Sports betting chatter

The BJs and the Yankees ended the season with identical records, but the BJs won the season series8-5.
The BJs have home-field advantage, having the first two games at home, and would also be at home if the series goes the distance.
The Yankees are favored, despite that.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post

I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post

Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post

Oh maybe we are on different sites?

On FanDuel they have a "touchdown jackpot" where you make a $5 anytime TD bet. The give away $2M in bonus bets. $1M is split between everyone who picked the first TD scorer, and $1M is split between everyone who picked the last TD scorer. If the same player scores the first and last TDs of the game you win twice. And everyone only has 1 TD jackpot token to apply.

So there is an interesting strategy because if you take a "popular" player you will get paid less if you win. In the first game of the year I had Javonte and he scored the first TD of the game; it paid pretty well, I assume because most people were on Saquon. So there's a balance between who is likely to score vs who you think everyone else will pick. In the first game I intentionally avoided Saquon because of all the hype around him.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post

I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post

Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post

If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.

Quote: billryan

The BJs and the Yankees ended the season with identical records, but the BJs won the season series8-5.
The BJs have home-field advantage, having the first two games at home, and would also be at home if the series goes the distance.
The Yankees are favored, despite that.
link to original post

I was looking at that. Jays are favored in the 1st game but Yankees are favored in the series.

FWIW (probably not much) ESPN analytics has the yankees as a slight (52-48) favorite to win to win game 1.

The Yankees will choose between two starters. Luis Gill was last year's ROY and has electric stuff, but missed most of the season and has been walking too many people. Will Warren wasn't even in the Yankees' plans for 2026, but injuries thrust him into the rotation. He had a couple of outstanding starts and a few real stinkers. Whoever gets the start will be on a short leash, but if the Yankees can steal game one, they'll be in great shape.

Its hard to be a great team if your starting staff consists of one ace (Max Fried) a second effective pitcher (Rodon) and a bunch of unreliable hit-or-miss starters.

For the post-season a team needs at least three starters who are reliable and effective. The 2025 Yankees resemble those Braves teams from the 1950s with Aaron and Matthews - they hit a lot of home runs but the pitching was Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.

I felt the same way about the Yankees pitching earlier in the year, with Cole and Schmidt out for the season and Gil TBD we just didn't have the pitching to win in the postseason. But with Gil coming back and pitching well enough and then Schlittler coming out of nowhere, and then picking up Bednar as a closer we now have a staff that might not be the best but close enough, and probably good enough given Yankees offense. When last year's RoY is your 4th starter you have pitching.

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post

I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post

Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post

Oh maybe we are on different sites?

On FanDuel they have a "touchdown jackpot" where you make a $5 anytime TD bet. The give away $2M in bonus bets. $1M is split between everyone who picked the first TD scorer, and $1M is split between everyone who picked the last TD scorer. If the same player scores the first and last TDs of the game you win twice. And everyone only has 1 TD jackpot token to apply.

So there is an interesting strategy because if you take a "popular" player you will get paid less if you win. In the first game of the year I had Javonte and he scored the first TD of the game; it paid pretty well, I assume because most people were on Saquon. So there's a balance between who is likely to score vs who you think everyone else will pick. In the first game I intentionally avoided Saquon because of all the hype around him.
link to original post

I do that one. Had McCaffrey so won the few dollars but he didn’t score 1st or last TD. My offer that I got the $226 in free bets is on DK. First $26 bet made….. lost…

It also looks like Bo Bichette won't be back for this series. Though, that won't be official until tomorrow.

In football news, I had a profit boost (which is worth more with high odds, same as a bonus bet) and I couldn't resist Vandy on the money line. I got it at +420 (boosted from +320). It's a small bet (the boosts they give me are always limited to $10). I don't really expect it to win but I'm a little surprised that the spread is so high in that game.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

I felt the same way about the Yankees pitching earlier in the year, with Cole and Schmidt out for the season and Gil TBD we just didn't have the pitching to win in the postseason. But with Gil coming back and pitching well enough and then Schlittler coming out of nowhere, and then picking up Bednar as a closer we now have a staff that might not be the best but close enough, and probably good enough given Yankees offense. When last year's RoY is your 4th starter you have pitching.
link to original post

There is no great team in the AL. The Yankees' pitching is at least as good as that of any other remaining AL team, and they have, by far, the best offense. If the right Devon Williams shows up, so much the better.

