Desperately Seeking Baccarat

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Since when is baccarat 50/50?

You didn't know that Baccarat is 50/50? Don't you understand that true Baccarat players are able to change probabilities, distribution, shoe trends and predict the future just with the power of their thoughts?

How else do you expect Baccarat to be a +EV game?

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Quote: Mission146

Well, if you're talking about shuffle-tracking, then that might be a viable method. Also, I find that the Banker/Player bets can both be counted, to a certain extent, though advantageous situations are few and far between. It seems that you can also look at the remaining cards in the shoe when you get down to one deck and assess the value of each card to each of those two bets to determine if either is at an advantage.

Again, few and far between, but possibly viable as a recreation.

That would be roughly equivalent to a single-deck baccarat game. or whatever the size of the segment you can track is. If you run simulations on that you'll see that the edge isn't terribly meaningful. You get more frequent betting opportunities but the advantages that do occur are still tiny.

The only way to shuffle-track very profitably as a practical matter is cut a slug of tens + even-valued cards so they appear right at the death of the deal, and bet the farm on the tie when you get a favourable subset. That made me a small fortune when bj-style mini-bac shuffles were still common.

Card location strategies are also theoretically viable, but generally required something extreme like a single-riffle to be worth exploring.

I have looked at shuffle tracking, I don't subscribe to it. Where I am presently they cut off anything from half a deck to a full deck. To follow any particular 8 or 9, I believe not only is it futile, which side is going to get it? What it is going to paired with, more ways for it not to be a 10. Ditto my brief tracking of the occurrence of Ties (consisting of 6 x 10's and otherwise), where they occurred in a shoe, card subsets involved. Tie's happen when they happen, you would have more success long term attempting to predict a Banco or Punto result than a Tie. If it works or worked for you, then kudos, I just can't see it myself with 8 deck shoes (I've read your subset stuff on the web).

To clarify, I neither trend (because I'm in the camp of non-correlated hands rendering prior hands as meaningless), nor do I play any of the so called standard bet approaches such as FLD, OLD, DBL (very basic pattern capturing techniques). I also recently (for the lone sarcastic voice in the shadows), enjoyed 27 consecutive winning sessions at one venue (so will assume have a handle on what I am doing), turning an original few "bag's" into +45 bags.

I made the "dilemma" post, to highlight that any player shouldn't simply sit at any Baccarat table with their eyes shut, blind to the obvious, thinking prior hands are totally meaningless. While every hand is an independent outcome and nobody is disputing that, if you start losing many consecutive hands, sometimes it might pay to take a glance at the score board!!! But why should that be necessary as every hand is an independent 50-50 proposition?

Quote: egalite

I made the "dilemma" post, to highlight that any player shouldn't simply sit at any Baccarat table with their eyes shut, blind to the obvious, thinking prior hands are totally meaningless. While every hand is an independent outcome and nobody is disputing that, if you start losing many consecutive hands, sometimes it might pay to take a glance at the score board!!! But why should that be necessary as every hand is an independent 50-50 proposition?

You know the reason for statements such as these?: One word: Frustration.

Look, its happened to each and every experienced Bac player at some point or another:

The "system" (again, I hate that word) that you're utilizing at the moment is the very opposite of what this shoe's current results are dispensing. And so you and your bankroll are in the midst of a good a**whoopin'. Feels good, don't it?

Very frustrating when the results are nowhere near those that you've planned for. Those are the players that walk away from the table dejected and talking to themselves.

There exists an antidote to that horrible happenstance and the "loser" feeling that goes along with it:

Trending.

Patient, disciplined, and consistent trending.

Any truly experienced and serious Bac player knows at least this much:

YOU CAN'T FORCE A SQUARE PEG INTO A ROUND HOLE. THEREFORE, YOU MUST ALLOW THE GAME TO COME TO YOU, AS OPPOSED TO "CHASING" THE GAME.

I don't care how much you try to "load up" on your bets in order to recoup, you can do nothing to change the results when the shoe and your "system" are fighting with each other.

One must learn to recognize shoe and table trends, and adjust to them. That's done in any one of these three ways:

1.) No-bet

Sit it out to await your preferred plays to appear. Await their trigger and then bet, not before.

2.) Adjust your "system"

Switch your bet selection process to whatever this particular shoe's results appear disposed toward.

3.) Change tables

Get out of the chair if you're getting too frustrated with the results.

It is absolute foolishness, this notion of "prior hands have no impact on future results", uttered only by those that no know better. Sure each hand is an independent outcome, but to use that an excuse to totally dismiss the very real nature of shoe and table trends is absolutely ridiculous.

I trend because, well, I'm good at it. I control my money because I can. I bet when I sense an advantage.

And that, Egalite, will never, ever happen while I'm "fighting" a shoe. That's a battle I know I can't win. Much better to learn to decipher each shoe's propensities and directions rather than to simply put your head down and push your money onto the felt in the hopes and prayers that the results will match your pre-set "system".

As always, I wish you all the very best of it.

Quote: gr8player

You know the reason for statements such as these?: One word: Frustration.

You got that part totally WRONG.

It wasn't posted out of frustration, it was posted to simply highlight some of the crossed wires in this thread. Sure every hand is an independent random event and prior results mean absolutely NOTHING and have no bearing on future outcomes, YET it sometimes is necessary to pay attention to the score board if you are losing many consecutive bets. It really shouldn't matter logically speaking, yet it can do.

Quote: gr8player

Look, its happened to each and every experienced Bac player at some point or another:

what would that be exactly? You're making far too many assumptions and coming to the wrong conclusion over an oxymoron.

Quote: gr8player

It is absolute foolishness, this notion of "prior hands have no impact on future results", uttered only by those that no know better. Sure each hand is an independent outcome, but to use that an excuse to totally dismiss the very real nature of shoe and able trends is absolutely ridiculous.

But they don't, results are retrospective and don't mean anything in terms of the next hand or hands (the shoe is going two by two, quick follow them, oops they ended, the shoe is chopping, opps where the hell did that 10 streak just come from), I've spent more than enough time at the tables to appreciate this. Grab any sized set of binary tables equivalent to how far you look back and you might discover there are more ways for any trend not to continue than to continue. What you spout here is pure gamblers fallacy. Hence I don't trend, haven't for the last xx years, don't need to and ain't about to start traveling down that road of mumbo-jumbo.

Quote: Mission146

Don't you understand that true Baccarat players are able to change probabilities, distribution, shoe trends and predict the future just with the power of their thoughts?

I seek to "change" nothing, Mission146, for I've long ago come to the realization that I have no power to do so.

But, my friend, I can "control", and that I will never give up.

I, myself, ME....I, ultimately, will be the determinate of my results at the Bac tables, all because I am fully aware of what I can and cannot control.

You want to put up the casino's 1% over that, fine, that's your prerogative.

As for myself, I like my chances, especially over the long term.

I played three sessions at Mohegan; one on Thursday night and a doubleheader yesterday afternoon/evening. I won all three. Ten units (my apex win goal) on Thursday night (the "2-hole" was filling like crazy), I won 3/4 of a unit on Friday afternoon (tougher session, was never winning, recouped on a nice little straight zz), and I won another 5 units on Friday evening (mostly on my "anti-2" play...the Player's side, for better than 1/2 the shoe, never went past the 2-hole); total for trip almost 16 units. Admittedly, that's better than I usually do, as I play a rather conservative/tight game.

As always, I wish it for all of you.

Quote: egalite

.....results are retrospective and don't mean anything in terms of the next hand or hands (the shoe is going two by two, quick follow them, oops they ended, the shoe is chopping, opps where the hell did that 10 streak just come from), I've spent more than enough time at the tables to appreciate this. Hence I don't trend, haven't for the last xx years, don't need to and ain't about to start traveling down that road of mumbo-jumbo.

Egalite, it's all good. Don't trend if you're not confident in doing so. I wouldn't either if I felt similar to you.

I like it. I'm rather adept at it, to the point of having a keen sense when the direction of the shoe is about to change. The triggers I utilize are not just to put me onto impending trends; I also have triggers to put me off of them.

Not everybody can do what I do. I get it, and I'm fine with it.

You appear both frustrated and agitated about it. Chill out, man. Play your game as you see fit. It's your money....

