Can Roulette Be Beaten?

Quote: Dieter

Quote: EvenBob

I know you're intent in making the comment but I actually spent more time today with my wife then I have in a really long time. And although I really love my wife, would not want to replace her with anybody else, I'm glad these days are few and far between. Maybe other men are great at getting along with women but I have very little in common with them even when I know them well.
link to original post

(snip)

You have my commiserations.
I'm currently heavily restricted, so I have get to spend the next 7 weeks or so with my wife. I have no idea if I'm we're strong enough to survive that.
Living (mostly) independently is great for us.
link to original post

It's part of the punishment for whatever you did to yourself to get in your present situation. Just say Yes dear, I understand dear, I'm sure you're right dear, a lot. And pretend like you have to take a lot of naps. And have no guns nearby, not even in the same room. Just because you will want to kill yourself doesn't mean you should.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Dieter

Quote: EvenBob

I know you're intent in making the comment but I actually spent more time today with my wife then I have in a really long time. And although I really love my wife, would not want to replace her with anybody else, I'm glad these days are few and far between. Maybe other men are great at getting along with women but I have very little in common with them even when I know them well.
link to original post

(snip)

You have my commiserations.
I'm currently heavily restricted, so I have get to spend the next 7 weeks or so with my wife. I have no idea if I'm we're strong enough to survive that.
Living (mostly) independently is great for us.
link to original post

It's part of the punishment for whatever you did to yourself to get in your present situation. Just say Yes dear, I understand dear, I'm sure you're right dear, a lot. And pretend like you have to take a lot of naps. And have no guns nearby, not even in the same room. Just because you will want to kill yourself doesn't mean you should.
link to original post

We are measured by the challenges we overcome.
The weapons are secured. Disarmament is unlikely at best.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

That is a prediction, you are predicting the results based on prior results and your feel of the wheel. Whether or not your prediction system works is the debate.

This has been a sore spot pet peeve of mine for years, I don't make predictions, weathermen make predictions. I make deductions, I make educated guesses, which are not predictions. Imagine if the weatherman came on TV and said he's going to make an educated guess as to what tomorrow's weather is going to be, He wouldn't be a weatherman very long. It's impossible to predict random outcomes, all you can do is make guesses and mine happen to be educated guesses. If you think I'm nitpicking, oh well. I don't have a crystal ball, I don't use Ouija boards and tarot cards, I don't make predictions. If you think you're into something unique and unusual here, believe me you are not. I've been arguing about this prediction thing for about 15 years now.

As far as your other questions go don't worry about it, everything's under control.
link to original post

Do you choose your bets based on the prior results or based on the physical movement of the ball?

What is your definition of "deduction"? I predict that you are not using it correctly.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

That is a prediction, you are predicting the results based on prior results and your feel of the wheel. Whether or not your prediction system works is the debate.

This has been a sore spot pet peeve of mine for years, I don't make predictions, weathermen make predictions. I make deductions, I make educated guesses, which are not predictions. Imagine if the weatherman came on TV and said he's going to make an educated guess as to what tomorrow's weather is going to be, He wouldn't be a weatherman very long. It's impossible to predict random outcomes, all you can do is make guesses and mine happen to be educated guesses. If you think I'm nitpicking, oh well. I don't have a crystal ball, I don't use Ouija boards and tarot cards, I don't make predictions. If you think you're into something unique and unusual here, believe me you are not. I've been arguing about this prediction thing for about 15 years now.

As far as your other questions go don't worry about it, everything's under control.
link to original post

More Lewis Carroll talk.

Of course weathermen make educated guesses about tomorrow's weather. They're educated to understand meteorology and weather patterns and make guesses based on that education what the most likely scenario is for the next days weather.

It's like you have been taught a foreign language and made to believe it was English.

You claim almost everyone disagrees with what you are saying. It's because even you disagree with what you are saying. Trying to create your own definition of words!

Quote: Gandler

Quote: OnceDear

One day, we'll look back to page 74 of this thread and ask ourselves ...
"Why did we have let it drag on for so long"
"Why did we not realise that EvenBob would never demonstrate anything"
"How did we allow ourselves to be strung along to 150 pages of nothingness"
"When do we get to 'Can Roulette Be Beaten 2'"

And Nothing ever happens. Nothing happens at all. The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before. And we'll all be lonely tonight and lonely tomorrow.
link to original post

It is like a bad TV show that has been on for far too long, where you basically know what is going to happen, but you still have to tune in every week to see how it plays out.
link to original post

Like the TV series LOST. I watched the first two series, and was bought the box set to series 3. Got so frustrated that it went in the trash, thus reclaiming over 100hours of usable lifetime. How many episodes of this thread will be written. How many manhours of perfectly serviceable lifetime will be laid to waste on its pages?

