Desperately Seeking Baccarat

Hello all. I just happened upon this open forum, and decided to join it, as I'm familiar with Wiz's other site and always found it both repectful and enlightening. And, in my brief perusal here, this appears similar.

By way of introduction, I'm a confirmed Baccarat "trender", and I've previously posted, rather extensively, at both the Glen and Baccarat Forum sites.

While I've seen both a Blackjack and Craps section here, I've seen no Baccarat section, and I can't help but wonder why, seeing as how there's probably 5 tables of Baccarat to every single table of Craps at most AC and CT joints.

Anyhow, here's a request for a new Baccarat section, all in the hopes that those that are interested might be a bit more inclined to discuss the(ir) game here in this forum if there existed a dedicated section.

Sidenote: Yes, I am fully aware of the Wiz's stance on "trending", and it's viability (or, should I say, lack thereof) as it pertains to games of chance. I trust, however, that he wouldn't object to anyone discussing their personal beliefs and/or experiences regarding same.

I look forward to some open discussions.

Quote: gr8player

Sidenote: Yes, I am fully aware of the Wiz's stance on "trending"

You won't be censored, but don't expect the W. to participate either.

Quote: gr8player

I look forward to some open discussions.

Remains to be seen who can take it, often the thread originator is the one who decides it is too 'open', open season maybe [g]

Quote: gr8player

Hello all. I just happened upon this open forum, and decided to join it, as I'm familiar with Wiz's other site and always found it both repectful and enlightening. And, in my brief perusal here, this appears similar.

By way of introduction, I'm a confirmed Baccarat "trender", and I've previously posted, rather extensively, at both the Glen and Baccarat Forum sites.

While I've seen both a Blackjack and Craps section here, I've seen no Baccarat section, and I can't help but wonder why, seeing as how there's probably 5 tables of Baccarat to every single table of Craps at most AC and CT joints.

Anyhow, here's a request for a new Baccarat section, all in the hopes that those that are interested might be a bit more inclined to discuss the(ir) game here in this forum if there existed a dedicated section.

Sidenote: Yes, I am fully aware of the Wiz's stance on "trending", and it's viability (or, should I say, lack thereof) as it pertains to games of chance. I trust, however, that he wouldn't object to anyone discussing their personal beliefs and/or experiences regarding same.

I look forward to some open discussions.

I'm currently running through RNG's in 8 deck Baccarat on the Wizards site. I'm nearly half way through 1000 decks nearly 40,000 hands. Yeah, no life. My first observation is that Baccarat doesn't kick out as many runs or at least the runs seem to be shorter. Just an observation. Longest player/banker streak 10. In Roulette at 40,000 spins you could expect to see 10 plus runs of 15 or more. I'll crack the game by dinner.

Odiousgambit, "luvin'" that Mark Twain quote. Nice touch, man.

Treetopbuddy: >I'll crack the game by dinner.< Yep. Sure you will....

Let's see...some 30-odd years of Bac experience, and it's STILL a personal struggle to "crack" this game at each and every new session.

No doubt about it, Treetopbuddy, you certainly do need a way to "crack" the inherent "choppiness" of this game in order to succeed over the long term.

I wish you the very best of it.

Quote: gr8player

Odiousgambit, "luvin'" that Mark Twain quote. Nice touch, man.

Treetopbuddy: >I'll crack the game by dinner.< Yep. Sure you will....

Let's see...some 30-odd years of Bac experience, and it's STILL a personal struggle to "crack" this game at each and every new session.

No doubt about it, Treetopbuddy, you certainly do need a way to "crack" the inherent "choppiness" of this game in order to succeed over the long term.

I wish you the very best of it.

how about the Wrangler march with a Guetting progression.....?

Think about it a minute, if you will. Think of the "Law of Series"......where it is written that there are more 1's than 2's, more 2's than 3's, and more 3's than 4's (or more's).

Now, in and of itself, no real advantage to be had there, even with that knowledge.

BUUUTTT, if one were savvy enough to "specialize" (read: build their main play around) in ferreting out those "choppy" portions of the shoe, and have both a MM plan with a "recoup mode" built in as well, one could be best prepared to "capitalize" (read: maximize) their potential profitability on same.

My philosophy: You simply cannot afford to allow yourself to be "caught off-guard" while playing this game. Be prepared for all possibilities to arise, and have a response to it. One of my favorite responses: the "no-bet". When in doubt, sit it out. Betting more and more into a "losing jag" will NOT make the cards cooperate any better. Preferable play should include more than one "no-bet" mode.

