealer backhand with identical pair(L/L to L/W) can strengthen back by playing the two lowest kickers in front, HE = - 0.98%
EX: Dealer AT/77-QJ8 Player: KJ/77-942 rearranges to 42/77-KJ9 and gets a Push
5. One Pair hands (77-AA) (L/L to W/L) by splitting the pair and strengthening the front, HE= -1.15% (estimate includes only AA pair hands so far)
6. Two Pair (normally split) vs. Higher One-Pair or (lower) Two Pair played in Back (L/L to L/W)
7. Two Pair (Normally kept together in back) vs. Higher Front (L/W to W/W) or (L/L to W/L) by splitting the pairs
8. Trips (555 to KKK) (Normally kept together in back) vs. Higher Front (L/W to W/W) or (L/L to W/L) by splitting the pairs
9. Trips (KKK to AAA) (normally split) vs Dealer back hand with KK,AA, 2 pair, lower trips) (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W) by keeping the Trips together
10. Three Pair vs Dealer Three Pair with higher Top Pair and Higher 2nd Pair (L/L to L/W) by playing lowest pair in front
EX: Dealer AA/TT-44-x Player: KK/99-66-x can rearrange to 66/KK-99 to get a Push
11. Straight (No Pair or entangled pair) vs. Dealer Pai-Gow with higher front hand (L/W to W/W) by breaking up the straight
EX: Dealer: QT/K9632 Player: 78/AKQJT rearranges to K7/AQJT8 to get a Win
12. Straight (No Pair or entangled pair) vs Dealer Flush with higher front hand (L/L to W/L) by breaking up the straight
Ex: Dealer: QT/A9632(suited) Player: 78/AKQJT rearranges to K7/AQJT8 to get a Push
13. 6-7 card Straight vs Dealer Straight that is identical or slightly higher (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W)
Ex: Dealer: Q2/T9876 Player: AJ/T9876 can be rearranged to A6/JT987 to get a Win.
Ex: Dealer: Q2/98765 Player: JT/98765 can be rearranged to 65/JT987 to get a Push.
14. Flush (No Pair) vs. Dealer Pai-Gow with higher front hand (L/W to W/W) by breaking up the flush
15. 6-7 card Flush vs Dealer Flush that is higher (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W)
Ex: Dealer 6c2d/QhJh8h4h3h Player Jok-Td/Js9s7s6s2s can be rearranged to have an A-high flush in the back as Td9s/Jok-
16. Straight with two entangled pairs (played as 2-pair) vs. Dealer with higher 2-pair or lower straight in back (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W) , play the straight in back
Ex: Dealer 77/65432 Player: 66/88-754 can rearrange to 86/87654 to get a Push.
17. Flush with two entangled pairs (played as 2-pair) vs. Dealer with higher pair/2-pair, a straight or lower Flush in back (L/L to L/W) or (W/L to W/W)
Ex: Dealer QT/AA-732 Player: 88/KK-J94 can rearrange to K8/KJ984(flush) to get a WIN
18. Full House or Two Trips (normally split) vs higher Dealer Full House (L/L to L/W) by keeping the Full House together in back
Ex: Dealer: AA/KKK-xx Player: 77/666-Q2 can be rearranged to Q2/666-77 to get a push.
19. Quads (normally split) vs Dealer with Trips or higher in the back hand (L/L to L/W) or (W/W to L/W) by keeping the quads together in the back
Ex: Dealer: AA/KKK-54 Player: QQ/QQ-982 can be rearranged to 98/QQQQ-4

I'd appreciate comments - what did I miss? Did I make any errors in compiling the above?

