Fire Bet
The next day, same table, and I was playing only 5x odds because I was about even and didn't want to lose very much. I had a $1 Fire Bet, and the shooter, who always plays don't pass, made two points rather quickly, and was going to pass the dice. I tossed a $5 chip down to him to keep shooting. He made several more points and I tossed him $5 every time so he would keep shooting. When he established 5 as his 5th point, I made a lay bet of $120 (remember I only had $1 on the fire bet). Wouldn't you know it, he made the 5!. Lost $120, but that's OK because now I have at least $250 coming from the fire bet. The only number left was 4. By this time the table was full and there were probably a dozen onlookers. He sevened out soon after, but I got $250 for my $1 fire bet. I won about $850 on his roll.
My question is, how much should one lay on the 5th and 6th points if you have a fire bet?
Quote: HeadlockMy question is, how much should one lay on the 5th and 6th points if you have a fire bet?
Zero.
Why bother placing the Fire Bet if you're only going to bet against it?
According to the Wizard of Odds' The Ten Commandments of Gambling:
Quote: 10 Commandments7. Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.
Quote: HeadlockI'll rephrase the question, and perhaps someone who plays craps can answer. How much should a craps player lay on the 5th point to maximize a win? If I have $5 on the fire bet, I stand to win $1,250 if the point is made, or $125 if not. I can lock in some of the difference of $1,125 as a win by laying the fifth point. I have been laying approximately half ($600) but it seems to me that's not quite right.
I was in a similar situation last week, needing a 9 or 10 as the point to "try" for the 5th point, but I didn't get to try. It's going to depend on what point is established, because the lay bet is going to pay differently on each one. That's the reason that half is not enough to lay, if you want to even out your chances. Going for the the 5th point on a 6 or 8 will pay you 6 to 7 on the lay, so a lay bet of $126 (per $1 fire) would get you $108+$24= $132 if you seven out and a net of ($249-$126) $123 if you make your 6/8. You can do similar math for the 5/9 (lay pays 5 to 7) and the 4/10 (lay pays 5 to 9).
On other hand, if you want to guarantee the most money if either the point is made or the shooter craps out, the amount you bet will depend on the point.
Quote: HeadlockI'll rephrase the question, and perhaps someone who plays craps can answer. How much should a craps player lay on the 5th point to maximize a win? If I have $5 on the fire bet, I stand to win $1,250 if the point is made, or $125 if not. I can lock in some of the difference of $1,125 as a win by laying the fifth point. I have been laying approximately half ($600) but it seems to me that's not quite right.
Yep, still $0. There's a house edge on the lay bet, so your expected win is maximized if you lay $0. Though, if you're willing to pay to "lock in" a win, the other posters are correct that the "right" amount will depend on the point and how much risk you want to still be exposed to.
Also, I got a kick out of the idea that DJ doesn't play craps:-)
Quote: HeadlockThanks cclub79. The formula for the amount to lay on the 5th point (I've simplified this) is $225 = 1.5x for the 4 and 10, $225 = 1.667x for 5 and 9, and $225 = 1.833 for 6 and 8, so it boils down to $150, $135, and $123. Not taking the vig into account. But where I get lost is how does the possibility of making the 5th point, and moving on to the sixth, affect the proper amount to lay on the fifth point?
See that's where you've got a lot of variables. Because it depends on what that sixth point might be. Obviously if you have a 6 or 8 left, you have a better chance than if it's a 4 or 10, but I'm thinking that when trying to figure out where to hedge, the EV of the chance of establishing and then making the 6th point isn't enough to alter the math too much. Even after the 5th point is won, the odds seem single digits that you'd be able to establish and then nail the 6th. If you want to work it into the hedge without going crazy with the math, I'd just make it so you win a little less if you are successful with the 5th point than if you 7 out.
Quote: cclub79See that's where you've got a lot of variables. Because it depends on what that sixth point might be. Obviously if you have a 6 or 8 left, you have a better chance than if it's a 4 or 10, but I'm thinking that when trying to figure out where to hedge, the EV of the chance of establishing and then making the 6th point isn't enough to alter the math too much. Even after the 5th point is won, the odds seem single digits that you'd be able to establish and then nail the 6th. If you want to work it into the hedge without going crazy with the math, I'd just make it so you win a little less if you are successful with the 5th point than if you 7 out.
