Sports betting chatter
June 24th, 2025 at 11:43:50 AM
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Quote: billryanI'm not sure why anyone would believe a word he says, but Im sure his stories are great
I'm not sure why anyone would believe a word you say
and your stories aren't even remotely close to being great
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 24th, 2025 at 12:12:25 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanI'm not sure why anyone would believe a word he says, but Im sure his stories are great
I'm not sure why anyone would believe a word you say
and your stories aren't even remotely close to being great
.
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Okay.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 24th, 2025 at 3:41:38 PM
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SOOPOO loves Braves over Mets today. Montas was an abject failure in his injury rehab assignments. Braves pitcher was dismal UNTIL last few games.
I won a little over $5 on a DK free pool. I love free money.
Detroit Tigers tonight is free money.
I won a little over $5 on a DK free pool. I love free money.
Detroit Tigers tonight is free money.
June 24th, 2025 at 4:03:11 PM
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Montas is the poster boy of everything wrong with baseball. He's got a 12+ ERA in the minors, but is making too much money to keep in the minors. In a decade of pitching, he's hit 150 innings once.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 25th, 2025 at 3:44:36 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOSOOPOO loves Braves over Mets today. Montas was an abject failure in his injury rehab assignments. Braves pitcher was dismal UNTIL last few games.
I won a little over $5 on a DK free pool. I love free money.
Detroit Tigers tonight is free money.
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So….. I won last night as my parlays started with two wins…. but NOT because I actually ‘knew’ anything! Montas was GREAT for the Mets, but their bullpen just kept walking and hitting everyone. And in the other game, I expected Skubal to be his usual shut down self. He gave up 4 early runs but Detroit scored double figures.
June 25th, 2025 at 5:03:08 AM
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So in case you missed it, I’m getting a kick out of betting the PGA because up till now the question “will the winner be Sheffler or the Field?” is in the air . it reminded me of when Tiger Woods was at his peak, some people asked the same thing. It probably wasn’t really a thing to bet on back then either, but I am having fun betting on it anyway. Nope, not +EV
This week it's the Rocket Classic. Morikawa is the most favored player, Scheffler is not playing. This makes the field look even better I guess.
What the hell, today I am betting the same amount on each of these to win, skipping Morikawa. [he is +1300 just for the record, as I write this]
So Morikawa or the Field? Some of the Field ha ha
Bradly +1900
Cantlay +1700
Griffin +2200
Matsuyama +3000
Hall +3500
KIm +3200
Young +2700
Clark +3700
Greyserman +3700
Clanton +3700
Mitchell +5000
Fitzpatrick +3700
Thompson +3700
Bhatia +4500
Lee +5000
Gotter +5500
The least paying, Cantlay at +1700, easily covers the rest bet. The rest of the field is paying better than +5000 but I am reluctant to add any
This week it's the Rocket Classic. Morikawa is the most favored player, Scheffler is not playing. This makes the field look even better I guess.
What the hell, today I am betting the same amount on each of these to win, skipping Morikawa. [he is +1300 just for the record, as I write this]
So Morikawa or the Field? Some of the Field ha ha
Bradly +1900
Cantlay +1700
Griffin +2200
Matsuyama +3000
Hall +3500
KIm +3200
Young +2700
Clark +3700
Greyserman +3700
Clanton +3700
Mitchell +5000
Fitzpatrick +3700
Thompson +3700
Bhatia +4500
Lee +5000
Gotter +5500
The least paying, Cantlay at +1700, easily covers the rest bet. The rest of the field is paying better than +5000 but I am reluctant to add any
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 25th, 2025 at 8:44:11 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitSo in case you missed it, I’m getting a kick out of betting the PGA because up till now the question “will the winner be Sheffler or the Field?” is in the air . it reminded me of when Tiger Woods was at his peak, some people asked the same thing. It probably wasn’t really a thing to bet on back then either, but I am having fun betting on it anyway. Nope, not +EV
This week it's the Rocket Classic. Morikawa is the most favored player, Scheffler is not playing. This makes the field look even better I guess.
What the hell, today I am betting the same amount on each of these to win, skipping Morikawa. [he is +1300 just for the record, as I write this]
So Morikawa or the Field? Some of the Field ha ha
Bradly +1900
Cantlay +1700
Griffin +2200
Matsuyama +3000
Hall +3500
KIm +3200
Young +2700
Clark +3700
Greyserman +3700
Clanton +3700
Mitchell +5000
Fitzpatrick +3700
Thompson +3700
Bhatia +4500
Lee +5000
Gotter +5500
The least paying, Cantlay at +1700, easily covers the rest bet. The rest of the field is paying better than +5000 but I am reluctant to add any
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Good luck! Do I understand correctly….? You are betting, say $10, on each of the 16 golfers listed to win? So if Cantlay wins, you have risked $160, for a total win of $20? But if any of golfers 17-154, or the favorite, win you lose your entire $160?
It almost feels like you are betting 33 numbers on a roulette spin in which you are very likely to win but of course will get smoked in the long run.
For whatever it’s worth, I got boosted odds on Garrick Higgo top 10. I think it was around 10-1. He did win something already this year, and I won a lot on him in the past at long odds.
Edit. It was 16-1 boosted.
SOOPOO likes the Brewers (although it’s hard to get rich betting against Paul Skenes). And the Rockies getting 2.5 runs against the Dodgers.
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Jun 25, 2025
June 25th, 2025 at 9:57:28 AM
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correct evaluation. I really want Sheffler vs the Field to keep this up
I'll look at Higgo. I think I can also make a boosted bet and haven't done that yet
notice it isn't a consistent increase in payoff altho I took them one at a time in sequence. I think they started out as increasing payoff and that's how the lines moved for each, so keep an eye on Cantlay and Young too
I'll look at Higgo. I think I can also make a boosted bet and haven't done that yet
notice it isn't a consistent increase in payoff altho I took them one at a time in sequence. I think they started out as increasing payoff and that's how the lines moved for each, so keep an eye on Cantlay and Young too
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 25th, 2025 at 12:27:54 PM
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Morikawa fired his caddie, hopefully this distraction is a good sign for taking some of the field
https://nypost.com/2025/06/25/sports/collin-morikawa-splits-with-another-caddie-after-five-tournaments/
https://nypost.com/2025/06/25/sports/collin-morikawa-splits-with-another-caddie-after-five-tournaments/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 26th, 2025 at 5:06:36 PM
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Most of the leaders not from your list.
Those who golf might appreciate this.
Aldrich Potgeiter had 8 ‘3’’s on his first 10 holes. That is flat out ridiculous. 2 par 3’s, 6 par 4’s, 2 par 5’s.
His two 4’s included a missed 11 foot eagle putt and a missed 12 foot birdie putt. He cooled off and ‘only’ shot 10 under par. Tied for the lead.
Those who golf might appreciate this.
Aldrich Potgeiter had 8 ‘3’’s on his first 10 holes. That is flat out ridiculous. 2 par 3’s, 6 par 4’s, 2 par 5’s.
His two 4’s included a missed 11 foot eagle putt and a missed 12 foot birdie putt. He cooled off and ‘only’ shot 10 under par. Tied for the lead.
June 27th, 2025 at 3:52:22 AM
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it's early
golf seems to be a sport where you have strong performers at the top and a huge field barking at their heels at all times... some rising some falling
golf seems to be a sport where you have strong performers at the top and a huge field barking at their heels at all times... some rising some falling
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 28th, 2025 at 5:31:58 AM
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Rocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 29th, 2025 at 4:45:26 AM
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It's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
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That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jun 29, 2025
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 29th, 2025 at 2:57:00 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitIt's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
link to original post
That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
link to original post
Greyserman has putt to win at at 37-1 for you!
SOOPOO got a bet in on Porgeiter after second round at 25-1. He just hit a putt I can not describe as a choke. But he won’t be a ‘nobody’ for much longer. He’s 20, and freakishly long. Typing live,…. Potgeiter has 4 feet or so for par to get into playoff.
June 29th, 2025 at 2:58:43 PM
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DK has pick a MLB player to hit a home run offer, full second chance on loss. with any bet. Only $5 but *daily* which adds up ... whole rest of season I think
I can't win on the first bet to save my life since it started. Second chance not going that good either. But I have faith this will mean some money in the long run
I can't win on the first bet to save my life since it started. Second chance not going that good either. But I have faith this will mean some money in the long run
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 29th, 2025 at 3:02:32 PM
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froze it before he teed off and getting back to it now. gotta root for G-man but almost could root for PortgeitherQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitIt's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
link to original post
That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
link to original post
Greyserman has putt to win at at 37-1 for you!
SOOPOO got a bet in on Porgeiter after second round at 25-1. He just hit a putt I can not describe as a choke. But he won’t be a ‘nobody’ for much longer. He’s 20, and freakishly long. Typing live,…. Potgeiter has 4 feet or so for par to get into playoff.
link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 30th, 2025 at 1:37:15 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitfroze it before he teed off and getting back to it now. gotta root for G-man but almost could root for PortgeitherQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitIt's gotten worse, this has been a tournament for dark horses to shine for sureQuote: odiousgambitRocket classic has a leader board with a million players at -11 and the leader at -14, not exactly out of reach.
I'll beat Soopoo in reporting that I don't have any of the current leaders, and Morikawa is not out of it either. Sir, you need to quit with putting the jynx on me ha ha. But I might get the last laugh
link to original post
That Potgeiter would still be killing it at this point? Usually the ability of the good players to 'bring it' day after day will separate them .... So I'd have been quite ready to bet 'no'. But there is still plenty of golf to play
link to original post
Greyserman has putt to win at at 37-1 for you!
SOOPOO got a bet in on Porgeiter after second round at 25-1. He just hit a putt I can not describe as a choke. But he won’t be a ‘nobody’ for much longer. He’s 20, and freakishly long. Typing live,…. Potgeiter has 4 feet or so for par to get into playoff.
link to original post
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They both missed some makeable, but not gimme, putts. Too bad I only bet $1!
If get a boost offer this week I’m going for either Thorbjornson or Potgeiter to repeat.
July 1st, 2025 at 3:45:09 AM
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I'm thinking that Potgeiter , at least, maybe some others, got slipped in under the oddsmakers radar and some people made some nice money on this ... sure would have been nice to have been in on it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 1st, 2025 at 5:47:25 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI'm thinking that Potgeiter , at least, maybe some others, got slipped in under the oddsmakers radar and some people made some nice money on this ... sure would have been nice to have been in on it
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What do you mean by this? You think there’s information about Potgeiter’s chances of winning this that the odds makers didn’t know but some inside people did?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
July 1st, 2025 at 7:00:34 AM
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Quote: unJonQuote: odiousgambitI'm thinking that Potgeiter , at least, maybe some others, got slipped in under the oddsmakers radar and some people made some nice money on this ... sure would have been nice to have been in on it
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What do you mean by this? You think there’s information about Potgeiter’s chances of winning this that the odds makers didn’t know but some inside people did?
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We’ll, maybe, sort of….. I watched a good part of the tournament. There were many shots where the longest hitter had a HUGE advantage over a player who can’t hit it as far. Not just the distance between the lengths. Some holes required a 300 yard CARRY to clear a bunker/tree/hazzard. Potgeiter would launch his 310, then with roll get to 350. The shorter hitting pro would thus have to avoid the bunker, often requiring him to lay up short of it. So the final result would be an 80 yard difference. I’d say some ‘inside people’ would be more aware of the course set up than the ‘oddsmakers’. The oddsmakers take name recognition into account more than course set up for sure.
Now….. I was unaware of this angle before I made my bet. I picked him because he was around the lead and had nearly already won two tournaments at his not even legal to drink a beer age. I think he will ascend to top 10 in the world.
July 1st, 2025 at 9:13:13 AM
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He was +5500 or even more before setting off. Unjon, maybe the feeling was he had been just a flash in the panQuote: SOOPOOI think he will ascend to top 10 in the world.
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I just wonder
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 1st, 2025 at 11:50:30 AM
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I saw that Wilyer Abreu it both a Grand Slam and an Inside the park home run in yesterdays game. I don't know if that have ever been done before in an MLB game.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
July 2nd, 2025 at 4:46:13 AM
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Potgieter getting dissed again, I can get +3500 to win and even +170 to be in top 20, and can boost it
I have to admit whenever I've doubted the oddsmakers, they've proven me wrong every time, but I will be putting some money on top 20 and probably other spots
I have to admit whenever I've doubted the oddsmakers, they've proven me wrong every time, but I will be putting some money on top 20 and probably other spots
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 4th, 2025 at 5:28:07 PM
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It had to happen…. You can now bet on the results of single pitches. A pitcher threw two pitches yards out of the strike zone…. it happens…. but….. there was ‘unusual betting action’ on those results…. Luis Ortiz has been suspended pending an investigation……. He’s a fringe major leaguer making less than $800k so certainly could be tempted to throw two ‘balls’ in specific instances for some extra $$$.
I wonder if the bookies have adequately included, as an example, the chances of a specific pitch being a ball during ‘unintentional intentional walks’ of players like Judge and Ohtani?
I wonder if the bookies have adequately included, as an example, the chances of a specific pitch being a ball during ‘unintentional intentional walks’ of players like Judge and Ohtani?
July 4th, 2025 at 7:52:46 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOIt had to happen…. You can now bet on the results of single pitches. A pitcher threw two pitches yards out of the strike zone…. it happens…. but….. there was ‘unusual betting action’ on those results…. Luis Ortiz has been suspended pending an investigation……. He’s a fringe major leaguer making less than $800k so certainly could be tempted to throw two ‘balls’ in specific instances for some extra $$$.
I wonder if the bookies have adequately included, as an example, the chances of a specific pitch being a ball during ‘unintentional intentional walks’ of players like Judge and Ohtani?
link to original post
You'd think if he was on the take he'd make it less obvious. If he was on the take, AND throw a couple way outside, then he's an idiot.
July 9th, 2025 at 5:40:40 AM
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This week’s Scottish Open brings the question, will it be Scheffler or the Field? So I am betting on the Field, ‘anybody but Scheffler or a dark horse’. I went further into the field this time, so some bets will only hedge against loss.
I have the below 24, approximately in order of who pays best if to win . I quit selecting them if they pay 100:1 or more [for obvious reason], except for Kim, who I couldn’t resist at 100:1. But I think it’s more than obvious now that dark horses can and will emerge. Not to mention Scheffler winning.
You have to get to Aberg, coming up from the bottom, before one of the below winning will pay enough to cover the losses on the others. So the idea is to hedge against loss with the other ones. What Mcilroy is paying stinks enough I almost didn’t include him, so Scheffler or Mcilroy winning both will be bad news. The rest either have me coming out nice or losing almost nothing [and I’m betting very little anyway]. I will beat Soopoo to the point that this is not +EV but just for fun!!
Kim, Spaun, Detry, Greyserman, English, Conners, Hojgaard, Clark, McNealy, Rai, Straka, Hall, Fox, Scott, Fitzpatrick, Burns, Thomas, Hovland, Aberg, MacIntyre, Schauffele, Morikawa, Fleetwood, McIlroy
I have the below 24, approximately in order of who pays best if to win . I quit selecting them if they pay 100:1 or more [for obvious reason], except for Kim, who I couldn’t resist at 100:1. But I think it’s more than obvious now that dark horses can and will emerge. Not to mention Scheffler winning.
You have to get to Aberg, coming up from the bottom, before one of the below winning will pay enough to cover the losses on the others. So the idea is to hedge against loss with the other ones. What Mcilroy is paying stinks enough I almost didn’t include him, so Scheffler or Mcilroy winning both will be bad news. The rest either have me coming out nice or losing almost nothing [and I’m betting very little anyway]. I will beat Soopoo to the point that this is not +EV but just for fun!!
Kim, Spaun, Detry, Greyserman, English, Conners, Hojgaard, Clark, McNealy, Rai, Straka, Hall, Fox, Scott, Fitzpatrick, Burns, Thomas, Hovland, Aberg, MacIntyre, Schauffele, Morikawa, Fleetwood, McIlroy
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 13th, 2025 at 7:15:57 AM
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"Scheffler or the Field?" ... that question has not been holding up, I might drop it.
Only thing is, for my wife and I watching the golf together, it seems to add a lot of interest and is worth the insignificant-in-scale -EV nature of it. It also supports my argument to my wife to quit worrying about my gambling since I emphasize how little I commit heh heh
I can tell at a glance which bets have a chance now since they will let me cash out on them .... Mcilroy , Fitzpatrick, Straka, and Clark . Cashing out? not interested, nothing at stake anyway
Scheffler is only 3 strokes behind at the moment. If you still fancy him, he pays 33 to 1
Only thing is, for my wife and I watching the golf together, it seems to add a lot of interest and is worth the insignificant-in-scale -EV nature of it. It also supports my argument to my wife to quit worrying about my gambling since I emphasize how little I commit heh heh
I can tell at a glance which bets have a chance now since they will let me cash out on them .... Mcilroy , Fitzpatrick, Straka, and Clark . Cashing out? not interested, nothing at stake anyway
Scheffler is only 3 strokes behind at the moment. If you still fancy him, he pays 33 to 1
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 13th, 2025 at 1:23:12 PM
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Quote: odiousgambit"Scheffler or the Field?" ... that question has not been holding up, I might drop it.
Only thing is, for my wife and I watching the golf together, it seems to add a lot of interest and is worth the insignificant-in-scale -EV nature of it. It also supports my argument to my wife to quit worrying about my gambling since I emphasize how little I commit heh heh
Holy cow, I am so jealous. I have never heard of a couple watching golf together.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
July 13th, 2025 at 5:17:42 PM
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she's the golfer
I've kept up with golf solely due to others I've known who had an interest
she also likes hockey, don't know why, but other people have pointed out that I'm lucky to not have to fight over the remote when sports are on, generally, almost all sports I have an interest in, she at least has a passing interest. Neither of us follow basketball now
I've kept up with golf solely due to others I've known who had an interest
she also likes hockey, don't know why, but other people have pointed out that I'm lucky to not have to fight over the remote when sports are on, generally, almost all sports I have an interest in, she at least has a passing interest. Neither of us follow basketball now
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 14th, 2025 at 12:21:03 PM
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Found this tasty morsel.
Was able to get Chisholm to heat Caminero 1st round at +120. Was able to get Caminero (boosted) to beat Chisholm TOTAL at +108.
Both are not expected to see a second round.
So $50 on Caminero wins $54
$46 on Chisholm wins $55
So win $12 if Caminero wins. $5 if Chisholm wins.
I can lose it all…. if Caminero beats Chisholm first round, both qualify for 2nd round, and Chisholm ends up beating Caminero overall.
I can win it all if the opposite occurs.
Also, the ‘fair line’ of total HRs is around 240. I got under 238.5 at + 140.
Also got Raleigh to win it all at +470.
Was able to get Chisholm to heat Caminero 1st round at +120. Was able to get Caminero (boosted) to beat Chisholm TOTAL at +108.
Both are not expected to see a second round.
So $50 on Caminero wins $54
$46 on Chisholm wins $55
So win $12 if Caminero wins. $5 if Chisholm wins.
I can lose it all…. if Caminero beats Chisholm first round, both qualify for 2nd round, and Chisholm ends up beating Caminero overall.
I can win it all if the opposite occurs.
Also, the ‘fair line’ of total HRs is around 240. I got under 238.5 at + 140.
Also got Raleigh to win it all at +470.
July 15th, 2025 at 4:56:56 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOFound this tasty morsel.
Was able to get Chisholm to heat Caminero 1st round at +120. Was able to get Caminero (boosted) to beat Chisholm TOTAL at +108.
Both are not expected to see a second round.
So $50 on Caminero wins $54
$46 on Chisholm wins $55
So win $12 if Caminero wins. $5 if Chisholm wins.
I can lose it all…. if Caminero beats Chisholm first round, both qualify for 2nd round, and Chisholm ends up beating Caminero overall.
I can win it all if the opposite occurs.
Also, the ‘fair line’ of total HRs is around 240. I got under 238.5 at + 140.
Also got Raleigh to win it all at +470.
link to original post
They all hit. $$$. Plus also get a $56 free bet on one of my Cal Raleigh bets.
Today the free money comes on the all star game. MGM lets me bet NRFI at -150. Getting +185 or so on the other 3 sites for YFRI with their boost offers.
Free money on the British open. The ‘yes hole in one’ and ‘no hole in one’ odds on different sites are very close. Add in the boosts and it is easy $$.
Free money paid for golf today.
July 30th, 2025 at 1:43:01 PM
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.
some of the powers that be in MLB are unhappy about prop betting which is now huge
it's hard for me to believe the MLB players would risk so much for so little (I don't think a person can make huge prop bets) but I guess the potential for human beings to be corrupted when money is involved, even if it's a relatively small amount, shouldn't be underestimated
from the link:
"“We’ve been on prop bets from the very beginning,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said last year. “When we lobby in states, there’s always certain types of bets that we have lobbied against — I mean, the first pitch of the game, we really don’t want that available as a prop bet.”
MLB has put two pitchers for the Cleveland Guardians — Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase — on paid administrative leave through the end of August while it conducts an investigation into their potential use of sports betting apps to bet on baseball.
In the case of Ortiz, he is being investigated for throwing two specific pitches in early June that line up with a pair of bets that were flagged by a sports betting integrity firm. Those pitches — each of them an uncommon first-pitch slider — align with patterns flagged by a betting integrity watchdog firm."
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/cleveland-guardians-luis-ortiz-emmanuel-clase-prop-betting-sports-rcna221850
some of the powers that be in MLB are unhappy about prop betting which is now huge
it's hard for me to believe the MLB players would risk so much for so little (I don't think a person can make huge prop bets) but I guess the potential for human beings to be corrupted when money is involved, even if it's a relatively small amount, shouldn't be underestimated
from the link:
"“We’ve been on prop bets from the very beginning,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said last year. “When we lobby in states, there’s always certain types of bets that we have lobbied against — I mean, the first pitch of the game, we really don’t want that available as a prop bet.”
MLB has put two pitchers for the Cleveland Guardians — Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase — on paid administrative leave through the end of August while it conducts an investigation into their potential use of sports betting apps to bet on baseball.
In the case of Ortiz, he is being investigated for throwing two specific pitches in early June that line up with a pair of bets that were flagged by a sports betting integrity firm. Those pitches — each of them an uncommon first-pitch slider — align with patterns flagged by a betting integrity watchdog firm."
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/cleveland-guardians-luis-ortiz-emmanuel-clase-prop-betting-sports-rcna221850
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 30th, 2025 at 4:54:46 PM
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If it is proven that those players were involved, they should be banned. My concern is that most young pitchers don't call their own games so did the catcher call for it? How about the pitching coach?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
July 30th, 2025 at 5:07:21 PM
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Quote: billryanIf it is proven that those players were involved, they should be banned. My concern is that most young pitchers don't call their own games so did the catcher call for it? How about the pitching coach?
link to original post
It doesn’t matter what was ‘called’. Any pitch can intentionally be thrown outside to be a ball. And the bets can be as simple as ‘ball, strike, or in play’.
Clase is making around $5 million a year for the next two years. If his performance didn’t drop he’d be in line for 8 figures a year in his next contract.
I’m interested in finding out HOW MUCH they think Clase profited from whatever he is being investigated for?
July 30th, 2025 at 5:46:59 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanIf it is proven that those players were involved, they should be banned. My concern is that most young pitchers don't call their own games so did the catcher call for it? How about the pitching coach?
link to original post
It doesn’t matter what was ‘called’. Any pitch can intentionally be thrown outside to be a ball. And the bets can be as simple as ‘ball, strike, or in play’.
Clase is making around $5 million a year for the next two years. If his performance didn’t drop he’d be in line for 8 figures a year in his next contract.
I’m interested in finding out HOW MUCH they think Clase profited from whatever he is being investigated for?
link to original post
The bet was the pitch would be a slider.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
July 31st, 2025 at 2:59:01 PM
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Quote: billryanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanIf it is proven that those players were involved, they should be banned. My concern is that most young pitchers don't call their own games so did the catcher call for it? How about the pitching coach?
link to original post
It doesn’t matter what was ‘called’. Any pitch can intentionally be thrown outside to be a ball. And the bets can be as simple as ‘ball, strike, or in play’.
Clase is making around $5 million a year for the next two years. If his performance didn’t drop he’d be in line for 8 figures a year in his next contract.
I’m interested in finding out HOW MUCH they think Clase profited from whatever he is being investigated for?
link to original post
The bet was the pitch would be a slider.
link to original post
Wow, I didn't know books were taking bets on individual pitches.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
July 31st, 2025 at 6:40:50 PM
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Three more weeks until college football starts. I haven't made any big sports bets since last college football season.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
July 31st, 2025 at 7:00:01 PM
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https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2025/07/30/state-slams-draftkings-with-its-largest-ever-sports-gambling-fine-for-taking-credit-card-bets/
Draftkings fined big time by the state of MA for taking credit card bets. Not their first offense.
Draftkings fined big time by the state of MA for taking credit card bets. Not their first offense.
July 31st, 2025 at 11:13:34 PM
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Quote: GenoDRPhhttps://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2025/07/30/state-slams-draftkings-with-its-largest-ever-sports-gambling-fine-for-taking-credit-card-bets/
Draftkings fined big time by the state of MA for taking credit card bets. Not their first offense.
link to original post
And...
"Provide proof it returns the bets to customers."
It's about time a casino gets free-rolled.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 1st, 2025 at 4:19:01 AM
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Quote: billryanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanIf it is proven that those players were involved, they should be banned. My concern is that most young pitchers don't call their own games so did the catcher call for it? How about the pitching coach?
link to original post
It doesn’t matter what was ‘called’. Any pitch can intentionally be thrown outside to be a ball. And the bets can be as simple as ‘ball, strike, or in play’.
Clase is making around $5 million a year for the next two years. If his performance didn’t drop he’d be in line for 8 figures a year in his next contract.
I’m interested in finding out HOW MUCH they think Clase profited from whatever he is being investigated for?
link to original post
The bet was the pitch would be a slider.
link to original post
Link!? Not saying that’s not true, just I’ve never seen that type of offer. I’ve heard announcers argue all the time whether a pitch was a ‘sweeper’, a ‘slurve’, or a ‘slider’, not to be confused with a ‘forkball’, a ‘ghost slider’, a fastball, or a fastball that’s actually a ‘sinker’, let alone a curveball that’s really a ‘knuckle curve’ , or a ‘changeup with motion’, or to go way back….. an Ephus pitch!
What I read about the other guy was he just threw the ball way outside so it would be a ball.
August 1st, 2025 at 4:31:06 AM
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BetMGM has been offering a daily bet with no ‘juice’. Recently they are giving you a NRFI or YRFI at no vig odds. Say as an example YRFI +120 NRFI -120.
So once it was truly free money. Was able to get +105 on NRFI and + 100 for YRFI on another site.
But I still think I can almost always get some (very little!) positive EV. Here’s what I do. If the BETMGM split is +120/-120 as my example, I look at my other 4 sites. If they average +115/-135 (they have VIG of course) I will assume the fair line is around +125/-125. So I’d bet the -120 side. I have been on the positive side of variance with these, so I’m way up. But I still think for $100 bet I’m usually getting $1 - $2 in + EV.
Plus of course whatever ‘points’ I’m getting.
So once it was truly free money. Was able to get +105 on NRFI and + 100 for YRFI on another site.
But I still think I can almost always get some (very little!) positive EV. Here’s what I do. If the BETMGM split is +120/-120 as my example, I look at my other 4 sites. If they average +115/-135 (they have VIG of course) I will assume the fair line is around +125/-125. So I’d bet the -120 side. I have been on the positive side of variance with these, so I’m way up. But I still think for $100 bet I’m usually getting $1 - $2 in + EV.
Plus of course whatever ‘points’ I’m getting.
August 1st, 2025 at 5:43:56 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanIf it is proven that those players were involved, they should be banned. My concern is that most young pitchers don't call their own games so did the catcher call for it? How about the pitching coach?
link to original post
It doesn’t matter what was ‘called’. Any pitch can intentionally be thrown outside to be a ball. And the bets can be as simple as ‘ball, strike, or in play’.
Clase is making around $5 million a year for the next two years. If his performance didn’t drop he’d be in line for 8 figures a year in his next contract.
I’m interested in finding out HOW MUCH they think Clase profited from whatever he is being investigated for?
link to original post
The bet was the pitch would be a slider.
link to original post
Link!? Not saying that’s not true, just I’ve never seen that type of offer. I’ve heard announcers argue all the time whether a pitch was a ‘sweeper’, a ‘slurve’, or a ‘slider’, not to be confused with a ‘forkball’, a ‘ghost slider’, a fastball, or a fastball that’s actually a ‘sinker’, let alone a curveball that’s really a ‘knuckle curve’ , or a ‘changeup with motion’, or to go way back….. an Ephus pitch!
What I read about the other guy was he just threw the ball way outside so it would be a ball.
link to original post
Did you read the post? Bill Ryan was responding to LilRooster who posted it. Why would you ask Bill Ryan for the link? And there is a link in LR post, which I didn’t click.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
August 1st, 2025 at 6:50:35 AM
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Some interesting NBA stats that I'm not sure I agree with.
If you are six foot tall or smaller, the odds of you makin the NBA are roughly one in four million. The odds improve slightly for people under 6'3.
If you are 6'6 you have roughly a 1 in 150 shot, but at 6-8, you havde a legit one percent chance.
Some statistics will tell you if you are an American male, seven feet or taller, you have a one in seven chance of making the NBA.
One problem with that is the NBA routinely exaggerates people's heights. Brooke Lopez is always referred to as 7-0, yet in college he was 6-11. Of the twenty-something players in the NBA listed as 7-1 or 7-0, most are not true seven-footers.
If you are six foot tall or smaller, the odds of you makin the NBA are roughly one in four million. The odds improve slightly for people under 6'3.
If you are 6'6 you have roughly a 1 in 150 shot, but at 6-8, you havde a legit one percent chance.
Some statistics will tell you if you are an American male, seven feet or taller, you have a one in seven chance of making the NBA.
One problem with that is the NBA routinely exaggerates people's heights. Brooke Lopez is always referred to as 7-0, yet in college he was 6-11. Of the twenty-something players in the NBA listed as 7-1 or 7-0, most are not true seven-footers.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
August 1st, 2025 at 8:36:50 AM
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.
from the Espn link - here are some more examples of unethical gambling in sports betting -
these are just the ones that got caught - many how athletes made some shady bets and didn't get caught_____?_________prolly a great many
"Josh Shaw was the first active player, though on injured reserve, to be suspended for betting on league games. He bet openly at a sportsbook in Las Vegas against his own team at the time, the Arizona Cardinals, as part of a parlay.
An independent investigation launched in July 2021 found Hernandez had engaged in "extensive and unlawful sports gambling" while a member of Sporting Kansas City, including gambling on MLS games.
Ridley, an Atlanta Falcons receiver at the time, was suspended for at least the entirety of the 2022 season after the NFL determined he had gambled on games during a five-day stretch in November 2021 while on the non-football injury list. Sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that the stretch included multilegged parlay bets that included the Falcons to win.
The UFC added stricter language about wagering in its fight code of conduct and hired U.S. Integrity, a sports wagering monitoring firm. The change stemmed from suspicious betting patterns related to a UFC fight between Darrick Minner and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Quintez Cephus, safety C.J. Moore and Washington Commanders defensive end Shaka Toney were indefinitely suspended for betting on NFL games,
Ohio gambling regulators had initially halted betting on college baseball games involving Alabama after suspicious wagering activity was detected for its game against LSU. Federal prosecutors alleged Bert Neff, an Indiana businessman and youth baseball coach, communicated with Bohannon ahead of an Alabama-LSU baseball game and proceeded to bet against the Crimson Tide. Alabama fired Bohannon six days after the betting had been halted.
The University of Iowa and Iowa State University announce more than three dozen athletes -- spanning baseball, football, men's basketball, men's track and field, and wrestling -- and one full-time Iowa athletic department employee were suspected of violating NCAA rules against gambling on sports.
Indianapolis Colts' Isaiah Rodgers Sr. and Rashod Berry and free agent Demetrius Taylor were suspended by the NFL through at least the 2023 season for betting on NFL games in 2022. "
https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39908218/a-line-sports-gambling-scandals-2018
from the Espn link - here are some more examples of unethical gambling in sports betting -
these are just the ones that got caught - many how athletes made some shady bets and didn't get caught_____?_________prolly a great many
"Josh Shaw was the first active player, though on injured reserve, to be suspended for betting on league games. He bet openly at a sportsbook in Las Vegas against his own team at the time, the Arizona Cardinals, as part of a parlay.
An independent investigation launched in July 2021 found Hernandez had engaged in "extensive and unlawful sports gambling" while a member of Sporting Kansas City, including gambling on MLS games.
Ridley, an Atlanta Falcons receiver at the time, was suspended for at least the entirety of the 2022 season after the NFL determined he had gambled on games during a five-day stretch in November 2021 while on the non-football injury list. Sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that the stretch included multilegged parlay bets that included the Falcons to win.
The UFC added stricter language about wagering in its fight code of conduct and hired U.S. Integrity, a sports wagering monitoring firm. The change stemmed from suspicious betting patterns related to a UFC fight between Darrick Minner and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Quintez Cephus, safety C.J. Moore and Washington Commanders defensive end Shaka Toney were indefinitely suspended for betting on NFL games,
Ohio gambling regulators had initially halted betting on college baseball games involving Alabama after suspicious wagering activity was detected for its game against LSU. Federal prosecutors alleged Bert Neff, an Indiana businessman and youth baseball coach, communicated with Bohannon ahead of an Alabama-LSU baseball game and proceeded to bet against the Crimson Tide. Alabama fired Bohannon six days after the betting had been halted.
The University of Iowa and Iowa State University announce more than three dozen athletes -- spanning baseball, football, men's basketball, men's track and field, and wrestling -- and one full-time Iowa athletic department employee were suspected of violating NCAA rules against gambling on sports.
Indianapolis Colts' Isaiah Rodgers Sr. and Rashod Berry and free agent Demetrius Taylor were suspended by the NFL through at least the 2023 season for betting on NFL games in 2022. "
https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39908218/a-line-sports-gambling-scandals-2018
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 1, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 1st, 2025 at 10:29:06 AM
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Does anyone have more information on the wagering monitoring firms?
Is there a list of places they monitor?
Who do they alert? I assume only the people who are paying for their services. Do they give their services for free to the state gaming and sports enforcement agencies?
What are the legalities of betting on something you believe might be fixed, however, you had nothing to do with the fixing, and you're not sure the match is being fixed, you are just using data that would indicate there might be some shenanigans going on.
Is there a list of places they monitor?
Who do they alert? I assume only the people who are paying for their services. Do they give their services for free to the state gaming and sports enforcement agencies?
What are the legalities of betting on something you believe might be fixed, however, you had nothing to do with the fixing, and you're not sure the match is being fixed, you are just using data that would indicate there might be some shenanigans going on.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 1st, 2025 at 11:00:50 AM
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Quote: AxelWolf
What are the legalities of betting on something you believe might be fixed, however, you had nothing to do with the fixing, and you're not sure the match is being fixed, you are just using data that would indicate there might be some shenanigans going on.
If you are making your wager based only on data I think you are fine. If it was something different I would avoid it.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
August 1st, 2025 at 11:13:57 AM
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As a general rule, I try to avoid situations that might end up in a federal investigation.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
August 1st, 2025 at 12:22:15 PM
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Quote: billryanSome interesting NBA stats that I'm not sure I agree with.
If you are six foot tall or smaller, the odds of you makin the NBA are roughly one in four million. The odds improve slightly for people under 6'3.
If you are 6'6 you have roughly a 1 in 150 shot, but at 6-8, you havde a legit one percent chance.
Some statistics will tell you if you are an American male, seven feet or taller, you have a one in seven chance of making the NBA.
One problem with that is the NBA routinely exaggerates people's heights. Brooke Lopez is always referred to as 7-0, yet in college he was 6-11. Of the twenty-something players in the NBA listed as 7-1 or 7-0, most are not true seven-footers.
link to original post
This has been a long standing problem with NBA teams, fudging player measurements. A few years a go the league mandated that team doctors conduct player measurements in stocking feet and sign that they are true and accurate. A few players' heights were "adjusted" in appropriate directions as a result. A few players got all bent out of shape about it.
August 1st, 2025 at 1:05:42 PM
permalink
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: billryanSome interesting NBA stats that I'm not sure I agree with.
If you are six foot tall or smaller, the odds of you makin the NBA are roughly one in four million. The odds improve slightly for people under 6'3.
If you are 6'6 you have roughly a 1 in 150 shot, but at 6-8, you havde a legit one percent chance.
Some statistics will tell you if you are an American male, seven feet or taller, you have a one in seven chance of making the NBA.
One problem with that is the NBA routinely exaggerates people's heights. Brooke Lopez is always referred to as 7-0, yet in college he was 6-11. Of the twenty-something players in the NBA listed as 7-1 or 7-0, most are not true seven-footers.
link to original post
This has been a long standing problem with NBA teams, fudging player measurements. A few years a go the league mandated that team doctors conduct player measurements in stocking feet and sign that they are true and accurate. A few players' heights were "adjusted" in appropriate directions as a result. A few players got all bent out of shape about it.
link to original post
It turns out that Victor Wembanyama is only 6'1".
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
August 1st, 2025 at 1:47:28 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanIf it is proven that those players were involved, they should be banned. My concern is that most young pitchers don't call their own games so did the catcher call for it? How about the pitching coach?
link to original post
It doesn’t matter what was ‘called’. Any pitch can intentionally be thrown outside to be a ball. And the bets can be as simple as ‘ball, strike, or in play’.
Clase is making around $5 million a year for the next two years. If his performance didn’t drop he’d be in line for 8 figures a year in his next contract.
I’m interested in finding out HOW MUCH they think Clase profited from whatever he is being investigated for?
link to original post
The bet was the pitch would be a slider.
link to original post
Link!? Not saying that’s not true, just I’ve never seen that type of offer. I’ve heard announcers argue all the time whether a pitch was a ‘sweeper’, a ‘slurve’, or a ‘slider’, not to be confused with a ‘forkball’, a ‘ghost slider’, a fastball, or a fastball that’s actually a ‘sinker’, let alone a curveball that’s really a ‘knuckle curve’ , or a ‘changeup with motion’, or to go way back….. an Ephus pitch!
What I read about the other guy was he just threw the ball way outside so it would be a ball.
link to original post
Did you read the post? Bill Ryan was responding to LilRooster who posted it. Why would you ask Bill Ryan for the link? And there is a link in LR post, which I didn’t click.
link to original post
Huh? Bill Ryans post was one sentence. He posted ‘the bet was the pitch would be a slider’. I asked Bill if he had a link? I have no idea what YOU are referring to!