Quote: EvenBob

It's part of the punishment for whatever you did to yourself to get in your present situation.

really horrible comment - the other parts that I did not quote were even worse - even if they were made in jest - just totally unacceptable

he should be suspended for this - I'm going to PM Mike about this

.

Quote: EvenBob

Family reunion weekend so I'll be gone till Monday. Where I'm going has no internet so I'm taking a break from everything. Maybe it will be resolved when I get back, I can only hope.
link to original post

it must be Monday somewhere lol. Maybe his browser is set to Nigeria so it is Monday there. Here in the the old USA however it is Sunday

EB always sets his clocks ahead by 3 hours so the sun rises at 3 in the morning for him. Not sure the Windows clock is advanced as that with all it's synchronizing it does at each logon.

I know one of the guys who does the wordle every day has his browser set to Nigeria. He gives us a heads up if tomorrow wordle might be difficult.

Quote: EvenBob

I don't predict anything, I don't have a crystal ball. I just fill in the blanks and I've learned how to be right more often than wrong. It's all about pattern recognition and what a real roulette wheel does and doesn't do. When I recognize what it's doing and what it might be doing for the next few spins I can make some bets that pay off.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

That is a prediction, you are predicting the results based on prior results and your feel of the wheel. Whether or not your prediction system works is the debate.

...I don't make predictions, weathermen make predictions. I make deductions, I make educated guesses, which are not predictions....

I don't make predictions. If you think you're into something unique and unusual here, believe me you are not. I've been arguing about this prediction thing for about 15 years now.

link to original post

Let's work with this. Maybe EvenBob will help.

EvenBob says he doesn't make predictions, but that he makes deductions and educated guesses.

Let's disect and analyse that.

"Predict:
verb
US /prɪˈdɪkt/
to say what you think will happen in the future:"

We could break down the word's etymology where 'Pre' means before and 'Dict' means to speak.

Now, I suppose that when EvenBob makes his educated guess and acts on it with a placed wager, that is a proxy for SAYING that he believes the next outcome will be the one he wagers on. Actions speak louder than words and EB speaks his deduction by wagering. He does that before the next spin. Speak, Before. Dict, Pre. PREDICT.

Regardless of how EvenBob arrives at his educated guess, how is that not a prediction: A Saying Before action?

We could look at the words deduction and Educated guess

Deduce:
verb [ T ]
US /dɪˈduːs/ UK /dɪˈdʒuːs/
to reach an answer or a decision by thinking carefully about the known facts:

OK. So EvenBob has some known facts and arrives at his Educated guess as to what will likely happen next.
But isn't that when he 'Says Before' or predicts by placing his wager?

Let's look at
"educated guess"
noun
US /ˌed.jʊ.keɪ.t̬ɪd ˈɡes/ UK /ˌed.jʊ.keɪ.tɪd ˈɡes/
Add to word list
C2
a guess that is made using judgment and a particular level of knowledge and is therefore more likely to be correct

So. By EvenBob's claim he reaches an educated guess or deduction, using his skill and knowledge about the pattern of a recent set of results. He reaches a decision that one of the following is true....

An outcome is likely enough to wager on, and he wagers OR
There's not enough confidence from the recent pattern, so it's not a good time to wager.

Is that fair EvenBob?
Sometimes you see a worthwhile wagering opportunity and place a wager, or, more frequently you don't?

And on those few times you see a worthwhile wagering opportunity, you do so and you are successful more often than you fail?

That seems to me a fair assessment of EvenBob's claim.

He has further claimed that successful wagers significantly outnumber unsuccessful wagers: A mention was made of 80% success rate.

The two problems I have and seek clarification on are......


In what way is placing a wager on the basis of an educated guess or deduction, NOT a prediction. Any answer drawing parallels with weather men or mentioning Ouija boards will be ignored.

Why does EvenBob claim a higher success rate than 50% for his educated guesses? Not how does he do it, but why does he claim that skill? Is it for Kudos? Is it because he wants us to know he's superior? Is he perhaps seeking knowledge about how best to exploit his skill. Is it cocking a snook at those who don't believe him?

C'mon EvenBob. What's your motivation?