When it appears as if the shoe/table is more pre-disposed to dispensing some better results for your sort of play, that is the prime time to re-commence your betting.

Will you always be right? Nope.

But, over the long term, you'll save yourself from some over-betting and the over-stress that goes with it.

I wish you all the best of it.

Quote: treetopbuddy

how about the Wrangler march with a Guetting progression.....?

Released "free" horse racing system....no response. Now releasing "free" Baccarat system. In an 8 deck shoe begin counting down deck e.g. Banker=+1 Player=-1. When deck becomes skewed + or - 7, straight bet the side that is lagging. You won't win every shoe but you take some variance out of the shoe. Don't expect a response on this can't lose system. Hey, at least I'm not advocating negative progression. Moving on to The Wheel of Fortune.

Quote: gr8player

the "no-bet". When in doubt, sit it out.

Purely by putting up less against the HE will in fact save you money. On average.

re: Twain quote, thanks!

Treetopbuddy: >Hey, at least I'm not advocating negative progression.<

Geat job, TTB. Flat betting is the MM of preference. Just know, you can always "adjust" your flat-bet size.

Knowing exactly when to do that, my friend, is the key. My suggestion: garner as many "variance" stats as you can about your preferred plays, and then build your "flat-bet size adjustments" accordingly.

So, you released a horse racing method? And got no response? Well, here's one...I'd like to view it if you can make it available.

Quote: odiousgambit

Purely by putting up less against the HE will in fact save you money. On average.

Correct.

But that's not quite what I have in mind whenever I'm in "no-bet" mode. It's not all about the house edge for me. I much prefer to concentrate on my edges, defined thusly:

I can bet where and when I choose to.
I can bet how much (or less) as I choose to.
I can terminate a shoe and/or session as I choose to.

I use those edges to the very best of my ability to, at the very least, put myself in the very best position to succeed over the long term.

Why? Because they're all I've got. I've no crystal ball, and thusly have no concrete evidence of the next decision about to be played out.

But I'm fine with that. I have pre-set "exit strategies" for each contingency; win, lose, or draw.

In other words, I fully recognize what I can control, and what I cannot. And what I can control, I control to my very best advantage. Absolutely imperative, and absolutely inexcusable if it's not an integral part of your own play.

Quote: gr8player

I use those edges to the very best of my ability to, at the very least, put myself in the very best position to succeed over the long term.

Quote: odiousgambit

You won't be censored, but don't expect the W. to participate either.

Someone ought to keep telling him that he's deluded. How else to account for his still firmly believing in the same simplistic edges after 30 years? "Religious fervor" doesn't cut it, I'm afraid.

Reminds of the extreme gangs which end up in Las Vegas after having been chased out of L.A. by the law. Finally, a place where they can fit in.

Quote: Lexinger

Someone ought to keep telling him that he's deluded. How else to account for his still firmly believing in the same simplistic edges after 30 years? "Religious fervor" doesn't cut it, I'm afraid.

Reminds of the extreme gangs which end up in Las Vegas after having been chased out of L.A. by the law. Finally, a place where they can fit in.

crickets

Crotch crickets?

Lexinger, please be assured that I am rather distanced from being any sort of "delusional". While you may or may not agree with my perceived "player's edges" and their inherent value to me, I simply cannot see that as a reason to perceive me as "deluded".

Each and every one of those edges are our very necessary "survival kit" for any casino gaming, IMHO.

Think about it for a moment, if you will:

You just completed a decent run-up of wins through, say, a Player's "domination" in this last portion of the shoe. You've not only hit your win goal, you've surpassed it. A prudent man might (read: could/would/SHOULD) consider "walking" at this advantageous time.

Imagine, however, just imagine....the pit boss walks over and says "No, we prefer you to keep playing." Hmmm....the casino, not you, deciding and/or controlling your personal "exit strategy". Impossible, right? You'd never, ever play in that casino again, right?

And I can make that same case for each and every one of my "player's edges".

It is most imperative that I (WE) maintain absolute control of our own edges. I'm sure you'll agree there, wouldn't you, Lexinger?

I wish you all the very best of it.

Sounds like your trying to predict future outcomes by past results?

Going through Wizards 1000 shoe RGN'S trying to find "edges" which, sadly I still believe exist. Yeah, I don't care about the house advantage either. Don't even care that millions before me tried to crack game.

Quote: gr8player

I'm sure you'll agree there, wouldn't you, Lexinger?

For those who missed it, deluded persons aren't gamblers. They are plain deluded, and will fixate on the first hyped thing to happen to roll along. Ironically, they are the ones who spend decades regurgitating such simplistic edges, spend the most time talking about gambling per se. Textbook case. Medication indicated.

