Thread Rating:

billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 289
  • Posts: 19379
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 3rd, 2025 at 11:02:39 AM permalink
The BJs and the Yankees ended the season with identical records, but the BJs won the season series8-5.
The BJs have home-field advantage, having the first two games at home, and would also be at home if the series goes the distance.
The Yankees are favored, despite that.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 3rd, 2025 at 11:12:07 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post



I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post



Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post



Oh maybe we are on different sites?

On FanDuel they have a "touchdown jackpot" where you make a $5 anytime TD bet. The give away $2M in bonus bets. $1M is split between everyone who picked the first TD scorer, and $1M is split between everyone who picked the last TD scorer. If the same player scores the first and last TDs of the game you win twice. And everyone only has 1 TD jackpot token to apply.

So there is an interesting strategy because if you take a "popular" player you will get paid less if you win. In the first game of the year I had Javonte and he scored the first TD of the game; it paid pretty well, I assume because most people were on Saquon. So there's a balance between who is likely to score vs who you think everyone else will pick. In the first game I intentionally avoided Saquon because of all the hype around him.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5021
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
October 3rd, 2025 at 11:14:35 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post



I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post



Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post



If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 3rd, 2025 at 11:51:16 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

The BJs and the Yankees ended the season with identical records, but the BJs won the season series8-5.
The BJs have home-field advantage, having the first two games at home, and would also be at home if the series goes the distance.
The Yankees are favored, despite that.
link to original post



I was looking at that. Jays are favored in the 1st game but Yankees are favored in the series.

FWIW (probably not much) ESPN analytics has the yankees as a slight (52-48) favorite to win to win game 1.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 289
  • Posts: 19379
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 3rd, 2025 at 1:44:55 PM permalink
The Yankees will choose between two starters. Luis Gill was last year's ROY and has electric stuff, but missed most of the season and has been walking too many people. Will Warren wasn't even in the Yankees' plans for 2026, but injuries thrust him into the rotation. He had a couple of outstanding starts and a few real stinkers. Whoever gets the start will be on a short leash, but if the Yankees can steal game one, they'll be in great shape.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 5734
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
Thanked by
odiousgambit
October 3rd, 2025 at 2:42:01 PM permalink
Its hard to be a great team if your starting staff consists of one ace (Max Fried) a second effective pitcher (Rodon) and a bunch of unreliable hit-or-miss starters.

For the post-season a team needs at least three starters who are reliable and effective. The 2025 Yankees resemble those Braves teams from the 1950s with Aaron and Matthews - they hit a lot of home runs but the pitching was Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
AutomaticMonkey
AutomaticMonkey
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 995
Joined: Sep 30, 2024
October 3rd, 2025 at 3:34:59 PM permalink
I felt the same way about the Yankees pitching earlier in the year, with Cole and Schmidt out for the season and Gil TBD we just didn't have the pitching to win in the postseason. But with Gil coming back and pitching well enough and then Schlittler coming out of nowhere, and then picking up Bednar as a closer we now have a staff that might not be the best but close enough, and probably good enough given Yankees offense. When last year's RoY is your 4th starter you have pitching.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 12045
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 3rd, 2025 at 3:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post



I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post



Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post



Oh maybe we are on different sites?

On FanDuel they have a "touchdown jackpot" where you make a $5 anytime TD bet. The give away $2M in bonus bets. $1M is split between everyone who picked the first TD scorer, and $1M is split between everyone who picked the last TD scorer. If the same player scores the first and last TDs of the game you win twice. And everyone only has 1 TD jackpot token to apply.

So there is an interesting strategy because if you take a "popular" player you will get paid less if you win. In the first game of the year I had Javonte and he scored the first TD of the game; it paid pretty well, I assume because most people were on Saquon. So there's a balance between who is likely to score vs who you think everyone else will pick. In the first game I intentionally avoided Saquon because of all the hype around him.
link to original post



I do that one. Had McCaffrey so won the few dollars but he didn’t score 1st or last TD. My offer that I got the $226 in free bets is on DK. First $26 bet made….. lost…
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 3rd, 2025 at 3:50:21 PM permalink
It also looks like Bo Bichette won't be back for this series. Though, that won't be official until tomorrow.