I'm still not over Marcus beating Baccarat right off the bat with his waiting several hands between each bet because he could fathom a winner before it was dealt. That's some pattern recognition there, which is different than dice setting results.

EvenBob..... Is this a fair assessment of one of your Roulette sessions? If not, why not?
I'm aware of your point that wager worthy patterns occur infrequently, more infrequently than the table below. I'm also aware that you say that sometimes the table is 'playing your game' and might yield bunches of opportunities and other times is not 'playing your game' and so not worthy of wagers.
And finally I'm aware that you can tighten and loosen your decision about whether a wager is worth wagering on.

Roulette Display

Pattern	Is Pattern meaningful enough?	EB sees a worthwhile opportunity	EB places a wager	EB's wager doubles his stake
Pattern A	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern B	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern C	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern D	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern E	Yes	Yes	Yes	Probably
Pattern F	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern G	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern H	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern J	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern K	Yes	Yes	Yes	Probably
Pattern L	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern M	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern N	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern P	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern R	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern S	No	No	No	N/A
Pattern T	No	No	No	N/A

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm still not over Marcus beating Baccarat right off the bat with his waiting several hands between each bet because he could fathom a winner before it was dealt. That's some pattern recognition there, which is different than dice setting results.
link to original post

MarcusClark was a lying troll. Referencing banned lying trolls is not helpful here.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Gandler

Quote: OnceDear

One day, we'll look back to page 74 of this thread and ask ourselves ...
"Why did we have let it drag on for so long"
"Why did we not realise that EvenBob would never demonstrate anything"
"How did we allow ourselves to be strung along to 150 pages of nothingness"
"When do we get to 'Can Roulette Be Beaten 2'"

And Nothing ever happens. Nothing happens at all. The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before. And we'll all be lonely tonight and lonely tomorrow.
link to original post

It is like a bad TV show that has been on for far too long, where you basically know what is going to happen, but you still have to tune in every week to see how it plays out.
link to original post

Like the TV series LOST. I watched the first two series, and was bought the box set to series 3. Got so frustrated that it went in the trash, thus reclaiming over 100hours of usable lifetime. How many episodes of this thread will be written. How many manhours of perfectly serviceable lifetime will be laid to waste on its pages?
link to original post

At the top of the page is an option to block the thread, should you care to similarly reclaim your time.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Gandler

Quote: OnceDear

One day, we'll look back to page 74 of this thread and ask ourselves ...
"Why did we have let it drag on for so long"
"Why did we not realise that EvenBob would never demonstrate anything"
"How did we allow ourselves to be strung along to 150 pages of nothingness"
"When do we get to 'Can Roulette Be Beaten 2'"
link to original post

It is like a bad TV show that has been on for far too long, where you basically know what is going to happen, but you still have to tune in every week to see how it plays out.
link to original post

How many manhours of perfectly serviceable lifetime will be laid to waste on its pages?
link to original post

At the top of the page is an option to block the thread, should you care to similarly reclaim your time.
link to original post

Thanks Dieter. Good point, with which I counter
"you still have to tune in every week to see how it plays out"

I have other motivation here. I'm approximately a decade younger than EvenBob. According to my research of actuarial charts, EvenBob will have died of old age before I do. Thus I will win the debate, having wasted a smaller proportion of my life than he does. $;o) It will be a hollow victory, but take them where you can find them.

ps. I claimed back many hundreds of hours when I quit as a moderator, so I like to indulge myself occasionally getting down in the pigpen for a wrestling match.

Quote: Gandler

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

That is a prediction, you are predicting the results based on prior results and your feel of the wheel. Whether or not your prediction system works is the debate.

I make deductions, I make educated guesses, which are not predictions.
link to original post

Do you choose your bets based on the prior results or based on the physical movement of the ball?

What is your definition of "deduction"? I predict that you are not using it correctly.
link to original post

Bob makes Educated Guesses which are also Deductions

As I understand it, An educated guess is a GUESS with some extra information which makes it more likely to be correct that 'just a guess'
As I further understand it, a Deduction is the outcome of analysing information to hand.

So.... Info to hand is the Roulette results marque and the extra info that EB claims is an understanding of the patterns based on experience and skill.

Whether it's deduction or educated guess, EB chooses what to wager on ( or to not wager) just before the next spin.
If he makes a wager, and recall he only flat bets on the even money wagers, he places the wager BEFORE the next spin. We could say he does it 'Pre-spin'. His wagering action 'SPEAKS' for his deduction. it DICTATES what he chooses to wager on.
In what way is each of his wagers not a prediction?