Gamblers are the ones who foster the gambling bug or seed, the intuitive mathematical feeling that things can and will work out only through playing at the casinos, then diligently convert that into active forms of denial, eg, compensation, to try to most distance themselves from what is actually the case. Here, all the way to setting up one supposedly new board after another in the hope of finally achieving that right magical formula, crowd, etc. Most gamblers are middle aged low-income pedestrian single white fundamentalist males. No longer royalty, doctors and lawyers, or even management material. Maybe the reason for the greater part of the homosexual references and conversation?

Gambling enthusiasts, even the greater part of the casino industry, who do speak of it in the proper mathematical terms, basically fall into the same rut in that they perpetuate not becoming addicts. Like the supposedly morally upright and always dieting crowd... straight and narrow, step on the white squares not the black.

I once sat down at a MiniBacc table and the Floor brought over a chart and a pencil and put them in front of me. Didn't offer or ask or anything. Sort of a this is how the game is played type thing.
Some blokes actually believe in trends, even those who are flooring the MiniBacc pit.

I think I may have hurt his feelings when I tossed the crap aside. I know the other players at the table were all diligently keeping track of things.

Lexinger: >....setting up one board after another...seeking the right crowd<

I've posted, in detail, at the Gambler's Glen baccarat message board and at the now-defunct Baccarat Forum. Posted. Not an owner nor even an administrator. Would I like to further discuss this game? Yes, hence the title of this thread. But you seem to allude to something...like I've been all over the internet desperately seeking some chumps that are, to use your own favorite description, "deluded" enough to follow my beliefs.

I state the truth as I see it in every aspect of my baccarat game. What you do with that truth is your business. Should you wish to discuss it with me, I am here. If, however, you insist on demeaning my character and/or misstating my position(s) without so much as asking me to clarify same; in those cases I will prefer to ignore your incessant rants.

TreeTopBuddy, I'm afraid you'll find no such "mathematical edge" to be had in those shoes. The mathematical edge remains with the "house"...now and forever. It is an uphill battle, for sure, to secure our own advantages. But I happen to be of the opinion that it IS do-able. But it takes work...real work.

If I were you, I'd begin with:

Find a bet placement that you're comfortable with. Now go through those same shoes, if you will, and calculate the "variances" of same. Then construct a MM plan around those variances. Then learn the very necessary patience and discipline to stick with your bet selection/MM plan. That's the bare-bones basics, but a great start, IMHO.

FleaStiff, you, obviously, are not a "trender". So there's virtually no need for the baccarat scorecards. And that's OK, too. If you're fine with that, if you don't like to trend or even disbelieve in any trending, there's nothing wrong with that. If I were sitting right next to you at the same table, and I bet the Banker's side and you bet the Player's side, we'd both have, pretty much the same chances of winning and/or losing our bet.

Trender's have no advantage over any other players at the table. Toss a coin, if you will, to determine your next bet placement. Whatever floats your boat.

But, while I prefer trending, it is MY REACTION to my trending results that separates me from most of the other players. I know what to look for, WIN OR LOSE. I know what to do next, WIN OR LOSE. All because I know how my preferred trends "form", how they "play out", and how their inherent "variances" measure up.

Might it be that those that do not believe in trending DO NOT have that knowledge at hand and, thusly, have been soured to the whole trending "process"?

I happen to think so.

I wish you all the very best of it.

" Trender's have no advantage over any other players at the table. "

That's the first thing you have said that I agree with.

Quote: Buzzard

" Trender's have no advantage over any other players at the table. "

Actually they do have an advantage, they can blame their losses on their failure to properly interpret the trend. And they all get to share their mistakes together. The orientals tend to follow the guy with the largest chip pile in front of him.

Face it, choosing by trend is about as valid as anything else... and some people do enjoy it.

Quote: Lexinger

For those who missed it, deluded persons aren't gamblers. They are plain deluded, and will fixate on the first hyped thing to happen to roll along. Ironically, they are the ones who spend decades regurgitating such simplistic edges, spend the most time talking about gambling per se. Textbook case. Medication indicated.

Gamblers are the ones who foster the gambling bug or seed, the intuitive mathematical feeling that things can and will work out only through playing at the casinos, then diligently convert that into active forms of denial, eg, compensation, to try to most distance themselves from what is actually the case. Here, all the way to setting up one supposedly new board after another in the hope of finally achieving that right magical formula, crowd, etc. Most gamblers are middle aged low-income pedestrian single white fundamentalist males. No longer royalty, doctors and lawyers, or even management material. Maybe the reason for the greater part of the homosexual references and conversation?