In football news, I had a profit boost (which is worth more with high odds, same as a bonus bet) and I couldn't resist Vandy on the money line. I got it at +420 (boosted from +320). It's a small bet (the boosts they give me are always limited to $10). I don't really expect it to win but I'm a little surprised that the spread is so high in that game.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 289
  • Posts: 19379
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 3rd, 2025 at 6:00:58 PM permalink
Quote: AutomaticMonkey

I felt the same way about the Yankees pitching earlier in the year, with Cole and Schmidt out for the season and Gil TBD we just didn't have the pitching to win in the postseason. But with Gil coming back and pitching well enough and then Schlittler coming out of nowhere, and then picking up Bednar as a closer we now have a staff that might not be the best but close enough, and probably good enough given Yankees offense. When last year's RoY is your 4th starter you have pitching.
link to original post



There is no great team in the AL. The Yankees' pitching is at least as good as that of any other remaining AL team, and they have, by far, the best offense. If the right Devon Williams shows up, so much the better.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AutomaticMonkey
AutomaticMonkey
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 995
Joined: Sep 30, 2024
October 3rd, 2025 at 9:32:36 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

I felt the same way about the Yankees pitching earlier in the year, with Cole and Schmidt out for the season and Gil TBD we just didn't have the pitching to win in the postseason. But with Gil coming back and pitching well enough and then Schlittler coming out of nowhere, and then picking up Bednar as a closer we now have a staff that might not be the best but close enough, and probably good enough given Yankees offense. When last year's RoY is your 4th starter you have pitching.
link to original post



There is no great team in the AL. The Yankees' pitching is at least as good as that of any other remaining AL team, and they have, by far, the best offense. If the right Devon Williams shows up, so much the better.
link to original post



Williams is fine, as long as he is not both closing and wearing a Yankee uniform. Someone needs to convince him it's the 6th and we're up by 8 runs when they send him out there to close, and he'll do well.

That's part of what makes baseball so intriguing. No one knows why things like that are the way they are. I argue a lot on Yankee fan sites, everybody hates Boone, but people who are a bit further removed from the game than I am don't realize that the most important job of a manager is to keep these guys, with their often oversized personalities and ridiculous emotional travails from having breakdowns. They can be like a busload of Girl Scouts sometimes. But if the manager is doing his job well nobody outside of the clubhouse will know anything about it.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 14070
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
odiousgambit
October 4th, 2025 at 7:48:08 AM permalink
I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 12045
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 4th, 2025 at 9:59:00 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post



I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 14070
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
unJon
October 4th, 2025 at 10:35:58 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post



I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post



Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 12045
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 4th, 2025 at 2:19:01 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post



I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post



Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.
link to original post



I’m going to use this post to share my wins so far today.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 14070
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
October 4th, 2025 at 2:46:46 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post



I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post



Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.
link to original post



I’m going to use this post to share my wins so far today.
link to original post



I am declaring that my account was hijacked as I would never post that many terrible picks.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 14070
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
October 4th, 2025 at 6:23:31 PM permalink
Anyone else watching the UNLV vs Wyoming game? There is a surprising amount of snow for October 4th.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 4th, 2025 at 6:59:30 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post



I tailed you. Got Oklahoma over 53.5. Parlayed with Texas -4.5. I’m hoping your 6.5 is a typo, or you are getting + odds.

There are no ties in college anymore. What does +0.5 even mean? It’s called’ moneyline’ now.
link to original post



Sadly, my -6.5 number was correct on Texas. I bet it days ago. I also added a little more at -4.5. A lot of lines went against me today so instead of accepting that I don't know what I am doing, I added more money to them.
link to original post



I’m going to use this post to share my wins so far today.
link to original post



I was having the same type of day until the Miami game 🤣🤣

But I won Miami 1st half money line (boosted to +100)

And I have Miami 1st half -2.5 parlayed with Miami full game ML (looking very good) and Miami ML parlayed with under 54.5 (looking good). Miami is currently up 28-3 late in the 3rd.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 14070
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
October 4th, 2025 at 8:02:15 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I was out of the country for the last three weeks of college football but I am moving forward with my infallible strategy, lol.

My only big bet, 3 units, is Oklahoma over 53.5. Oklahoma is a 45.5 favorite.

Also: (1 unit)
Oklahoma St + 20.5
UCF +3.5
Texas -6.5
Syracuse +16.5
Washington -5.5
Boise St +18.5
Iowa St +0.5
Wisconsin +16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
link to original post



I am embarrassed.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 4th, 2025 at 11:55:23 PM permalink
Ok so the Jays stomped the Yanks in Game 1.