I would suggest approaching the sixth point as a completely separate event (which it is.) Remember that the dice don't know that they have repeated, so your the odds of establishing and making a sixth point are the same, as if you were coming out the first time. Depending on what that point is, and the potential payoff of the fire bet will determine what amount, if any, to hedge. Since you will be getting into quite large amounts in this scenario, hedging may be appropriate to protect what the Wizard terms, a "life changing" win.
Quote: AyecarumbaI would suggest approaching the sixth point as a completely separate event (which it is.) Remember that the dice don't know that they have repeated, so your the odds of establishing and making a sixth point are the same, as if you were coming out the first time. Depending on what that point is, and the potential payoff of the fire bet will determine what amount, if any, to hedge. Since you will be getting into quite large amounts in this scenario, hedging may be appropriate to protect what the Wizard terms, a "life changing" win.
Not exactly the same chances. For example, on the first point, you'll ALWAYS establish a new point. The 2nd, you have a decent chance of establishing a different point. But if you hit those two, and they were 6 and 8, then you only have a 14/24 chance of your next point NOT being a 6 or 8. By the time you get to the 6th, you only have about a 4/24 chance (taking all points into account) of establishing that 6th point. I understand that converting it is just as likely as any other time, but establishing that one remaining point is still going to be a tall order.
I also thing that, while normally I don't condone hedging, when you are looking at such a large return from a small bet, it's sometimes worth going for. Knowing that your 5 bucks could be either 1125 or nothing, OR 500, it seems to be a position to take the 500. Maybe it shouldn't just be life changing scores, but long odds scores, 100 to 1 or more, or something.
Quote: AyecarumbaWell said cclub79. I think the definition of "life changing" varies widely from budget to budget (see the $20k bet to not gamble for two years). $500 is a big weekend to some.
Exactly. If you can lock in 500 and come home with a great weekend story and be happy, shouldn't you? How much happiness is being risked/rewarded by winning a little more than twice as much but risking it all?
Thanks. You can imagine my reaction when I returned to my computer and saw the comment that seems to indicate I don't play craps.Quote: rdw4potusAlso, I got a kick out of the idea that DJ doesn't play craps:-)
Anyway, I'll expand upon my earlier post.
If you do any research, you'll see that I've said of the Fire Bet:
- - It's a dumb bet, with a high house edge. It is also one of the only high house edge bets that I play.
- I applaud the guy that figured out a way to put a jackpot on a craps table.
- If you're at a table where a Fire Bet hits, but you don't have a Fire Bet up, if you have your bets spread out at all, you're still making good bucks.
- Even so, you'll still feel like a jerk for not putting up a lousy buck.
That said, Headlock says he was ahead, and doing well, when he got four of the Fire Bet points.
Why suddenly shift gears, simply because you have the princely sum of $5 bet riding on the Fire Bet?
If you got a feeling that the shooter had run out of steam and will 7-out soon, that's one thing. But to simply change your betting pattern because that long-shot bet is on the verge of paying off? That's hedging, and should be avoided.
Quote: DJTeddyBear
If you got a feeling that the shooter had run out of steam and will 7-out soon, that's one thing. But to simply change your betting pattern because that long-shot bet is on the verge of paying off? That's hedging, and should be avoided.
I think that playing a "feeling" is sillier than locking in a solid win. I agree that hedging small sums is not worth it, but if it's several hundred dollars to add to your bankroll and extend your playing time or pay for your trip, vs. a chance that you'll lose it all, I don't think locking in the win should be "avoided" as if it's the "wrong play". For example, I don't ever take even money in BJ, but if I put up an $800 bet, I might consider it. But don't ask me to cover your gas money when the dealer flips over the Queen, and you pushed your big bet.
Quote: DJTeddyBear
Why suddenly shift gears, simply because you have the princely sum of $5 bet riding on the Fire Bet?
Because the EV of the bet is no longer $5, it's between 370 and 500+ dollars.
Quote: DJTeddyBearThanks. You can imagine my reaction when I returned to my computer and saw the comment that seems to indicate I don't play craps.
If you do any research, you'll see that I've said of the Fire Bet:
I cannot imagine your reaction. Please tell me.
I don't have time to research your 1,300 posts. I did find one thread you started where you bought in for $100 and played $22 inside.