Gambling enthusiasts, even the greater part of the casino industry, who do speak of it in the proper mathematical terms, basically fall into the same rut in that they perpetuate not becoming addicts. Like the supposedly morally upright and always dieting crowd... straight and narrow, step on the white squares not the black.

Has anyone here located a web translator for this gibberish? I feel like I'm up the stream of consciousness without a paddle.

FleaStiff: >The orientals tend to follow the guy with the largest chip stack.<

They tend to follow the guy that's "hot"; that's been winning a majority of his/hers bets. I call it the "all aboard".

MonkeyMonkey (now there's a fellow Bac player if I've ever read one), no need for any translator in order to understand where Lexinger's coming from. He appears to me as a rather cynical sort, and one who likes to "paint with rather broad strokes". Every gambler, every poster, EVERYONE; he's got us all figured out in all his self-annointed brilliancy/superiority. Leave him be. Every public forum has their "Lexinger"s; probably best to accept it as the price of admission.

Quote: gr8player

MonkeyMonkey (now there's a fellow Bac player if I've ever read one), no need for any translator in order to understand where Lexinger's coming from. He appears to me as a rather cynical sort, and one who likes to "paint with rather broad strokes". Every gambler, every poster, EVERYONE; he's got us all figured out in all his self-annointed brilliancy/superiority. Leave him be. Every public forum has their "Lexinger"s; probably best to accept it as the price of admission.

Actually, I deal it more than play it, but it is a fun game to play (to me anyway), I enjoy the social interactions of the players.

As far as Lex goes, with his latest tirade against the Wiz and the way he seems to have generally rubbed just about everyone the wrong way, I don't think his presence will be part of the price of admission for a whole lot longer. I think I can live with that. :)

I played at the new Horseshoe Casino in Cincinnati. Nice place. Played Baccarat for the first time. There are 3 Baccarat tables 25-10-10 minimums and 100 k maximum? I found it interesting that the casino runs just 3 Baccarat games in an 500 square foot area. Cosy and tucked away. All Asian players. Not one whitey except me. I played for 8 hours or approximately 8 shoes. I didn't feel any pressure playing Baccarat unlike all the other games I've played. With craps the 7 is alway lurking, waiting to take all your money. Roulette the 0-00 always shows at the worst time. Blackjack the dealer draws 99 cards to get 21. Horse racing it's the 5 or more horses that could beat my pick. While playing Baccarat I never had the feeling that the "boogie man" was going to get me. I simply bet the Banker line and used an up as you win progression....1-1-1-2-2-3-3-5-5 and stop. Was able to catch several runs during the 8 hours of play. Ended up winning so that makes me a professional Bac player if I never play again.

Great job, Treetopbuddy! And some nice insight, as well. Pardon my indulgence as I add the following:

There exists a "boogie man" in every form of gambling. That's simply the nature of the beast. So, my friend, while you apparently averted his presence at your last session, it'd probably be a smart idea to keep a constant vigil by looking over your shoulder. What do I mean by that? You'd best be prepared to know what to do when the cards aren't quite as kind to you as they were at your last session. Have a pre-planned response when the randomness of this game is not quite matching the results that you're seeking. Hint: The "no-bet" option....betting more and more won't switch the results to your desired effect....better to cease betting and await that time when the table's results are more suited to your style of play.

I do like the up-as-you-win (read: positive) progression. Looks a bit like the Guetting Progression. If you've never seen it, you might want to try googling Guetting Progression and taking a gander at it.

Lastly, TTB, yes, if you cease playing Bac now, you've successfully completed your albeit brief Bac career as a winner. Congrats. That said, methinks you will surely play this game again, but, still, remember to keep that same train of thought...."Winner"...."Quitting a winner". Always keep one eye toward your exit strategy whenever you've got the casino's money. Catch your run-up and look to run with it in your pockets. They'll always deal the cards again tomorrow. Set short, easily-obtainable win goals, both on session and daily basis'. That's thinking as a winner; and thinking a a winner is half the battle to fulfillment..

Thanks for input gr8player. Yes, I do understand that variance can be one of the "boogie men" found in all games of chance. The game is played at a nice pace and I simply felt like I was playing heads or tails. Who doesn't like playing heads or tails?

While playing the game, I noticed that most players were obsessed with the history board. They were obviously trying to identify patterns or trends. It's hard for me to believe that a player "can look around corners" or glean any info from board to determine the next play.

It looks like Baccarat is going to become my game of choice until I bust out. I'll need to purchase a copy of Rosetta Stone's.... how to speak Chinese.

Treetopbuddy: >It's hard for me to believe that a player "can look around corners" or glean any info from board to determine the next play.<

That's OK. Alot of players do not believe in trending. Alot do. I suppose it's all a matter of personal choice. But, let's ask ourselves: Where does "personal choice" come frome, generally speaking? Comfortability. Familiarity. I happen to be both comfortable and familiar with "trend catching" and "trend betting". And that all serves to clarify the "big picture" that you referred to above as the "history board". And then it's but a short step to, as you so aptly put it above, "determining the next play". Notice you and I both used the term "determining" as opposed to the term "predicting". While I surely can determine my next bet placements; I most assuredly can predict nothing. No crystal ball. No tea leaves. Just experience. Oh, and some worthy statistics, regarding the Laws of Series and regarding my preferred bet selections' variances. Oh, and some money-management processes built around those stats.

When you look at trending on a more personal, comfortable, and knowledgeable level, alot of the "mysteriousness" of it all evaporates right before your eyes, and that mysteriousness is replaced by a familiarity. And that is how trending is used correctly. And....dare I say it 'round here?....potentially profitable.

" And....dare I say it 'round here?....potentially profitable. "

You can say it, but only expect the mentally challenged to agree with you.

Buzzard how much money have you lost in your lifetime, gambling? I think that's a fair question to ask in light of you negative view on gambling in general. Maybe other members in the forum can comfort you, as misery loves company. Your "mentally challenged" comments are out of line and getting old. Just because you lost you ass gambling doesn't mean everybody loses gambling. You probably don't even gamble due to zero funds or you have sworn off it for life, as you have ended up in a .......... broke in Grand Junction. Yes?

Your the hall monitor waiting to pounce on anybody that might suggest they can win. Yes, we all know the math. Yes, we know that most players lose. So what's your point? Now, I do know you lose betting on horses, again, if in fact you do. Your sophomoric approach to handicapping horses is comical. Back off and stop the name calling.

Quote: Buzzard

" And....dare I say it 'round here?....potentially profitable. "

You can say it, but only expect the mentally challenged to agree with you.

Buzzard, and any other esteemed forum members with interest, please know that it matters not to me whether you do or do not agree with my line of thinking.

That said, I'm not sure that it's fair to classify those that would prefer to hear more about my take on this game as "mentally challenged". I may or may not be as intelligent as you are, Buzzard, but I am smart enough to know I'd need to know much more about you before I'd dare to classify you mistakenly. You see, my friend, much like my trending a shoe, I prefer to see some evidence of something before I proceed to pass judgement.

You might try the same.

Baccarat players typically do try and find "trends" in the shoe and I don't see anything right or wrong with that. I have found myself looking at the display to see what "patterns" may be present. I know that mathematically it doesn't make a difference, but it is still part of the entertainment value of the game and I say "To each his own" when it comes to how someone wants to bet, particularly when the behavior or decision doesn't go against optimum strategy.

I have seen those on the dice table go to the "Don't" side when playing because they feel like the dice are "cold" or some shooter never makes a point, etc. How is that any different than tracking perceived patterns in baccarat?

I would like to believe that those that look for trends in baccarat shoes might be able to watch for trends in dice as well. That is a big part of the hurdle that needs to be overcome if my dice based Baccarat concept could work. See this thread for the discussion on that: Dice Baccarat

Many have said that dice in place of the first two cards of each hand in baccarat won't work and they may be right. Would sure like to have more true baccarat enthusiasts like gr8player post on that thread and let me know their thoughts.

I didn't appreciate baccarat 2 years ago. It was a game without strategic decisions during the hand and seemed boring. But having watched it a lot and played some, I can see how players grow to like the game. Particularly with a full table and lots of money on either side......when both hands draw a third card to determine the final hand result, it can be pretty exciting. It has a community aspect to it for the majority of players that bet on one side. The game can be fun and certainly is growing in popularity in the US.

The Forum can learn a lot about how baccarat players think and play by listening to players that really enjoy the game. I recall the posts that Heather used to make and others that are the Forum's "window into the world of baccarat".

So let them tell us about the game and the culture surrounding the game without jumping on them for what the math might perceive as irrelevant and not provable. Sometimes there is more to the business of gambling than simply knowing the math.....sometimes it is just as important to learn about the players and what motivates them to keep coming back to play.

" Your sophomoric approach to handicapping horses is comical."

Now that I take offense with. As for trending and dice setting and other fallacies, put your money where your mouth is ?

Otherwise keep your deluded thoughts to yourself.

Gambling is gambling, saying you can beat the house edge by "TRENDING" is pure unadulterated bullshit.

your drinking started a little early today, right Buzzard?

I will never be drunk enough to believe in trending.

Quote: Buzzard

Gambling is gambling, saying you can beat the house edge by "TRENDING" is pure unadulterated bullshit.

Buzzard, you appear to me as rather narrow-minded. No one is saying that any trending bet selection process, in and of itself, will "beat the house edge". Trending and bet selection is but a piece of the puzzle; a puzzle that cannot be solved without other just-as-important considerations.

Look at it this way, if you will, Buzzard:

Let's use the common brick for this example. One can build a house with a brick. But not with the brick alone. Alot more materials are needed to complete a house.

I trend. Trending is an important part of my play. But I need alot more than just trending to "beat the house edge" (read: win consistently).

Try looking at the big picture rather than simply poo-pooing all that you don't understand....or, worse, that you simply refuse to understand.

Remember, Buzzard, when you applied for the Postal Service job fifty years ago and nobody believed you could get the job, including yourself? You talk about negative expectancy! But, you got the job, never moved up but you still overcame a huge negative expectancy.

Paradigm, your "tag line" says it all, "Adding value one post at a time". Nice, open-minded post, my friend, and thanks for sharing your refreshing thoughts.

As to your "Dice Baccarat", I'm afraid that I'd have no interest in it. You see, Paradigm, I play Baccarat mainly because it is what it is: A closed-end, shoe game. With a beginning, a middle, and an end. I like to separate certain "portions" of the shoe, both in looking at the history and in "guessing" its next direction. Lastly, I do happen to believe that each shoe has certain "characteristics" (dare I use the term: trends) that are unique in and of themselves, and it is those very characteristics of each shoe (and/or portion thereof) that I seek out in my play.

I do wish you all the very best of it.

O.K. gr8player.....here's your negative progression-11111-22222-33333-44444-55555. I'm suggesting that if you bust then marty the original progression thus-22222-44444-66666-88888-10-10-10-10-10-10 and once again-44444-88888-12,12,12,12,12,-16,16,16,16,16,-20,20,20,20,20. If you bust all three the it's clear that you did something very bad to somebody that was very important in an earlier life.l Isn't the essence of the bet is to win more on winning bets than you lose on losing bets?

Hello, TTB.

My "Gr8Player's Progression" contains 7 bets at each level, not 5. It must be an odd number of bets, but neither 3 nor 5 nor 9 will work as well as 7 will. So, TTB, that's the first thing I'd recommend, the 7 plays per level. Secondly, I'd trash the marty. Look, generally speaking, when things are going sour, the last thing we should be looking to do is to bet more and more per hand. That's much too stressful, both on our bankrolls and our psyches.

Not speaking about you personally, TTB, but I find that people that try to escalate their bets as quickly and/or as high as they can just in the name of "loss avoidance" are not players that are "built" for the long haul (read: long term success). These players have no confidence in their bet selection process, and, thusly, need to attempt to "muscle their way" (read: overbet) back to normalcy, rather than letting their variance upturn "come to them". It will come, if your bet selection process is worth it's weight in salt. So the question then becomes, especially for these sorts of impatient and undisciplined players: Will you be there for it, or will you be busted out beforehand?

IF I WERE one of these sorts of players, I'd suggest a "positive" (read: up-as-you-win) progression, rather than any negative (read: up-as-you-lose) one. That'll keep your bets "controllable" and "manageable" until that potential "wiining jag". In fact, there's my "tip of the day". If you can't "control yourself" within a negative progression, then go to a positive one. It'll help to control you just through its very nature.

I wish you all the very best of it.

The progression I posted is silly, no doubt. Have been playing around with the "Target method" and of course doing well on sim......but the method calls for huge spreads along the way which I'm not sure I could handle in live play. The method will bust out which is O.K. as long as your not at the table. I'll play around with your progression. Back of Buzzard.:-)

I'd scrap the "Target Method" as well, if I were you. Those "huge spreads" are much too huge, IMHO. Huge spreads mean that even when you make some money, you're making a minimal amount, but when you lose...KABLAM! Ditch it, my friend.

As you "play around with my progression", bear in mind that with mine or any negative progression, a potentially larger-than-normal loss could arise if you fail to use caution. Like:

I remain at any level if I lost that level by only 3W vs 4L, or, in other words, a minus 1 (-1). Only if I lost that level with a -3 or a -5 or a -7 will I move up to the next level in my progression.

