Sports betting chatter
October 10th, 2025 at 10:36:18 PM
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I'm off to an early 1-0 with USF money line over North Texas.
Tomorrow I'm going to be on Oklahoma for sure. Not sure what else.
Tomorrow I'm going to be on Oklahoma for sure. Not sure what else.
October 11th, 2025 at 6:21:10 AM
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UFC card is in Brazil tonight. I’m a believer in home town judge impact not being reflected properly in the lines.
Looking at he Brazilians on the card where the the round total shows a likely decision and the odds show it as not a terribly lopsided fight, I filter it to: Filho -125 over Carpenter
Looking at he Brazilians on the card where the the round total shows a likely decision and the odds show it as not a terribly lopsided fight, I filter it to: Filho -125 over Carpenter
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 11th, 2025 at 6:36:16 AM
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OK, put some money on thatQuote: unJonUFC card is in Brazil tonight. I’m a believer in home town judge impact not being reflected properly in the lines.
Looking at he Brazilians on the card where the the round total shows a likely decision and the odds show it as not a terribly lopsided fight, I filter it to: Filho -125 over Carpenter
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and ten cents on a tie at +8000 for a lark
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 11th, 2025 at 7:20:56 AM
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Not sure why MGM is ‘nice’ to me again. In the very beginning, I made some big bets as the other side of boosted or free bets from other sites. I became a VIP but that didn’t last long as I was killing them. Most good offers went away and I was probably given less than $10 in +EV opportunities. I killed then on their free game which gave parlay boosts. Now I am not eligible to play those free games and my $50 bet limit mostly has been throttled to $25. But I’m getting a lot of them, plus the recently mentioned deposit match. I think things just got better maybe because of the big bets I put on Sabres playoffs that between the two sites were free money. But each individual site must look at me like a stupid Buffalo fan, or stupid Sabres hater.
Bottom line is, who knows?
Lost a few parlays including Tigers over 5.5. But hit one juicy parlay that finished including a batter hit in extra innings. The Carpenter HR hit, but right after the starting pitcher was removed! That also hit Tigers winning race to 2! (Correlated!!!).
I’m considering 8 team parlay fading DRick’s picks….
Bottom line is, who knows?
Lost a few parlays including Tigers over 5.5. But hit one juicy parlay that finished including a batter hit in extra innings. The Carpenter HR hit, but right after the starting pitcher was removed! That also hit Tigers winning race to 2! (Correlated!!!).
I’m considering 8 team parlay fading DRick’s picks….
October 11th, 2025 at 3:24:48 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
I’m considering 8 team parlay fading DRick’s picks….
I wouldn't blame you at all after last weeks picks.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 11th, 2025 at 4:08:34 PM
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Quote: DRichHere are my college bets this weekend. Hopefully, I do a little better than last week.
Rutgers +11.5
Missouri +3.5
Pittsburgh + 10.5
Iowa State -2.5
Indiana +7.5
Northwestern + 21.5
Louisiana Monroe -2.5
Wisconsin ML +135
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The Wisconsin line just jumped three points to Iowa -5.5 as apparently Gronowski is starting after being out a couple weeks. The money line is now Wisconsin +175.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 13th, 2025 at 6:15:09 PM
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Exciting time for college football. Starting tomorrow college football will be on TV Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays for the next four weeks.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 14th, 2025 at 5:17:28 AM
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Quote: DRichExciting time for college football. Starting tomorrow college football will be on TV Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays for the next four weeks.
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Wait until the NFL gets that memo!
I can just imagine how high the game quality is for the Tuesday and Wednesday broadcasts. Slippery Blubber Univ vs the Sam Houston Institute of Technology?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
October 14th, 2025 at 6:19:09 AM
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Quote: gordonm888Quote: DRichExciting time for college football. Starting tomorrow college football will be on TV Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays for the next four weeks.
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Wait until the NFL gets that memo!
I can just imagine how high the game quality is for the Tuesday and Wednesday broadcasts. Slippery Blubber Univ vs the Sam Houston Institute of Technology?
