why is D'alembert not working in Banker bet in Baccarat?

why is D'alembert not working in Banker bet in Baccarat?

i explain how it is done first.
D'alembert: betting 1 more after loss, 1 less after winning. this betting spread is smaller than martingale by large scale.

in Baccarat, banker is surely more. we keep betting banker, if we lose, we just keep adding 1 unit. if we lose 100 bets, it is -1...-100. 5050 units. but we will eventually reach to -.... -2,-1,1,1,1,1... then each 2 hands of -,+, we win 1 unit. if 200 hands of -,+, we win 100 units.

now considering commission. each winning, we need to give 5%. so when it reaches 20.+-2,; like this, if we reach -19, next bet, we do +21,(after 5%, it is 19.95 wins., if only +1, +20, after commision, it is 19). when we reach 40,+-3, 60,+-4...

because maybe we win some hands at the very beginning, we may start at 3 or 5 units. based on this 3 or 5, we do +-1, later +-2, +-3...if we reach 20, 40...

in this way, i wrote a long formula in excel:
1) this is only +-1 no mater it reaches 20, 40 or how many:
=IF(C2=1,(IF(AND(A3<0,A2<0),(C2-1),IF(AND(A2<0,A3>0),(-C2+1),IF(AND(A2>0,A3>0),(C2+4),IF(AND(A2>0,A3<0),-(C2+4)))))),(IF(AND(A3<0,A2<0),(C2-1),IF(AND(A2<0,A3>0),(-C2+1),IF(AND(A2>0,A3>0),(C2-1),IF(AND(A2>0,A3<0),-(C2-1)))))))
2) this is for +-1,+-2,+-3, no more.
=IF(I2=1,(IF(AND(G3<0,G2<0),(I2-1),IF(AND(G2<0,G3>0),(-I2+1),IF(AND(G2>0,G3>0),(I2+4),IF(AND(G2>0,G3<0),-(I2+4)))))),(IF(AND(I2>40,G2>0,G3>0),(I2-3),(IF(AND(I2<41,I2>20,G2>0,G3>0),(I2-2),(IF(AND(I2<21,I2>0,G2>0,G3>0),(I2-1),(IF(AND(I2<1,I2>-21,G2>0,G3>0),(-I2-1),(IF(AND(I2<-20,I2>-41,G2>0,G3>0),(I2-2),(IF(AND(I2<-40,G2>0,G3>0),(I2-3),(IF(AND(I2>40,G3<0,G2<0),(I2-3),(IF(AND(I2<41,I2>20,G3<0,G2<0),(I2-2),(IF(AND(I2<21,I2>0,G3<0,G2<0),(I2-1),(IF(AND(I2<1,I2>-21,G3<0,G2<0),(I2-1),(IF(AND(I2<-20,I2>-41,G3<0,G2<0),(I2-2),(IF(AND(I2<-40,G3<0,G2<0),(I2-3),(IF(AND(I2>40,G2>0,G3<0),-(I2-3),(IF(AND(I2<41,I2>20,G2>0,G3<0),-(I2-2),
(IF(AND(I2<21,I2>0,G2>0,G3<0),-(I2-1),(IF(AND(I2<1,I2>-21,G2>0,G3<0),(I2-1),(IF(AND(I2<-20,I2>-41,G2>0,G3<0),(I2-2),
(IF(AND(I2<-40,G2>0,G3<0),(I2-3),(IF(AND(I2>40,G2<0,G3>0),-(I2-3),(IF(AND(I2<41,I2>20,G2<0,G3>0),-(I2-2),(IF(AND(I2<21,I2>0,G2<0,G3>0),-(I2-1),(IF(AND(I2<1,I2>-21,G2<0,G3>0),(-I2+1),(IF(AND(I2<-20,I2>-41,G2<0,G3>0),(-I2+2),(IF(AND(I2<-40,G2<0,G3>0),(-I2+3))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
))))))))))))))))))))
3) i have written more, till +-6.

please don't misunderstand me, i am not showing how this system works as my main purpose.
by testing, it works to many hands. like 8000, but when it comes to more, it is a lot of losses.
i just don't know why. there are many times, it comes to betting 1. including till the end. if it comes to 1. the system should show winning, because every -+, there is some profit with commission considered.

question:
what is the maths in it? just because it is -ev betting?

side note:
my english is not good, i am trying my best.

