NCAAF & NFL Grades / Results, etc

Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

2nd pick (Week 14: I like Akron +11.5 @ -110 early, but I haven't graded that one yet either (... "very subjective one").

You are going to eventually learn your lesson. I have never won a bet on the Zips.
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Lol, and they will probably "just beat the first half spread" and go on to "lose against the full game spread" (basically a "reverse of what happened last time I bet on them").

Quote: ksdjdj

Couldn't get 2.7 units @ "evens", so I only had 2 units on the Steelers' +2.5 @ 1.95 (so the equiv. of an "x x " ).
(snip)
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Half-time comments/bets:
Colts should be better than that in the 2nd half (because it is pretty hard to be any worse) so I had a 1 unit bet on them +7.5 @ 1.90.

NCAAF:
See post "November 15th, 2022 at 3:05:04 PM"
2.7 units on BALL STATE CARDINALS+3.5 @ $1.90, lost 2.7 units (only one bet, so didn't bother putting in a table).

NFL:

Week	Bet / Option	Unit Won / Lost
11	2.7 units on the Cardinals +10 @ $1.90	-2.700
12	Both for 2.5 units: Giants +10.5 @ 1.93	2.325
--------	and Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90	2.250
--------	3 units on the Jets -6.0 @ $1.90	2.700
--------	3 units on the Saint's +6.0 @ $1.90, "first half spread"	-3.000
--------	3 units on the Chiefs -14.5 @ $1.85	2.55
--------	2.7 units on the Cards' +2.5 @ $2.00	2.700
12	2 units on the Steelers' +2.5 @ 1.95	1.900
	Total For Period	8.725

Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 217.355
Profit: 11.586
"Profit on Turnover": 5.33...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 94.36
Profit: 11.123
"Profit on Turnover": 11.78...%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 311.715
Profit: 22.709
"Profit on Turnover": 7.28...%

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"Graded bet to real bet" adjustments :
In "real money terms", I won a little bit more (+0.15 units) than what it says in the above "official results" (see below):

+0.90 units on a "Colts live bet" - week 12 (main reason not included in results: 2nd half had just started by the time I had finished writing the post).

+1.80 units on the Eagles - week 12 (main reason not included: game started or was just about to start before I finished typing post).

-2.55 units on the Chiefs - week 12 (was included in the above results, but was a "simulated/ artificial bet", because even though I thought it was "x x x grade" I didn't actually have it, as " I didn't want to load up "too much money", on the same team in one game ").

College football bets:

"x x x grade": I had 3.3 units Utah Utes +3.5 @ $1.83

Alternative bet: 3 units, +3.0 @ -110 / ~$1.91 is "almost as good" (if you can't get the above odds, or better).

Note: According to V I, you can currently get +3.5 @ -114 with at least one of the 'books..


"x x grade ": I had 2.2 units Michigan Wolverines -15.5 @ $1.84

Alternative bet: 2 units, -16.5 @ -110 / ~$1.91 is "almost as good" (if you can't get the above odds, or better).

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Update (~0205, Pac Time):

NFL:
"x x grade": 2 units on the Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.90

"x x x grade": 2 units on the Seahawks' -12.5 @ $2.60

Note: I copied the above Seahawks' bet from an earlier post, so that it is easier for me to find (in other words, I only had the above bet once),

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Extra:
Unless I see some "ridiculous line movements", I don't think there will be any more NFL or College bets for me this week (at least ATS).

LSU game: 3.2 units on Over 50.5 @ $1.85***

Alt Bet: 3 units Over 51 @ -110

3.2 units on the Titans +5.5 @ $1.85 ***

Alt Bet: 3 units +5.0 @ -110

***: These are the bets that I had (both "x x x ").

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Other:
If I had waited about 8 hours, the Dolphins bet would be " x x x " , because you can now get better odds on them.

Managed to find a new book with some "good alternative lines" (so I had the bet below):

1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400

Also, I think they should be +2.5 as the "50/50" line, so +3.5 @ -110 or better is also "x x x".

Quote: ksdjdj

Managed to find a new book with some "good alternative lines" (so I had the bet below):

1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400

Also, I think they should be +2.5 as the "50/50" line, so +3.5 @ -110 or better is also "x x x".
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Not sure if the lines have moved since your post, but I can get get Bills +5.5 at -335. Obviously if you can get Pats -5.5 at +400 you can make $$$ depending on the limits your books allow.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Managed to find a new book with some "good alternative lines" (so I had the bet below):

1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400

Also, I think they should be +2.5 as the "50/50" line, so +3.5 @ -110 or better is also "x x x".
link to original post

Not sure if the lines have moved since your post, but I can get get Bills +5.5 at -335. Obviously if you can get Pats -5.5 at +400 you can make $$$ depending on the limits your books allow.
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For the lines mentioned above the Pats' are still +390, and the Bills' are about -555 ($1.18).

Also, at the time of this post, they only have an "implied bookmakers' %" of about "100 and 1/16%" *** in their "50/50" (Bills -3.5 / Pats' +3.5) market (most likely human error?).

***: They have the Bills' $1.95, and the Pats' $2.05.

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Additional bet(s):

Had 0.2 units on the Dolphins -5.5 @ +400 (an "x x x" one that is almost as good as the Pats' one IMO, but I already had a "standard style" bet on the Dolphins, earlier).

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Edit (1630, Pac Time):

Some minor changes to the wording, to correct the "... bookmakers' % figure".

Half Time: Welp, being down a TD would have been nice.

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Comments:
If the Bills were behind by a td or so at half time, then I would likely bet on the over “live total”.

Comments:
NFL:
"Glad" I was wrong by "so much" in the Pats' game, because I "save" 1.5 units since the Bills' beat the spread easily.

NCAAF:
I wasn't watching the game because I was at work, but at least I know part of the reason for the big turn-around after USC were up by 14 early in the Utah game (see link below)

If you also didn't get to watch the game, pretty much read from this point in the article >>>> "After pulling off a miraculous 59-yard run that had him gasping for air and walking gingerly, Williams never quite looked the same..." <<<< to the end.