Only thing I hate is the"casino style" format vs "card room style". I like being able to bet on as few or many hands as I want, regardless of my seating position. If I'm in seat 2 at a full table in a casino for instance, they will only allow me to side-bet on #1 or #3. If in #1, only on #2 and if on #6, only on #5. And depending on which floor person is on duty and how clueless they are about the rules, they will sometimes allow me to "jump an empty spot" to side-bet, or only allow side betting on physically adjacent seats. For example, if seats 1,2,4,5,6 are occupied (seat 3 empty) with me at #4, some floor staff will allow me to side-bet on #2 & #5, some will only allow me to side-bet on #5 because of their faulty and subjective interpretation of the rules. Absolutely ridiculous, and is common in EVERY casino I've played at.

I'd MUCH prefer dice over computer as well. It's not so much that I don't trust the fairness of the RNG, it's just an inner psychological thing where I want the dice shook and results set at the time of shake, so that I'm not a victim (or recipient) of a mini "butterfly effect" of timing on the button push. In other words, I'd happily accept a compromise of having the starting hand # set prior to me placing my bet. By computer or cards or dice or anything.

How do any of those player advantages increase the house edge, instead of lowering?

Quote: y2d2

How do any of those player advantages increase the house edge, instead of lowering?

Thank you for pointing that out. I originally had that listed as the effect on player EV, but I changed it to HE to make it more clear and I forgot to put in the minus signs. I have edited the post and corrected it.

Full house for player versus straight or flush for house.

Two trips for player vs dealer trips or full house (W/L to W/W or L/L to L/W, second part covered by #18)

Player 99/5559x vs dealer 44/777xx or xx/777xx

Into 55/9995x

Or (covered by #18)

Player 99/5559x vs dealer TT/JJJxx

Into 9x/55599

Quote: Paradigm

Thank You Gordon!! So we are looking at something around 8.75% of hands the player is going to see the dealer A High Pai Gow and not like the outcome. Getting close to 1 in 12 hands which isn't bad.

No, not exactly. I've completed the calculation so here are the results:

In conventional Pai Gow Poker, when Dealer has a 7-card Ace-High (Pai Gow) hand, which occurs with a frequency of 9.79%

Players wins: 6.40%
Player pushes: 2.35%
Player loses: 1.04%

In 7-Up these hands are automatically converted to a push. With commission, the net impact on HE of "Push On Ace-High" is to increase it by 5.04%.

If you play two hands in this game, are you allowed to set both of them? Often when playing two hands on Pai Gow, the second hand must be set by the dealer and must be set houseway. If that's the case here, that really makes playing that second hand a losing idea.

Quote: Deucekies

If you play two hands in this game, are you allowed to set both of them?

Yes

Quote: y2d2

Yes

Third night degenning this game this week.

Think I'm hooked.

Better quit now.

Quote: Deucekies

If you play two hands in this game, are you allowed to set both of them? Often when playing two hands on Pai Gow, the second hand must be set by the dealer and must be set houseway. If that's the case here, that really makes playing that second hand a losing idea.

Even at the regular PGP tables here, you can play up to two hands (depending on seating circumstances), given that you bet double the table minimum per hand, and set the larger bet first. No re-setting a hand after it has been set and the second hand viewed.

I think most places in Reno allow this as well, but it's been years since I played there last.

Quote: y2d2

Even at the regular PGP tables here, you can play up to two hands (depending on seating circumstances), given that you bet double the table minimum per hand, and set the larger bet first. No re-setting a hand after it has been set and the second hand viewed.

I think most places in Reno allow this as well, but it's been years since I played there last.

Fair enough. I know in Washington, most cardrooms don't want you touching both hands, so they make the dealer set one of them. I thought this was common practice in Las Vegas as well, but I could be wrong.

In LV, at least at local casinos, the player touches and sets both hands as seen fit. Only rules are the hands must be adjacent hands, and you can't return to reset the first hand set.

Quote: Paigowdan

In LV, at least at local casinos, the player touches and sets both hands as seen fit. Only rules are the hands must be adjacent hands, and you can't return to reset the first hand set.