Quote: tomchina123

why is D'alembert not working in Banker bet in Baccarat?

Because no betting system works on any bet in any game.

Quote: Wizard

Because no betting system works on any bet in any game.

wow, i am getting lucky again.

so i will not use it.
another practical question:
i am visiting macao soon for dragon 7.
i will do 1/200 bankroll per bet.
the problem with me is that when i win or lose, i want to win more or i want to win my loss back, i will bet bigger than planned.
if bigger, easy to lose the bankroll.
i used to did it well in romania and london, but bad in vegas and latest visits to Macao.
how can i control my bad habit? i am sure not easy for me . then how?

Quote: tomchina123

wow, i am getting lucky again.

so i will not use it.
another practical question:
i am visiting macao soon for dragon 7.
i will do 1/200 bankroll per bet.
the problem with me is that when i win or lose, i want to win more or i want to win my loss back, i will bet bigger than planned.
if bigger, easy to lose the bankroll.
i used to did it well in romania and london, but bad in vegas and latest visits to Macao.
how can i control my bad habit? i am sure not easy for me . then how?

Certainly not by hanging around posting on a gambling forum.

Quote: tomchina123

wow, i am getting lucky again.

so i will not use it.
another practical question:
i am visiting macao soon for dragon 7.
i will do 1/200 bankroll per bet.
the problem with me is that when i win or lose, i want to win more or i want to win my loss back, i will bet bigger than planned.
if bigger, easy to lose the bankroll.
i used to did it well in romania and london, but bad in vegas and latest visits to Macao.
how can i control my bad habit? i am sure not easy for me . then how?

The Dragon 7 is even worse! It is a sucker side bet with a high house advantage. You're much better off on the Banker bet.

If your goal is to beat the casinos, then you need to take up advantage play. However, I see red flags that you are a compulsive gambler. At least you admit you have a "bad habit," which is a big first first to stopping. I'd recommend not even entering any casinos and not hanging around gambling forums either.

Quote: Wizard

The Dragon 7 is even worse! It is a sucker side bet with a high house advantage. You're much better off on the Banker bet.

If your goal is to beat the casinos, then you need to take up advantage play. However, I see red flags that you are a compulsive gambler. At least you admit you have a "bad habit," which is a big first first to stopping. I'd recommend not even entering any casinos and not hanging around gambling forums either.

i wrote some threads on dragon 7 to show i know how to count it, Eloit' way, and Stephen's way. then not sucker side bet?

for the 'bad habit'. i admit, i have problems with it. i am sure it is a small one, and i put it in open forum to show i am trying to overcome it.

Tomchina: you should follow Wizard' s advice ,don't waste too much time on all the research about how to beat the casino! All your research have been done by Wizard and other big names on gambling . And the conclusion was that no system will win against the casinos' game.( except card counting in black jack, and any other way that you can change the negative expectation to positive) .
In Asia, there are few black jack and pontoon tables. And they all use continuous suffling machine. So no chance of advantage play. There are hundred of baccarat tables and every body is playing baccarat .
My advice to you, you can write a book about baccarat in Chinese. Explain the house edge, the probability of banker and player, the tie , the side bets, etc. You will do a lot of good to the Chinese gamblers.They will become informed and responsible gamblers.

Quote: tomchina123

wow, i am getting lucky again.

so i will not use it.
another practical question:
i am visiting macao soon for dragon 7.
i will do 1/200 bankroll per bet.
the problem with me is that when i win or lose, i want to win more or i want to win my loss back, i will bet bigger than planned.
if bigger, easy to lose the bankroll.
i used to did it well in romania and london, but bad in vegas and latest visits to Macao.
how can i control my bad habit? i am sure not easy for me . then how?