Quote: billryan

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

I felt the same way about the Yankees pitching earlier in the year, with Cole and Schmidt out for the season and Gil TBD we just didn't have the pitching to win in the postseason. But with Gil coming back and pitching well enough and then Schlittler coming out of nowhere, and then picking up Bednar as a closer we now have a staff that might not be the best but close enough, and probably good enough given Yankees offense. When last year's RoY is your 4th starter you have pitching.
link to original post

There is no great team in the AL. The Yankees' pitching is at least as good as that of any other remaining AL team, and they have, by far, the best offense. If the right Devon Williams shows up, so much the better.
link to original post

Williams is fine, as long as he is not both closing and wearing a Yankee uniform. Someone needs to convince him it's the 6th and we're up by 8 runs when they send him out there to close, and he'll do well.

That's part of what makes baseball so intriguing. No one knows why things like that are the way they are. I argue a lot on Yankee fan sites, everybody hates Boone, but people who are a bit further removed from the game than I am don't realize that the most important job of a manager is to keep these guys, with their often oversized personalities and ridiculous emotional travails from having breakdowns. They can be like a busload of Girl Scouts sometimes. But if the manager is doing his job well nobody outside of the clubhouse will know anything about it.

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post

I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post

I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post

Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post

I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post

Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.
link to original post

I’m going to use this post to share my wins so far today.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post

I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post

Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.
link to original post

I’m going to use this post to share my wins so far today.
link to original post

I am declaring that my account was hijacked as I would never post that many terrible picks.

Anyone else watching the UNLV vs Wyoming game? There is a surprising amount of snow for October 4th.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post

I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post

Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.
link to original post

I’m going to use this post to share my wins so far today.
link to original post

I was having the same type of day until the Miami game 🤣🤣

But I won Miami 1st half money line (boosted to +100)

And I have Miami 1st half -2.5 parlayed with Miami full game ML (looking very good) and Miami ML parlayed with under 54.5 (looking good). Miami is currently up 28-3 late in the 3rd.

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post

I am embarrassed.

Ok so the Jays stomped the Yanks in Game 1.

The Yankees are favored tomorrow with Fried pitching but the real question is how many innings will he go? The Jays did pretty well against the Yankees bullpen today, and the Jays bullpen didn't give anything up (and even got them out of a bases loaded jam)

My Jays series bet is looking a little better but the key to the series is how well they do when the Yankees top starting pitchers play.

Quote: SkinnyTony

Ok so the Jays stomped the Yanks in Game 1.

The Yankees are favored tomorrow with Fried pitching but the real question is how many innings will he go? The Jays did pretty well against the Yankees bullpen today, and the Jays bullpen didn't give anything up (and even got them out of a bases loaded jam)

My Jays series bet is looking a little better but the key to the series is how well they do when the Yankees top starting pitchers play.
link to original post

Yankees may have done that trick where you put your #5 against their #1 in a semi-sacrifice. They never hit Gausman. Then assuming the rotations are equal they have the advantage for the next 4 games.

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post

I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post

Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post

If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.
link to original post

That worked out well for me!

Quote: unJon

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post

I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post

Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post

If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.
link to original post

That worked out well for me!
link to original post

Ghost parlay worked perfectly. I won 2/3 and got +221. So won $110.

I’m doing great today. More than making up for dismal college picks. Over Vikings. Cowboys -2.5. Texans -1.5. They all seemed ‘easy’.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post

I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post

Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post

If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.
link to original post

That worked out well for me!
link to original post

Ghost parlay worked perfectly. I won 2/3 and got +221. So won $110.

I’m doing great today. More than making up for dismal college picks. Over Vikings. Cowboys -2.5. Texans -1.5. They all seemed ‘easy’.
link to original post

I managed to go 0-3 on my teaser. The heavy favorites lost outright and the Giants were not close. Parlaying the opposite picks would have paid pretty well.

The New England / Buffalo game was interesting. The point spread and the money line did not line up. NE +350 was widely available (I even saw over +370 at a sharper offshore book with less vig) but the spread was only 7.5 (and at the sharper books you had to pay excess vig bet the Pats +7.5, indicating that the Bills should cover -7.5 slightly less than half the time). +350 is too high of a money line for the underdog there. You can get a 2-team 7-point teaser for -130, which works out to only -300 per leg. My data tells me that if the spread and total were accurate (including the vigs) a fair money line would have been +269. I didn't believe it (especially since the sharper books had even higher money lines) so I didn't bet it. I'm not sure what I'll do next time I see something like that.