Quote: gr8player

Egalite, it's all good. Don't trend if you're not confident in doing so. I wouldn't either if I felt similar to you.

I like it. I'm rather adept at it, to the point of having a keen sense when the direction of the shoe is about to change. The triggers I utilize are not just to put me onto impending trends; I also have triggers to put me off of them.

Not everybody can do what I do. I get it, and I'm fine with it.

You appear both frustrated and agitated about it. Chill out, man. Play your game as you see fit. It's your money....

Confidence? Didn't you lose recently? Just like a rusty exhaust that continually back-fires, so now you can predict the future OMG, "the pending swing", will this dribble ever cease?

FYI I make more in comps than you rake in months, currently have $15k worth of comps from my Goldcoast trip waiting to be spent / used by Feb, that's on top of what I have already utilized. Today grabbed myself a new Samsung galaxy 4, Dr Dre head phones, computer speakers, 28" LCD and a whole lot more to the value of $2000, it all cost me zilch. Plus I still have more free shopping vouchers as I ran out of things to buy. My recent airfare, hotel, food, more shopping onsite along with the 30% discount for black tier members, all cost me zero. Those boys that run the Star City chain sure do know how to look after their important patrons.

If you send them $50k, they will give you $5000 worth of chips to play with. So if you were only intending to use $10k of your own money, put that together with their free $5000 and you have a 50% minimized risk factor, for what? A small investment, can't argue with that. The VIP rooms here are a bit like a poker circuit, you begin to start recognizing the same interstate players, moving around the country, no hiding behind anonymity here big fella.

Anyway my cherub, do continue bamboozling & winning them over great-player, the attention must be so gratifying, off to the tool shed after each post perhaps? Educating and enlightening the masses, you are very much appreciated and should be commended for your tireless effort and sterling en-devour. Even managing to squeeze in a condensed trip report (winning ones only of course, nobody wants to read 'bout losing, so let's skip them and not let's mess up the agenda). Bet they were dem "full sized", ya know those really big ones, jumping in 'n' out of those two-holes, just wanna say tremendous old chap, absolutely marvelous. Two nights would be enough for any man over 50.

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Quote: egalite

FYI I make more in comps than you rake in months.......

Color me impressed......

Quote: egalite

Confidence? Didn't you lose recently?.............

.............Even managing to squeeze in a condensed trip report (winning ones only of course, nobody wants to read 'bout losing, so let's skip them and not let's mess up the agenda).

I posted of my losing session, you even reference it above. Yet in the very same post, you chide me for posting "winning ones only". Do you think before you write, or is it your own personal vendetta that always takes precedence?

Quote: egalite

Two nights would be enough for any man over 50.

Two things you should know, Egalite:

1.) I only go one night, usually on Thursdays. I drive home on Friday nights, because I've got to be at work 8:30 AM sharp on Saturday. We go back a long way, my friend, I should've thought you'd be well-versed regarding my casino schedule.

2.) We must go back a long way, indeed. I am now over 60.

+1.....Cincy has a 10-10,0000 spread

Quote: sisyphus

+1.....Cincy has a 10-10,0000 spread

'scuse me, where did you mean to put that comma? It makes a bit of a difference BTW ;-)
Careful wid dose commas boys and girls, some nutjob might sue you.
And win ;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

'scuse me, where did you mean to put that comma? It makes a bit of a difference BTW ;-)
Careful wid dose commas boys and girls, some nutjob might sue you.
And win ;-)

The song that proves comma use is very important:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8ORHVdTxbg

Apparently it didn't end well for GR8player, according to a post on GG.

Ensure you anti-virus is up-to-date before visiting that site.

Quote: CyrusV

Apparently it didn't end well for GR8player, according to a post on GG.

Ensure you anti-virus is up-to-date before visiting that site.

Please do tell. I'm not going to that shithole site.

Quote: CyrusV

Apparently it didn't end well for GR8player, according to a post on GG.
.

Did he finally go belly up? It was
only a matter of time.

Quote: AxelWolf

Please do tell. I'm not going to that shithole site.

Not sure I can reproduce what was posted at GG here, so will refrain.

A poster mentioned he became another gambling suicide statistic.