Sports betting chatter
I don't think this is correct. Kashi has huge volume on money lines, not so much on other markets. The prices are reacting sometimes a split second before the books. It is unreal how fast it is, oftentimes less that half a second after the live event. I don't know how all that works but it has to just be automation and the market makers on Kalshi have to be getting league data scoring that the books are getting. I highly doubt the big players are arbing off on sportsbooks. Sportsbooks are a joke compared to what Kalshi and Polymarket are setting up. Even Novig and Prophetx are a joke. Yes there are a few minor arbing opportunities but nothing big, at least that I've found. It could be useful hedging on Kalshi if you have some promo or something on a book that you need to get volume on. Basically I only see books as useful for picking off bad line (which they'll eventually limit you to nothing) and promos.Quote: ChallengedMillyFinally found an analytic tool for polymarket and kalshi and as I suspected but hadn't confirmed, it appears the top sports betting accounts are just arbitraged accounts against other real life and online sports books.
Theres a small chance there's a few sharps in the crowd but determining them even when looking at win-rate is gonna be difficult. I will say this, there are dozens of accounts with 1000+ bets that are 55%+ consistently in the green, so there still may be some money to be made, but at the moment I'm gonna be patient.
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Indiana +7.5 at +138. Fair around -103.
Virginia ML at +244. Fair around +182.
I already had bet against Virginia in a different parlay. I haven’t figured out who I’m rooting for yet….
I admittedly did have a tiny glimmer of hope that some sharp cracked the code to winning 55-50%+ of all bets per month/year and were forced to show their wins due to the way polymarket works. This does not appear to be true.
As an aside, I'll be going in person to do some Superbowl bets next week, anyone have some fun statistical it-could-happen-! 3+ leg parlays that I should gamble on? I did poorly last Superbowl due to betting on Kelce to do just about anything more than he did do. Also, is this finally a year where a non-QB/WR might get MVP or am I getting my hopes up again for nothing?
Men's Ice Hockey (Canada favored at +140; USA is +180)
Women's Ice Hockey (USA favored at -160; Canada is +140)
Men's Curling (Great Britain favored at +100; Canada is +220, and USA is +10,000)
Women's Curling (Canada favored at -200; USA is +10,000)
What, no mixed curling, or team figure skating, or even mixed snowcross relay?
Quote: ThatDonGuyWent to South Point to see if they had more Super B-er, "NFL Championship" props than the one-pager they have online. They didn't, but mixed in among a few sheets from weeks ago (not only are there still NFL Week 18 sheets, but college football conference championship week as well), were some Olympics bets. The only four they have are:
Men's Ice Hockey (Canada favored at +140; USA is +180)
Women's Ice Hockey (USA favored at -160; Canada is +140)
Men's Curling (Great Britain favored at +100; Canada is +220, and USA is +10,000)
Women's Curling (Canada favored at -200; USA is +10,000)
What, no mixed curling, or team figure skating, or even mixed snowcross relay?
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I might have to put a $1 on U.S. men's curling at 100-1 odds. Curling is one of the few events I watch.
Quote: DRichQuote: ThatDonGuyWent to South Point to see if they had more Super B-er, "NFL Championship" props than the one-pager they have online. They didn't, but mixed in among a few sheets from weeks ago (not only are there still NFL Week 18 sheets, but college football conference championship week as well), were some Olympics bets. The only four they have are:
Men's Ice Hockey (Canada favored at +140; USA is +180)
Women's Ice Hockey (USA favored at -160; Canada is +140)
Men's Curling (Great Britain favored at +100; Canada is +220, and USA is +10,000)
Women's Curling (Canada favored at -200; USA is +10,000)
What, no mixed curling, or team figure skating, or even mixed snowcross relay?
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I might have to put a $1 on U.S. men's curling at 100-1 odds. Curling is one of the few events I watch.
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Me too! That's my favorite event in the Winter Olympics.
I like the "knock" games where you are moving pieces around on the board with other pieces, and a dice game where you can throw a die and change another die that has already been thrown I'd like to create. Like dice curling?
not a good sign
definitely going to be doing some cashing out [and goodbye] after super bowl ... gotta wait and see til then
Quote: odiousgambitjust had one of my reliable sites have an offer that appears, then disappears on signing in
not a good sign
definitely going to be doing some cashing out [and goodbye] after super bowl ... gotta wait and see til then
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Who knows why they do what they do? I’ve had 5-10 markedly +EV bet offers daily now for a bit.
Two today so far.
Blackhawks ML at +199. (Fair is +140)
Michigan St at +154. (Fair is +105).
Usually right before 7pm another couple appear.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitjust had one of my reliable sites have an offer that appears, then disappears on signing in
not a good sign
definitely going to be doing some cashing out [and goodbye] after super bowl ... gotta wait and see til then
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Who knows why they do what they do? I’ve had 5-10 markedly +EV bet offers daily now for a bit.
Two today so far.
Blackhawks ML at +199. (Fair is +140)
Michigan St at +154. (Fair is +105).
Usually right before 7pm another couple appear.
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It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
Soopoo is the master of online sports bettingQuote: DRich
It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
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He goes at them with psychological warfare and he has manipulation secrets
One thing he does [I'm theorizing here] is keep up the size of his action ... I tend to let it fall off
Quote: SOOPOO
Who knows why they do what they do? I’ve had 5-10 markedly +EV bet offers daily now for a bit.
Two today so far.
Blackhawks ML at +199. (Fair is +140)
Michigan St at +154. (Fair is +105).
Usually right before 7pm another couple appear.
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just out of curiosity - if you don't mind my asking -
do they limit your action (how much you can bet) on these + ev deals?
and are the + ev deals always on the underdog?
doesn't that mean that a bet on the fave must offer odds that are less than fair?
.
Quote: odiousgambitSoopoo is the master of online sports bettingQuote: DRich
It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
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He goes at them with psychological warfare and he has manipulation secrets
One thing he does [I'm theorizing here] is keep up the size of his action ... I tend to let it fall off
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I am the master of enjoying it. I can assure you there are others FAR BETTER at it than I am!
I was about to post my best recent bet. I had a small golf profit boost, I’m sure not enough to make the bet +EV. So I took a stab on Justin Rose at 45-1. Maximum bet allowed $250. He’s leading at halfway point, maybe enough to be greater than 50% chance to win.
My $1 bet may win $45…..
I do have a decent parlay last leg is Arsenal to win today. (I lose if a draw). First two legs were slight underdogs so boosted this is ‘a lot’ for me.
limiting your action is part of the deal, even if it is a lousy deal like a 20% boost on a 4 leg same game parlay... they worryQuote: lilredrooster
just out of curiosity - if you don't mind my asking -
do they limit your action (how much you can bet) on these + ev deals?
you can bet either side almost always, though often the boosts are for same game parlays. The ones that are for a single bet are sweet!Quote:and are the + ev deals always on the underdog?
You can check with other sites to see if that game is being played.Quote:doesn't that mean that a bet on the fave must offer odds that are less than fair?
.
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congratulations it looks like you won your bet. Justin rose finished -21 from what I seenQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitSoopoo is the master of online sports bettingQuote: DRich
It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
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He goes at them with psychological warfare and he has manipulation secrets
One thing he does [I'm theorizing here] is keep up the size of his action ... I tend to let it fall off
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I am the master of enjoying it. I can assure you there are others FAR BETTER at it than I am!
I was about to post my best recent bet. I had a small golf profit boost, I’m sure not enough to make the bet +EV. So I took a stab on Justin Rose at 45-1. Maximum bet allowed $250. He’s leading at halfway point, maybe enough to be greater than 50% chance to win.
My $1 bet may win $45…..
I do have a decent parlay last leg is Arsenal to win today. (I lose if a draw). First two legs were slight underdogs so boosted this is ‘a lot’ for me.
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Quote: avianrandycongratulations it looks like you won your bet. Justin rose finished -21 from what I seenQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitSoopoo is the master of online sports bettingQuote: DRich
It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
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He goes at them with psychological warfare and he has manipulation secrets
One thing he does [I'm theorizing here] is keep up the size of his action ... I tend to let it fall off
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I am the master of enjoying it. I can assure you there are others FAR BETTER at it than I am!
I was about to post my best recent bet. I had a small golf profit boost, I’m sure not enough to make the bet +EV. So I took a stab on Justin Rose at 45-1. Maximum bet allowed $250. He’s leading at halfway point, maybe enough to be greater than 50% chance to win.
My $1 bet may win $45…..
I do have a decent parlay last leg is Arsenal to win today. (I lose if a draw). First two legs were slight underdogs so boosted this is ‘a lot’ for me.
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Tourney not over yet. But I could cash out for $38. I’m going for the whole $45.
Bad day overall yesterday. Maybe 10 of those +EV bets, but only 2 won. You can’t eat EV. You can’t spend EV.
At least the Arsenal win helped mitigate overall losses.
Can anyone give me an idea how much betting one has to do to get three ringside seats?
Quote: billryanMGM is running an online ad that opens with three friends getting ringside seats for a big fight in Vegas.
Can anyone give me an idea how much betting one has to do to get three ringside seats?
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It is generally not a fixed amount. What each casino does is buy x tickets and offer them to their top players to come into town. They generally just go down the line offering them to their top players until the tickets are gone. To pretty much guarantee getting one, be the top player in the casino.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanMGM is running an online ad that opens with three friends getting ringside seats for a big fight in Vegas.
Can anyone give me an idea how much betting one has to do to get three ringside seats?
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It is generally not a fixed amount. What each casino does is buy x tickets and offer them to their top players to come into town. They generally just go down the line offering them to their top players until the tickets are gone. To pretty much guarantee getting one, be the top player in the casino.
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Is it safe to say that three casual bettors won't end up with ringside comps?
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanMGM is running an online ad that opens with three friends getting ringside seats for a big fight in Vegas.
Can anyone give me an idea how much betting one has to do to get three ringside seats?
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It is generally not a fixed amount. What each casino does is buy x tickets and offer them to their top players to come into town. They generally just go down the line offering them to their top players until the tickets are gone. To pretty much guarantee getting one, be the top player in the casino.
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Is it safe to say that three casual bettors won't end up with ringside comps?
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Correct. To ‘qualify’ for such seats you’d (guess) have to make 10’s of thousands of $$ in -EV bets per day.
Occasionally they have a drawing for such that a guppy like me could win a seat.
Yesterday 3 +EV bets. Two of 3 hit. Florida BBall -12.5 at around + 200. Won by like 40.
Illinois to win at +160. (Was a ‘pick’em’ game). Easy win.
Lightning -1.5 at +180. They were down 5-1…. Tied it and won 6-5 in a shootout. Oh well.
UNC -15.5 at +258. Fair is +148
Kansas ML at +244. Fair is +195
Penguins ML at +154. Fair is +110
Panthers -1.5 at + 264. Fair is +228
These next two I had to make some assumptions to get the ‘Fair’ line.
Darnold over 2.5 passing TD at +388. Fair is +325
Maye over 274.5 passing yds at +368. Fair is +310
I’m trusting the process! I really only like the Penguins bet.
sports betting and sports itself is being corrupted - the fix is in -
from the link:
"Last month, the prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging Fairley with bribery and wire fraud and accusing him of coordinating one of the biggest match-fixing networks in American history. And that was just one of the sports betting corruption sagas in which Fairley plays a central role.
Fairley, 40, is accused of paying for inside information that NBA player Terry Rozier would intentionally underperform. He was named among the gamblers who allegedly knew then-NBA player Jontay Porter would take himself out of a game to satisfy bets. And he made bets, prosecutors say, based on information furnished by Portland Trail Blazers Coach Chauncey Billups and Los Angeles Lakers assistant Damon Jones
But the most sweeping allegations focus on Fairley’s college basketball bets. Prosecutors say he was at the center of an international match-fixing ring that rigged dozens of NCAA men’s games, enlisting recruiters with deep ties to local basketball communities and targeting athletes who played on bad teams and didn’t earn much name, image and likeness (NIL) money.
Dozens of players have been implicated, and at least 20 face charges. From February 2024 to January 2025, the indictment alleges, Fairley and associates collectively wagered more than $3 million on at least 29 games involving those players.
The operation, as described in court records, offered players five-figure payments to manipulate their performances to satisfy bets Fairley placed through a national network of gamblers. As the integrity of major American sports comes under growing scrutiny amid the online betting boom, Fairley has emerged as one of the top beneficiaries of the alleged corruption."
https://archive.ph/WT9j5
.
Marves Fairley, who goes by Vezino Locks, also supplies gambling tips to customers who pay $60 a pop for his daily picks. He travels on a bus that has been custom fitted to have three stripper poles. Among many accusations he is accused of paying for inside information that NBA player Terry Rozier would intentionally underperform.Quote: lilredrooster.
sports betting and sports itself is being corrupted - the fix is in -
from the link:
"Last month, the prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging Fairley with bribery and wire fraud and accusing him of coordinating one of the biggest match-fixing networks in American history. And that was just one of the sports betting corruption sagas in which Fairley plays a central role.
Fairley, 40, is accused of paying for inside information that NBA player Terry Rozier would intentionally underperform. He was named among the gamblers who allegedly knew then-NBA player Jontay Porter would take himself out of a game to satisfy bets. And he made bets, prosecutors say, based on information furnished by Portland Trail Blazers Coach Chauncey Billups and Los Angeles Lakers assistant Damon Jones
But the most sweeping allegations focus on Fairley’s college basketball bets. Prosecutors say he was at the center of an international match-fixing ring that rigged dozens of NCAA men’s games, enlisting recruiters with deep ties to local basketball communities and targeting athletes who played on bad teams and didn’t earn much name, image and likeness (NIL) money.
Dozens of players have been implicated, and at least 20 face charges. From February 2024 to January 2025, the indictment alleges, Fairley and associates collectively wagered more than $3 million on at least 29 games involving those players.
The operation, as described in court records, offered players five-figure payments to manipulate their performances to satisfy bets Fairley placed through a national network of gamblers. As the integrity of major American sports comes under growing scrutiny amid the online betting boom, Fairley has emerged as one of the top beneficiaries of the alleged corruption."
https://archive.ph/WT9j5
.
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He has been targeting college basketball players on bad teams (with little NIL money) and pays $10,000 or more for them to underperform in a specific game. He would use inside information furnished by Portland Trail Blazers Coach Chauncey Billups and Los Angeles Lakers assistant Damon Jones. He was named among the gamblers who allegedly knew then-NBA player Jontay Porter would take himself out of a game to satisfy bets.
This guy belongs in the Hall of Fame, Ass-Wipe Division.
Perhaps someone can explain to me how allowing legal betting on these games improves our society.
Quote: billryanI, for one, am absolutely shocked that college athletes with no future in a sport would accept thousands of dollars to lose a game their team had little chance in.
Perhaps someone can explain to me how allowing legal betting on these games improves our society.
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That’s easy. I get LOTS of enjoyment from my legal sports betting accounts.
Yesterday great example. Had UNC -15.5. At +258. That’s quite nice odds. UNC goes up A LOT. I keep betting Syracuse. First at +16.5. Then + 17.5. Finally a bunch at +18.5. All those at around -115. I’m hoping for a lucky middle to win them all! But nope, UNC goes up 32 with around 8 minutes to go.
UNC coach puts the cheerleading squad in, Syracuse keeps its starters in, and Syracuse outscores UNC by 22 those last 8 minutes. So I ended up losing a little overall, as my hedge bets didn’t reach the initial bet. Even though I lost, experiencing that is fun for me.
And someone savvier than me must have made a boatload taking Syracuse after UNC emptied the bench.
Magic +10.5 at +120. Fair is -130. The ‘regular’ -110 spread is 8.5. So I’m getting two free points and +120. That’s some + EV
Lightning O 4.5. +271. Fair is +230. I can see an empty net goal putting that one over. But, just like yesterday, I have the Sabres and over in my 50% profit boost parlay. Many scenarios I lose both…..
Caps ML. +173. Fair is +129.
Nuggets ML +238. Fair is +180. I hate this one Nuggets still on a silly ‘minutes restriction’ for Jokic. Pistons at home and are second best team in the NBA. I do have Pistons in my profit boosted parlay, but still rooting for straight Nuggets win.
Miami (OH) -9.5 at +258. Fair is +240. So worth very little.
Got a bonus ‘free surprise drop’ today. Essentially it’s points that I can redeem for $25 free bet.
I need the $$ after stock market today…..
Quote: SOOPOO5 +EV bets today.
Magic +10.5 at +120. Fair is -130. The ‘regular’ -110 spread is 8.5. So I’m getting two free points and +120. That’s some + EV
Lightning O 4.5. +271. Fair is +230. I can see an empty net goal putting that one over. But, just like yesterday, I have the Sabres and over in my 50% profit boost parlay. Many scenarios I lose both…..
Caps ML. +173. Fair is +129.
Nuggets ML +238. Fair is +180. I hate this one Nuggets still on a silly ‘minutes restriction’ for Jokic. Pistons at home and are second best team in the NBA. I do have Pistons in my profit boosted parlay, but still rooting for straight Nuggets win.
Miami (OH) -9.5 at +258. Fair is +240. So worth very little.
Got a bonus ‘free surprise drop’ today. Essentially it’s points that I can redeem for $25 free bet.
I need the $$ after stock market today…..
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Ouch! 0-5.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryan
Perhaps someone can explain to me how allowing legal betting on these games improves our society.
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That’s easy. I get LOTS of enjoyment from my legal sports betting accounts.
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sorry, but you and others being entertained is a very small thing compared to the likelihood that entire sports programs will lose their reputations and be publicly humiliated as well as adversely affecting the entire college which is represented by the sports teams involved
many of the athletes who have succumbed to the temptation will likely be prosecuted and it's something that will adversely affect them throughout their entire lives
.
.Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO5 +EV bets today.
Magic +10.5 at +120. Fair is -130. The ‘regular’ -110 spread is 8.5. So I’m getting two free points and +120. That’s some + EV
Lightning O 4.5. +271. Fair is +230. I can see an empty net goal putting that one over. But, just like yesterday, I have the Sabres and over in my 50% profit boost parlay. Many scenarios I lose both…..
Caps ML. +173. Fair is +129.
Nuggets ML +238. Fair is +180. I hate this one Nuggets still on a silly ‘minutes restriction’ for Jokic. Pistons at home and are second best team in the NBA. I do have Pistons in my profit boosted parlay, but still rooting for straight Nuggets win.
Miami (OH) -9.5 at +258. Fair is +240. So worth very little.
Got a bonus ‘free surprise drop’ today. Essentially it’s points that I can redeem for $25 free bet.
I need the $$ after stock market today…..
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Ouch! 0-5.
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0-6. I also had Indiana over USC after I posted…. But hit the big NBA boosted parlay that started with the Pistons. So overall down for the night but just a little. The last leg of the parlay was Knicks over 228. When it was high scoring early I got a bunch of hedges in at under 235.5/ under 233.5…. Ended at 231 so main bet and hedges won.
Panthers O 3.5 goals at +154. Fair + 105
Canadians ML at +160. Fair +110
Twolves ML at +134. Fair is -105
UCF +10.5 at +290. Fair is +200
Nuggets ML at +258. Fair is +174.
I hate the Nuggets until Jokic is back to ‘unlimited’ and Aaron Gordon is back. I could take the Nuggets at + 258 and the Knicks at -190 elsewhere. To lock in some free $$. But I’m sticking with ‘the process’ and will watch my $50 disappear.
I’ll probably take the Knicks ML in my NBA boosted parlay. That strategy worked yesterday.
I ‘think’ I took advantage of a bad line yesterday. Sixers were 4.5 point underdogs to Warriors, which seemed to make sense, then while watching ESPN they announce Curry isn’t playing. Warriors without Butler and Curry would be called ‘a bad team’. So I made the (presumably -EV ) bet on 76ers + points. I checked a little later and that was still the spread! Anyway, 76ers killed them. Should have had some balls and bet ML.
Edit. Add Georgetown at +130. Fair is -120. I can get the opponent at +110.
Quote: SOOPOOToday 5 + EV offers so far
Panthers O 3.5 goals at +154. Fair + 105
Canadians ML at +160. Fair +110
Twolves ML at +134. Fair is -105
UCF +10.5 at +290. Fair is +200
Nuggets ML at +258. Fair is +174.
I am watching the UCF game, not looking good with 10 minutes left.
when you give the 'fair' odds, do you mean instead the 'original' or 'usual' as confirmed elsewhere ?Quote: SOOPOOToday 5 + EV offers so far
Panthers O 3.5 goals at +154. Fair + 105
Canadians ML at +160. Fair +110
Twolves ML at +134. Fair is -105
UCF +10.5 at +290. Fair is +200
Nuggets ML at +258. Fair is +174.
I hate the Nuggets until Jokic is back to ‘unlimited’ and Aaron Gordon is back. I could take the Nuggets at + 258 and the Knicks at -190 elsewhere. To lock in some free $$. But I’m sticking with ‘the process’ and will watch my $50 disappear.
I’ll probably take the Knicks ML in my NBA boosted parlay. That strategy worked yesterday.
I ‘think’ I took advantage of a bad line yesterday. Sixers were 4.5 point underdogs to Warriors, which seemed to make sense, then while watching ESPN they announce Curry isn’t playing. Warriors without Butler and Curry would be called ‘a bad team’. So I made the (presumably -EV ) bet on 76ers + points. I checked a little later and that was still the spread! Anyway, 76ers killed them. Should have had some balls and bet ML.
Edit. Add Georgetown at +130. Fair is -120. I can get the opponent at +110.
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Some of these seem suitable for setting up guaranteed wins. Are you doing that sometimes [or even frequently]?
Quote: odiousgambitwhen you give the 'fair' odds, do you mean instead the 'original' or 'usual' as confirmed elsewhere ?Quote: SOOPOOToday 5 + EV offers so far
Panthers O 3.5 goals at +154. Fair + 105
Canadians ML at +160. Fair +110
Twolves ML at +134. Fair is -105
UCF +10.5 at +290. Fair is +200
Nuggets ML at +258. Fair is +174.
I hate the Nuggets until Jokic is back to ‘unlimited’ and Aaron Gordon is back. I could take the Nuggets at + 258 and the Knicks at -190 elsewhere. To lock in some free $$. But I’m sticking with ‘the process’ and will watch my $50 disappear.
I’ll probably take the Knicks ML in my NBA boosted parlay. That strategy worked yesterday.
I ‘think’ I took advantage of a bad line yesterday. Sixers were 4.5 point underdogs to Warriors, which seemed to make sense, then while watching ESPN they announce Curry isn’t playing. Warriors without Butler and Curry would be called ‘a bad team’. So I made the (presumably -EV ) bet on 76ers + points. I checked a little later and that was still the spread! Anyway, 76ers killed them. Should have had some balls and bet ML.
Edit. Add Georgetown at +130. Fair is -120. I can get the opponent at +110.
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Some of these seem suitable for setting up guaranteed wins. Are you doing that sometimes [or even frequently]?
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“Fair” means the odds if their was NO Sportsbook vig. Easiest example is if a ML is -110 for both teams, I would report fair as +100. If team A is -220, and team B +180, is report fair as +/- 200.
On virtually every one of these I can find another Sportsbook so that I can guarantee a win. Since I’m in Florida I don’t have access to those other (NY) sportsbooks, so I haven’t been guaranteeing the free money. What I have been doing is (sometimes) hedging. Remember, every hedge is technically a -EV bet and thus will depress long term winnings. Last night was a great example. I had Nuggets at +264. In the 2nd quarter they were up 7, and the pointspread had them favored by 3.5. So I loaded up on the Knicks +3.5, guaranteeing a small win if the Knicks won, a very big win if the Nuggets won by 1-3, and a smaller than would have been win if the Nuggets won by 4 or more. It looked like Nuggets were about to win by 3, but Jokic shot hit the rim twice before just missing!
4 of 6 at these + odds is a lot of winnings, especially when one of my two ‘losers’ actually won me a dollar or two. I did drop a few dollars on hedging the Georgetown game, but just a few…
I also hit my 3 leg 50% boosted NCAAB parlay. So a really good night for me.
I tend to forget you only use the one online book while in FLQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitwhen you give the 'fair' odds, do you mean instead the 'original' or 'usual' as confirmed elsewhere ?Quote: SOOPOOToday 5 + EV offers so far
Panthers O 3.5 goals at +154. Fair + 105
Canadians ML at +160. Fair +110
Twolves ML at +134. Fair is -105
UCF +10.5 at +290. Fair is +200
Nuggets ML at +258. Fair is +174.
I hate the Nuggets until Jokic is back to ‘unlimited’ and Aaron Gordon is back. I could take the Nuggets at + 258 and the Knicks at -190 elsewhere. To lock in some free $$. But I’m sticking with ‘the process’ and will watch my $50 disappear.
I’ll probably take the Knicks ML in my NBA boosted parlay. That strategy worked yesterday.
I ‘think’ I took advantage of a bad line yesterday. Sixers were 4.5 point underdogs to Warriors, which seemed to make sense, then while watching ESPN they announce Curry isn’t playing. Warriors without Butler and Curry would be called ‘a bad team’. So I made the (presumably -EV ) bet on 76ers + points. I checked a little later and that was still the spread! Anyway, 76ers killed them. Should have had some balls and bet ML.
Edit. Add Georgetown at +130. Fair is -120. I can get the opponent at +110.
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Some of these seem suitable for setting up guaranteed wins. Are you doing that sometimes [or even frequently]?
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“Fair” means the odds if their was NO Sportsbook vig. Easiest example is if a ML is -110 for both teams, I would report fair as +100. If team A is -220, and team B +180, is report fair as +/- 200.
On virtually every one of these I can find another Sportsbook so that I can guarantee a win. Since I’m in Florida I don’t have access to those other (NY) sportsbooks, so I haven’t been guaranteeing the free money. What I have been doing is (sometimes) hedging. Remember, every hedge is technically a -EV bet and thus will depress long term winnings. Last night was a great example. I had Nuggets at +264. In the 2nd quarter they were up 7, and the pointspread had them favored by 3.5. So I loaded up on the Knicks +3.5, guaranteeing a small win if the Knicks won, a very big win if the Nuggets won by 1-3, and a smaller than would have been win if the Nuggets won by 4 or more. It looked like Nuggets were about to win by 3, but Jokic shot hit the rim twice before just missing!
4 of 6 at these + odds is a lot of winnings, especially when one of my two ‘losers’ actually won me a dollar or two. I did drop a few dollars on hedging the Georgetown game, but just a few…
I also hit my 3 leg 50% boosted NCAAB parlay. So a really good night for me.
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I'm surprised you go to the trouble of determining the fair odds
Quote: odiousgambitI tend to forget you only use the one online book while in FLQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitwhen you give the 'fair' odds, do you mean instead the 'original' or 'usual' as confirmed elsewhere ?Quote: SOOPOOToday 5 + EV offers so far
Panthers O 3.5 goals at +154. Fair + 105
Canadians ML at +160. Fair +110
Twolves ML at +134. Fair is -105
UCF +10.5 at +290. Fair is +200
Nuggets ML at +258. Fair is +174.