Finding some winning method is NOT going to work for you. You need to study up and work on mastering your own psychology.

Best to read up on books about Trading and Poker Psychology. I would say Baccarat Psychology but as of right now there is none. Thank goodness.

If you do play baccarat in Macau make sure the casino allows you to record the shoe. Many like the Lisboa and the Grand Emperor does not allow you to record the shoe and must rely on the electronic scoreboard. Talk about playing blind! Better off the US establishments like the Wynncore and Sheldon joints.

Quote: Francisco

Tomchina: you should follow Wizard' s advice ,don't waste too much time on all the research about how to beat the casino! All your research have been done by Wizard and other big names on gambling . And the conclusion was that no system will win against the casinos' game.( except card counting in black jack, and any other way that you can change the negative expectation to positive) .
In Asia, there are few black jack and pontoon tables. And they all use continuous suffling machine. So no chance of advantage play. There are hundred of baccarat tables and every body is playing baccarat .
My advice to you, you can write a book about baccarat in Chinese. Explain the house edge, the probability of banker and player, the tie , the side bets, etc. You will do a lot of good to the Chinese gamblers.They will become informed and responsible gamblers.

i like your way of speaking.
here is my reponse:
1) i am doing the 'except'. i am learning counting. and if i learned by myself why is why, i will cherish them more. and i did more on designing and physics, shall i also give them up because there are more ' big' names?
2) you are right. chinese just lost too much money in Macao. they just are too poor in maths or science. i will try.
and i come back to add sth.
by maths, we never lose so much. many are losing millons of dollars,just too many, more it is lost by lack of understanding random things. as i posted before, by random, if you chase loss or chase a pattern, using the variations of martingale uncontiously or contiously. it just causes much much bigger loss than house edge.
people just tend to believe, after they experiened +--+-+--, we cannot lose more than 10 hands or i cannot lose more than 50 times in a day. but it is common in randomness.

Quote: DMSCR

Finding some winning method is NOT going to work for you. You need to study up and work on mastering your own psychology.

Best to read up on books about Trading and Poker Psychology. I would say Baccarat Psychology but as of right now there is none. Thank goodness.

If you do play baccarat in Macau make sure the casino allows you to record the shoe. Many like the Lisboa and the Grand Emperor does not allow you to record the shoe and must rely on the electronic scoreboard. Talk about playing blind! Better off the US establishments like the Wynncore and Sheldon joints.

thanks. it is first time i heard about lisboa and grand emperor is like this. maybe it is true, i tried in wynn and mgm, it is ok to record. i will check tomorrow if they will stop me.

it seems you know some casinos in Macao.

then i take this post to show an excel i did some days ago, though resulted nothing.

