Run in the First Inning Proposition Bet
April 13th, 2012 at 4:30:00 PM
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I've been looking at the probability of a run in the first inning in baseball. Most Internet sports books offer a prop on this every game. It seems there is a pretty linear relationship between the line on the total and the probability of a first-inning run.
I just added my analysis of this to my page on betting Major League Baseball. Please have a look. As always, I welcome all comments.
I just added my analysis of this to my page on betting Major League Baseball. Please have a look. As always, I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 13th, 2012 at 5:08:40 PM
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Nice.
I see you do not consider the starting pitchers involved.
That IMO would seem have some value.
In the game you pointed to in the article, MIL VS ATL, R Wolf did indeed allow a first inning run as he also did in his first outing this year.
He also allowed 3 runs in his first 5 innings in his first game.
How about the stats on the pitchers giving up first inning runs.
I would bet that some pitchers are slow starters and do allow more runs early on and maybe even more in the very first inning.
I guess the stats can answer that observation.
I see you do not consider the starting pitchers involved.
That IMO would seem have some value.
In the game you pointed to in the article, MIL VS ATL, R Wolf did indeed allow a first inning run as he also did in his first outing this year.
He also allowed 3 runs in his first 5 innings in his first game.
How about the stats on the pitchers giving up first inning runs.
I would bet that some pitchers are slow starters and do allow more runs early on and maybe even more in the very first inning.
I guess the stats can answer that observation.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
April 13th, 2012 at 6:35:43 PM
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Quote: 7crapsI see you do not consider the starting pitchers involved.
I wanted to keep it simple. I figure that the total already reflects how good the starting pictures are. Where I think I'm weak is in overlooking the closing pitchers, but they usually pitch only two innings.
The following table is rather tangential but it shows the average number of runs per inning.
| Inning | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5253 | 0.6158 | 1.1411 |
| 2 | 0.4496 | 0.4983 | 0.9479 |
| 3 | 0.5063 | 0.5643 | 1.0706 |
| 4 | 0.5300 | 0.5569 | 1.0870 |
| 5 | 0.5133 | 0.5638 | 1.0771 |
| 6 | 0.5361 | 0.5749 | 1.1110 |
| 7 | 0.4945 | 0.5319 | 1.0265 |
| 8 | 0.4762 | 0.5147 | 0.9909 |
| 9 | 0.4479 | 0.2299 | 0.6777 |
| 10+ | 0.0886 | 0.0687 | 0.1573 |
| Total | 4.5677 | 4.7193 | 9.2870 |
Source: 2001 to 2011 seasons.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 13th, 2012 at 10:12:51 PM
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I find it very strange that the home team is much more likely to score in the first inning, while the away team doesn't have that advantage. Anyone have a reason why?
April 13th, 2012 at 10:36:15 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleI find it very strange that the home team is much more likely to score in the first inning, while the away team doesn't have that advantage. Anyone have a reason why?
the home team is more likely to score in all of the first eight innings, by a slim margin.
probably due to the effect of not having to travel, not staying in a hotel,
having more familiarity with playing conditions of the field, home crowd psychological advantage...
look at how much more likely the away team is to score in the ninth!
this is more statistically significant than the other innings
that is a more interesting phenomena IMO.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:43:48 PM
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Sorry, I'll rephrase.
The home team is most likely to score in the first inning rather than any other inning.
The away team does not follow that pattern.
The home team is most likely to score in the first inning rather than any other inning.
The away team does not follow that pattern.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:59:14 PM
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probably because it is the top of the order?
(and possibly more energized at the start of the game)
for the away team the first is the third most likely, but only by a very slim margin.
interesting article...home field advantage
(and possibly more energized at the start of the game)
for the away team the first is the third most likely, but only by a very slim margin.
interesting article...home field advantage
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:46:36 PM
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Quote: WongBolook at how much more likely the away team is to score in the ninth!
this is more statistically significant than the other innings
that is a more interesting phenomena IMO.
I think this is due to the fact that the home team does not go to bat when leading after the top of the ninth.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:48:03 PM
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Quote: LucyjrI think this is due to the fact that the home team does not go to bat when leading after the top of the ninth.
of course, duh! thanks.
i really should think BEFORE i post...
i think i got thrown off because of the 10+ line.
i was thinking of games with extra innings
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
April 14th, 2012 at 5:19:20 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleThe home team is most likely to score in the first inning rather than any other inning.