Player 2, lets call him Craps Player, buys in for $1,000 and plays $5 pass line and 2 come bets with 10x odds. When the shooter establishes 4 as his 5th point, he has $1,000 in the rack, $200 odds on the come bets, and a $5 Fire Bet. Paying no heed to the Wizard's commandment "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets", he takes down his odds and lays the 4 for $750. He knows that with the lay bet, either the 7 or the 4 will net him $500, so he ends up with $1,000 in the rack, plus the $200 odds he took down, plus $500.
So am I correct in saying that on average, DJ will end up once with $2,646 and twice with $1,025, or $4,696 total? And Craps Player will end up with $1,700 three times, or $5,100 total?
I laid awake for hours last night thinking this through and it just doesn't seem logical, but I can't find the error.
Quote: HeadlockPlease point out my error in this scenario. Player 1, lets call him DJTeddyBear, buys in for $100 and plays $22 inside. As unlikely as it sounds, when the shooter establishes a 4 as his 5th point, DJ has $1,000 in the rack, and place bets of $50, $48, $48, and $50. He also has $5 on the Fire Bet, $1 that he bet plus $4 that someone else bet for him. Playing the hot roll, he takes odds on the 4 of $100 and starts dreaming of what he'll do with the $1,250 he's about to win. Shooter picks them up and rolls those bones...4! High fives and fist bumps all around! DJ now has his $1,000 in the rack, $200 odds payoff on the 4, $1,250 from the Fire Bet and still has $196 on the place bets. Total $2,646. Of course this happens on average 1 out of three times, the other two times shooter sevens out and DJ is left with $900 in the rack plus $125 for the Fire Bet.
Player 2, lets call him Craps Player, buys in for $1,000 and plays $5 pass line and 2 come bets with 10x odds. When the shooter establishes 4 as his 5th point, he has $1,000 in the rack, $200 odds on the come bets, and a $5 Fire Bet. Paying no heed to the Wizard's commandment "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets", he takes down his odds and lays the 4 for $750. He knows that with the lay bet, either the 7 or the 4 will net him $500, so he ends up with $1,000 in the rack, plus the $200 odds he took down, plus $500.
So am I correct in saying that on average, DJ will end up once with $2,646 and twice with $1,025, or $4,696 total? And Craps Player will end up with $1,700 three times, or $5,100 total?
I laid awake for hours last night thinking this through and it just doesn't seem logical, but I can't find the error.
I enjoy your posts.
I think the problem is you said you put out $750 and netted $500. If you need to lay the 4, you'd be paid 5 to 9. You'd have to put up $900 to be paid $500.
Quote: HeadlockOn the 4 and 10, I will lay $750 to get $375. If the point hits, I lose $750 but gain $1,250 on the Fire Bet. If the shooter sevens out, I win $375, plus $125 Fire Bet, and get my lay bet of $750 back. Either way I net $500.
My bad. Since I don't lay, I just flipped the place odds, which is obviously wrong since it would have a player advantage. I think the issue is the 5% Comm. If you want $375 for 750, you'll have to pay 5% if they even offer it like that. Most likely you'd have to accept 5 to 11. So if you wanted 375, you'd have to risk $825.
Edit: I noticed these "place bets to lose" are not available everywhere, but I think the vig on the Lay bet is what might be causing the problem. I apologize for just posting and being wrong twice now.
I find it interesting that one one of the players in this scenario is me, but the other player has a generic name. Whatever.Quote: Headlock...So am I correct in saying that on average, DJ will end up once with $2,646 and twice with $1,025, or $4,696 total? And Craps Player will end up with $1,700 three times, or $5,100 total?
Although I play a lot of craps, I don't play the dark side, so I just have to assume that your math is accurate. That said, I guess I can see your point.
And it seems like cclub79 is questioning your math, so I won't surrender quite so quick.
But, even if you're right, I wouldn't play it your way. It just doesn't feel right.
And besides, once you've hedged that bet, if the shooter hits the fifth Fire Bet point, then what?
Quote: DJTeddyBearI find it interesting that one one of the players in this scenario is me, but the other player has a generic name. Whatever.
Although I play a lot of craps, I don't play the dark side, so I just have to assume that your math is accurate. That said, I guess I can see your point.
And it seems like cclub79 is questioning your math, so I won't surrender quite so quick.