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Clearly college football is dominating the NFL. The NFL only gets three televised days per week and college is getting five. Personally, the broadcast quality isn't important to me as I watch almost all football games with the sound muted. I don't like hearing other peoples opinions when I can draw my own.
Go Slippery Blubber!!!!
I will be watching or recording all three games tonight.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 14th, 2025 at 8:45:46 AM
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At some point in the early 1980s, ABC entered into preliminary discussions to broadcast three night games a week, but the early Thursday Night Football experiment was deemed a failure. ABC dreamed of an All-NFL prime time schedule but couldn't figure out what to do in the off-season. It also couldn't figure out how to syndicate reruns, which was a significant source of income.
The Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961, which prohibited the NFL from being broadcast on Fridays and Saturdays until late December, is still in effect, although it hasn't been enforced in years. Whether it applies to streaming services has not been resolved. That same law said the NFL could blackout games that weren't sold out ahead of time, but the NFL got the FCC to amend that part of the law a few years back. It's been years since the NFL blacked out a game in the local market.
ABC used to broadcast a Monday Night Baseball game when it had the MLB contract. It never really took off but coincidentally broadcast the Yankee- Os game the day of Thurman Munson's funeral, where hours after eulogizing his best friend, Bobby Murcer drove in all five runs in an incredible 5-4 comeback victory.
The Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961, which prohibited the NFL from being broadcast on Fridays and Saturdays until late December, is still in effect, although it hasn't been enforced in years. Whether it applies to streaming services has not been resolved. That same law said the NFL could blackout games that weren't sold out ahead of time, but the NFL got the FCC to amend that part of the law a few years back. It's been years since the NFL blacked out a game in the local market.
ABC used to broadcast a Monday Night Baseball game when it had the MLB contract. It never really took off but coincidentally broadcast the Yankee- Os game the day of Thurman Munson's funeral, where hours after eulogizing his best friend, Bobby Murcer drove in all five runs in an incredible 5-4 comeback victory.
Last edited by: billryan on Oct 14, 2025
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
October 14th, 2025 at 9:26:35 AM
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for today's game -
NMSU + 10.5 over Liberty
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for today's game -
NMSU + 10.5 over Liberty
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 14th, 2025 at 9:58:18 AM
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Football as Kudzu
I think the NFL has had some sense of understanding that their pipeline of players depends upon college and high school football and that Fridays are for high school football and Saturdays are for college football. And that hurting college football and high school football was not in their best interest. So the NFL's expansion into new time slots went first to Monday Night, then to afternoon games on Thanksgiving holiday,to 16 game seasons and most recently to Thursday night and 17 game seasons. And their search for new eyeballs and new revenue has expanded geographically into Europe and Mexico.
It's been the sprawling multi-headed entity of college football that has begun the upsetting of the apple cart. First they expanded into Friday nights that compete with high school football - but only with obscure, low interest colleges. And, for the first week (only) of college football, before the NFL season has started, they have expanded into Sunday, Monday night and Thursday night. CFB has also expanded to 12 game seasons and multiweek playoffs in the winter.
And now, College Football has tiptoed into Wednesday night and finally Tuesday night.
I think the NFL has had some sense of understanding that their pipeline of players depends upon college and high school football and that Fridays are for high school football and Saturdays are for college football. And that hurting college football and high school football was not in their best interest. So the NFL's expansion into new time slots went first to Monday Night, then to afternoon games on Thanksgiving holiday,to 16 game seasons and most recently to Thursday night and 17 game seasons. And their search for new eyeballs and new revenue has expanded geographically into Europe and Mexico.
It's been the sprawling multi-headed entity of college football that has begun the upsetting of the apple cart. First they expanded into Friday nights that compete with high school football - but only with obscure, low interest colleges. And, for the first week (only) of college football, before the NFL season has started, they have expanded into Sunday, Monday night and Thursday night. CFB has also expanded to 12 game seasons and multiweek playoffs in the winter.
And now, College Football has tiptoed into Wednesday night and finally Tuesday night.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
October 14th, 2025 at 10:02:28 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
for today's game -
NMSU + 10.5 over Liberty
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Give us your analysis! Since I’m sure I’ll have college football offers, I’ll ride with you!