The away team does not follow that pattern.
It is normal to put the better hitters early in the batting order, in the expectation they will bat more often. There is also a hit shortage in the second inning, when the weaker hitters are coming up in the batting order. However, why does this seem more apparent for the home team than the away team? I don't know.
This is just a theory but perhaps the home team is not just looking to win the game, but put on a good show for the crowd. They start out with a big bang, which is good to energize the crowd, and then they hopefully are ahead more of the game, which should also keep the audience in the game. But why wouldn't that be good for the away team too? Perhaps it also a legitimate strategy to space out the good hitters, although you don't get as much of the "big bang" effect.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 14th, 2012 at 7:27:38 AM
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Teams don't change their batting order based on whether or not they are home or away. And you'd think trying to start the game off in the top of the 1st with a run to take the home crowd "out of the game" would be as important as the home team trying to keep the crowd in the game.
Oh well, guess this one is going to have to be unexplainable.
Oh well, guess this one is going to have to be unexplainable.
April 14th, 2012 at 7:43:39 AM
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Here is the number of runs in the first inning from 2001 to 2011:
The standard deviation of the average is 0.0062 on the away team, and 0.0068 on the home team. The perceived shortage of first inning runs by the away team is about 0.005, just eyeballing the graph. So I submit for the consideration of the forum that it is just random variation at play.
| Runs in First Inning | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19081 | 18124 |
| 1 | 4219 | 4477 |
| 2 | 2021 | 2323 |
| 3 | 932 | 1144 |
| 4 | 407 | 510 |
| 5 | 184 | 206 |
| 6 | 59 | 97 |
| 7 | 12 | 21 |
| 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 26926 | 26926 |
The standard deviation of the average is 0.0062 on the away team, and 0.0068 on the home team. The perceived shortage of first inning runs by the away team is about 0.005, just eyeballing the graph. So I submit for the consideration of the forum that it is just random variation at play.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 14th, 2012 at 7:54:24 AM
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The home team generally scores more runs in the first inning because their advantage and knowledge of the ball park conditions is a general advantage to them. As well, the visiting pitcher is more predictable as he is not used to the mound and the pitching conditions and is subject to throwing his most familiar pitches first to get used to the conditions, which is scoutable. That pitch is usually a fastball. And of course there is the crowd.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 14th, 2012 at 8:24:33 AM
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Quote: WizardSo I submit for the consideration of the forum that it is just random variation at play.
There could be something else at work here. The visitors in the top of the 1st may be more likely to use one-run strategies (e.g. stolen bases, sac hits) to get a lead. It doesn't exactly work (the home team still scores more often in the 1st), but the home team's lead in multiple-run innings and total runs scored is much bigger than their edge in single runs.
April 14th, 2012 at 8:48:30 AM
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The home team is more likely to be favored to win, so it makes sense that they would score more runs in the first inning.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
April 14th, 2012 at 4:09:23 PM
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Quote: DanMahownyThe home team is more likely to be favored to win, so it makes sense that they would score more runs in the first inning.
That isn't the issue.
However, I asked my buddy Jason, who was the guest on my Feb 2 radio show about the topic at hand he said the following.
Quote: JasonTo me logical thinking would have both teams just about exactly even in scoring for the first and second innings. My best guess as to why the home team has an edge would be ballpark conditions. Just being familier with sun angles and lighting could have an affect. Also, it may take a visiting pitcher a bit longer to get used to pitching mound conditions. Lots of pitchers are very picky about the surface when pitching and it would take visiting pitchers longer to adjust. That being said I never expected such a difference in those stats. Very interesting.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 14th, 2012 at 4:42:23 PM
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the home team is favored in virtually EVERY stat.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
April 14th, 2012 at 4:57:13 PM
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I went to sleep a little early today. The Rays were up 4 zip (first inning) over Boston. Hellickson had been almost unhittable in his first start. Bucholtz has been terrible to this point with a ERA over 17. Woke up to the final Boston 13 - 5 WTF???
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