I also will revert back down to the prior level as I recoup that last lost level. So, say I'm that I'm down 9 units, losing 3 at level 1 and 3 at level two, I will go to level 3, but as soon as I am a +2 at level 3, which recouped my -3 from level 2, I will immediately revert back to level 2 to recoup the remaining 3 units from level 1. Like this:

-1 +1 -1 -1 -1 +1 -1 = -3

-2 +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +2 = -6

-3 +3 +3 +3 = +6...now the loss from level 2 has been recouped, so revert back to level 2 to recoup that -3 from level 1.

Again, TTB, all just a matter of common sense.

And, one last thing, if I find myself living a bit too much (read: too often) in "3-ville" (read: level 3) or higher, I'd seek a new bet selection process. The current strike rate just isn't good enough for this progression and you're playing with fire in that case.

Take care.....

yes, a nice shallow progression, hoping for variance to shine on you. Living in "1-ville" is the idea. Going to Horseshoe Cincy tomorrow and will use this progression. I'm fairly sure the casino will be changing the Baccarat rules after I'm done with them. Thanks for input gr8player.

I wish you the very best of it, my friend.....have a safe and prosperous trip.

Just a bit more "food for thought" regarding my theories re: baccarat:

This past Thursday night's and Friday afternoon's bac sessions went rather well, as, collectively, I hit at a 57% strike rate for the two sessions. Now, for me, 57% is attainable, but still well above my standard averages that fall between 48 and 53 percentiles. In other words, I was experiencing an "upward variance" for those two sessions. Fine. All well and good. Except:

I was expectant of a variance correction on the downside. And, I must say, yesterday's session sure fiilled that bill:

First shoe, my results:

+1 -1 +1 +1 +1 -1 +1 = +3 (I circle the "plusses", that money never gets goes back into play.)

+1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 = -5 (Ok, on to "2-ville" for recoup.)

-2 -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 -2 = -6 Minus total now stands at -11. (Whoa, look at that, if you will....NINE consecutive losses. 9! And, I must add here: I "no-bet" after any 3 consecutive losses to await a "virtual" win, then I'll resume real betting, so, just to give you a better idea of just how terribly I was faring during this losing jag, I was hitting a "no-bet" in "virtual mode, but, when I "real" bet, I lost the bet. I must tell you, this will happen only VERY, VERY RARELY. But happen it did.)

Thank Goodness that I was prepared for it. Doesn't mean I liked it. I hated it. But it didn't catch me by surprise, leaving me as a "deer in the headlights", and just a loss or two away from "tilting" and/or "over-betting". Instead, I remained fine. And then; on to "3-ville"....I don't like living in "3-ville"; but, as you'll soon see, I was only "barely there":

+3 +3 +3 Hmmm, at this point I paused for a moment, and pondered the following:

I'm at +9 in "3-ville". 9 out of my 11 lost units are now recovered. Those last three wins, effectively, just eradicated that 9'er losing jag.

So I made the decision to revert back to base, or "1-ville". And, as it happens, quite a good choice, too, for I had lost my next bet. Or....wait...was it such a good choice?....I won my next three bets. But let me sum it up like this: If I'm going to "err"...and, let's face it, we all err at some time or another...I much prefer to "err on the side of caution". Why?:

Because, after playing this game all these years, I can tell you, unequivocally, that wins don't matter. I mean...the winning amounts don't matter. Only the losing amounts count. You can't win 5 units one session, 5 units the next, and 5 units the next, but then proceed to lose 25 units at the next session. That math, my friends, will never, ever add up favorably for anyone but "the house". It's not what you win, it's what you don't lose.

One thousand dollars. My session win goal for years. You know what I won yesterday afternoon?: Just under 200 dollars after comm and tip. Yet it was one of my sweetest wins, because I fought off my impending variance correction. I beat the rare 9'er. By how much? Who cares how much? I avoided a loss in this tougher-than-usual session.

I win the bulk of my sessions, because I am constantly seeking the exit. I'm not there to gamble. I've been gambling for years, and I'm sick of it. And, lest anyone read this incorrectly, I didn't grow sick of it because I was winning too much money. No, I had a very selective memory. I remembered my winners but disregarded my losers. Eventually, however, real truth comes through your wallet/bank account.

Now I've learned to "walk a win". Any win. The amount does not matter. And, thusly, I've learned how to win. Because I've learned how to control that which I can control. Where to bet, when to bet, and how much to bet....oh, and how to "walk a win". And, know this: those wins, regardless the size, will all add up rather nicely over the long term.

I wish it for all of you.

