Sports betting chatter

I don't want to have a 55% winning rate on -200 bets myself. Just a caution

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Finally found an analytic tool for polymarket and kalshi and as I suspected but hadn't confirmed, it appears the top sports betting accounts are just arbitraged accounts against other real life and online sports books.

Theres a small chance there's a few sharps in the crowd but determining them even when looking at win-rate is gonna be difficult. I will say this, there are dozens of accounts with 1000+ bets that are 55%+ consistently in the green, so there still may be some money to be made, but at the moment I'm gonna be patient.
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I don't think this is correct. Kashi has huge volume on money lines, not so much on other markets. The prices are reacting sometimes a split second before the books. It is unreal how fast it is, oftentimes less that half a second after the live event. I don't know how all that works but it has to just be automation and the market makers on Kalshi have to be getting league data scoring that the books are getting. I highly doubt the big players are arbing off on sportsbooks. Sportsbooks are a joke compared to what Kalshi and Polymarket are setting up. Even Novig and Prophetx are a joke. Yes there are a few minor arbing opportunities but nothing big, at least that I've found. It could be useful hedging on Kalshi if you have some promo or something on a book that you need to get volume on. Basically I only see books as useful for picking off bad line (which they'll eventually limit you to nothing) and promos.

The two +EV bets today so far…..

Indiana +7.5 at +138. Fair around -103.

Virginia ML at +244. Fair around +182.

I already had bet against Virginia in a different parlay. I haven’t figured out who I’m rooting for yet….

I'm in a double-elimination playoff pool in my park. Out of 34 contestants, 23 were eliminated over the weekend. I went 5-1, and only two people went 6-0. I don't think there is any strategy, as you have to pick every game. The winner takes the whole $102.

Sandybestdog I did more investigation and they're just arbitrage bots and margin bots. Likely 1 or more international groups where earning small amounts of money every day over time is worth it for the amount of hassle it takes to stay ahead of other bots copying your trades or anticipating your trades. Sane normies aren't putting $500,000 BTC/USD down on some random college football game without some major hedge.

I admittedly did have a tiny glimmer of hope that some sharp cracked the code to winning 55-50%+ of all bets per month/year and were forced to show their wins due to the way polymarket works. This does not appear to be true.


As an aside, I'll be going in person to do some Superbowl bets next week, anyone have some fun statistical it-could-happen-! 3+ leg parlays that I should gamble on? I did poorly last Superbowl due to betting on Kelce to do just about anything more than he did do. Also, is this finally a year where a non-QB/WR might get MVP or am I getting my hopes up again for nothing?

Went to South Point to see if they had more Super B-er, "NFL Championship" props than the one-pager they have online. They didn't, but mixed in among a few sheets from weeks ago (not only are there still NFL Week 18 sheets, but college football conference championship week as well), were some Olympics bets. The only four they have are:
Men's Ice Hockey (Canada favored at +140; USA is +180)
Women's Ice Hockey (USA favored at -160; Canada is +140)
Men's Curling (Great Britain favored at +100; Canada is +220, and USA is +10,000)
Women's Curling (Canada favored at -200; USA is +10,000)
What, no mixed curling, or team figure skating, or even mixed snowcross relay?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Went to South Point to see if they had more Super B-er, "NFL Championship" props than the one-pager they have online. They didn't, but mixed in among a few sheets from weeks ago (not only are there still NFL Week 18 sheets, but college football conference championship week as well), were some Olympics bets. The only four they have are:
Men's Ice Hockey (Canada favored at +140; USA is +180)
Women's Ice Hockey (USA favored at -160; Canada is +140)
Men's Curling (Great Britain favored at +100; Canada is +220, and USA is +10,000)
Women's Curling (Canada favored at -200; USA is +10,000)
What, no mixed curling, or team figure skating, or even mixed snowcross relay?
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I might have to put a $1 on U.S. men's curling at 100-1 odds. Curling is one of the few events I watch.

Quote: DRich

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Went to South Point to see if they had more Super B-er, "NFL Championship" props than the one-pager they have online. They didn't, but mixed in among a few sheets from weeks ago (not only are there still NFL Week 18 sheets, but college football conference championship week as well), were some Olympics bets. The only four they have are:
Men's Ice Hockey (Canada favored at +140; USA is +180)
Women's Ice Hockey (USA favored at -160; Canada is +140)
Men's Curling (Great Britain favored at +100; Canada is +220, and USA is +10,000)
Women's Curling (Canada favored at -200; USA is +10,000)
What, no mixed curling, or team figure skating, or even mixed snowcross relay?
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I might have to put a $1 on U.S. men's curling at 100-1 odds. Curling is one of the few events I watch.
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Me too! That's my favorite event in the Winter Olympics.