This is pretty typical at most "casinos" I've been to, although I've played at places that force you to go house-way on the second hand. Forgot where that was. Maybe Horseshoe or Gold Strike in Tunica. (Then again maybe not.)

On the other hand, every "cardroom" in California I've played at do NOT allow setting of the additional hands, but you may bet on any hand, and as many hands for as much as you want up to available betting space per hand. You may have it played house way, or designate another player / friend to set the hand for you, if you wish.

You can also "buy action", having the "corporation banker" place bets for you on a specific hand, and you play the dealer hand with house advantage in exchange for a 4-5% vig paid up front. For instance, $5 juice per $100 action, often discounts offered such as $20 for up to every $500 and similar.

Quote: y2d2

Is risk of ruin a simple calculation of house edge, bet size, and bankroll? Or is there more to it than that?

It feels like to me, that I can much more consistently win 5 bets ($1k minus commission, my daily goal) per session with $200 bets and a 50-bet bankroll ($10k) in 7pgp more reliably than in any other PGP. Maybe I'm just a sucker easily fooled by gimmicks.

By the way, it doesn't bother me at all psychologically to push on dealer ace-high. And since I don't really play the bonuses, when the dealer opens ace-high, I don't even need to look at my hand; I can just pitch it in and move on to the next hand. (I look at it, anyways, just for kicks.)

I have been playing this game for two months now. I only play 3-4 days out of the week, my goal is to win $250 each time I play and my bank bank roll is $5k. I always flat bet $50 dollar and if I win 2 hands in a row, then my third hand I would bet $75. I have been doing good so far.

I just got back from playing 7 up paigow, TVC is not charging commission on this game anymore. and there is ace high push bonus side bet. Now I am loving this game even more with no commission.

the ace high push bonus bet paytable:

Both dealer and player have Ace High 40 to 1
Only dealer has Ace High Joker 15 to 1
Only dealer has Ace High, no Joker 5 to 1

Quote: gordonm888

No, not exactly. I've completed the calculation so here are the results:

In conventional Pai Gow Poker, when Dealer has a 7-card Ace-High (Pai Gow) hand, which occurs with a frequency of 9.79%

Players wins: 6.40%
Player pushes: 2.35%
Player loses: 1.04%

In 7-Up these hands are automatically converted to a push. With commission, the net impact on HE of "Push On Ace-High" is to increase it by 5.04%.

Wow, this is better than I thought. The net effect is you convert a loss hand to a push 1.04% and are denied a win on 6.40% of hands which means the net of these two percentages is where the bite of the mechanism kicks in...that appears to be on 5.36% of hands or only 1 in 18+ hands, that is a pretty innocuous game mechanism, much better than 1 in 10+ hands.

Once again good work...hope I didn't misinterpret the results...cause that could have happened above.

Quote: bitcoin

..... , TVC is not charging commission on this game anymore. and there is ace high push bonus side bet. Now I am loving this game even more with no commission.

WOW, no commission now? Just like that??? This just proved the original version was not working well. Of course, no commission will work well for players.

Quote: bitcoin

I just got back from playing 7 up paigow, TVC is not charging commission on this game anymore. and there is ace high push bonus side bet. Now I am loving this game even more with no commission.

the ace high push bonus bet paytable:

Both dealer and player have Ace High 40 to 1
Only dealer has Ace High Joker 15 to 1
Only dealer has Ace High, no Joker 5 to 1

Nice, must have been the past day or two. Was there this weekend when they still charged commission.

Without commission, this is a better game for the player than standard PGP with 5% commission, correct?

Quote: y2d2

Nice, must have been the past day or two. Was there this weekend when they still charged commission.

Without commission, this is a better game for the player than standard PGP with 5% commission, correct?

The no commissions just started yesterday. Also loving that 40-1 odds ace high push. Like I said before, will never play any other version paigow or regular paigow again. Loving 7 up paigow! The only problem is the seat is hard to find. I wish they have more 7 up paigow tables.

What's the math on the bonus paytable?