But, even if you're right, I wouldn't play it your way. It just doesn't feel right.
And besides, once you've hedged that bet, if the shooter hits the fifth Fire Bet point, then what?
Can you do the math and either agree or disagree with my calculations? And you have hit squarely on my question; does hitting the fifth point with the possibility of the 1,000 to one payoff affect the advisability of laying the fifth point, or the amount?
Quote: HeadlockPlease point out my error in this scenario.
The problem is you are ignoring DJ's place bets. He was $196 in bets that never get resolved favourably! You are only counting two outcomes, one where the shooter rolls a 4 (no place bet action) and one where the shooter rolls a 7 (place bets lose). One of those two will eventually happen, but before those happen, there's a very good chance some place bets win and DJ gets more money than Player 2.
The proper way to think about it is to focus only on the odds, fire bet and lay. Lays cost 5% on winnings according to WOO, so I think you need to lay about 794 to win 375
With a $100 odds bet and $5 fire, a player will win $200 + 1250 one times out of 3, and win 125 - 100 two times out of 3.
Expectation: $500
With a $794 lay and $5 fire, a player will win $1250 - 794 one times out of 3, and win 125 + 375 two times out of 3.
Expectation: $485.33
Don't hedge.
Quote: dwheatleyThe problem is you are ignoring DJ's place bets. He was $196 in bets that never get resolved favourably! You are only counting two outcomes, one where the shooter rolls a 4 (no place bet action) and one where the shooter rolls a 7 (place bets lose). One of those two will eventually happen, but before those happen, there's a very good chance some place bets win and DJ gets more money than Player 2.
You are right, I forgot this. The EV of the place bets would be 4/3 times $70 plus 10/6 times $56, or about $186. Multiply that by 3, add to the $4,696 calculated earlier for a total of $5,254. Compare this to $5,100 for laying the point (and I haven't subtracted the vig yet). So playing it out, not laying the fifth point, appears to be the better way to go.
Although I am obviously happy that I've been vindicated, please do not think that this post is to claim "I told you so."Quote: HeadlockSo playing it out, not laying the fifth point, appears to be the better way to go.
I'm more happy that those of you that understand ALL of the math, have compared the math, and REALLY got down to an answer - one that answers the original question:
Quote: HeadlockMy question is, how much should one lay on the 5th and 6th points if you have a fire bet?
By the way Headlock, because you implied that you hadn't noticed any posts about craps by me, you might be interested in some THREADS about craps that I started:
How to win at a cold craps and be ready when it turns hot
Free Craps lessons can be worse than worthless
Craps hardways system
Quote: Tim from Grimsby, ONMy question is on craps. I know that the Fire Bet is a lousy bet, but I bet it anyway, when I am rolling. Well, I got lucky and hit my four points, and was on the fifth point. I had won $75, and was on my way to winning $750, if I hit the 5th point. My other bets were $5 on the pass and $20 to win $30 on the 5. Having established the 5th point, which was a 5, I realized that I had a 2/5 chance of hitting it, for a net win of $785. I also realized that I had a 3/5 chance of not hitting it, for a net win of $25. If I wanted to hedge my bets, what is the largest win I could lock in? Also, what are your thoughts on this strategy?
Quote: The WizardUnless life changing amounts of money are involved, I disapprove of hedging, per my seventh commandment of gambling.
I'm going to ignore the fact that if you hit the 5 you could hedge more to lock in an even larger win, and just look at this as if it ended after a 5 or 7. At this point your net will will be $785 or $50. You should start by taking down the odds bet. That will change the scenario to winning $755 or $70. Then you should lay the odds on the 5. Let b represent your lay bet against the 5. If you lose the bet, you'll have $755-$b. If you win the bet, you'll have $70 + (19/31)×$b. So, equate the two sides, and solve for b:That will lock in a win of $330.30. So, if rounding were not an issue, then lay $424.7 against the 5. However, rounding always is an issue, so I would lay $403 against the 5 ($390, plus $13 commission on possible win of $260).755-b = 70+(19/31)×b
685 = (50/31)×b
b = 424.7
Quote: DatedNovember 17, 2008
Wizard, can you expand on your answer?
The difference in EV using this particular hedge looks like 3.8% on the 4 and 10. I imagine it's slightly different on the other numbers. Thanks to dwheatley for showing the EV of not hedging to be $500, the EV of hedging (paying the vig every time) is $481.