He doesn't use a ouija board or crystal ball to make his prediction. He doesn't seem to know the meaning of the word. If I jump into a river, I can confidently predict that I will get wet. I could bet you $1 that the outcome of jumping in the river would be me getting wet. It would be a deduction. It would be an educated guess. It WOULD be a prediction.

Again. In what way is placing a wager that is based on an educated guess NOT a prediction?

15 Years. You'd think EB would have an answer that parses as logical and correct and explicit plain English.

I've politely raised a few questions in the few preceding posts. EvenBob is invited to respond.
I wonder whether he will do so as a courtesy to us all, or maybe to shut me up, or will he maybe rudely deride my questions because of my tendency to take him to task.

There is a trend in this thread. A pattern of behaviour.
I use that pattern and my understanding of that pattern to make an educated guess: a deduction.

If I said it here, it would be a prediction. If I wagered on my educated guess, I would call it a prediction. I guess that EB would deny that it was a prediction, because I didn't use a crystal ball or Ouija board.


Actually, that reminds me...
EvenBob has referred to the Use of Ouija boards to make predictions a few times now. I wonder if he understands that Ouija boards are not used by anyone to make predictions? Ouija Boards are communication devices. BS communication devices. It's a subtle difference that EB has not noticed in his 70+ year tenure on earth.
So. Another few words to add to the list of words that EB does not understand.

Ouija
Predict
Deduce
Educated
Wager
Risk
Logic
English
Meaning

That's right. I assert that EB doesn't know the meaning of the word 'Meaning'

You guys crack me up, like you think I have time to read all these posts let alone respond to them. I know you think that all day long I sit in front of my computer with nothing to do, frothing at the mouth waiting to spew my knowledge. Nothing could be farther from the truth, I'm outside all day long in the summer working my ass off, maybe I'll read some of the stuff later tonight who knows.

Quote: EvenBob

You guys crack me up, like you think I have time to read all these posts let alone respond to them. I know you think that all day long I sit in front of my computer with nothing to do, frothing at the mouth waiting to spew my knowledge. Nothing could be farther from the truth, I'm outside all day long in the summer working my ass off, maybe I'll read some of the stuff later tonight who knows.
link to original post

Knowledge. Add that one to the list.
Tell ya what. Let's kill two birds with one stone

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/knowledge

Bonus
Expert : 'Ex' is something that has been and a 'spurt' is a drip under pressure.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: tuttigym

SO WHAT!!!

tuttigym
link to original post

Is this one of those Zen koan problems that a zen master will give you? Like, what is the sound of one hand clapping? So What! It is kind of mysterious and baffling, good one on you.. So what indeed, how do you answer something like that.
link to original post

You become relevant, meaningful, and specific.

tuttigym

Quote: OnceDear

I've politely raised a few questions in the few preceding posts. EvenBob is invited to respond.
I wonder whether he will do so as a courtesy to us all, or maybe to shut me up, or will he maybe rudely deride my questions because of my tendency to take him to task.

There is a trend in this thread. A pattern of behaviour.
I use that pattern and my understanding of that pattern to make an educated guess: a deduction.

If I said it here, it would be a prediction. If I wagered on my educated guess, I would call it a prediction. I guess that EB would deny that it was a prediction, because I didn't use a crystal ball or Ouija board.


Actually, that reminds me...
EvenBob has referred to the Use of Ouija boards to make predictions a few times now. I wonder if he understands that Ouija boards are not used by anyone to make predictions? Ouija Boards are communication devices. BS communication devices. It's a subtle difference that EB has not noticed in his 70+ year tenure on earth.
So. Another few words to add to the list of words that EB does not understand.

Ouija
Predict
Deduce
Educated
Wager
Risk
Logic
English
Meaning

That's right. I assert that EB doesn't know the meaning of the word 'Meaning'
link to original post

Be kind.

Quote: billryan

Be kind.
link to original post

Awwwww OK. Just for you. $:o)

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

Be kind.
link to original post

Awwwww OK. Just for you. $:o)
link to original post

Harmony and understanding, sympathy and trust abounding.....