I hate the Nuggets until Jokic is back to ‘unlimited’ and Aaron Gordon is back. I could take the Nuggets at + 258 and the Knicks at -190 elsewhere. To lock in some free $$. But I’m sticking with ‘the process’ and will watch my $50 disappear.
I’ll probably take the Knicks ML in my NBA boosted parlay. That strategy worked yesterday.
I ‘think’ I took advantage of a bad line yesterday. Sixers were 4.5 point underdogs to Warriors, which seemed to make sense, then while watching ESPN they announce Curry isn’t playing. Warriors without Butler and Curry would be called ‘a bad team’. So I made the (presumably -EV ) bet on 76ers + points. I checked a little later and that was still the spread! Anyway, 76ers killed them. Should have had some balls and bet ML.
Edit. Add Georgetown at +130. Fair is -120. I can get the opponent at +110.
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Some of these seem suitable for setting up guaranteed wins. Are you doing that sometimes [or even frequently]?
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“Fair” means the odds if their was NO Sportsbook vig. Easiest example is if a ML is -110 for both teams, I would report fair as +100. If team A is -220, and team B +180, is report fair as +/- 200.
On virtually every one of these I can find another Sportsbook so that I can guarantee a win. Since I’m in Florida I don’t have access to those other (NY) sportsbooks, so I haven’t been guaranteeing the free money. What I have been doing is (sometimes) hedging. Remember, every hedge is technically a -EV bet and thus will depress long term winnings. Last night was a great example. I had Nuggets at +264. In the 2nd quarter they were up 7, and the pointspread had them favored by 3.5. So I loaded up on the Knicks +3.5, guaranteeing a small win if the Knicks won, a very big win if the Nuggets won by 1-3, and a smaller than would have been win if the Nuggets won by 4 or more. It looked like Nuggets were about to win by 3, but Jokic shot hit the rim twice before just missing!
4 of 6 at these + odds is a lot of winnings, especially when one of my two ‘losers’ actually won me a dollar or two. I did drop a few dollars on hedging the Georgetown game, but just a few…
I also hit my 3 leg 50% boosted NCAAB parlay. So a really good night for me.
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I'm surprised you go to the trouble of determining the fair odds
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It’s part of the fun for me. I made all 4 bet offers today before I even figured out what the fair odds were. I could easily tell they were all +EV
Here they are….
Panthers over 3.5 at + 290
Lightning -1.5 at +199
(Rooting hard for Lightning 6, Panthers 4).
Wembanyama over 24.5 at +199
James over 24.5 at +316
I don’t like these bets which are each more likely to lose than win! But if I was a ‘real AP’ I wouldn’t even think about it that way. Since the dollar amounts are a tiny portion of my ‘bankroll’, the ‘real AP’ would just think about the + EV.
I do justify my -EV hedge bets as possibly giving me longevity.
To get the best out of the offers you have to accept that you are going to be making bets that are more likely to lose than win, and thus subject to big long losing streaks .... yet can be some of the best +EV offers overall. I know you know that, but I thought I would add to your thoughts for the benefit of the roosterish types out thereQuote: SOOPOO
I don’t like these bets which are each more likely to lose than win! But if I was a ‘real AP’ I wouldn’t even think about it that way. Since the dollar amounts are a tiny portion of my ‘bankroll’, the ‘real AP’ would just think about the + EV.
I do justify my -EV hedge bets as possibly giving me longevity.
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Rhamondre Stevenson to have at least one rush of over 12.5 yards at +148. He has done that 10/14 games this year. II think this is a +EV bet.
Jaxon Smith Njigba to catch at least 10 passes at +420. He did that last week. And also last time he played the Patriots. I also think coaches rely more heavily on their stars than during the regular season. He had no 10 reception games this regular season. Likely a -EV bet.
Darnold O 5.5 rush yards/Henderson O 19.5 rush yards at +219, also free bet if it loses. I think in these big games QBs might risk a hit to run more than they would in a regular season game. I love Darnold over 5.5. I’ve lost these type bets on the minus yards from kneeldowns…
Henderson averaged 54 yards per game in the regular season, but has slumped to 19 ypg in the postseason. But he still got the ball 8 times a game. At 8 rushes his expected yards probably exceeds 30. I don’t understand the 19.5. Maybe someone ‘knows’ they will be using Stevenson more than usual?
Trevyon Henderson O 49.5 rushing yards at +615. Discussed earlier. I love it at +615. I think it’s +EV.
Drake Maye to pass for O 274.5 at +368. He did it 5/17 in regular season. Not sure if +EV due to Seattle defense being great.
Sam Darnold to throw for O 2.5 TD passes at +388. He did it last week, and also 3/17 times in the regular season. Probably slightly -EV though.