We all know the player might win the five point Fire Bet six times in a row, but it's slightly more likely to lose six times in a row. Because it happens so infrequently, I believe I will continue to play the hedge so that I always win something.
I play craps just about every weekend, and I have never collected on a six point Fire Bet. Only three times have I had the opportunity to hedge on the fifth point. The first time I did not hedge, put full odds behind the 5th point, and watched a seven out. I was greedy, and I felt terrible. The second and third times I hedged; I won one and lost the other. Felt great to collect the lay bet, but I didn't feel bad when I lost the other, because now I had the 5 point Fire Bet payoff plus the chance to go for six.
on a 6 or 8, if you bet NO 6 or NO 8 laying $2000 to win $1750, either you will make the point and win $5000 less the $2000 NO bet for a net $3000 win, or win $1750 on your NO bet plus $1250 for making 5pts on the firebet for a net win of $3000.
on a 5 or 9, if you bet NO 5 or NO 9 laying $2263 to win $1460, either you will make the point and win $5000 less the $2263 NO bet for a net $2737 win, or win $1460 on your NO bet plus $1250 for making 5pts on the firebet for a neat win of $2710.
on a 4 or T, if you bet NO 4 or NO T laying $2501 to win $1220, either you will make the point and win $5000 less the $2501 NO bet for a net $2499 win, or win $1220 on your NO bet plus $1250 for making 5pts on the firebet for a net win of $2470.
Any thoughts on how one should play this - well, beyond not playing it?
Quote: rudeboyoiokay if you already made 5pts and are on the 6th pt, i figured out the "optimal" hedge amount based on a $5 firebet which pays 250:1 for making 5pts and 1000:1 for making all 6pts. optimal meaning you win as near to the same amount whether you win or lose.
on a 6 or 8, if you bet NO 6 or NO 8 laying $2000 to win $1750, either you will make the point and win $5000 less the $2000 NO bet for a net $3000 win, or win $1750 on your NO bet plus $1250 for making 5pts on the firebet for a net win of $3000.
on a 5 or 9, if you bet NO 5 or NO 9 laying $2263 to win $1460, either you will make the point and win $5000 less the $2263 NO bet for a net $2737 win, or win $1460 on your NO bet plus $1250 for making 5pts on the firebet for a neat win of $2710.
on a 4 or T, if you bet NO 4 or NO T laying $2501 to win $1220, either you will make the point and win $5000 less the $2501 NO bet for a net $2499 win, or win $1220 on your NO bet plus $1250 for making 5pts on the firebet for a net win of $2470.
While this advice describes an independent sixth point, don't forget that the player has already "lost" his hedge on the fifth point, thus reducing his total win. I haven't run any numbers, but it seems logical that the optimal hedge (an oxymoron?) strategy would compensate for this loss.
I understand that the probability of establishing and hitting the sixth point depends on what that 6th number is. The probablity of establishing a 4 or 10 would be 3 out of 24, and then the probability of making the 4 or 10 1 out of 3. I think I could figure that part out, but then combining that with the calculation of the amount to lay if you choose to hedge, is beyond my feeble capabilities.
I still believe the hedge is a reasonable bet because of the infrequency of getting to the 5th point. On the 4 and 10 for example, you can expect to win only 1 in 3 times, while with the hedge you have some win every time. Hedging the 6 and 8 is not as attractive since you can expect to win that one 5 out of 6.
a unit for NO 6 or NO 8 is $25.
a unit for NO 5 or NO 9 is $31.
a unit for NO 4 or NO T is $41.
if the 5th point is a 6 or 8, hedge 25 units.
if the 5th point is a 5 or 9, hedge 22 units.
if the 5th point is a 4 or T, hedge 18 units.
if you make the 5th point on a 6 or 8,
if you establish the 6th point regardless of what you lost on the 5th point, you hedge the same number of units. however the total amount you win or lose will differ slightly.
if the 6th point is a 6 or 8, hedge 83 units.
if the 6th point is a 5 or 9, hedge 74 units.
if the 6th point is a 4 or 10, hedge 61 units.
following this strategy:
if you win or lose on the 5th point, your results are about the same.
if you win or lose on the 6th point, your results are about the same.