I had a ‘don’t count your chickens til they hatch’ bet last night. Had a hunch Dawson Knox catches a TD with rumors main TE (Kincaid) might not play. Offer required a two leg parlay. So took Knox TD /Allen over 199.5 passing yards. After the first drive it looked like a lock. Allen had 60 ish yards passing, and threw a TD to Knox. I sent text to son gloating. Allen for the next 10 drives had a little over 100 yards….. with the boost was around 7-1….
October 14th, 2025 at 10:22:57 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
for today's game -
NMSU + 10.5 over Liberty
.
link to original post
Give us your analysis! Since I’m sure I’ll have college football offers, I’ll ride with you!
Liberty has trouble scoring points
their last 4 games they've only put up 13, 13, 7 and 19
NMSU crushed in its last game as the underdog and put up 37 points, and won by 27
I read several different predictions about today's game and I liked this one the best
https://herosports.com/fbs-new-mexico-state-liberty-prediction-betting-odds-tv-cpcp/
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 14th, 2025 at 11:22:08 AM
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Quote: gordonm888First they expanded into Friday nights that compete with high school football - but only with obscure, low interest colleges.
That's not the case any more. There are 2 games that feature top-25 schools this Friday, including Miami-Louisville. Miami is ranked #2 and Louisville beat them two years ago. This is a fairly big game.
October 18th, 2025 at 4:05:59 AM
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Ball St. +1.5 over Akron
UNLV +13.5 over Boise State
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Ball St. +1.5 over Akron
UNLV +13.5 over Boise State
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 18, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 18th, 2025 at 6:03:38 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Ball St. +1.5 over Akron
UNLV +13.5 over Boise State
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I am on UNLV also.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 18th, 2025 at 9:16:09 AM
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I probably have more college football bets today than I have ever had. I have about 50% of my bankroll on the line today.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 18th, 2025 at 1:45:30 PM
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UNLV is impressing me. How are they drawing for their home games?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
October 18th, 2025 at 2:58:13 PM
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Quote: DRichI probably have more college football bets today than I have ever had. I have about 50% of my bankroll on the line today.
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I never understand ‘bankroll’ for players with means. If you lose 1/2 your bankroll today, do you just replace it with other funds?
Let’s say you find an offer that would give you +200 on a bet that should be +100. Are you actually constrained by what you now call your ‘bankroll’?
I had that opportunity at +300 and -250. That made me ignore what I like to bet/risk, because, I had no risk. The factors were more about not being scrutinized.
I’m in Florida now. When last here I’d say my EV available on HardRock was maybe $10 a day. So no great opportunities compared to NY. Oh well. 80 and sunny has its costs.
October 18th, 2025 at 5:43:56 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichI probably have more college football bets today than I have ever had. I have about 50% of my bankroll on the line today.
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I never understand ‘bankroll’ for players with means. If you lose 1/2 your bankroll today, do you just replace it with other funds?
Let’s say you find an offer that would give you +200 on a bet that should be +100. Are you actually constrained by what you now call your ‘bankroll’?
I had that opportunity at +300 and -250. That made me ignore what I like to bet/risk, because, I had no risk. The factors were more about not being scrutinized.
I’m in Florida now. When last here I’d say my EV available on HardRock was maybe $10 a day. So no great opportunities compared to NY. Oh well. 80 and sunny has its costs.
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It’s a good point. For normal gamblers I take it to normally mean the amount of money they have set aside that they are comfortable losing. So I think if an unusual arbitrage opportunity comes along, like your +300 and -250 scenario, then the person wouldn’t be constrained by that “bankroll.”
On the other hand, I do think people recalculate “the amount they are comfortable losing” from time to time as they win or lose over the course of the season, which causes them to change their mental “bankroll.” This is a well known cognitive bias known as “mental accounting.” It makes for interesting (and useful) reading if you want to delve into it.
For Kelly purposes, a “bankroll” is all the money you will ever have that is available to be put at risk, such that if you lost it you could never have the opportunity to play ever again. But most people that use “Kelly” do not use that definition of bankroll. But that’s fine, just means instead of betting, for example, a Half Kelly, they are betting somewhere lower than that.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 19th, 2025 at 3:47:24 AM
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now that I realize you don't want to withdraw money from an online sportsbook* until you're done with it, this makes for a new definition of bankroll for me anyway. Whatever money is in the account once I have settled on that, tends to be 'the bankroll' . I find I just don't want to add anymore money, even though the true amount I would be willing to risk is much larger by far, if I didn't fall into this conceit of not wanting to make more deposits. Of course there would be certain things I couldn't say no to, but the day to day doesn't seem to bring that
* withdrawing money gets noticed. I probably would still have a good deal going with betMGM except I kept withdrawing my winnings. Big mistake. Realize though that the sportsbooks are state regulated and I know now that they want no trouble and get the money to you fast as long as they know you are legit
* withdrawing money gets noticed. I probably would still have a good deal going with betMGM except I kept withdrawing my winnings. Big mistake. Realize though that the sportsbooks are state regulated and I know now that they want no trouble and get the money to you fast as long as they know you are legit
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 19th, 2025 at 1:39:46 PM
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Still perfect (7-0) in my $1,000,000 survivor pool. Chiefs today. Eagles next weekend. Since I’m not in NY and am not sure if I can make picks from out of state, I put in all my picks until week 18.
I really miss betting on the 4 sites I use in NY. HardRock is ok, but it’s just one site. I’m 1 for 1 on jai alai.
I really miss betting on the 4 sites I use in NY. HardRock is ok, but it’s just one site. I’m 1 for 1 on jai alai.
October 20th, 2025 at 5:46:58 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichI probably have more college football bets today than I have ever had. I have about 50% of my bankroll on the line today.
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I never understand ‘bankroll’ for players with means. If you lose 1/2 your bankroll today, do you just replace it with other funds?
Let’s say you find an offer that would give you +200 on a bet that should be +100. Are you actually constrained by what you now call your ‘bankroll’?
I had that opportunity at +300 and -250. That made me ignore what I like to bet/risk, because, I had no risk. The factors were more about not being scrutinized.
I’m in Florida now. When last here I’d say my EV available on HardRock was maybe $10 a day. So no great opportunities compared to NY. Oh well. 80 and sunny has its costs.
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I do set a bankroll each year for my sports gambling, this year it is about equal to my annual take home pay, just to make sure I don't do anything stupid. I do admit, if I find the right advantage I will get a payday loan, car title loan, bank loan, and prostitute my wife.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 20th, 2025 at 5:49:12 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
I’m in Florida now. When last here I’d say my EV available on HardRock was maybe $10 a day. So no great opportunities compared to NY. Oh well. 80 and sunny has its costs.
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I have received exactly zero boosts from Hard Rock since college football season started. I hope you get a lot more than me.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 20th, 2025 at 6:55:59 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
I’m in Florida now. When last here I’d say my EV available on HardRock was maybe $10 a day. So no great opportunities compared to NY. Oh well. 80 and sunny has its costs.
link to original post
I have received exactly zero boosts from Hard Rock since college football season started. I hope you get a lot more than me.
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A couple of 30% boosts at $50 max. With the constraints only slightly +EV. Some 10% that still are -EV. ‘Risk free’ bets definitely +EV, but was limited to $10.
Just guessing, but feels like around $10 a day in EV.
October 20th, 2025 at 7:34:09 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOStill perfect (7-0) in my $1,000,000 survivor pool. Chiefs today. Eagles next weekend. Since I’m not in NY and am not sure if I can make picks from out of state, I put in all my picks until week 18.
I really miss betting on the 4 sites I use in NY. HardRock is ok, but it’s just one site. I’m 1 for 1 on jai alai.
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I am also 7-0 in the free online ESPN eliminator contest. Only 12.4% of players have survived this far. With over 1 Million participants, that means there are 135,390 players remaining. I picked Detroit in Week7, probably going with Atlanta in Week 8.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
October 21st, 2025 at 9:00:03 AM
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Quote: gordonm888Quote: SOOPOOStill perfect (7-0) in my $1,000,000 survivor pool. Chiefs today. Eagles next weekend. Since I’m not in NY and am not sure if I can make picks from out of state, I put in all my picks until week 18.