Still alive in $1,000,000 survivor contest. Entry fee was $10, which I got for free.

Used Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Lions, and Cardinals. Going with Packers this week. If contest ended today I’d get around $40. So probably 25,000 contestants remain. I think I’m in decent shape as I’ve used the Cardinals and Dolphins.

Love the Cowboys over the Panthers. The Panthers are just bad. Had Demercado not forgotten to carry the football into the end zone, this game is a 7 point spread. Somehow people think Panthers are a competitive team. Cowboys only laying 3.5.

Did some work on ghost parlay. DK pays +595 on a 3 leg parlay with all games -110. It pays +264 on 2 leg parlays for -110 games. Assuming the -110 games are 50/50 propositions, then the +EV is massive.

You hit 3 out of 3, 1/8 of the time.
You hit 2 out of 3, 3/8 of the time.
You hit either 0 or 1 out of 3, 1/2 the time.

Assume $100 bet.
1/8 win $595. +$74
3/8 win $264. +99
1/2 lose $100. -50

So average win per $100 bet is $123. That’s not return. That’s WIN. EV around +123%.

I won’t be surprised if the promotion is ended, and the guy who proposed it is fired. DK stock been plummeting since they started this promotion.

Quote: SOOPOO

Still alive in $1,000,000 survivor contest. Entry fee was $10, which I got for free.

Used Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Lions, and Cardinals. Going with Packers this week. If contest ended today I’d get around $40. So probably 25,000 contestants remain. I think I’m in decent shape as I’ve used the Cardinals and Dolphins.

Love the Cowboys over the Panthers. The Panthers are just bad. Had Demercado not forgotten to carry the football into the end zone, this game is a 7 point spread. Somehow people think Panthers are a competitive team. Cowboys only laying 3.5.

Did some work on ghost parlay. DK pays +595 on a 3 leg parlay with all games -110. It pays +264 on 2 leg parlays for -110 games. Assuming the -110 games are 50/50 propositions, then the +EV is massive.

You hit 3 out of 3, 1/8 of the time.
You hit 2 out of 3, 3/8 of the time.
You hit either 0 or 1 out of 3, 1/2 the time.

Assume $100 bet.
1/8 win $595. +$74
3/8 win $264. +99
1/2 lose $100. -50

So average win per $100 bet is $123. That’s not return. That’s WIN. EV around +123%.

I won’t be surprised if the promotion is ended, and the guy who proposed it is fired. DK stock been plummeting since they started this promotion.
link to original post

All the books got crushed on the first few weeks of NFL. The squares love to make parlays of several heavy money line favorites. And all the big favorites won up until this week. The books will have done well this week with so many big upsets.

What does Dermercado have to do with Cowboys / Panthers? Are you confusing Panthers and Titans? Panthers are a strange team; I agree they are not great but somehow they crushed the Falcons. They also had a big comeback against Miami but that's less surprising. The Titans are complete trash; probably the worst team in the NFL.

Quote: SOOPOO

Still alive in $1,000,000 survivor contest. Entry fee was $10, which I got for free.

Used Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Lions, and Cardinals. Going with Packers this week. If contest ended today I’d get around $40. So probably 25,000 contestants remain. I think I’m in decent shape as I’ve used the Cardinals and Dolphins.

Love the Cowboys over the Panthers. The Panthers are just bad. Had Demercado not forgotten to carry the football into the end zone, this game is a 7 point spread. Somehow people think Panthers are a competitive team. Cowboys only laying 3.5.

Did some work on ghost parlay. DK pays +595 on a 3 leg parlay with all games -110. It pays +264 on 2 leg parlays for -110 games. Assuming the -110 games are 50/50 propositions, then the +EV is massive.

You hit 3 out of 3, 1/8 of the time.
You hit 2 out of 3, 3/8 of the time.
You hit either 0 or 1 out of 3, 1/2 the time.

Assume $100 bet.
1/8 win $595. +$74
3/8 win $264. +99
1/2 lose $100. -50

So average win per $100 bet is $123. That’s not return. That’s WIN. EV around +123%.

I won’t be surprised if the promotion is ended, and the guy who proposed it is fired. DK stock been plummeting since they started this promotion.
link to original post

Can you see which teams the other participants have already used? If so, use that information when choosing your picks.

Man Vlade hit another homer against the Yankees. It's amazing what good old fashioned hatred will do for a player's performance.

Stats are great but don't bet against a family vendetta.