Wynn Rua Cidade de Sintra NAPE, Macau (853) 8986-9966 www.wynnmacau.com
MGM Grand Macau Avenida Dr Sun Yat Sen, NAPE, Macau (853) 8802-8888 www.mgmgrandmacau.com
Venetian The Venetian Macau-Resort-Hotel, Estrada da Ba¨ªa de N. Senhora da Esperança, s/n, Taipa, Macao (853) 2882-8888 www.venetianmacao.com
Sands Largo de Monte Carlo, NO. 203, Macau (853) 2888-3388 www.sands.com.mo
Plaza/Four Seasons Four Seasons Hotel, Estrada da Ba¨ªa de N. Senhora da Esperança, S/N Taipa, Macau (853) 2881-8888 wwww.fourseasons.com/macau
Sands Cotai Central Sands Cotai Central, Estrada do Istmo, Cotai, Macau (853) 8113-6000/9000 www.sandscotaicentral.com
Altira Casino/Crown Macau Avenida do Kwong Tung, Taipa, Macau (853) 2886-8888 www.altiramacau.com
Taipa Square Casino Rua de Chaves,Taipa,Macau (853) 2883-9933 www.taipasquare.com.mo
City of Dreams Casino City of Dreams, Estrada do Istmo, Cotai, Macau (853) 8868-6688 www.cityofdreamsmacau.com
Studio City Studio City, Macau, Estrada do Istmo, Cotai, Macau (853) 8865-8888 www.studiocity-macau.com/
Galaxy Galaxy Macau, Estrada da Ba¨ªa da Nossa Senhora da Esperança, s/n, COTAI, Macau (853) 2888-0888 www.galaxymacau.com
StarWorld Avenida Da Amizade, Macau (853) 2838-3838 www.starworldmacau.com
President 355 Avenida Da Amizade, Macau (853) 2878-8198 www.hotelpresident.com.mo
Rio 33 Rua de Luis Gonzaga Gomes, Macau (853) 2833-3183 www.riomacau.com
Broadway Avenida Marginal Flor de Lotus, COTAI, Macau (853) 8883-3338 www.broadwaymacau.com.mo
Waldo Avenida Da Amizade, Macau (853) 2888-6615 www.waldohotel.com
Grand Lisboa Avenida de Lisboa, Macau (853) 2828-3838 www.grandlisboa.com
Lisboa Avenida de Lisboa, Macau (853) 8297-7111 www.hotelisboa.com
Pharaoh's Palace/Club VIP Legend 3-5/FL., Macau Landmark, Avenida Da Amizade, Z.A.P.E., Macau (853) 2878-6233 www.landmarkhotel.com.mo
Ponte 16 Rua do Visconde Paço de Arcos, Ponte 16, Macau (853) 8861-8888 www.ponte16.com.mo
L'Arc Avenida 24 de Junho, NAPE, Macau (853) 2880-8888 www.larcmacau.com
Oceanus Avenida do Dr. Rodrigo Rodrigues no.1470-1526, Macau (853) 8801-3388 www.oceanus-macau.com
Kam Pek 1-2/FL Rua Da Foshan, NO.51, A Andar, Edf., Centro Comercial, San Kin Yip, Macau (853) 2878-6945 /
Ji Mei Casino 956-1110, Avenida Da Amizade, Macau (853) 2822-8811 www.jimeihotels.com
Diamond Casino Hotel Holiday Inn .Rua De Pequim 82-86, Macau (853) 2878-5645 www.ichotelsgroup.com/h/d/hi/280/zh/hd/qmpch
Casa Real Casino Avenida do. Dr. Rodrigo Rodrigues 1118, Macau (853) 2872-7791 www.casarealhotel.com.mo
Lan Kwai Fong Rua De Luis Gonzaga Gomes 230, Macau (853) 2880-0888 www.macaulkf.com
Grandview Casino 142 Estrada Governador Albano De Oliveira,Taipa, Macau (853) 2878-6233 www.landmarkhotel.com.mo
Fortuna Casino NO.63, Rua de Cantão, Macau (853) 8297-5920 /
Golden Dragon Rua de Malaca, Macau (853) 8982-6201 www.goldendragon.com.mo
Emperor Palace Casino NO.288 Avenida Comercial De Macau (853) 8981-6803 www.grandemperor.com
Babylon Casino Macau Fisherman's Wharf Avenida Dr. Sun Yat-Sen, Macau (853) 2823-2233 www.fishermanswharf.com.mo
Greek Mythology Avendia Padre Tomas Pereira NO. 889, Taipa, Macau, Hotel Palacio Imperial Beijing (853) 2883-6011 /
Jockey Club Macau Jockey Club, Estrada Governador Albano Oliveira No.142, Hipodromo na ilha da Taipa, Macau (853) 8297-5920 /
Macao Palace***suspension*** Avenida Da Amizade, Macau (853) 2872-7988 /
Casino Taipa***suspension*** Regency Hotel, 2 Estrada Almirante Marques Esparteiro, Taipa, Macau (853) 2872-7791 www.casarealhotel.com.mo