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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 26th, 2022 at 1:26:42 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Both for 2.5 units:
Giants +10.5 @ $1.93
Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90

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Comments:
According to ESPN, a lot of starters' are out for the Giants, but I still think 10 pts is too much.
I will post the previous weeks' results later.
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I never saw it at +10.5. Just once at +10 and I pounced on it. And got very lucky…
I’m in on the Vikes with you….
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I have Covid, and was too sick*** to write anything earlier^^^, but I had 3 units on the Jets -6.0 @ $1.90 (I think they should be -8)

***: Because of this, there won't be any College "graded bets" this week.
^^^: I had the bet about 13 hours ago.

Note: I still haven't posted last weeks' results (almost certain that all bets lost, last week) but I will try to do it soon (hopefully today or tomorrow).

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Other:
We were very lucky to beat the spread in "Garbage Time" (for the Giants' game).

Also, I am leaning towards the Steelers', but I only have them as a solid "x x " at the moment.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 26th, 2022 at 3:23:59 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
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(snip)
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(snip) I am leaning towards the Steelers', but I only have them as a solid "x x " at the moment.
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I am not on these spreads (at this time) but below are the "minimum^^^ price points " for other games that are close to "x x x " IMO:

^^^: In other words, "need this or better" to make them "x x x".

Steelers': +2.5 @ +100 / or +3 @ -115.
Cardinals': +2.5 @ -105 / or +3 @ -120.
Saints': +9.5*** @ -110.

***: Though I did have 3 units on the Saint's +6.0 @ $1.90 (about -111) on the "first half spread" (so, obviously this one will count as part of my "graded bets" ).

Note 1a): These will almost automatically become "x x x", if the spread moves to the ones listed above (or better)
Note 1b): With the exception of any key player(s) being out, that were expected to play (between now, and game time).

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Update (about 1540, Pac Time):
I would have had 3^^^ units on the Chiefs' -15.5 @ $1.90 / or -14.5 @ $1.85 but I had a ML bet on them instead (to test out my "bonus theory").

^^^: This is not my "real bet", but I will count this as part of my "graded bets " (even though my real bet was a ML one on the Chiefs').

Note: See "part written about the Chiefs' " in the link here
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 26, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 27th, 2022 at 11:41:42 AM permalink
Reminder (as alluded to by the end of my previous post): I " had^^^ " 3 units on the Chiefs -14.5 @ $1.85.

^^^: Artificial / not my real bet (didn't actually have it because I don't want to load up "too much money", on the same team in one game).

Note : The estimated RTP was about 1/1000 to 1/500 better than -15.5 @ $1.90, but both are still "x x x ".

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Update (~1255. Pac Time):
I just had 2.7 units on the Cards' +2.5 @ $2.00
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 27th, 2022 at 5:19:23 PM permalink
Covid and bad "short term memory" don't mix, I forgot I only managed to get one bet on last week (as I was on break).

Because there was only one "graded bet" last week, I will add it on to this weeks' results' total.

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Other / Comments:
So far the ATS wins for me have been close this week.
IMO, the Rams went "well for such a depleted team " (I kind of expected the Chiefs' to get at least 30 pts).
Glad the Chargers' went for 2 on their last scoring play of the game (because whether is was successful or not, it was great for my bet on that game).
Didn't get to watch the game, but just going by the stats^^^ I may have to consider the 49ers' as the "best team that currently has a 7-4 record ".

^^^: They are keeping teams on average to less than 16 pts per game (but I haven't looked at the records / quality of the teams they are doing that to, yet).

Because the game is about to start, this will not be counted as part of the official "graded bets". But I think the Eagles should be -7.5 / or about "x grade", so I had 2 units### on them @ -6.5.

###: I may go back to a modified "x ", "x x " and " x x x", betting system/ strategy, after this week.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2022
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 27th, 2022 at 7:03:46 PM permalink
Looking forward to your college picks this week. I really think I picked under 40% last two weeks on ‘even chance’ picks. I really don’t just want to fade what I actually think…. but maybe it’s a good strategy….
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 27th, 2022 at 7:53:03 PM permalink
Update:

Compared to a "healthy Rodgers^^^ ", I have J Love about 6.5 pts*** worse ( "full game spread ").

^^^: Rodgers' "questionable to return" near the end of the third quarter.

***: When compared to my original estimate of -7.5 pts for the Eagles (so very roughly the spread should be Eagles -3 to -4, for the 4th quarter).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 27th, 2022 at 9:55:05 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Update:

Compared to a "healthy Rodgers^^^ ", I have J Love about 6.5 pts*** worse ( "full game spread ").

^^^: Rodgers' "questionable to return" near the end of the third quarter.

***: When compared to my original estimate of -7.5 pts for the Eagles (so very roughly the spread should be Eagles -3 to -4, for the 4th quarter).
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I know he was only in for final quarter, but a seemingly great game for J Love.

If he can get an average "whole game passer rating" of about 65% of the figure in that quarter, then I think his value should be greater, when compared to a " current season healthy Rodgers".
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 28th, 2022 at 4:29:56 PM permalink
Couldn't get 2.7 units @ "evens", so I only had 2 units on the Steelers' +2.5 @ 1.95 (so the equiv. of an "x x " ).

Reminder: I am going to start betting the way I did earlier in the season, because I was missing out on a lot of +EV, by "scraping the x and x x bets ".

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Early bet for next week: I had 2 units on the Seahawks' -12.5 @ $2.60 (... equiv. of an "x x x ").

Note: I think the "50/50" line for the 'hawks' should be -10
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 28th, 2022 at 4:47:18 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Looking forward to your college picks this week. (snip).
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I find the near college playoffs to early playoffs periods a lot harder than the same periods for the NFL, but I will at least "list some picks" whether I find any "really good value ones " / " x x x ones" or not.

1st pick (Week 14: I like TCU -1.5 @ -115 early, but I haven't graded that one yet (in other words that is a "very subjective one")

I had a $200 "interest bet" on them @ $1.87

2nd pick (Week 14: I like Akron +11.5 @ -110 early, but I haven't graded that one yet either (... "very subjective one").

I had a $200 "interest bet" on them @ $1.90

Reminder: These are just picks, so the above bets won't count as part of the "graded bets results".
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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November 28th, 2022 at 4:58:20 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj



2nd pick (Week 14: I like Akron +11.5 @ -110 early, but I haven't graded that one yet either (... "very subjective one").



You are going to eventually learn your lesson. I have never won a bet on the Zips.
Order from chaos

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