Quote: SkinnyTony

Man Vlade hit another homer against the Yankees. It's amazing what good old fashioned hatred will do for a player's performance.

Stats are great but don't bet against a family vendetta.
link to original post

Wasn't enough. The Blue Jays sent Justin Bieber out there to pitch? I know Canada is proud of him, but what were they thinking?

Walking out of G2E on a lark I bet on the game. Figured something like this was going to happen so I took an Over at 9.5, Yankees over 6.5, and Yankees by exactly 3 because they have a pretty good closer in Bednar now and he's going to be in to shut it down if the Yankees have a big lead that is reduced to 3 late in the game. Got lucky with that one. Only one I missed was a parlay for Rice and Stanton to HR.

Quote: SOOPOO

Still alive in $1,000,000 survivor contest. Entry fee was $10, which I got for free.

Used Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Lions, and Cardinals. Going with Packers this week. If contest ended today I’d get around $40. So probably 25,000 contestants remain. I think I’m in decent shape as I’ve used the Cardinals and Dolphins.

I am in the free ESPN.com Eliminator contest and am also still alive. After 5 weeks, only 18.2% of the field is still alive, over half of the Week 4 survivors were eliminated in week 5 because of all the upsets. I have used the Texans, Patriots, Cardinals, Colts and Lions. I'm considering picking the Broncos over the Jets in Week 6. I've been fading bad teams and trying to save the good teams until later when my choices will be limited. Given 18 weeks and only 32 teams, you have to pick a lot of average teams to win at some point in time.

Not sure why the books are so off on the Sabres make/miss playoffs line. Just got another close line on Sabres. +215 to make playoffs. -220 to miss. With 100% profit boost on ‘to make’ its free money. I’ll give up the EV sometimes for free money. And the -220 bet can be construed as ‘cover’. I hit both ML and O/U MLB games yesterday. That’s a juicy bunch of 3 leg parlays, all boosted of course.

I didn’t bet it, but Guerrero has ridiculous record against Rodon. Batting in the .700’s against him. As the first inning HR was soaring out I felt foolish….

I just ‘won’ two more DK free pools. Total was over $1 but less than $2!

Same as yesterday! Guerrero was 4/5 against Schlittler. Just add Guerrero hit/RBI to my parlay. Nope. Didn’t do it. RBI line drive hit first at bat…Need Yanks/over to finish SGP+.

I noticed on his 2nd at-bat of the game tonight that Guerrero had a Post-Season OPS of 1.902. That's incredible.

.
linked is a pretty interesting article showing how parlays are often very bad bets

of course, it doesn't apply to bettors like Soopoo who get a boost with their parlays or to those whose great handicapping may give them an advantage

from the link

"Sportsbooks are cashing in. Bettors lose billions of dollars a year on parlays, the data shows, and operators bring in far more revenue for every dollar wagered on these bets than they do straight bets. In most of the states that publish the relevant data, parlays account for between half and two-thirds of the operators’ revenue."

below is how much is lost to the HE based on a $100 bet - the amount and the %

I believe this is based on all bets being priced at -110 - as has been posted here I believe the HE can vary if the odds are different than that

when they say fair payout I believe they mean if there was no he -

Legs
Fair payout
Actual payout
Percent lost
1 leg (actually not a parlay)
$200 - fair payout
$191 - actual payout
5% he
2 legs
$400 - fair payout
$364 - actual payout
9% he
3 legs
$800 - fair payout
$696 - actual payout
13% he
4 legs
$1,600 - fair payout
$1,328 - actual payout
17% he
5 legs
$3,200 - fair payout
$2,536 - actual payout
21% he


https://archive.ph/ScUA6#selection-349.0-349.331

.

Quote: lilredrooster

.
linked is a pretty interesting article showing how parlays are often very bad bets

of course, it doesn't apply to bettors like Soopoo who get a boost with their parlays or to those whose great handicapping may give them an advantage

from the link

"Sportsbooks are cashing in. Bettors lose billions of dollars a year on parlays, the data shows, and operators bring in far more revenue for every dollar wagered on these bets than they do straight bets. In most of the states that publish the relevant data, parlays account for between half and two-thirds of the operators’ revenue."

below is how much is lost to the HE based on a $100 bet - the amount and the %

I believe this is based on all bets being priced at -110 - as has been posted here I believe the HE can vary if the odds are different than that

when they say fair payout I believe they mean if there was no he -

Legs
Fair payout
Actual payout
Percent lost
1 leg (actually not a parlay)
$200 - fair payout
$191 - actual payout
5% he
2 legs
$400 - fair payout
$364 - actual payout
9% he
3 legs
$800 - fair payout
$696 - actual payout
13% he
4 legs
$1,600 - fair payout
$1,328 - actual payout
17% he
5 legs
$3,200 - fair payout
$2,536 - actual payout
21% he


https://archive.ph/ScUA6#selection-349.0-349.331

.
link to original post

Well, yeah, of course. That's obvious right?

