What would you do with a 5% edge?
August 11th, 2014 at 5:06:29 AM
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Scenario:
You've discovered a NEW edge that casinos (and virtually every gambler on earth) is unaware of.
Do you:
A) Do your best to exploit it yourself.
B) Build a team so you can hit it harder on multiple fronts.
Risk of building the team is that it exposes the edge.
You've discovered a NEW edge that casinos (and virtually every gambler on earth) is unaware of.
Do you:
A) Do your best to exploit it yourself.
B) Build a team so you can hit it harder on multiple fronts.
Risk of building the team is that it exposes the edge.
August 11th, 2014 at 5:32:14 AM
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Depends on your resources/bankroll. Can you afford to hammer the 5% hard yourself. Or do you need the help of a team either logistically or financially.
Assuming I had the coin...I'd be inclined to hammer it myself or with one other trusted confidant.
Assuming I had the coin...I'd be inclined to hammer it myself or with one other trusted confidant.
August 11th, 2014 at 5:46:14 AM
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You post about it on gambling forums with full details. then you find out you cant beat Baccarat because the math guys expose it as bunk. Then you wait a few months and post something new and mysterious hoping someone contacts you via PM. You try to rope them in and get them to put up cash for you.Quote: CrakonScenario:
You've discovered a NEW edge that casinos (and virtually every gambler on earth) is unaware of.
Do you:
A) Do your best to exploit it yourself.
B) Build a team so you can hit it harder on multiple fronts.
Risk of building the team is that it exposes the edge.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 11th, 2014 at 6:00:01 AM
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Quote: CrakonScenario:
You've discovered a NEW edge that casinos (and virtually every gambler on earth) is unaware of.
Do you:
A) Do your best to exploit it yourself.
B) Build a team so you can hit it harder on multiple fronts.
Risk of building the team is that it exposes the edge.
A of course.
I quit my job and live off the 5% advantage.
Build a team, no way, word will get out. Best to keep quiet.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
August 11th, 2014 at 6:28:32 AM
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For laughs, lets pretend it's not a bunk baccarat "system" I disagree with "of course" There are lots of factors.Quote: terapinedA of course.
I quit my job and live off the 5% advantage.
Build a team, no way, word will get out. Best to keep quiet.
Do you currently deal with partners/ friends if so, can they keep it to themselves?
How hard is it? Somethings work better in a team environment.
How is the EV distributed. will the edge show up quickly?
what are the chances casinos will discover it?
what are the chances AP's will find it.
How Plentiful is the opportunity.
Will you burn your face out?
Under the best conditions you would tell people you trust and ask for 25 to 50% of what they make and also play it on your own.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 11th, 2014 at 7:02:47 AM
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Quote: vendman1Depends on your resources/bankroll. Can you afford to hammer the 5% hard yourself. Or do you need the help of a team either logistically or financially.
Assuming I had the coin...I'd be inclined to hammer it myself or with one other trusted confidant.
Precisely. If you go the "build a team" route, you risk one of the team members already having twenty-seven members on his blackjack team and calling for emergency meeting just after you explain things to him.
Its better if you exploit this five percent edge yourself but will you be noticed, do you get drunk, do you brag to hookers?
Recall perhaps the misprinted Sic Bo layout in a Biloxi casino. People were sitting there doing well, a few phoned friends in Vegas, a few known gamblers arrived from Vegas, the Casino Manager got suspicious, by the time the bulk of friends arrived from Vegas the CM could greet them all but when they got to the Sic Bo table, they were greeted by a yellow post it note showing the correct odds on the SicBo layout.
Remember, Surveillance and all Suits watch for anything that is unusual. Standing too close to a slot machine and winning? Rubber necking by looking around before you make your move? Sitting too close to your fellow blackjack players? Not having some broads in your party?
Remember the con? Guy sits near The Mark at a race track and calmly pulls out a winning ticket at end of each race. Eventually gets noticed, Mark inquires what is up and hears "I have this system but as long as I only do two dollar tickets, I know the Mafia will leave me alone". The Mark pals around with Con Man a few days, suddenly has Aunt with major medical bills and is willing to bet the Mark's fifty grand. Con Man disappears with fifty grand, Mark realizes finally that the winning ticket always came from a different pocket and realizes Con Man simply invested a few bucks of guaranteed losing races to fool the Mark.
August 11th, 2014 at 7:11:27 AM
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But what about the young sweet cocktail waitress who thinks you are cute, brings her tits around a few extra times to chat with you, mentions to her co workers about a possible Mr. Right.Quote: terapinedA of course. I quit my job and live off the 5% advantage. Build a team, no way, word will get out. Best to keep quiet.
She did not mean to call attention to you, but the Sweet Young Thing just blew your cover after you won only two months wages.
August 11th, 2014 at 7:40:09 AM
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Basic AP OPSEC = STFU.
If someone is not an integral part of your operation, do not read them into it.
Do not brag to your friends.
Do not brag to other AP's.
Avoid other AP's like the plague when you're at work. One time I was eating my lunch on top of a random machine in a casino. Unknown to me, an AP was standing behind me. After several minutes, she moved into my field of vision and asked me, "Where's the earn?"
Always STFU.
When in doubt, STFU.
That's why it's a lonely life for some AP's and intelligence officers.
If it isn't clear, my answer is A).
If someone is not an integral part of your operation, do not read them into it.
Do not brag to your friends.
Do not brag to other AP's.
Avoid other AP's like the plague when you're at work. One time I was eating my lunch on top of a random machine in a casino. Unknown to me, an AP was standing behind me. After several minutes, she moved into my field of vision and asked me, "Where's the earn?"
Always STFU.
When in doubt, STFU.
That's why it's a lonely life for some AP's and intelligence officers.
If it isn't clear, my answer is A).
August 11th, 2014 at 7:42:37 AM
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I think you call it "Super Fun Triple Card Poker" and choke the casino floor full of it.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
August 11th, 2014 at 7:43:43 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 11th, 2014 at 10:39:34 AM
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5% is crazy high. If it's at a game where I can bet whatever I want, I'd just hammer away at it myself. I'd make plenty of money. If it was at every casino I would easily make millions before they all figured out what was going on.
The main reason to form a team is so that you can make more money with the same bankroll. With such a large edge that's really not necessary.
The main reason to form a team is so that you can make more money with the same bankroll. With such a large edge that's really not necessary.
August 11th, 2014 at 10:45:59 AM
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I would hire a good lawyer so I could terminate my alimony payments.
aahigh.com
August 11th, 2014 at 10:46:13 AM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoice5% is crazy high. If it's at a game where I can bet whatever I want, I'd just hammer away at it myself. I'd make plenty of money. If it was at every casino I would easily make millions before they all figured out what was going on.
The main reason to form a team is so that you can make more money with the same bankroll. With such a large edge that's really not necessary.
5% is crazy high. Its a fantasy. Just like the fantasy I have of hitting the lotto and quitting my job.
Still, its nice to daydream.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
August 11th, 2014 at 11:47:37 AM
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If I did go with option B... What do you feel is a fair cut to ask for if new team members are putting up their cash? I was leaning towards 20%.
August 11th, 2014 at 1:24:19 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 11th, 2014 at 2:22:03 PM
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I would say 10, but the more practical issue is how often you would chop, if after every session you are freerolling them when you would often be getting paid when the team could have actually lost 3 or. 4 of last 5 sessions. A factor is also that the type of potential team members you would want have probably got other plays going for them with a 2% or greater edge. At a point when you ask for too much, and I think 20% is, you lose interest from the type of players you would want in the first place and create animosity by others thinking you're a selfish pig, possibly derailing the whole play. If it's beneficial to have a small team, then do it and that will be reward enough, if you don't need it than do it yourself. Anything more and you risk blowing up a great opportunity imo.Quote: CrakonIf I did go with option B... What do you feel is a fair cut to ask for if new team members are putting up their cash? I was leaning towards 20%.
August 11th, 2014 at 2:30:01 PM
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What's the variance for the 5% EV?
Will make a huge difference. If it's a one in a million shot that over pays, that's different from a 1 in 10 shot.
Will make a huge difference. If it's a one in a million shot that over pays, that's different from a 1 in 10 shot.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 11th, 2014 at 2:33:10 PM
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If I had a true, exploitable +5%EV on a bet...
Bankroll/20 per bet
Never ever tell anyone
Bankroll/20 per bet
Never ever tell anyone
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
August 11th, 2014 at 2:33:53 PM
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Depending on the limits and the variance. If this is a play were you came up with no lone knew about and its NEW no one would complain @ 5% edge. unless you already had a previous understanding as partners or friends.Quote: mcallister3200I would say 10, but the more practical issue is how often you would chop, if after every session you are freerolling them when you would often be getting paid when the team could have actually lost 3 or. 4 of last 5 sessions. A factor is also that the type of potential team members you would want have probably got other plays going for them with a 2% or greater edge. At a point when you ask for too much, and I think 20% is, you lose interest from the type of players you would want in the first place and create animosity by others thinking you're a selfish pig, possibly derailing the whole play. If it's beneficial to have a small team, then do it and that will be reward enough, if you don't need it than do it yourself. Anything more and you risk blowing up a great opportunity imo.
I think this is just some baccarat system ruse.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 11th, 2014 at 2:33:57 PM
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Quote: 98ClubsIf I had a true, exploitable +5%EV on a bet...
Bankroll/20 per bet
Never ever tell anyone
You could end up very bust.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 11th, 2014 at 3:13:53 PM
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Quote: 98ClubsIf I had a true, exploitable +5%EV on a bet...
Bankroll/20 per bet
Dear god, no. This is a common misunderstanding of the Kelly Criterion.
Suppose I give you a 1-in-100 shot that pays 104:1? Your edge is 5%. You should not bet 5% of your bankroll.
August 12th, 2014 at 12:44:43 PM
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I agree -- the variance could easily kill the bankroll.
August 16th, 2014 at 8:34:36 AM
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Quote: CrakonScenario:
You've discovered a NEW edge that casinos (and virtually every gambler on earth) is unaware of.
Do you:
A) Do your best to exploit it yourself.
B) Build a team so you can hit it harder on multiple fronts.
Risk of building the team is that it exposes the edge.
I suggest option C:
Post here the details, i.e., everything including the name/location of the casino and the exact table/machine and rules
and why do you think you have 5% edge.
And let Wiz do some calculation/simulation to verify if the edge is real.
After that we will see what happens.
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
August 16th, 2014 at 9:57:40 AM
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You better think things over very carefully before you cut anyone else in on the play. Just because you have a 5% advantage now doesn't mean it will be there tomorrow, or next week, or next month. To many pigs at the trough has gotten lot of plays squashed. Don't assume your sucking the money out of this play will go unnoticed. It might be a situation where you just need to torch it yourself. The one constant in gambling is everything changes. Don't count on having this play long term.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 16th, 2014 at 10:17:32 AM
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Baccarat plays last forever.Quote: mickeycrimmYou better think things over very carefully before you cut anyone else in on the play. Just because you have a 5% advantage now doesn't mean it will be there tomorrow, or next week, or next month. To many pigs at the trough has gotten lot of plays squashed. Don't assume your sucking the money out of this play will go unnoticed. It might be a situation where you just need to torch it yourself. The one constant in gambling is everything changes. Don't count on having this play long term.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 16th, 2014 at 10:27:23 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfBaccarat plays last forever.
LOL! If that's the case then I suggest he write a book about it and target a mass audience.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 16th, 2014 at 12:31:45 PM
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Quote: mickeycrimmTo many pigs at the trough has gotten lot of plays squashed. .
Loose lips sink ships. And player advantages. Once
you tell one person, you've effectively told hundreds.
I read an article once by a former FBI agent. He said
if you commit crimes alone and with planning, you
might not ever get caught. 95% of crimes are solved
by informants and partners and spouses of the criminal
ratting them out.
If you act alone and never tell a single person, you're
miles ahead.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 17th, 2014 at 6:36:47 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDear god, no. This is a common misunderstanding of the Kelly Criterion.
Suppose I give you a 1-in-100 shot that pays 104:1? Your edge is 5%. You should not bet 5% of your bankroll.
Alright, I'll bite; where is the misunderstanding? Is it because the Kelly Criterion only applies to even money bets?
August 18th, 2014 at 7:36:20 AM
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Quote: CRMousseauAlright, I'll bite; where is the misunderstanding? Is it because the Kelly Criterion only applies to even money bets?
No Kelly applies to all Bets.
The simple formula is EV/Variance X Bankroll
This is an aproximation formula that works well in most cases. The Full Kelly formula is a lot more complicated.
So for Even Money bets, Variance is 1 and the formul becomes EV X Bankoll.
For BJ with Variance around 1.3, it becomes EV/1.3. So in BJ if you have say at TC 5 EV of 2%, Kelly Bet is 1.5% (2%/1.3)
In the 1 in a 100 shot game the Variance will be around 100.
So with EV 5%, the Kelly Bet is 5%/100 = 0,05% of the Bankroll.
So, just Positive EV is not enough. Variance is very important to determine the level of the bet based on the Bankroll.
A game with 2% EV and low Variance might be better than a game with 5% EV and very High Variance because you can make much bigger bets with the low variance with the same risk of ruin on the bankroll.
August 18th, 2014 at 8:23:32 AM
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Great Post Ace2.
What's the formula to calculate variance?
What's the formula to calculate variance?
August 18th, 2014 at 9:24:22 AM
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Not the variance formula, but almost as useful:
Edit: This is mostly what AceTwo said, but following the link has more information.
Quote: Wizard Of Odds
Edit: This is mostly what AceTwo said, but following the link has more information.
May the cards fall in your favor.
August 18th, 2014 at 11:38:16 AM
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Quote: CrakonGreat Post Ace2.
What's the formula to calculate variance?
For many game you will find the Variance in WoO website. I believe WoO shows Standard Deviation and
Variance = (St. Dev)^2
To calculate it yourself
Variance = Sum of (X -EV)^2 for all X using appropriate Weight to Sum it up based on each outcomes probability
X being each Individual Outcome
For example in a game with the following Oucomes
Win +1 30%
Win +2 20%
Lose -1 50%
EV = (1 * 0.3) +(2 * 0.2) + (-2 * 0.5) = +0.2 (ie 20%)
Variance 30%*(1-0.2)^2 + 20%*(2-0.2)^2 +50%(-1-0.2)^2 = 1.56
August 18th, 2014 at 4:14:10 PM
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since a casinos edge in any game plays out over millions of plays then you would also have to ride out variances as well that could eat your entire bankroll. casinos do lose on some days so if they can lose on a single day while milliions of dollars are changing hands you would have to be a millionaire to exploit such a system in my humble opinion. As soon as the casinos saw you actually raking in 5 percent wins over them in the long run they would find a way to get rid of the edge or ask you to leave. no casino will sit back and watch as someone eats away at their bottom line year after year.
Winner 7! Pay the line
August 18th, 2014 at 5:01:43 PM
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Quote: CRMousseauAlright, I'll bite; where is the misunderstanding? Is it because the Kelly Criterion only applies to even money bets?
The Kelly criterion does not only apply to even-money bets, but there is a misconception that the Kelly Criterion tells you to bet your edge multiplied by your bankroll, and that is incorrect. (It is correct for even-money bets, but incorrect in general).
All the math is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion but for bets with only 2 possible results (win or lose, ie, not bets with multiple payoffs for different results) it reduces to (expected net win) / (total net win when you win).
This basically boils down to dividing your edge by the odds. So if you have a 5% edge on a bet that pays 5-1, you should bet 1% of your bankroll, not 5%.
For bets with more than 2 possibilities (ie, multiple possible win or loss amounts, like blackjack, where you can win or lose between 1 and 8 times your bet, or video poker, where there are several possible results) it's more complicated. You want to maximize the expectation of the log of your bankroll after the bet. I have a very (very very) small amount of code that I just wrote a few weeks ago, that calculates this down to whatever granularity you specify; I usually go with down to 0.1% of your bankroll. I use it for video poker (where I just get the frequency distribution from the Wizard's generated return tables) and blackjack (where I generate the probabilities from my own simulations).
The nice thing is that it works even for games where your results are not going to be normally distributed until you have played a lot (like video poker). The skew does not hurt it (it's not an estimate based on variance or standard deviation -- it's exact)