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: EvenBob

I don't predict anything, I don't have a crystal ball. I just fill in the blanks and I've learned how to be right more often than wrong. It's all about pattern recognition and what a real roulette wheel does and doesn't do. When I recognize what it's doing and what it might be doing for the next few spins I can make some bets that pay off.
link to original post

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

That is a prediction, you are predicting the results based on prior results and your feel of the wheel. Whether or not your prediction system works is the debate.

...I don't make predictions, weathermen make predictions. I make deductions, I make educated guesses, which are not predictions....

I don't make predictions. If you think you're into something unique and unusual here, believe me you are not. I've been arguing about this prediction thing for about 15 years now.

link to original post

Let's work with this. Maybe EvenBob will help.

EvenBob says he doesn't make predictions, but that he makes deductions and educated guesses.

Let's disect and analyse that.

"Predict:
verb
US /prɪˈdɪkt/
to say what you think will happen in the future:"

We could break down the word's etymology where 'Pre' means before and 'Dict' means to speak.

Now, I suppose that when EvenBob makes his educated guess and acts on it with a placed wager, that is a proxy for SAYING that he believes the next outcome will be the one he wagers on. Actions speak louder than words and EB speaks his deduction by wagering. He does that before the next spin. Speak, Before. Dict, Pre. PREDICT.

Regardless of how EvenBob arrives at his educated guess, how is that not a prediction: A Saying Before action?

We could look at the words deduction and Educated guess

Deduce:
verb [ T ]
US /dɪˈduːs/ UK /dɪˈdʒuːs/
to reach an answer or a decision by thinking carefully about the known facts:

OK. So EvenBob has some known facts and arrives at his Educated guess as to what will likely happen next.
But isn't that when he 'Says Before' or predicts by placing his wager?

Let's look at
"educated guess"
noun
US /ˌed.jʊ.keɪ.t̬ɪd ˈɡes/ UK /ˌed.jʊ.keɪ.tɪd ˈɡes/
Add to word list
C2
a guess that is made using judgment and a particular level of knowledge and is therefore more likely to be correct

So. By EvenBob's claim he reaches an educated guess or deduction, using his skill and knowledge about the pattern of a recent set of results. He reaches a decision that one of the following is true....

An outcome is likely enough to wager on, and he wagers OR
There's not enough confidence from the recent pattern, so it's not a good time to wager.

Is that fair EvenBob?
Sometimes you see a worthwhile wagering opportunity and place a wager, or, more frequently you don't?

And on those few times you see a worthwhile wagering opportunity, you do so and you are successful more often than you fail?

That seems to me a fair assessment of EvenBob's claim.

He has further claimed that successful wagers significantly outnumber unsuccessful wagers: A mention was made of 80% success rate.

The two problems I have and seek clarification on are......


In what way is placing a wager on the basis of an educated guess or deduction, NOT a prediction. Any answer drawing parallels with weather men or mentioning Ouija boards will be ignored.

Why does EvenBob claim a higher success rate than 50% for his educated guesses? Not how does he do it, but why does he claim that skill? Is it for Kudos? Is it because he wants us to know he's superior? Is he perhaps seeking knowledge about how best to exploit his skill. Is it cocking a snook at those who don't believe him?

C'mon EvenBob. What's your motivation?
link to original post

Of course, it is a prediction. I don't understand the wordplay on this front. Deduction, vaguely makes sense, but it is a strange word to use for better on patterns. Educated Guess is also a strange term to use, that you can argue vaguely makes sense, but not really the most intuitive way to use it.

Prediction is the optimal word for making a bet on a specific result that you are confident will (likely) occur. I do not understand the disdain for this word, nothing about "prediction" is inherently negative.

I can predict what I will do at work tomorrow, I am most likely going to be correct based on scheduled meetings, normal activities, it being the last day of the month, and what I recall from Friday that still needs to be looked it. This is a prediction of my workday (based on data I have available, and my general knowledge of how specific days usually play out), that will most likely be correct, but something crazy can happen and it can be completely wrong.

Quote: Gandler

Of course, it is a prediction.
link to original post

You only feel that way because you do not work with random outcomes. You cannot predict a random outcome because you have nothing to go on, if it's completely random you have nothing to base your prediction on. All you're doing is guessing. In my case it's educated guessing but it's still guessing and not predicting. A weatherman can predict because he has information he can turn to, things he can point to that validly back up his prediction. I have no such thing, all I have is the tried and true guess. But all guesses are not equal.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

Of course, it is a prediction.
link to original post

You only feel that way because you do not work with random outcomes. You cannot predict a random outcome because you have nothing to go on, if it's completely random you have nothing to base your prediction on. All you're doing is guessing. In my case it's educated guessing but it's still guessing and not predicting. A weatherman can predict because he has information he can turn to, things he can point to that validly back up his prediction. I have no such thing, all I have is the tried and true guess. But all guesses are not equal.
link to original post

And the Cheshire Cat said "I'm right here. Can't you see me?"