JSN to catch at least 5 yards in each quarter. +155. Probably -EV, discussed earlier.
This one I love. Boutte to catch 25 yards in each half. At +650. He did it last week. And two other times this season. Not sure what fair odds would be but +650 seems like +EV
Darnold 30 yards passing each quarter. +155. Probably -EV bet.
Maye, Stevenson, and Henderson all to rush for at least 40 yards. +1335. I generally don’t do these negatively correlated parlays but I liked +1335.
Kupp, Boutte, and Diggs all to receive for 40. +899. Probably -EV. Boutte/Diggs negatively correlated as well.
More to come.
Kindle version currently $9.99
Physical book $29.95 at https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop/product-category/gambling-how-to/race-and-sports-betting
or $39.99 at Amazon.
[
I went to sleep thinking one of my 3 leg parlays lost. But checked this morning and it won! Butttt….. it lost…. The leg that lost was an over assists. I re-checked NBA.com. It lost.
I am expecting them to correct it. But I assume I have no legal responsibility to alert them to this mistake? I don’t think there is another more official source they use for assists?
Winning boosts were UNC over Duke at+277
Lakers ML at +134. (Lakers were favorites!)
Florida -9.5 at +199
the traditional sportsbooks are trying to get Kalshi out of the sports betting business
Kalshi, as I indicated earlier offers better payouts on many winning bets than do traditional sportsbooks
I believe they average paying out about 6% more on winning bets than sportsbooks
they also do less limiting of winning players than traditional sportsbooks
"AI Overview
Traditional sportsbooks like
DraftKings and FanDuel, along with state regulators, are taking aggressive steps to curb the rise of Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market that has expanded into sports betting, acting as an existential threat to their business models. The core conflict centers on Kalshi operating under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, allowing it to offer "event contracts" in states where traditional, state-licensed sports betting is prohibited.
The Threat: Kalshi's volume for the 2026 Super Bowl was massive, with reports indicating it processed hundreds of millions in volume. This direct competition has led to a drop in gambling stocks.
Aggressive Marketing & Growth: Despite the legal pressure, Kalshi continues to grow,
While Kalshi has seen some success in court by highlighting its federal regulation, the legal battles with state authorities continue to mount, making it a high-stakes, ongoing conflict for the future of U.S. sports betting. "
Why Kalshi is Winning (For Now)Despite the intense pressure, Kalshi has continued to win major legal battles, largely because the CFTC has signaled support for their "responsible development" as a regulated market. As of early 2026, Kalshi is still operating in most of the country, with users flocking to the platform for the 2026 Super Bowl"
.
after looking into it further I have realized that Kalshi does not "average" a better deal than sportsbooks because they have fees that they charge separately on many of their bets
every bet has to be compared to a sportsbooks bet to find a better deal -
sorry about the inaccurate info on my earlier post
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Yesterday afternoon, I went to the shop where I'd sold the stash and was greeted by a sign saying they weren't buying any silver or gold for the immediate future. The shop was empty, and the guy at the counter was pretty friendly last time so I went in. He said they had stock they'd paid melt price for, but now melt was 20% lower, and they could lose a lot of money or wait and see if it went back up. I asked if that happened very often, and he told me that in forty years, it had never been like this.
Quote: billryanAs I mentioned, I'd sold almost the last of my silver last week, the day before it crashed....
Good God, how much did you sell?
Next up are my baseball cards. I have a man coming down from Tempe next week.
you would think that athletes conspiring with gamblers would likely mostly be limited to college kids
but 2 major leaguers have been indicted -
Emmanuel Clase who has a 5 year $20 million contract and and Luis Ortiz who made $782,625 in 2025
a couple of fools imo
"AI Overview
In November 2025, Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were indicted on federal charges of conspiracy, wire fraud, and bribery for rigging individual pitches to benefit gamblers. They allegedly took bribes to throw specific balls or alter pitch speeds in dozens of games, winning over $400,000.
Here are the key details of the case:
Key Facts of the Scandal
Accused Players: All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase and pitcher Luis Ortiz, both of the Cleveland Guardians.
The Scheme: The players allegedly accepted bribes to throw specific types of pitches (e.g., balls, specific speeds) so accomplices could win "prop bets" on those moments.
Scope: According to federal prosecutors and court filings, the rigging occurred in at least 48 games over a two-year period (2023–2025).
Charges: The indictment includes wire fraud conspiracy, bribery, and money laundering.
Evidence: Allegations include text messages from Clase to friends notifying them of planned pitches, and instances where Clase allegedly bet on his own performances.
This case represents a major modern scandal involving direct on-field manipulation for betting purposes. "
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