I really miss betting on the 4 sites I use in NY. HardRock is ok, but it’s just one site. I’m 1 for 1 on jai alai.
link to original post
I am also 7-0 in the free online ESPN eliminator contest. Only 12.4% of players have survived this far. With over 1 Million participants, that means there are 135,390 players remaining. I picked Detroit in Week7, probably going with Atlanta in Week 8.
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A good friend of mine is still alive in a Survivor contest that was $1000 entry. They had 78 participants and only 6 left for the $78,000 first prize. They have a stupid rule that when your team loses you are immediately out. I explained to him to try and pick Sunday night and Monday night games because it is likely others will go out on Sunday and he would win.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 21st, 2025 at 10:28:17 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: gordonm888Quote: SOOPOOStill perfect (7-0) in my $1,000,000 survivor pool. Chiefs today. Eagles next weekend. Since I’m not in NY and am not sure if I can make picks from out of state, I put in all my picks until week 18.
I really miss betting on the 4 sites I use in NY. HardRock is ok, but it’s just one site. I’m 1 for 1 on jai alai.
link to original post
I am also 7-0 in the free online ESPN eliminator contest. Only 12.4% of players have survived this far. With over 1 Million participants, that means there are 135,390 players remaining. I picked Detroit in Week7, probably going with Atlanta in Week 8.
link to original post
A good friend of mine is still alive in a Survivor contest that was $1000 entry. They had 78 participants and only 6 left for the $78,000 first prize. They have a stupid rule that when your team loses you are immediately out. I explained to him to try and pick Sunday night and Monday night games because it is likely others will go out on Sunday and he would win.
link to original post
I lost a playoff pool one year because of those rules. I lost a one o'clock game and was eliminated, so the guy who picked the 4 PM game was the last survivor. When he lost, I complained loudly, to no avail. We did agree to change the rules for the next year. I forget if it was a $5 or a $20 pool, but it wasn't any more than that. It helped that the guy who won bought a couple of rounds For The Boys.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
October 23rd, 2025 at 1:19:40 PM
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Who do you like in the pacers game tonight with the pacers being underdog at home?
October 23rd, 2025 at 2:09:03 PM
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Quote: avianrandyWho do you like in the pacers game tonight with the pacers being underdog at home?
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Without Halliburton I expect the Pacers to be a below average team. The Thunder are close to the same team as last year. Thunder 128. Pacrrs111.
As a reminder, I am correct on nearly 49 % of my even money selections.
October 23rd, 2025 at 6:46:14 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
As a reminder, I am correct on nearly 49 % of my even money selections.
Quit bragging.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 23rd, 2025 at 11:08:25 PM
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Wow I think line was thunder by 6.5 and they won by 6. Crazy how close those lines are. Double overtime
Last edited by: avianrandy on Oct 24, 2025
October 25th, 2025 at 4:10:18 AM
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Western Michigan/Miami of Ohio - over 40.5
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Western Michigan/Miami of Ohio - over 40.5
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 25th, 2025 at 5:09:47 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Western Michigan/Miami of Ohio - over 40.5
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Good work lilred. That’s $5 extra in my account! Makes a dent in my dismal college football selections.
October 25th, 2025 at 5:44:37 PM
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Bama down 22-16 with 2:16 left. Final score- Bama 29, South Carolina 22. Shades of 2024.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
October 26th, 2025 at 6:21:22 AM
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Patriots - 7 over Browns
Patriots - 7 over Browns
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 26, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 26th, 2025 at 2:07:58 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Patriots - 7 over Browns
link to original post
Lilred on a heater!
I’m still alive after 8 weeks in the $1 million suicide pool.
Eagles cruised today. Got Chargers next week.
The only thing good about my NFL bets was how little I bet!
October 26th, 2025 at 2:38:04 PM
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Of all weeks for the jets to win their first game...DOH
October 26th, 2025 at 5:03:51 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
Patriots - 7 over Browns
link to original post
Lilred on a heater!
I’m still alive after 8 weeks in the $1 million suicide pool.
Eagles cruised today. Got Chargers next week.
The only thing good about my NFL bets was how little I bet!
link to original post
I was eliminated in my Survivor competition today in the 8th week. I had picked Falcons over Dolphins this week.. I had identified about 5 good reasons to make that pick and now I can't remember any of them.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
October 27th, 2025 at 8:20:54 AM
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Chiefs
Brashard Smith over 15.5 receiving yards - I've seen -110, -118 and -140 quoted from different books
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Chiefs
Brashard Smith over 15.5 receiving yards - I've seen -110, -118 and -140 quoted from different books
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 27, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
October 27th, 2025 at 11:02:57 AM
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Is there a drop dead numer in the NFL?
What I'm looking for is a halftime lead that is just about insurmountable. Does a team winning by 14 points at the half win 95% of the games? Is that too small a lead? Does a three-touchdown halftime lead produce a win 95% of the time? I'm thinking the number is somewhere in between
The Giants were up by over 20 in the fourth quarter but lost. It's pretty rare but i'm curious what halftime lead produces a victory 95% of the time?
What I'm looking for is a halftime lead that is just about insurmountable. Does a team winning by 14 points at the half win 95% of the games? Is that too small a lead? Does a three-touchdown halftime lead produce a win 95% of the time? I'm thinking the number is somewhere in between
The Giants were up by over 20 in the fourth quarter but lost. It's pretty rare but i'm curious what halftime lead produces a victory 95% of the time?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
October 27th, 2025 at 11:38:46 AM
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.Quote: billryanIs there a drop dead numer in the NFL?
What I'm looking for is a halftime lead that is just about insurmountable. Does a team winning by 14 points at the half win 95% of the games? Is that too small a lead? Does a three-touchdown halftime lead produce a win 95% of the time? I'm thinking the number is somewhere in between
The Giants were up by over 20 in the fourth quarter but lost. It's pretty rare but i'm curious what halftime lead produces a victory 95% of the time?
link to original post
Of course there is! I just don’t know it. I’ll guess 18 point lead at halftime wins 19/20 times. 14 seems a bit low. But just guessing.
October 27th, 2025 at 11:43:23 AM
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Quote: billryanIs there a drop dead numer in the NFL?
What I'm looking for is a halftime lead that is just about insurmountable. Does a team winning by 14 points at the half win 95% of the games? Is that too small a lead? Does a three-touchdown halftime lead produce a win 95% of the time? I'm thinking the number is somewhere in between
The Giants were up by over 20 in the fourth quarter but lost. It's pretty rare but i'm curious what halftime lead produces a victory 95% of the time?
link to original post
I had a bet this weekend on the Miami vs Stanford game. It was 7-7 at halftime and I had Stanford +30.5. I am guessing that you can infer what happened.
Miami was up 35-7 with 30 seconds left and could have taken a knee to end the game. Instead, they ran it in for a touchdown for a score of 42-7 and a loss for me.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
October 27th, 2025 at 12:10:03 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO.Quote: billryanIs there a drop dead numer in the NFL?
What I'm looking for is a halftime lead that is just about insurmountable. Does a team winning by 14 points at the half win 95% of the games? Is that too small a lead? Does a three-touchdown halftime lead produce a win 95% of the time? I'm thinking the number is somewhere in between
The Giants were up by over 20 in the fourth quarter but lost. It's pretty rare but i'm curious what halftime lead produces a victory 95% of the time?
link to original post
Of course there is! I just don’t know it. I’ll guess 18 point lead at halftime wins 19/20 times. 14 seems a bit low. But just guessing.
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This feels right to me. It’s certainly under 25 points as number 10 on the list of biggest comebacks ever was a 25 point halftime deficit.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 27th, 2025 at 12:47:22 PM
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A couple of minutes of research showed that my chosen team has blown three 17-point halftime leads, yet has not won a game it trailed by 17. I've chosen only to look at games from 2000 on as offenses have changed.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
October 27th, 2025 at 1:43:41 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOO.Quote: billryanIs there a drop dead numer in the NFL?