"Where", cried Alice. "I see nothing"

"Precisely!", Replied the cat with a grin.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

Of course, it is a prediction.
link to original post

You only feel that way because you do not work with random outcomes. You cannot predict a random outcome because you have nothing to go on, if it's completely random you have nothing to base your prediction on. All you're doing is guessing. In my case it's educated guessing but it's still guessing and not predicting. A weatherman can predict because he has information he can turn to, things he can point to that validly back up his prediction. I have no such thing, all I have is the tried and true guess. But all guesses are not equal.
link to original post

And there you just destroyed your description of what you do as a 'deduction'

A weatherman has factual knowledge: Temperatures, wind speed atmospheric pressure in multiple locations. From that factual knowledge and some complex maths allows the weatherman to deduce likely weather in the near future. The weatherman deduces. He then presents the prediction that his data and analysis led to.

Weatherman + Lots of Factual data + Analysis of data = Reasonably reliable prediction.

What the weatherman does fits precisely the definition of a deduction, in spite of what EB calls it.

Compare to what EvenBob claims

Experience of previous patterns + very limited Marque list of spins + Pattern recognition = .... Educated guess

What EB describes as his educated guess is a guess of en event that he himself calls Random. That sounds far more like a finger in the air prediction than any kind of deduction.

EveBob says you can't predict a truly random event.... You can. It's just that you might well predict it wrong.

I say you can't DEDUCE a truly random event. There is no useful data. There is nothing to analyse and no process with which to analyse it.

Quote: billryan

Harmony and understanding, sympathy and trust abounding.....
link to original post

No more need for superstition
All your living dreams are visions
Mystic crystal revelations


Sounds appropriate to this thread.

I didn't have rain destroys Vermont on my Bingo card, but Bingo cards are pre-printed anyway.
And within 1 minute fire-starter Drew Barrymore is on TV with a commercial for Bingo Blitz.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

Of course, it is a prediction.
link to original post

You only feel that way because you do not work with random outcomes. You cannot predict a random outcome because you have nothing to go on, if it's completely random you have nothing to base your prediction on. All you're doing is guessing. In my case it's educated guessing but it's still guessing and not predicting. A weatherman can predict because he has information he can turn to, things he can point to that validly back up his prediction. I have no such thing, all I have is the tried and true guess. But all guesses are not equal.
link to original post

How does one pick random outcomes? This inherently does not make sense. If you are using prior outcomes (data), then this is not random (assuming your system works.)

History only matters in roulette if you are bias wheel hunting, but this involves watching a wheel for countless hours, and taking down thousands (ideally tens of thousands) of results to look if there is a sector of the wheel that is slightly more favorable. But, you can't just sit down and know offhand what sector of the wheel to bet (also you would not get over 70% hit rate even in the most extreme examples) after a few bets. Also, even this is predicting, because you are betting based on favored sections of the wheel.

Quote: Gandler

How does one pick random outcomes? This inherently does not make sense. If you are using prior outcomes (data), then this is not random
link to original post

Of course it is, a random number is still random no matter when it appeared. There are casinos in Germany that everyday post the results from the roulette tables on the internet so they can be used by roulette enthusiasts who think they can beat the game. This is how confident Casino owners are that roulette cannot be beaten. You can pick a table from 10 years ago and play those numbers and they are just as random now as they were then. When do they stop being random, they do not. You cannot predict random outcomes, all you can do is make a guess.

I cannot tell you how many times I've had this argument since 2006, I couldn't count the number of times when somebody just vehemently disagrees with me. That's because they do not understand the nature of random outcomes. They are totally unpredictable. But you can make a guess at anything you want, and if you study roulette long enough your guess can become very educated.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

How does one pick random outcomes? This inherently does not make sense. If you are using prior outcomes (data), then this is not random
link to original post

Of course it is, a random number is still random no matter when it appeared. There are casinos in Germany that everyday post the results from the roulette tables on the internet so they can be used by roulette enthusiasts who think they can beat the game. This is how confident Casino owners are that roulette cannot be beaten. You can pick a table from 10 years ago and play those numbers and they are just as random now as they were then. When do they stop being random, they do not. You cannot predict random outcomes, all you can do is make a guess.