Thanks for the post gr8player. Unfortunately, I used the "Target Method" in Cincy. Did well for awhile but lost two straight "critical bets" in the progression, which did me in. 14 straight player decisions was my undoing. I've now lost 9 out the last 10 casino trips. JFC!

o.k.......need ideas/math help. In Cincy the Baccarat game offers 1-10,000 spread. Minimum bet 10, max bet 100,000. It seem to me that a 10 off the top bettor with 100,000 bankroll could provide a tough game against house. If possible please refrain from the house advantage angle as we all know it's inherent in game. Using progressions against 1-10,000 spread back by a large bankroll is leverage. Yes? I get the idea that most gamblers take a BB gun to an elephant hunt.

Quote: treetopbuddy

I've now lost 9 out the last 10 casino trips.

Ouch....sorry to hear it, TTB. It's rather unfortunate, as you appear to me as both intelligent and reasonable. And, my friend, you'll certainly need both in order to even begin to have any realistic opportunity to get the better of this (or any) game of chance.

Time to take a step back, TTB. Re-evaluate your position. See if there might be a "recurring theme" to those losses. And then see if there might be something within your control that you could have done to avoid them.

You may very well find no answers. Alternatively, you may find some glaring, common mistakes that you're making.

Find your strength, and play "to it". (Maybe it's horse betting and not casino gaming.)

You simply cannot afford to continue on your current path, because that's working only in favor of the casino.

Please take no offense regarding my frankness, as I deem myself rather qualified to comment on your plight because I've "been there, and done that". I adjusted my approach to this game upon realizing that it was getting the better of me. And the most revealing part of it all was the revelation that I, myself, was my own worst enemy at the table all too often. I decided that I'd either adjust my approach or I'd give up the game....any continuance of the same mistakes, all too often, was not an option for me. I was close, but close is good enough only in the game of horse-shoes. Not in casino gaming.

The biggest challenge? IMHO, it's to begin to think "long-term". Not "hanging" on every bet. Learning to "let it go" and "relax".

Think about it....do you check the market price of your home on a daily basis? Of course you don't...and your home is one of your greatest assets, right?

So why should you place so much significance on each and every "swing" of your bac bankroll? Realize that there will be inevitable "variance swings", but, in the long term, your bac bankroll should only increase, albeit slowly...but surely.

Yet again, I wish you all the very best of it.

Appreciate the input gr8player. Most trips I've been up early on, but not enough to warrant walking away. Nearest casino is an hour an fifteen mins away so gas, wear and tear vehicle, time, etc. put me in the hole before I walk into casino. So, I hang around and get ground down while attempting to make the trip worthwhile. Maybe increasing the off the top bet and decreasing time in casino and hoping for early positive variance. "Hoping", never ends well.

I'm "hearing ya'', TTB. Similar situations. I, too, live nowhere near any casino, so any trip requires a few hours each way. And, as you're apparently realizing now, that can be a rather huge, yet understated, disadvantage in so many ways. "Make the trip worthwhile"....oh, my Goodness, what that one solitary statement, alone, had probably cost me over the years...my Goodness.

Gotta get that outta your head.

Your Bac game, your bet placements, your bet sizes, your Bac bankroll.....they all know nothing of the distance 'tween your house and the casino or what it took out of you to get there. Get that all out of your mind, now.

Believe me, TTB, I, yet again, can speak through personal experience on this subject.

"Increasing the off the top bet" and/or "decreasing time in casino" and/or "hoping for early positive variance".....not a one that'll turn things positively for you, my friend. In fact, they'll sooner see you to an extension of those recent string of losses, I'm afraid.

Again, it's a matter of adapting to your current circumstances and making the very necessary changes in order to put yourself in the very best possible position to succeed.

I wish it for all of you.

So much....so very much....of this game is "mental". Adopting the correct mentality, the correct approach, to this game is literally paramount to anyone's chances at long-term success.

Sure.....I can hear the moaning and groaning all the way to my side of the computer board. "What does one's mentality have to do with getting the better of any negative expectancy game?"

Look....the negative expectancy is there, and cannot be changed. It's inherent to the game, the casino's charge for doing business. It cannot be altered. So, one needs either to deal with it or succumb to it. Their choice.

But, that said, make no mistake of it, IF one were to attempt to take on that daunted edge, and thusly seek a way to grind out profitablility at this game, it'll all begin and end with the correct mindset. The correct mentality. The adaption of a winning approach.

Will that alone be enough to offset their 1.2% vig? Nope.

But it's the "springboard" that'll get one to wrap their entire Bac game (bet selection process; money-management; conservative, attainable goals) around.

Only in totality can any player hope to acheive an edge over any casino-banked game. No one thing, no one method will suffice. Only in totality.

I wish it for all of you.