What I'm looking for is a halftime lead that is just about insurmountable. Does a team winning by 14 points at the half win 95% of the games? Is that too small a lead? Does a three-touchdown halftime lead produce a win 95% of the time? I'm thinking the number is somewhere in between
The Giants were up by over 20 in the fourth quarter but lost. It's pretty rare but i'm curious what halftime lead produces a victory 95% of the time?
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Of course there is! I just don’t know it. I’ll guess 18 point lead at halftime wins 19/20 times. 14 seems a bit low. But just guessing.
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This feels right to me. It’s certainly under 25 points as number 10 on the list of biggest comebacks ever was a 25 point halftime deficit.
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Remember that most NFL games are close, so while these comebacks are fairly rare, so are halftime leads of that size.
Anyway I have data back 25 years or so, I can pull the numbers and check
October 27th, 2025 at 2:15:14 PM
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Ok, I was a bit surprised by the reults. 8 pts is enough to win over 75% of the time (7 pts just barely misses) and 19pts will get you over 95%.
Note that this is not split by home/away or favorite/underdog, which definitely is going to have an effect. I would not use these numbers to bet; they have less information than the market does. Blindly betting these numbers will almost certainly lose at a fairly large clip due to adverse selection and high vig in live bets.
This data does back to 2000 and does not include this year's data. And it is specifically for halftime leads, teams may have had bigger leads before halftime or at other times.
Note that this is not split by home/away or favorite/underdog, which definitely is going to have an effect. I would not use these numbers to bet; they have less information than the market does. Blindly betting these numbers will almost certainly lose at a fairly large clip due to adverse selection and high vig in live bets.
Halftime Lead: 1 W: 144 L: 105 T: 0 pct: 0.578
Halftime Lead: 2 W: 70 L: 64 T: 0 pct: 0.522
Halftime Lead: 3 W: 452 L: 308 T: 3 pct: 0.594
Halftime Lead: 4 W: 396 L: 227 T: 0 pct: 0.636
Halftime Lead: 5 W: 67 L: 27 T: 0 pct: 0.713
Halftime Lead: 6 W: 251 L: 96 T: 1 pct: 0.723
Halftime Lead: 7 W: 587 L: 200 T: 5 pct: 0.744
Halftime Lead: 8 W: 135 L: 34 T: 0 pct: 0.799
Halftime Lead: 9 W: 80 L: 13 T: 0 pct: 0.860
Halftime Lead: 10 W: 489 L: 99 T: 2 pct: 0.831
Halftime Lead: 11 W: 266 L: 48 T: 0 pct: 0.847
Halftime Lead: 12 W: 38 L: 7 T: 0 pct: 0.844
Halftime Lead: 13 W: 205 L: 20 T: 0 pct: 0.911
Halftime Lead: 14 W: 374 L: 33 T: 1 pct: 0.918
Halftime Lead: 15 W: 52 L: 5 T: 0 pct: 0.912
Halftime Lead: 16 W: 50 L: 6 T: 0 pct: 0.893
Halftime Lead: 17 W: 261 L: 21 T: 0 pct: 0.926
Halftime Lead: 18 W: 120 L: 10 T: 0 pct: 0.923
Halftime Lead: 19 W: 23 L: 1 T: 0 pct: 0.958
Halftime Lead: 20 W: 89 L: 5 T: 0 pct: 0.947
Halftime Lead: 21 W: 152 L: 8 T: 0 pct: 0.950
Halftime Lead: 22 W: 17 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 23 W: 24 L: 1 T: 0 pct: 0.960
Halftime Lead: 24 W: 100 L: 2 T: 0 pct: 0.980
Halftime Lead: 25 W: 24 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 26 W: 9 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 27 W: 23 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 28 W: 38 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 29 W: 1 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 30 W: 5 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 31 W: 13 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 32 W: 12 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 33 W: 2 L: 1 T: 0 pct: 0.667
Halftime Lead: 34 W: 7 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 35 W: 10 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 38 W: 3 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 40 W: 1 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 41 W: 2 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 42 W: 2 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 45 W: 1 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
This data does back to 2000 and does not include this year's data. And it is specifically for halftime leads, teams may have had bigger leads before halftime or at other times.
October 27th, 2025 at 2:33:44 PM
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Quote: SkinnyTonyOk, I was a bit surprised by the reults. 8 pts is enough to win over 75% of the time (7 pts just barely misses) and 19pts will get you over 95%.
Note that this is not split by home/away or favorite/underdog, which definitely is going to have an effect. I would not use these numbers to bet; they have less information than the market does. Blindly betting these numbers will almost certainly lose at a fairly large clip due to adverse selection and high vig in live bets.Halftime Lead: 1 W: 144 L: 105 T: 0 pct: 0.578
Halftime Lead: 2 W: 70 L: 64 T: 0 pct: 0.522
Halftime Lead: 3 W: 452 L: 308 T: 3 pct: 0.594
Halftime Lead: 4 W: 396 L: 227 T: 0 pct: 0.636
Halftime Lead: 5 W: 67 L: 27 T: 0 pct: 0.713
Halftime Lead: 6 W: 251 L: 96 T: 1 pct: 0.723
Halftime Lead: 7 W: 587 L: 200 T: 5 pct: 0.744
Halftime Lead: 8 W: 135 L: 34 T: 0 pct: 0.799
Halftime Lead: 9 W: 80 L: 13 T: 0 pct: 0.860
Halftime Lead: 10 W: 489 L: 99 T: 2 pct: 0.831
Halftime Lead: 11 W: 266 L: 48 T: 0 pct: 0.847
Halftime Lead: 12 W: 38 L: 7 T: 0 pct: 0.844
Halftime Lead: 13 W: 205 L: 20 T: 0 pct: 0.911
Halftime Lead: 14 W: 374 L: 33 T: 1 pct: 0.918
Halftime Lead: 15 W: 52 L: 5 T: 0 pct: 0.912
Halftime Lead: 16 W: 50 L: 6 T: 0 pct: 0.893
Halftime Lead: 17 W: 261 L: 21 T: 0 pct: 0.926
Halftime Lead: 18 W: 120 L: 10 T: 0 pct: 0.923
Halftime Lead: 19 W: 23 L: 1 T: 0 pct: 0.958
Halftime Lead: 20 W: 89 L: 5 T: 0 pct: 0.947
Halftime Lead: 21 W: 152 L: 8 T: 0 pct: 0.950
Halftime Lead: 22 W: 17 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 23 W: 24 L: 1 T: 0 pct: 0.960
Halftime Lead: 24 W: 100 L: 2 T: 0 pct: 0.980
Halftime Lead: 25 W: 24 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 26 W: 9 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 27 W: 23 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 28 W: 38 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 29 W: 1 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 30 W: 5 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 31 W: 13 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 32 W: 12 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 33 W: 2 L: 1 T: 0 pct: 0.667
Halftime Lead: 34 W: 7 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 35 W: 10 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 38 W: 3 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 40 W: 1 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 41 W: 2 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 42 W: 2 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
Halftime Lead: 45 W: 1 L: 0 T: 0 pct: 1.000
This data does back to 2000 and does not include this year's data. And it is specifically for halftime leads, teams may have had bigger leads before halftime or at other times.
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Is this regular season only? I don’t see the Chargers epic collapse vs Jags (27-0 at half) or Falcons collapse in the Super Bowl (28-3 at half).
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 27th, 2025 at 3:45:42 PM
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Quote:Is this regular season only? I don’t see the Chargers epic collapse vs Jags (27-0 at half) or Falcons collapse in the Super Bowl (28-3 at half).
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Yup, regular season only.
Actually, it also excludes neutral site games. This is the data that I use for my betting model and I intentionally exclude that since it didn't take for what I'm trying to do.
Although now that I look closer, neutral site games may not be excluded after all... I may have a bug or my source data may not be marking those correctly.
EDIT: There's an issue with my raw data. I'll correct it. Neutral site games aren't properly marked as such for 2022 and 2023 (only) So it includes neutral site games for those seasons. I'm glad I went through this exercise or I never would have caught that! Not that it will make a huge difference in my results, but it's still good to fix it.
Last edited by: SkinnyTony on Oct 27, 2025