I cannot tell you how many times I've had this argument since 2006, I couldn't count the number of times when somebody just vehemently disagrees with me. That's because they do not understand the nature of random outcomes. They are totally unpredictable. But you can make a guess at anything you want, and if you study roulette long enough your guess can become very educated.
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So then how do you decide your bets in a way that guarantees an over 70% (and I know you said higher, but I am being generous and sticking to 70% -because even this number is beyond impressive-) hit rate on single even money bets?

If you do not need prior data why are you opposed to a livestream of 40 spins in a row and simply picking red or black (or any even money bet) before "betting ends"? This should be an easy challenge that is way below your standards of success when you actually bet.

Quote: Gandler

If you do not need prior data
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Of course I use prior data but just because I do does not mean that the prior data is no longer random. random Is random, you can't change it, you can't call it something else just because you're using it. If you're using it to make a guess that doesn't magically make it not random anymore. The whole problem with this conversation is you really don't know what random is and is not. True random is very much a thing, and you can't change it just by switching words around.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

If you do not need prior data
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Of course I use prior data but just because I do does not mean that the prior data is no longer random. random Is random, you can't change it, you can't call it something else just because you're using it. If you're using it to make a guess that doesn't magically make it not random anymore. The whole problem with this conversation is you really don't know what random is and is not. True random is very much a thing, and you can't change it just by switching words around.
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What is your definition of random?

Quote: EvenBob

They are totally unpredictable. But you can make a guess at anything you want, and if you study roulette long enough your guess can become very educated.
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You need to revisit the definition of educated guess.
There is no education that can help you guess a random outcome.

Maybe the reason you have argued this so long is because you are using a language that only you understand while everyone else is using the English language.

Quote: EvenBob

Of course it is, a random number is still random no matter when it appeared.

As a software engineer and one who has written numerous games for the casino industry, I can tell you that I do not believe random numbers exist at all.

Quote: Gandler

What is your definition of random?
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Events that are not connected to each other so that the last event does not in any way effect the next event. Roulette is not true random, but the outcomes are more random than those produced by an RNG. It was comical back around 2005 when you started seeing the RNG run roulette outfits show up in a casino. Those of us who played a lot of roulette we're excited because the machine made all the payouts and so you had a lot more spins per hour. But one by one we all came to realize that something was wrong, the outcomes from these machines were not the same as from a regular roulette wheel. We did not know what the difference was but all we knew was we couldn't work with it. That's because it's pseudo random and a roulette wheel produces real random.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

What is your definition of random?
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Roulette is not true random.

... a roulette wheel produces real random.
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Literally from the same paragraph.

This is just sad

My five year old makes more sense

Quote: darkoz

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

What is your definition of random?
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Roulette is not true random.

... a roulette wheel produces real random.
link to original post

Literally from the same paragraph.

This is just sad

My five year old makes more sense
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Only sad because you don't understand it. Something can be random but not true random, actual true random is only achievable from things like decaying radioactive material or the radio noise that surrounds the Earth. Obviously roulette outcomes are neither of these but nonetheless a roulette wheel produces real random events. More random than the pseudo random produced by RNG's but not true random.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

What is your definition of random?
link to original post

Roulette is not true random.

... a roulette wheel produces real random.
link to original post

Literally from the same paragraph.

This is just sad

My five year old makes more sense
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It's just that EvenBob does not understand the words 'real' and 'true'. We've all been working from the same mistaken premise all this time.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

What is your definition of random?
link to original post

Roulette is not true random.

... a roulette wheel produces real random.
link to original post

Literally from the same paragraph.

This is just sad

My five year old makes more sense
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Quote: OnceDear

It's just that EvenBob does not understand the words 'real' and 'true'. We've all been working from the same mistaken premise all this time.
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I absolutely understand them, and have been working with them for years. You're just another peanut gallery member peering in from the outside going huh? What? Say what? I don't know what he's talking about so obviously he must be wrong. LOL

If the same number hits on the 14th spin later, you could just bet a straight-up number from 13 spins before and keep trailing. You'll get lots of wins.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

What is your definition of random?
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Events that are not connected to each other so that the last event does not in any way effect the next event. Roulette is not true random, but the outcomes are more random than those produced by an RNG. It was comical back around 2005 when you started seeing the RNG run roulette outfits show up in a casino. Those of us who played a lot of roulette we're excited because the machine made all the payouts and so you had a lot more spins per hour. But one by one we all came to realize that something was wrong, the outcomes from these machines were not the same as from a regular roulette wheel. We did not know what the difference was but all we knew was we couldn't work with it. That's because it's pseudo random and a roulette wheel produces real random.
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If prior events do not effect future events, how is pattern spotting relevant? Why would watching prior results even matter?