If you are a losing player you lose more when betting parlays because you are effectively betting more, and your loss is the house edge multiplied by how much you bet, just like any other form of gambling. This is no different from the craps player who presses his bets or the blackjack player who doubles his bets after a win.

The person who doubles his bet is still playing at the same odds on a single event. Someone who parlays is laying out money on multiple events, all of which must occur. I don't see how one resembles the other.

Quote: billryan

The person who doubles his bet is still playing at the same odds on a single event. Someone who parlays is laying out money on multiple events, all of which must occur. I don't see how one resembles the other.
link to original post

Mathematically, they are identical. In sports betting it's often referred to as a "mechanical parlay" to take all your winnings+stake on one bet and bet it on another game.

Say you bet $100 on a morning game at +100 If you win, you plan to take all the resulting money ($200) and bet it on an evening game. That's no different from betting a parlay on the two games (assuming that the evening game line doesn't move before the morning game is over; for a losing bettor this is irrelevant ev-wise, since he is just as likely to be on the wrong side of the move as the right one)

The reason that sportsbooks make so much money on parlays is that they cause people to implicitly bet much more. Say you normally bet $100/game. And say you decide to bet a 6-team parlay. For simplicity let's assume that all the teams are slight underdogs and you are getting +100 (so the +100 line is -EV). Since it's a parlay and you figure you will probably lose, you decide to only bet $20 instead of $100.

Say you hit the first 5 legs, and the 6th game hasn't started. Now you essentially have a $640 bet on the 6th game. But you are a $100 bettor. You would never bet $640 on a single game. But that's what the parlay has tricked you into doing, and you are paying the full house edge on that $640.

Quote: lilredrooster

.
linked is a pretty interesting article showing how parlays are often very bad bets

of course, it doesn't apply to bettors like Soopoo who get a boost with their parlays or to those whose great handicapping may give them an advantage

from the link

"Sportsbooks are cashing in. Bettors lose billions of dollars a year on parlays, the data shows, and operators bring in far more revenue for every dollar wagered on these bets than they do straight bets. In most of the states that publish the relevant data, parlays account for between half and two-thirds of the operators’ revenue."

below is how much is lost to the HE based on a $100 bet - the amount and the %

I believe this is based on all bets being priced at -110 - as has been posted here I believe the HE can vary if the odds are different than that

when they say fair payout I believe they mean if there was no he -

Legs
Fair payout
Actual payout
Percent lost
1 leg (actually not a parlay)
$200 - fair payout
$191 - actual payout
5% he
2 legs
$400 - fair payout
$364 - actual payout
9% he
3 legs
$800 - fair payout
$696 - actual payout
13% he
4 legs
$1,600 - fair payout
$1,328 - actual payout
17% he
5 legs
$3,200 - fair payout
$2,536 - actual payout
21% he


https://archive.ph/ScUA6#selection-349.0-349.331

.
link to original post

You've posted something similar before I think

We benefit from the advice to not bet parlays unthinkingly, and it is good to point out what the sportsbooks are doing. However, I can see the HE increases to 21% in your example, copied from the link. I had to catch myself making statements like that about parlay HE myself, being faced with parlays as a new thing once I started online sportsbook use. But I finally realized this is counter to the Wizard's mantra that no betting system can "even put a dent" in the HE. Important to note, he means any way of arranging your bets is unable to affect the edge one way or the other

What the writer has done is compared the outcome in a parlay to HE, I have called this mathematical result "the apparent edge" and I have to criticize the writer for not doing something similar to change what he calls it because believing the HE can change potentially also leads you down a bad path.

LikRed’s analysis is ok for non correlated parlays. I sometimes find correlated events that I do not believe the books take into account enough when setting the odds.

Player points and rebounds in basketball.
Player rushing yards and team winning
Goal scorer and over in hockey

Some more subtle ones I don’t want to publish.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: lilredrooster

.
linked is a pretty interesting article showing how parlays are often very bad bets

of course, it doesn't apply to bettors like Soopoo who get a boost with their parlays or to those whose great handicapping may give them an advantage

from the link

"Sportsbooks are cashing in. Bettors lose billions of dollars a year on parlays, the data shows, and operators bring in far more revenue for every dollar wagered on these bets than they do straight bets. In most of the states that publish the relevant data, parlays account for between half and two-thirds of the operators’ revenue."

below is how much is lost to the HE based on a $100 bet - the amount and the %

I believe this is based on all bets being priced at -110 - as has been posted here I believe the HE can vary if the odds are different than that

when they say fair payout I believe they mean if there was no he -

Legs
Fair payout
Actual payout
Percent lost
1 leg (actually not a parlay)
$200 - fair payout
$191 - actual payout
5% he
2 legs
$400 - fair payout
$364 - actual payout
9% he
3 legs
$800 - fair payout
$696 - actual payout
13% he
4 legs
$1,600 - fair payout
$1,328 - actual payout
17% he
5 legs
$3,200 - fair payout
$2,536 - actual payout
21% he


https://archive.ph/ScUA6#selection-349.0-349.331

.
link to original post

You've posted something similar before I think

We benefit from the advice to not bet parlays unthinkingly, and it is good to point out what the sportsbooks are doing. However, I can see the HE increases to 21% in your example, copied from the link. I had to catch myself making statements like that about parlay HE myself, being faced with parlays as a new thing once I started online sportsbook use. But I finally realized this is counter to the Wizard's mantra that no betting system can "even put a dent" in the HE. Important to note, he means any way of arranging your bets is unable to affect the edge one way or the other

What the writer has done is compared the outcome in a parlay to HE, I have called this mathematical result "the apparent edge" and I have to criticize the writer for not doing something similar to change what he calls it because believing the HE can change potentially also leads you down a bad path.
link to original post

The reason the house edge changes is because you've essentially agreed to bet (much) more if you win the first leg. It's the same as the table games player who presses his bets because he's "playing with house money" or some other such nonsense.

Basically, consider a 2-team $100 parlay, made up of coin flips at -110. Half the time you lose your first leg, and have only bet $100. But half the time you win the first leg and are now risking $190.91 on the 2nd game, in addition to the $100 you bet on the first leg. So the 4.54% house edge is calculated in your average total action ($100 50% of the time, and $290.91 50% of the time, which averages to $195.46). So instead of the house edge being 4.55% of $100, it's 45.5% of $195.46, which is $8.89, which is 8.89% of the original $100.

Even if you have an edge on all the bets, you need to be careful. Yes your edge compounds but so does your variance, so your optimal bet size (using Kelly) drops.

Of course there are lots of good reasons to bet parlays too:

1. Correlated parlays (as SOOPOO mentions)
2. Getting around betting limits. If they limit you but allow you to bet parlays at the same limits this lets you get more action down.
3. Making your betting action look more square. Important at rec books if you have an edge and are betting big.

One big downside that isn't mentioned here is that it limits your opportunities to line shop! If the best line on Game 1 is at one book and the best line on Game 2 is at another book (which happens all the time) then by parlaying them you are actually taking a worse line on one of the games. And this applies whether you have an edge or not. Given the multitude of free odds screens available there is no reason not to get the best line available, even if you are just betting for fun without an edge. Just like the basic strategy player who sits at a 6:5 table when there is a 3:2 table in the other pit: long term you are going to lose either way but you may as well take the best odds available and lose as little as possible.

As an aside, if you insist on playing NFL sides close to post time, betMGM reduces their juice to 2c or 2.5c lines 1hr before kickoff (4-5c spread). Today they had Philly -7.5 +100 and NYG +7.5 -105. If you are just flipping coins to decide your pick, that's a 1.21% house edge. On my odds screen (which I limit to books that are available to me in my state, plus a couple of sharp ones) that showed up as the best available line on both sides!

I rarely bet NFL sides close to post (I concede that the market is efficient and the closing lines are sharp) but today I couldn't resist. I felt strongly that the line was too high so I bet the Giants +7.5 at -105. I have no clue if I had an edge and I don't make enough of these bets for my data to tell me anything.

I’ve posted about the parlay HE before and SkinnyTony has it correct. Except that most books shortchange you when you parlay -110 legs (except for the three leg parlay) so it can be worse than a mechanical parlay for that reason.

.
the link that I posted is not a good comparison because it is comparing a (what they call "fair") payout - with no he - to the parlay payout

(I didn't consider that when I first posted it)

a better way to compare would be to compare all the legs after the typical he has been applied

which was not done in the link - but was done by Tony and odiousgambit and Unjon to some extent

the analysis done here is much better than what is in the link from a professional journalist from the Washington Post

Soopoo's points were also very good

what I believe is really happening in a parlay is that bettors are reeled in thinking that they're only risking a little to make a lot - which is technically correct - but

the greater the no. of legs of course, the greater the risk is that the parlay will not score and would require betting more and more parlays to get ahead or get even

and of course, very obvious but worth mentioning -

if you win 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 or 3 or 4 out of 5 of your straight bets of equal amounts you have a nice profit

with the parlays you have a loss

.

Ridiculous +EV today. Some of my boosted bets now are allowing me $100. Plus lots more than usual. Plus bet MGM has the ‘deposit match’ for $250. So $250 becomes $500 after a one time playthrough. It reads like I need to bet $500 to free it all up but past experience tells me it’s only $250. Either way, with offers I just put in $135 worth of +EV bets on their own which count towards this requirement. It won’t be hard to get to $500.
I think if I add up the EV from my 4 main sites today it exceeds $400. Just for pushing a few buttons on my phone!

When needed, I’ve used Tigers / Mariners over 5.5 today. Although it’s two of the best pitchers in baseball, neither has been dominant against the other team specifically.

Carpenter has faced Kirby 9 at bats. He ‘only’ has 5 homers in those 9 at bats!

Quote: unJon

I’ve posted about the parlay HE before and SkinnyTony has it correct. Except that most books shortchange you when you parlay -110 legs (except for the three leg parlay) so it can be worse than a mechanical parlay for that reason.
link to original post

Online most (not all) give you full parlay odds by multiplying the odds on the board. I know that there is one major online book that doesn't do this but I can't remember which one it is.

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: unJon

I’ve posted about the parlay HE before and SkinnyTony has it correct. Except that most books shortchange you when you parlay -110 legs (except for the three leg parlay) so it can be worse than a mechanical parlay for that reason.
link to original post

Online most (not all) give you full parlay odds by multiplying the odds on the board. I know that there is one major online book that doesn't do this but I can't remember which one it is.
link to original post

the bettors who bet in brick and mortar books seem to encounter the shortchanging regularly, while online books don't seem to do this at all from what I can tell and have experienced

Quote: SkinnyTony

The reason the house edge changes is because you've essentially agreed to bet (much) more if you win the first leg.

yes, but the house edge does not change... not on each individual bet . Forgive me for harping on it, I can't help myself. And I can tell you know this. We need a new word. The APE? [apparent parlay's edge]

Quote:

It's the same as the table games player who presses his bets because he's "playing with house money" or some other such nonsense.

Basically, consider a 2-team $100 parlay, made up of coin flips at -110. Half the time you lose your first leg, and have only bet $100. But half the time you win the first leg and are now risking $190.91 on the 2nd game, in addition to the $100 you bet on the first leg. So the 4.54% house edge is calculated in your average total action ($100 50% of the time, and $290.91 50% of the time, which averages to $195.46). So instead of the house edge being 4.55% of $100, it's 45.5% of $195.46, which is $8.89, which is 8.89% of the original $100.

exactly ... if you compare it to your original bet, it *appears* to change the HE. And we all have to admit it is far and away how the bets are done, the bettor make the bet and turns it over to what becomes a black box to do its thing, with the bettor relating it to the original bet as if that was all that was bet.

Quote:

Even if you have an edge on all the bets, you need to be careful. Yes your edge compounds but so does your variance, so your optimal bet size (using Kelly) drops.

good point

Quote:

Of course there are lots of good reasons to bet parlays too:

1. Correlated parlays (as SOOPOO mentions)
2. Getting around betting limits. If they limit you but allow you to bet parlays at the same limits this lets you get more action down.
3. Making your betting action look more square. Important at rec books if you have an edge and are betting big.

I'll add that many enticing offers make you first use a parlay and most often a same game parlay, guess why on the latter.

Quote:

One big downside that isn't mentioned here is that it limits your opportunities to line shop! If the best line on Game 1 is at one book and the best line on Game 2 is at another book (which happens all the time) then by parlaying them you are actually taking a worse line on one of the games. And this applies whether you have an edge or not. Given the multitude of free odds screens available there is no reason not to get the best line available, even if you are just betting for fun without an edge. Just like the basic strategy player who sits at a 6:5 table when there is a 3:2 table in the other pit: long term you are going to lose either way but you may as well take the best odds available and lose as little as possible.

good points

Quote:

As an aside, if you insist on playing NFL sides close to post time, betMGM reduces their juice to 2c or 2.5c lines 1hr before kickoff (4-5c spread). Today they had Philly -7.5 +100 and NYG +7.5 -105. If you are just flipping coins to decide your pick, that's a 1.21% house edge. On my odds screen (which I limit to books that are available to me in my state, plus a couple of sharp ones) that showed up as the best available line on both sides!

I rarely bet NFL sides close to post (I concede that the market is efficient and the closing lines are sharp) but today I couldn't resist. I felt strongly that the line was too high so I bet the Giants +7.5 at -105. I have no clue if I had an edge and I don't make enough of these bets for my data to tell me anything.
link to original post

turned out a nice move

Quote: SOOPOO

LikRed’s analysis is ok for non correlated parlays. I sometimes find correlated events that I do not believe the books take into account enough when setting the odds.

Player points and rebounds in basketball.
Player rushing yards and team winning
Goal scorer and over in hockey

Some more subtle ones I don’t want to publish.
link to original post

I hope I am not publishing what you choose not to publish!

The only one I really like parlays in is baseball, and that is because of something specific to baseball: when a pitcher is having a bad day almost everybody in the opposing lineup is going to get a piece of him. Then when they take him out early he's usually replaced with the guy they call the "mop-up man," and they're going to whack him too. And nobody really can tell when a pitcher is going to have a bad day before it happens.

So a parlay for players hitting home runs that includes players that aren't known as HR hitters, that's got some potential.

Quote: SOOPOO

Ridiculous +EV today. Some of my boosted bets now are allowing me $100. Plus lots more than usual. Plus bet MGM has the ‘deposit match’ for $250. So $250 becomes $500 after a one time playthrough. It reads like I need to bet $500 to free it all up but past experience tells me it’s only $250. Either way, with offers I just put in $135 worth of +EV bets on their own which count towards this requirement. It won’t be hard to get to $500.
I think if I add up the EV from my 4 main sites today it exceeds $400. Just for pushing a few buttons on my phone!

When needed, I’ve used Tigers / Mariners over 5.5 today. Although it’s two of the best pitchers in baseball, neither has been dominant against the other team specifically.

Carpenter has faced Kirby 9 at bats. He ‘only’ has 5 homers in those 9 at bats!
link to original post

BetMGM bonuses usually have the playthrough requirement as a multiplier on the bonus amount, not the whole amount.

100% up to $250 is amazing. They must really like you. They absolutely hate me; I'm not completely sure why. I beat them out of a bit of money when they first came to my state, but it was a grand total of $1000 or $1200 or something over the course of a football season. And I wasn't doing anything particularly sharp (other than the Wong teasers; maybe that's what caught their attention). It's just so little money though. They haven't limited or banned me but I'm pretty much completely cut off from promos. I'm not even eligible to play those crappy free games you can play to win a small bet boost. The only thing that they give me is 5% bet boosts with a max bet of $5. The equivalent of a $0.25 bonus.

I sometimes buy the betMGM gift cards. They come with a $10 bonus and have a $5 activation fee, and a 5x playthrough (5x the bonus, so $50). So I can pay $55 for a $60 bet. It doesn't sound like much but it has the effect of moving a line from -110 to +108. And I can buy them with a credit card from Walmart, worth about 2% back. (I've actually done that quite a bit; that might also be why they don't like me) And even better, the $100 cards have a $20 bonus and only a $7 fee (paying $107 for a $120 bet has the effect of moving a -110 line to +114). Those are a bit hard to find though; when I see them I stock up. I don't want to stock up too much though because I'm worried I'll get limited or banned at some point and be stuck with cards I can't use.

Quote: SkinnyTony

They must really like you. They absolutely hate me; I'm not completely sure why. I beat them out of a bit of money when they first came to my state, but it was a grand total of $1000 or $1200 or something over the course of a football season.
link to original post

thank you. I had the same experience taking from them a few hundred, I'd say about $600

looking back on it, I wouldn't again withdraw the money like I did

Here are my college bets this weekend. Hopefully, I do a little better than last week.

Rutgers +11.5
Missouri +3.5
Pittsburgh + 10.5
Iowa State -2.5
Indiana +7.5
Northwestern + 21.5
Louisiana Monroe -2.5
Wisconsin ML +135