5th point:
625
625
568
565
512
485
6th point with:
6 or 8 for 5th point:
2300
2285
2081
2105
1874
1845
5 or 9 for 5th point:
2243
2228
2024
2048
1817
1788
4 or T for 5th point:
2187
2172
1968
1992
1761
1732
Quote: HeadlockThanks rudeboyoi. I think you have helped me phrase my question more clearly. When the 5th point has been established, what is the optimum amount to lay on that number if you want to hedge? The formula is relatively simple if you assume only two possibilities, either making the 5th point or not. But there is one other possibility, and that is establishing and making the sixth point. Should the formula be modified to take this possibility into account? I think yes, but it's too complicated for me.
It can be done, but if someone wants to do it, you'll have to do it for all three different possible 5th point payoffs AND the fact that the 6th point could be any of the same three point payoffs. So you'd have to solve for 5th point being a 4/10 and sixth being either a 4/10, 5/9, or 6/8, and solve for 5/9 then 4/10, 5/9, 6/8, and solve for 6/8 then 4/10, 5/9, 6/8. So there should be 3 different answers for how much to lay on each of the three different payoffs, or nine total answers. I can't run the numbers but maybe this could help someone who is interested in doing so. Also remember there's no guarantee that the 6th point will appear following the 5th point conversion, but there's also no guarantee that it won't appear after x number of old points are converted.
20 25 500 625
31 22 682 568
20 22 440 565
41 18 738 512
20 18 360 485
25 83 2075 2300
20 83 1660 2285
31 74 2294 2081
20 74 1480 2105
41 61 2501 1874
20 61 1220 1845
25 83 2075 2243
20 83 1660 2228
31 74 2294 2024
20 74 1480 2048
41 61 2501 1817
20 61 1220 1788
25 83 2075 2187
20 83 1660 2172
31 74 2294 1968
20 74 1480 1992
41 61 2501 1761
20 61 1220 1732
the bolded parts are the amount you will have lost if you make the 5th point and hedged your bet.
But I don't think you considered the additional win there would be be if the fifth point hits and the sixth point hits. cclub79 correctly pointed out that there would be nine different multipliers for the lay on the fith point, depending on what the sixth number would be.
a unit is defined as the following:
a unit for NO 6 or NO 8 is $25.
a unit for NO 5 or NO 9 is $31.
a unit for NO 4 or NO T is $41.
the bolded parts are the amount youd win after any of these events occur.
L NO 6or8 W 5th pt 625hedging 25units
W NO 6or8 L 5th pt 625 hedging 25units
L NO 5or9 W 5th pt 568 hedging 22units
W NO 5or9 L 5th pt 565 hedging 22units
L NO 4orT W 5th pt 512 hedging 18units
W NO 4orT L 5th pt 485 hedging 18units
1 W 6or8 as 5th pt then L NO 6or8 W 6th pt 2300hedging 83units
W 6or8 as 5th pt then W NO 6or8 L 6th pt 2285hedging 83units
2 W 6or8 as 5th pt then L NO 5or9 W 6th pt 2081hedging 74units
W 6or8 as 5th pt then W NO 5or9 L 6th pt 2105hedging 74units
3 W 6or8 as 5th pt then L NO 4orT W 6th pt 1874hedging 61units
W 6or8 as 5th pt then W NO 4orT L 6th pt 1845hedging 61units
4 W 5or9 as 5th pt then L NO 6or8 W 6th pt 2243hedging 83units
W 5or9 as 5th pt then W NO 6or8 L 6th pt 2228hedging 83units
5 W 5or9 as 5th pt then L NO 5or9 W 6th pt 2024hedging 74units
W 5or9 as 5th pt then W NO 5or9 L 6th pt 2048hedging 74units
6 W 5or9 as 5th pt then L NO 4orT W 6th pt 1817hedging 61units
W 5or9 as 5th pt then W NO 4orT L 6th pt 1788hedging 61units
7 W 4orT as 5th pt then L NO 6or8 W 6th pt 2187hedging 83units
W 4orT as 5th pt then W NO 6or8 L 6th pt 2172hedging 83units
8 W 4orT as 5th pt then L NO 5or9 W 6th pt 1968hedging 74units
W 4orT as 5th pt then W NO 5or9 L 6th pt 1992hedging 74units
9 W 4orT as 5th pt then L NO 4orT W 6th pt 1761hedging 61units
W 4orT as 5th pt then W NO 4orT L 6th pt 1732hedging 61units
Quote: rudeboyoithe amounts are in dollars and are based on a $5 firebet.
a unit is defined as the following:
a unit for NO 6 or NO 8 is $25.
a unit for NO 5 or NO 9 is $31.
a unit for NO 4 or NO T is $41.
the bolded parts are the amount youd win after any of these events occur.
L NO 6or8 W 5th pt 625hedging 25units
W NO 6or8 L 5th pt 625 hedging 25units
L NO 5or9 W 5th pt 568 hedging 22units
W NO 5or9 L 5th pt 565 hedging 22units
L NO 4orT W 5th pt 512 hedging 18units
W NO 4orT L 5th pt 485 hedging 18units
1 W 6or8 as 5th pt then L NO 6or8 W 6th pt 2300hedging 83units
W 6or8 as 5th pt then W NO 6or8 L 6th pt 2285hedging 83units
2 W 6or8 as 5th pt then L NO 5or9 W 6th pt 2081hedging 74units
W 6or8 as 5th pt then W NO 5or9 L 6th pt 2105hedging 74units
3 W 6or8 as 5th pt then L NO 4orT W 6th pt 1874hedging 61units
W 6or8 as 5th pt then W NO 4orT L 6th pt 1845hedging 61units
4 W 5or9 as 5th pt then L NO 6or8 W 6th pt 2243hedging 83units
W 5or9 as 5th pt then W NO 6or8 L 6th pt 2228hedging 83units
5 W 5or9 as 5th pt then L NO 5or9 W 6th pt 2024hedging 74units
W 5or9 as 5th pt then W NO 5or9 L 6th pt 2048hedging 74units
6 W 5or9 as 5th pt then L NO 4orT W 6th pt 1817hedging 61units
W 5or9 as 5th pt then W NO 4orT L 6th pt 1788hedging 61units
7 W 4orT as 5th pt then L NO 6or8 W 6th pt 2187hedging 83units
W 4orT as 5th pt then W NO 6or8 L 6th pt 2172hedging 83units
8 W 4orT as 5th pt then L NO 5or9 W 6th pt 1968hedging 74units
W 4orT as 5th pt then W NO 5or9 L 6th pt 1992hedging 74units
9 W 4orT as 5th pt then L NO 4orT W 6th pt 1761hedging 61units
W 4orT as 5th pt then W NO 4orT L 6th pt 1732hedging 61units
So if the established 5th point is 4 or 10, and the sixth point would be 4 or 10, I should lay 61 units of $41 on the fifth point? That can't be right.
5th pt 6 or 8 and 6th pt 5 or 9, hedge slightly more on the 5th point.
5th pt 6 or 8 and 6th pt 4 or T, hedge the amounts i have listed.
5th pt 5 or 9 and 6th pt 6 or 8, hedge slightly more on the 5th point.
5th pt 5 or 9 and 6th pt 5 or 9, hedge the amounts i have listed.
5th pt 5 or 9 and 6th pt 4 or T, hedge slightly less on the 5th point.
5th pt 4 or T and 6th pt 6 or 8, hedge the amounts i have listed.
5th pt 4 or T and 6th pt 5 or 9, hedge slightly less on the 5th point.
5th pt 4 or T and 6th pt 4 or T, hedge way less on the 5th point.
Quote: cclub79It can be done, but if someone wants to do it, you'll have to do it for all three different possible 5th point payoffs AND the fact that the 6th point could be any of the same three point payoffs. So you'd have to solve for 5th point being a 4/10 and sixth being either a 4/10, 5/9, or 6/8, and solve for 5/9 then 4/10, 5/9, 6/8, and solve for 6/8 then 4/10, 5/9, 6/8. So there should be 3 different answers for how much to lay on each of the three different payoffs, or nine total answers. I can't run the numbers but maybe this could help someone who is interested in doing so. Also remember there's no guarantee that the 6th point will appear following the 5th point conversion, but there's also no guarantee that it won't appear after x number of old points are converted.
I'm reviving this old thread because I'm hoping the math experts will help with the calculations. (I think I can do it, but I'm not real confident). Anyways........I'm hoping to make a wallet-sized laminated card telling me how many units per $ Fire Bet to lay on the 5th and 6th points.