I am not sure I even understand what your system is at this point? You spot patterns, but don't really, because they don't really show the answers, you just bet the right answer? Even if you believe roulette patterns are a thing, how would they matter if every spin is independent, and you do not factor prior results?

Quote: Gandler

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

What is your definition of random?
link to original post

Events that are not connected to each other so that the last event does not in any way effect the next event. Roulette is not true random, but the outcomes are more random than those produced by an RNG. It was comical back around 2005 when you started seeing the RNG run roulette outfits show up in a casino. Those of us who played a lot of roulette we're excited because the machine made all the payouts and so you had a lot more spins per hour. But one by one we all came to realize that something was wrong, the outcomes from these machines were not the same as from a regular roulette wheel. We did not know what the difference was but all we knew was we couldn't work with it. That's because it's pseudo random and a roulette wheel produces real random.
link to original post

If prior events do not effect future events, how is pattern spotting relevant? Why would watching prior results even matter?

I am not sure I even understand what your system is at this point? You spot patterns, but don't really, because they don't really show the answers, you just bet the right answer? Even if you believe roulette patterns are a thing, how would they matter if every spin is independent, and you do not factor prior results?
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You can better understand his system by reading Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland.

Quote: Gandler

If prior events do not effect future events, how is pattern spotting relevant? Why would watching prior results even matter?

I am not sure I even understand what your system is at this point? You spot patterns, but don't really, because they don't really show the answers, you just bet the right answer? Even if you believe roulette patterns are a thing, how would they matter if every spin is independent, and you do not factor prior results?
link to original post

Random outcomes do not form patterns, the patterns you think you see only exist in your mind. But that doesn't mean you can't exploit them. You've asked all the right questions up to this point this is where people usually get lost. If random outcomes do not form patterns, and they do not, that's one of the criteria for being random is there's no pattern formation. Our brain thinks we see a pattern, like red black red black red black red black, where no such pattern actually exists. Those are just random events strung together giving the illusion of a pattern. But from personal experience we know that this pattern that isn't really there often continues and can be exploited under the right conditions. Our brains are pattern recognition machines, it's how we live and survive by seeing patterns even if they aren't really there. Red black red black red black red black are just independent events but when viewed as a whole they look like a pattern, that can either end or continue. What these patterns do is what you learn when you study the game over a long length of time. You learn the right time to bet on them and the right time to ignore them. But because they are an illusion created by random events there are no hard fast rules that you can follow. Every time you think you've discovered a rule, you will be slapped down. You literally have to learn to think randomly to understand what's going on.

Quote: darkoz

You can better understand his system by reading Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland.
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But then you think everything is understood better if you read that book. Especially if you read it on the subway..

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: darkoz

You can better understand his system by reading Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland.
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But then you think everything is understood better if you read that book. Especially if you read it on the subway..
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It's always easy to understand when EB knows he's lost an argument.

He devolves to just responding with personal insults about something you mentioned in your past.

Thanks EB for recognizing you are wrong.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

If prior events do not effect future events, how is pattern spotting relevant? Why would watching prior results even matter?

I am not sure I even understand what your system is at this point? You spot patterns, but don't really, because they don't really show the answers, you just bet the right answer? Even if you believe roulette patterns are a thing, how would they matter if every spin is independent, and you do not factor prior results?
link to original post

Random outcomes do not form patterns, the patterns you think you see only exist in your mind. But that doesn't mean you can't exploit them. You've asked all the right questions up to this point this is where people usually get lost.
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"I'm sorry," replied Alice to the snickering EB. "I don't understand. It sounds like you are saying everything is in your imagination".

Then EB replied with a Cheshire grin, "Precisely. If you always win in your imagination, then you have a fool proof system for never losing."

"But it's not real," replied a perplexed Alice

""It is to me! Something you can never understand!"

And with that the EB crawled back on it's mushroom, lit a candle and checked the time. "It's two pm. Time for my afternoon nap!"

"But it's 5pm, time for tea," squealed Alice

""I've set the clock back so it's only two pm"

"But it's really five!"

"Not to me! Didn't we just have this conversation?"