The Yankees are favored tomorrow with Fried pitching but the real question is how many innings will he go? The Jays did pretty well against the Yankees bullpen today, and the Jays bullpen didn't give anything up (and even got them out of a bases loaded jam)

My Jays series bet is looking a little better but the key to the series is how well they do when the Yankees top starting pitchers play.
AutomaticMonkey
AutomaticMonkey
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 995
Joined: Sep 30, 2024
October 5th, 2025 at 2:47:22 AM permalink
Quote: SkinnyTony

Ok so the Jays stomped the Yanks in Game 1.

The Yankees are favored tomorrow with Fried pitching but the real question is how many innings will he go? The Jays did pretty well against the Yankees bullpen today, and the Jays bullpen didn't give anything up (and even got them out of a bases loaded jam)

My Jays series bet is looking a little better but the key to the series is how well they do when the Yankees top starting pitchers play.
link to original post



Yankees may have done that trick where you put your #5 against their #1 in a semi-sacrifice. They never hit Gausman. Then assuming the rotations are equal they have the advantage for the next 4 games.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5021
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
October 5th, 2025 at 4:22:14 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post



I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post



Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post



If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.
link to original post



That worked out well for me!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 12045
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 5th, 2025 at 1:38:12 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post



I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post



Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post



If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.
link to original post



That worked out well for me!
link to original post



Ghost parlay worked perfectly. I won 2/3 and got +221. So won $110.

I’m doing great today. More than making up for dismal college picks. Over Vikings. Cowboys -2.5. Texans -1.5. They all seemed ‘easy’.
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 5th, 2025 at 9:43:41 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.

And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.

On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.

Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…

I like when fun and profitable meet….
link to original post



I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
link to original post



Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.

Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.

Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.

I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
link to original post



If you are looking for underdogs, I think Alex Pereira is great value at +210 (UFC fight Saturday). I make it close a pick ‘em.
link to original post



That worked out well for me!
link to original post



Ghost parlay worked perfectly. I won 2/3 and got +221. So won $110.

I’m doing great today. More than making up for dismal college picks. Over Vikings. Cowboys -2.5. Texans -1.5. They all seemed ‘easy’.
link to original post



I managed to go 0-3 on my teaser. The heavy favorites lost outright and the Giants were not close. Parlaying the opposite picks would have paid pretty well.

The New England / Buffalo game was interesting. The point spread and the money line did not line up. NE +350 was widely available (I even saw over +370 at a sharper offshore book with less vig) but the spread was only 7.5 (and at the sharper books you had to pay excess vig bet the Pats +7.5, indicating that the Bills should cover -7.5 slightly less than half the time). +350 is too high of a money line for the underdog there. You can get a 2-team 7-point teaser for -130, which works out to only -300 per leg. My data tells me that if the spread and total were accurate (including the vigs) a fair money line would have been +269. I didn't believe it (especially since the sharper books had even higher money lines) so I didn't bet it. I'm not sure what I'll do next time I see something like that.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 12045
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 7th, 2025 at 3:31:50 PM permalink
Still alive in $1,000,000 survivor contest. Entry fee was $10, which I got for free.

Used Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Lions, and Cardinals. Going with Packers this week. If contest ended today I’d get around $40. So probably 25,000 contestants remain. I think I’m in decent shape as I’ve used the Cardinals and Dolphins.

Love the Cowboys over the Panthers. The Panthers are just bad. Had Demercado not forgotten to carry the football into the end zone, this game is a 7 point spread. Somehow people think Panthers are a competitive team. Cowboys only laying 3.5.

Did some work on ghost parlay. DK pays +595 on a 3 leg parlay with all games -110. It pays +264 on 2 leg parlays for -110 games. Assuming the -110 games are 50/50 propositions, then the +EV is massive.

You hit 3 out of 3, 1/8 of the time.
You hit 2 out of 3, 3/8 of the time.
You hit either 0 or 1 out of 3, 1/2 the time.

Assume $100 bet.
1/8 win $595. +$74
3/8 win $264. +99
1/2 lose $100. -50

So average win per $100 bet is $123. That’s not return. That’s WIN. EV around +123%.

