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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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November 22nd, 2013 at 7:42:10 AM permalink
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/282/

the PGP question: I have to assume this is about somehow knowing what your first card is going to be before you place your bet?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 22nd, 2013 at 7:50:46 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 22nd, 2013 at 7:51:18 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I have to assume this is about somehow knowing what your first card is going to be before you place your bet?



It is. You can see why Eliot asked here.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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November 22nd, 2013 at 6:05:50 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It is. You can see why Eliot asked here.



Aha!
Quote:

two of the industry’s best, Charles Mousseau and Michael Shackleford



If not allowed to bet more than a player did in his own hand on the Dragon hand, seems to me it would be possible to, say, bet 8X the minimum in one's own hand, then vary the dragon bet with either the minimum or 8X the minimum "depending" and still have an advantage play - player would need a respectable bankroll. Or no?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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November 22nd, 2013 at 6:23:18 PM permalink
My question is how often could you hole card this? Was it easy?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 22nd, 2013 at 6:27:07 PM permalink
The way I would play it is if I saw a joker or ace then bet the full amount of my primary hand, and if not, bet nothing on the dragon. There will be a joker or ace 5/53 = 9.43% of the time. The expected win in such hands is .1608 units. So, the expected win on the Dragon per Ante bet is (5/53)*0.1608 = 0.0152. That is not enough to overcome the house edge of 2.73% on my primary hand.

However, if I'm going to play pai gow poker anyway, this would be a good way to cut down the overall house edge.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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November 22nd, 2013 at 7:02:23 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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November 22nd, 2013 at 7:10:29 PM permalink
Only reason I ask is because I will often hear of someone who claims to be hole carding. MY EYES GET BIG and I think WOW. I rarely see this opportunity any more. Admittedly I don't spend a lot of time looking. 10 min later they are asking to borrow money. I'm like WTF ...How do you not have a ton of money while hole carding? The truth comes out, they MAY see one in a blue moon.

After this information, I think I will spend more time looking at pai gow
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Zcore13
Zcore13
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November 22nd, 2013 at 7:11:07 PM permalink
I just played Pai Gow at the Orleans yesterday and it had Dragon Hand. Not only that, but it was a very low sit down table I was on. I'm pretty sure I could have seen some hole cards. Wish I would have known...


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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November 22nd, 2013 at 7:11:49 PM permalink
The play is basically dead now. It was a great play for a few years.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.

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