I like the "knock" games where you are moving pieces around on the board with other pieces, and a dice game where you can throw a die and change another die that has already been thrown I'd like to create. Like dice curling?

just had one of my reliable sites have an offer that appears, then disappears on signing in

not a good sign

definitely going to be doing some cashing out [and goodbye] after super bowl ... gotta wait and see til then

Quote: odiousgambit

just had one of my reliable sites have an offer that appears, then disappears on signing in

not a good sign

definitely going to be doing some cashing out [and goodbye] after super bowl ... gotta wait and see til then
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Who knows why they do what they do? I’ve had 5-10 markedly +EV bet offers daily now for a bit.

Two today so far.
Blackhawks ML at +199. (Fair is +140)
Michigan St at +154. (Fair is +105).

Usually right before 7pm another couple appear.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

just had one of my reliable sites have an offer that appears, then disappears on signing in

not a good sign

definitely going to be doing some cashing out [and goodbye] after super bowl ... gotta wait and see til then
link to original post

Who knows why they do what they do? I’ve had 5-10 markedly +EV bet offers daily now for a bit.

Two today so far.
Blackhawks ML at +199. (Fair is +140)
Michigan St at +154. (Fair is +105).

Usually right before 7pm another couple appear.
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It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.

Quote: DRich

It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
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Soopoo is the master of online sports betting

He goes at them with psychological warfare and he has manipulation secrets

One thing he does [I'm theorizing here] is keep up the size of his action ... I tend to let it fall off

Quote: SOOPOO

Who knows why they do what they do? I’ve had 5-10 markedly +EV bet offers daily now for a bit.

Two today so far.
Blackhawks ML at +199. (Fair is +140)
Michigan St at +154. (Fair is +105).

Usually right before 7pm another couple appear.
link to original post

just out of curiosity - if you don't mind my asking -
do they limit your action (how much you can bet) on these + ev deals?
and are the + ev deals always on the underdog?
doesn't that mean that a bet on the fave must offer odds that are less than fair?

.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: DRich

It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
link to original post

Soopoo is the master of online sports betting

He goes at them with psychological warfare and he has manipulation secrets

One thing he does [I'm theorizing here] is keep up the size of his action ... I tend to let it fall off
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I am the master of enjoying it. I can assure you there are others FAR BETTER at it than I am!

I was about to post my best recent bet. I had a small golf profit boost, I’m sure not enough to make the bet +EV. So I took a stab on Justin Rose at 45-1. Maximum bet allowed $250. He’s leading at halfway point, maybe enough to be greater than 50% chance to win.

My $1 bet may win $45…..

I do have a decent parlay last leg is Arsenal to win today. (I lose if a draw). First two legs were slight underdogs so boosted this is ‘a lot’ for me.

Quote: lilredrooster

just out of curiosity - if you don't mind my asking -
do they limit your action (how much you can bet) on these + ev deals?

limiting your action is part of the deal, even if it is a lousy deal like a 20% boost on a 4 leg same game parlay... they worry

Quote:

and are the + ev deals always on the underdog?

you can bet either side almost always, though often the boosts are for same game parlays. The ones that are for a single bet are sweet!

Quote:

doesn't that mean that a bet on the fave must offer odds that are less than fair?

You can check with other sites to see if that game is being played.

.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: DRich

It's hard to believe that is the same Hard Rock casino that I use.
link to original post

Soopoo is the master of online sports betting

He goes at them with psychological warfare and he has manipulation secrets

One thing he does [I'm theorizing here] is keep up the size of his action ... I tend to let it fall off
link to original post

I am the master of enjoying it. I can assure you there are others FAR BETTER at it than I am!

I was about to post my best recent bet. I had a small golf profit boost, I’m sure not enough to make the bet +EV. So I took a stab on Justin Rose at 45-1. Maximum bet allowed $250. He’s leading at halfway point, maybe enough to be greater than 50% chance to win.

My $1 bet may win $45…..

I do have a decent parlay last leg is Arsenal to win today. (I lose if a draw). First two legs were slight underdogs so boosted this is ‘a lot’ for me.
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congratulations it looks like you won your bet. Justin rose finished -21 from what I seen