I won’t be surprised if the promotion is ended, and the guy who proposed it is fired. DK stock been plummeting since they started this promotion.
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 7th, 2025 at 5:05:59 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Still alive in $1,000,000 survivor contest. Entry fee was $10, which I got for free.

Used Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Lions, and Cardinals. Going with Packers this week. If contest ended today I’d get around $40. So probably 25,000 contestants remain. I think I’m in decent shape as I’ve used the Cardinals and Dolphins.

Love the Cowboys over the Panthers. The Panthers are just bad. Had Demercado not forgotten to carry the football into the end zone, this game is a 7 point spread. Somehow people think Panthers are a competitive team. Cowboys only laying 3.5.

Did some work on ghost parlay. DK pays +595 on a 3 leg parlay with all games -110. It pays +264 on 2 leg parlays for -110 games. Assuming the -110 games are 50/50 propositions, then the +EV is massive.

You hit 3 out of 3, 1/8 of the time.
You hit 2 out of 3, 3/8 of the time.
You hit either 0 or 1 out of 3, 1/2 the time.

Assume $100 bet.
1/8 win $595. +$74
3/8 win $264. +99
1/2 lose $100. -50

So average win per $100 bet is $123. That’s not return. That’s WIN. EV around +123%.

I won’t be surprised if the promotion is ended, and the guy who proposed it is fired. DK stock been plummeting since they started this promotion.
link to original post



All the books got crushed on the first few weeks of NFL. The squares love to make parlays of several heavy money line favorites. And all the big favorites won up until this week. The books will have done well this week with so many big upsets.

What does Dermercado have to do with Cowboys / Panthers? Are you confusing Panthers and Titans? Panthers are a strange team; I agree they are not great but somehow they crushed the Falcons. They also had a big comeback against Miami but that's less surprising. The Titans are complete trash; probably the worst team in the NFL.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 14070
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
October 7th, 2025 at 5:38:20 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Still alive in $1,000,000 survivor contest. Entry fee was $10, which I got for free.

Used Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Lions, and Cardinals. Going with Packers this week. If contest ended today I’d get around $40. So probably 25,000 contestants remain. I think I’m in decent shape as I’ve used the Cardinals and Dolphins.

Love the Cowboys over the Panthers. The Panthers are just bad. Had Demercado not forgotten to carry the football into the end zone, this game is a 7 point spread. Somehow people think Panthers are a competitive team. Cowboys only laying 3.5.

Did some work on ghost parlay. DK pays +595 on a 3 leg parlay with all games -110. It pays +264 on 2 leg parlays for -110 games. Assuming the -110 games are 50/50 propositions, then the +EV is massive.

You hit 3 out of 3, 1/8 of the time.
You hit 2 out of 3, 3/8 of the time.
You hit either 0 or 1 out of 3, 1/2 the time.

Assume $100 bet.
1/8 win $595. +$74
3/8 win $264. +99
1/2 lose $100. -50

So average win per $100 bet is $123. That’s not return. That’s WIN. EV around +123%.

I won’t be surprised if the promotion is ended, and the guy who proposed it is fired. DK stock been plummeting since they started this promotion.
link to original post



Can you see which teams the other participants have already used? If so, use that information when choosing your picks.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jul 22, 2025
October 7th, 2025 at 5:48:40 PM permalink
Man Vlade hit another homer against the Yankees. It's amazing what good old fashioned hatred will do for a player's performance.

Stats are great but don't bet against a family vendetta.
AutomaticMonkey
AutomaticMonkey
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 995
Joined: Sep 30, 2024
October 7th, 2025 at 9:16:06 PM permalink
Quote: SkinnyTony

Man Vlade hit another homer against the Yankees. It's amazing what good old fashioned hatred will do for a player's performance.

Stats are great but don't bet against a family vendetta.
link to original post



Wasn't enough. The Blue Jays sent Justin Bieber out there to pitch? I know Canada is proud of him, but what were they thinking?

Walking out of G2E on a lark I bet on the game. Figured something like this was going to happen so I took an Over at 9.5, Yankees over 6.5, and Yankees by exactly 3 because they have a pretty good closer in Bednar now and he's going to be in to shut it down if the Yankees have a big lead that is reduced to 3 late in the game. Got lucky with that one. Only one I missed was a parlay for Rice and Stanton to HR.
  • Jump to: