Sports betting chatter
May 13th, 2025 at 7:56:36 PM
permalink
I'm glad Joe Jackson had his eligibility restored. Every account I've read seemed to indicate he was railroaded. He played and coached for twenty-plus years after being banned from MLB, as there were hundreds of independent teams in that era.
I don't think he has any family, as he and his wife didn't have children. Being inducted into the Hall will be worth millions in royalties.
I don't think he has any family, as he and his wife didn't have children. Being inducted into the Hall will be worth millions in royalties.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 17th, 2025 at 5:22:03 PM
permalink
Back in NY. Hard Rock Florida had the huge + EV ‘battle of the bets’ in which for almost no -EV got me a few hundred $$ in free bets. I think overall +EV was around $10-$20 a day.
Not having played for 5 months or so in NY was wondering what awaited me. First good offer was betMGM deposit $1k get $250 in free bets. But the also had deposit $1000 and get $100 in free bets. So poorly worded, ambiguous. I couldn’t find a ‘deposit code’ to fill in. Anyway, made the transfer with no deposit code…. And instantaneously got both…. $350 in free bets. I won’t withdraw anything for at least a full playthrough of over $1350. Can’t even tell if I’m restricted.
I’ll be joining ESPN BET soon.
Not having played for 5 months or so in NY was wondering what awaited me. First good offer was betMGM deposit $1k get $250 in free bets. But the also had deposit $1000 and get $100 in free bets. So poorly worded, ambiguous. I couldn’t find a ‘deposit code’ to fill in. Anyway, made the transfer with no deposit code…. And instantaneously got both…. $350 in free bets. I won’t withdraw anything for at least a full playthrough of over $1350. Can’t even tell if I’m restricted.
I’ll be joining ESPN BET soon.
May 18th, 2025 at 5:20:52 AM
permalink
It's May 18th, and Aaron Judge is batting around. .410.
When do we get serious about his doing this for a whole season?
When do we get serious about his doing this for a whole season?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 18th, 2025 at 7:49:22 AM
permalink
thinking about ESPN bet. Searching the internet I find different claims in third party sites as to what new players get. I find that a little unsettling. The actual website seems to only show 'bet 10 get 100' ... Virginia seems to sometimes get left out somewhat in these thingsQuote: SOOPOOBack in NY. Hard Rock Florida had the huge + EV ‘battle of the bets’ in which for almost no -EV got me a few hundred $$ in free bets. I think overall +EV was around $10-$20 a day.
Not having played for 5 months or so in NY was wondering what awaited me. First good offer was betMGM deposit $1k get $250 in free bets. But the also had deposit $1000 and get $100 in free bets. So poorly worded, ambiguous. I couldn’t find a ‘deposit code’ to fill in. Anyway, made the transfer with no deposit code…. And instantaneously got both…. $350 in free bets. I won’t withdraw anything for at least a full playthrough of over $1350. Can’t even tell if I’m restricted.
I’ll be joining ESPN BET soon.
link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 21st, 2025 at 5:49:01 AM
permalink
I've decided to wait until NFL season starts, there should be a new player push then
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 21st, 2025 at 7:48:08 PM
permalink
Indianapolis colts owner\CEO Jim irsay died this afternoon 65
May 22nd, 2025 at 7:19:30 AM
permalink
Bad beats for SOOPOO! Had 4 leg parlay…. already spent the money…. Oilers + 1.5 last leg…. Up 3-1 in the 3rd…. They lose 6-3!
Had Knicks ML as last leg of another…. Halliburton hits shot of the rim at the buzzer…. It goes 15 feet in the air…. Falls straight through the net for OT. KNICKS choke in OT. Actually, before all that, Knicks were up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play.
I did great on my MGM free bets. Turned $350 in free bets into over $500 cash. They just had a ‘mission’. Deposit $10, bet $10 straight bet and a $1 parlay to get enough points for $25 cash, which I think just has to be played through once.
Free $25 is better than nothing.
Had Knicks ML as last leg of another…. Halliburton hits shot of the rim at the buzzer…. It goes 15 feet in the air…. Falls straight through the net for OT. KNICKS choke in OT. Actually, before all that, Knicks were up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play.
I did great on my MGM free bets. Turned $350 in free bets into over $500 cash. They just had a ‘mission’. Deposit $10, bet $10 straight bet and a $1 parlay to get enough points for $25 cash, which I think just has to be played through once.
Free $25 is better than nothing.
May 23rd, 2025 at 6:27:24 PM
permalink
I have heard everything now
500 weekend, 6 Oscar Meyer Weinermobiles will be having a race at the track. weinermobile #3 slaw dog won
Draft kings was accepting wagers
Carb day nonsense may 23
500 weekend, 6 Oscar Meyer Weinermobiles will be having a race at the track. weinermobile #3 slaw dog won
Draft kings was accepting wagers
Carb day nonsense may 23
May 24th, 2025 at 4:57:52 AM
permalink
Quote: avianrandyI have heard everything now
500 weekend, 6 Oscar Meyer Weinermobiles will be having a race at the track. weinermobile #3 slaw dog won
Draft kings was accepting wagers
Carb day nonsense may 23
link to original post
Not sure if it was ‘bets’. They did have a free pool with (small) real cash prizes that you could participate in.
SOOPOO has no parlays to brag about as his ‘sure thing’ was the Yankees last night…..
May 24th, 2025 at 8:07:32 AM
permalink
Anybody else rooting for the Oilers? It is about time we let a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup, it has been over 30 years.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
May 24th, 2025 at 9:01:45 AM
permalink
Quote: DRichAnybody else rooting for the Oilers? It is about time we let a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup, it has been over 30 years.
link to original post
McDavid is just so much fun to watch. The other players look like they are standing still when he skates by them. I’m rooting for him to get a Cup. Glad he never looked to leave for a bigger market. He’ll never be the GOAT (Gretzky), but he might be the second best player of all time. I’ll need him to win a Cup to have a chance in the inevitable arguments…
May 25th, 2025 at 8:34:15 AM
permalink
.
Mitchell Robinson under 15.5 points, assists, and rebounds_____-115_______knicks vs. pacers tonight
his totals on this for the last 5 games - 15,11, 5, 21, 14 - and he's playing away tonight
he hasn't taken more than 3 shots in any one of his last 5 games - one game he took one shot, and one game he took zero
.
Mitchell Robinson under 15.5 points, assists, and rebounds_____-115_______knicks vs. pacers tonight
his totals on this for the last 5 games - 15,11, 5, 21, 14 - and he's playing away tonight
he hasn't taken more than 3 shots in any one of his last 5 games - one game he took one shot, and one game he took zero
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 26th, 2025 at 5:39:33 AM
permalink
.
above pick won -
today - Naz Reid Under 14.5 points and assists______-128________OKC vs. Minn
he's been under that total in his last 5 playoff games and 11 of his last 13 playoff games - the most he's gotten in the last 5 games is 12
covers.com shows Fanduel currently offering those odds on the under
one more for today - Charlie Morton, Orioles pitcher under 14.5 outs recorded - +108 - the O's have been pulling him early - he hasn't had more than 13 in his last 8 games
he's 0 and 7 with a 7.68 era this year
covers.com shows Caesars currently offering those odds
.
above pick won -
today - Naz Reid Under 14.5 points and assists______-128________OKC vs. Minn
he's been under that total in his last 5 playoff games and 11 of his last 13 playoff games - the most he's gotten in the last 5 games is 12
covers.com shows Fanduel currently offering those odds on the under
one more for today - Charlie Morton, Orioles pitcher under 14.5 outs recorded - +108 - the O's have been pulling him early - he hasn't had more than 13 in his last 8 games
he's 0 and 7 with a 7.68 era this year
covers.com shows Caesars currently offering those odds
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 26, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 26th, 2025 at 7:53:37 AM
permalink
What do they mean by 14.5 outs?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 26th, 2025 at 8:19:15 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanWhat do they mean by 14.5 outs?
it means if he got 14 or fewer outs the under wins and the over loses - if he got 15 or more outs the over wins and the under loses
so, it you look on the stats after the game under IP - innings pitched - each inning is 3 outs
his last game he pitched 1.0 innings - which means he got 3 players out
the game on the 17th he pitched 4.1 innings - which means he got 13 players out - 3 players out each of the 4 innings makes 12 and the .1 means 1 more for 13
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mortoch02.shtml
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 26th, 2025 at 8:26:27 AM
permalink
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanWhat do they mean by 14.5 outs?
it means he got 14 players out
so, it you look on the stats after the game under IP - innings pitched - each inning is 3 outs
his last game he pitched 1.0 innings - which means he got 3 players out
the game on the 17th he pitched 4.1 innings - which means he got 13 players out - 3 players out each of the 4 innings makes 12 and the .1 means 1 more for 13
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mortoch02.shtml
.
link to original post
Why not say 14.0 then ? Either you get fourteen outs, or you don't.
If I bet on him, I win if he gets 15 outs and lose if he gets 14, so why throw in the extra .5 outs?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 26th, 2025 at 8:28:55 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanWhat do they mean by 14.5 outs?
it means he got 14 players out
so, it you look on the stats after the game under IP - innings pitched - each inning is 3 outs
his last game he pitched 1.0 innings - which means he got 3 players out
the game on the 17th he pitched 4.1 innings - which means he got 13 players out - 3 players out each of the 4 innings makes 12 and the .1 means 1 more for 13
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mortoch02.shtml
.
link to original post
Why not say 14.0 then ? Either you get fourteen outs, or you don't.
If I bet on him, I win if he gets 15 outs and lose if he gets 14, so why throw in the extra .5 outs?
because that way there are no pushes - they are trying to assign the lines with the proper odds so that every bet is resolved
if the line was 14.0 and he got 14 outs all of those bets would be no action
I edited my original first line in my response to you because it was lacking - the proper edited response is:
"it means if he got 14 or fewer outs the under wins and the over loses - if he got 15 or more outs the over wins and the under loses"
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 26th, 2025 at 8:44:14 AM
permalink
So 14.5 outs is 15
14 outs and you lose, 15 outs and you win. You need Morton to pitch five full innings for you to lose. Four and two-thirds innings wins the bet.
In yesterday's Yankee game, starter Will Warren pitched a gem with seven Ks through the first four innings. With the Yankees at bat in the fifth, the sky opened up, and he was pulled after the long rain delay. It was the best performance of his young career, but the records will note that he failed to get the fifteen outs needed for a win.
14 outs and you lose, 15 outs and you win. You need Morton to pitch five full innings for you to lose. Four and two-thirds innings wins the bet.
In yesterday's Yankee game, starter Will Warren pitched a gem with seven Ks through the first four innings. With the Yankees at bat in the fifth, the sky opened up, and he was pulled after the long rain delay. It was the best performance of his young career, but the records will note that he failed to get the fifteen outs needed for a win.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 26th, 2025 at 8:53:06 AM
permalink
Didn't the O's just switch managers? The new one may handle his pitchers differently.
Best of luck.
Best of luck.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 26th, 2025 at 9:05:50 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanWill Warren pitched a gem through the first 4 innings. With the Yankees at bat in the fifth, the sky opened up, and he was pulled after the long rain delay. It was the best performance of his young career, but the records will note that he failed to get the fifteen outs needed for a win.
that's only correct if the line was set at 14.5 outs
the line could be set at anything - the estimation of the pitcher's ability determines that
today for Clay Holmes of the Mets the line is set at 17.5 outs - the under pays +116
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 26th, 2025 at 9:21:38 AM
permalink
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanWill Warren pitched a gem through the first 4 innings. With the Yankees at bat in the fifth, the sky opened up, and he was pulled after the long rain delay. It was the best performance of his young career, but the records will note that he failed to get the fifteen outs needed for a win.
that's only correct if the line was set at 14.5 outs
the line could be set at anything - the estimation of the pitcher's ability determines that
today for Clay Holmes of the Mets the line is set at 17.5 outs - the under pays +116
.
link to original post
No, he didn't get 15 outs and didn't get the win. The line had nothing to do with it. A starter must go five innings(15 outs) to get the win.
Under current rules, since the starter failed to get 15 outs but left while ahead, the Official Scorer can award the win to whichever Yankee pitcher he wants who appeared in the game.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 26th, 2025 at 9:59:15 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanWill Warren pitched a gem through the first 4 innings. With the Yankees at bat in the fifth, the sky opened up, and he was pulled after the long rain delay. It was the best performance of his young career, but the records will note that he failed to get the fifteen outs needed for a win.
that's only correct if the line was set at 14.5 outs
the line could be set at anything - the estimation of the pitcher's ability determines that
today for Clay Holmes of the Mets the line is set at 17.5 outs - the under pays +116
.
link to original post
No, he didn't get 15 outs and didn't get the win. The line had nothing to do with it. A starter must go five innings(15 outs) to get the win.
Under current rules, since the starter failed to get 15 outs but left while ahead, the Official Scorer can award the win to whichever Yankee pitcher he wants who appeared in the game.
okay, I see - you're talking about the pitcher winning the game
I didn't realize that before I posted
the outs recorded line has nothing to do with the pitcher winning or losing the game which is what I posted about
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 26th, 2025 at 10:05:57 AM
permalink
Understood.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 26th, 2025 at 3:29:44 PM
permalink
Quote: billryan
Under current rules, since the starter failed to get 15 outs but left while ahead, the Official Scorer can award the win to whichever Yankee pitcher he wants who appeared in the game.
I did not realize that. I thought it was the pitcher of record after the fifth inning that held the lead. I did not know the scorer had discretion.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
May 26th, 2025 at 3:47:25 PM
permalink
Quote: DRichQuote: billryan
Under current rules, since the starter failed to get 15 outs but left while ahead, the Official Scorer can award the win to whichever Yankee pitcher he wants who appeared in the game.
I did not realize that. I thought it was the pitcher of record after the fifth inning that held the lead. I did not know the scorer had discretion.
link to original post
He kind of does. There is the "ineffective reliever" rule which is rare. But lets say a team is up 8-0, and the starter has to leave at 4.2 innings for some reason. Relief pitcher comes in and gets shelled, gives up 7 runs before he gets an out, now it's 8-7 and that pitcher does not reappear for the next inning, but if his team never gives up the lead at that point he probably won't get the win, the scorekeeper can say he was so bad he was not part of the winning effort and award it to the next guy.
Unsure what would happen if he made it 8-8, got his out and ended the inning, then his team retakes and keeps the lead when they come back out.
May 26th, 2025 at 4:21:05 PM
permalink
A lengthy rain delay in yesterday's Yankee game meant the SP was out of the game after four innings. The Yankees were winning 4-2. Johnny Lasagna pitched the fifth and one out in the sixth.
Lieter came in and got out of the sixth and pitched the seventh. The backend took over the Yankees won 4-3.
Either middle reliever was eligible for the win, and the scorer gave it to Lieter. After five innings, Lasagna was the pitcher in the game.
It's been infrequent but not rare. With more teams employing starters, the Scorer can choose who gets the win much more than under the original rules. Few starters go five in the postseason anymore, but I believe they use other criteria in the post-season.
Lieter came in and got out of the sixth and pitched the seventh. The backend took over the Yankees won 4-3.
Either middle reliever was eligible for the win, and the scorer gave it to Lieter. After five innings, Lasagna was the pitcher in the game.
It's been infrequent but not rare. With more teams employing starters, the Scorer can choose who gets the win much more than under the original rules. Few starters go five in the postseason anymore, but I believe they use other criteria in the post-season.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 26th, 2025 at 5:00:19 PM
permalink
Quote: billryanA lengthy rain delay in yesterday's Yankee game meant the SP was out of the game after four innings. The Yankees were winning 4-2. Johnny Lasagna pitched the fifth and one out in the sixth.
Lieter came in and got out of the sixth and pitched the seventh. The backend took over the Yankees won 4-3.
Either middle reliever was eligible for the win, and the scorer gave it to Lieter. After five innings, Lasagna was the pitcher in the game.
It's been infrequent but not rare. With more teams employing starters, the Scorer can choose who gets the win much more than under the original rules. Few starters go five in the postseason anymore, but I believe they use other criteria in the post-season.
link to original post
I think you mean "openers," no? An opener is a relief pitcher who starts and they plan on replacing him very quickly. Schmidt is a legitimate starter but he does not go deep into games at all.
With the new Little League extra innings rule the professionals are using they don't need to conserve relievers as much, but they don't use that rule in the postseason (the advertising spots are worth a lot more) so I would expect starters to be going longer now. Also because there are no lousy starters in the postseason. If you bring your #5 starter at all he's going to be there for long relief, not starting.
In my opinion there have been no beneficial rule changes in baseball after 1920, but these recent ones under Manfred have been odious.
May 27th, 2025 at 4:33:11 AM
permalink
.
I split my above prop picks yesterday - won the NBA and lost the MLB
today - trying Mitchell Robinson again, Under 15.5 points, rebounds and assist -120____________Knicks vs. Pacers
he's been under that total in 9 of his last 10 games
not every single time but it sure seems like quite a few of these props are priced so that the under definitely looks like a better bet
I guess to compensate for players generally betting more on the over - betting on their fave players and such
.
I split my above prop picks yesterday - won the NBA and lost the MLB
today - trying Mitchell Robinson again, Under 15.5 points, rebounds and assist -120____________Knicks vs. Pacers
he's been under that total in 9 of his last 10 games
not every single time but it sure seems like quite a few of these props are priced so that the under definitely looks like a better bet
I guess to compensate for players generally betting more on the over - betting on their fave players and such
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 27, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 27th, 2025 at 8:46:48 AM
permalink
.
one more for today
Tigers - Jake Rogers under 0.5 hits -120________________Tigers vs. Giants
he's batting .160 - he's only had a hit in one of his last 5 games
.
one more for today
Tigers - Jake Rogers under 0.5 hits -120________________Tigers vs. Giants
he's batting .160 - he's only had a hit in one of his last 5 games
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 27th, 2025 at 2:02:59 PM
permalink
Quote: lilredrooster.
I split my above prop picks yesterday - won the NBA and lost the MLB
today - trying Mitchell Robinson again, Under 15.5 points, rebounds and assist -120____________Knicks vs. Pacers
he's been under that total in 9 of his last 10 games
not every single time but it sure seems like quite a few of these props are priced so that the under definitely looks like a better bet
I guess to compensate for players generally betting more on the over - betting on their fave players and such
.
link to original post
The bookies must love you. Is Mitchell Robinson going to be starting tonight as opposed to playing 15-20 minutes off the bench like he used to play?
Will the Pacers then intentionally foul Mitchell Robinson giving him a bucket full of free throws?
With Josh Hart playing fewer minutes will Mitchell Robinson tend to be the primary rebounder since Towns plays on a perimeter shooter when Robinson is on the floor with him?
My point being that it’s 15.5 for a reason, not an ‘error’ by the bookies. That being said, I think 15.5 is pretty fair, so I’ll be betting along with you!
May 28th, 2025 at 5:01:17 AM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
I split my above prop picks yesterday - won the NBA and lost the MLB
today - trying Mitchell Robinson again, Under 15.5 points, rebounds and assist -120____________Knicks vs. Pacers
he's been under that total in 9 of his last 10 games
not every single time but it sure seems like quite a few of these props are priced so that the under definitely looks like a better bet
I guess to compensate for players generally betting more on the over - betting on their fave players and such
.
link to original post
The bookies must love you. Is Mitchell Robinson going to be starting tonight as opposed to playing 15-20 minutes off the bench like he used to play?
Will the Pacers then intentionally foul Mitchell Robinson giving him a bucket full of free throws?
With Josh Hart playing fewer minutes will Mitchell Robinson tend to be the primary rebounder since Towns plays on a perimeter shooter when Robinson is on the floor with him?
My point being that it’s 15.5 for a reason, not an ‘error’ by the bookies. That being said, I think 15.5 is pretty fair, so I’ll be betting along with you!
link to original post
the Mitchell Robinson pick won - Jake Rogers didn't play - the pick on him was no action
Mitchell Robinson played only 19 minutes - the 2nd fewest in the his last 5 games and he wasn't in foul trouble
I think the books just made a bad line - I don't think they knew something - that sometimes happen - although I don't really know why
on another site I won a pick I posted - (a week or so ago) Luke Kornet under 1.5 assists - 115 - at that time he had only 1 assist TOTAL in the last 5 games - he's been under 1.5 in 11 of his 12 playoff games - go figure - I don't really get it but on the other hand who cares - if it looks like a really good bet take it and don't worry about who knows what
today:
Alex Caruso - under 14.5 points, rebounds and assists________-115___________Minn vs. OKC
he's been under that total in his last 5 playoff games
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 28, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 28th, 2025 at 5:39:32 AM
permalink
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
I split my above prop picks yesterday - won the NBA and lost the MLB
today - trying Mitchell Robinson again, Under 15.5 points, rebounds and assist -120____________Knicks vs. Pacers
he's been under that total in 9 of his last 10 games
not every single time but it sure seems like quite a few of these props are priced so that the under definitely looks like a better bet
I guess to compensate for players generally betting more on the over - betting on their fave players and such
.
link to original post
The bookies must love you. Is Mitchell Robinson going to be starting tonight as opposed to playing 15-20 minutes off the bench like he used to play?
Will the Pacers then intentionally foul Mitchell Robinson giving him a bucket full of free throws?
With Josh Hart playing fewer minutes will Mitchell Robinson tend to be the primary rebounder since Towns plays on a perimeter shooter when Robinson is on the floor with him?
My point being that it’s 15.5 for a reason, not an ‘error’ by the bookies. That being said, I think 15.5 is pretty fair, so I’ll be betting along with you!
link to original post
the Mitchell Robinson pick won - Jake Rogers didn't play - the pick on him was no action
Mitchell Robinson played only 19 minutes - the 2nd fewest in the his last 5 games and he wasn't in foul trouble
I think the books just made a bad line - I don't think they knew something - that sometimes happen - although I don't really know why
on another site I won a pick I posted - (a week or so ago) Luke Kornet under 1.5 assists - 115 - at that time he had only 1 assist TOTAL in the last 5 games - he's been under 1.5 in 11 of his 12 playoff games - go figure - I don't really get it but on the other hand who cares - if it looks like a really good bet take it and don't worry about who knows what
today:
Alex Caruso - under 14.5 points, rebounds and assists________-115___________Minn vs. OKC
he's been under that total in his last 5 playoff games
.
link to original post
Good hit on Robinson. I think it was more lucky than good! He was only one short when Thibodeau inexplicably ended his night after only 19 minutes played! But a win is a win!
I won a bunch of player prop parlays going over on them. In such a high scoring game (AND equally fast paced) lots of overs hit. I did lose on my only under pick…. Josh Hart under 8.5 rebounds…. I thought he would have lost more playing time to Robinson!
In general sports betting discussion…. My daily EV must be way down from last year. My MGM profit boosts limit me to $20 when most were $50. And most of the boosts are 20%, making them barely +EV. I think the other sites’ offers are somewhat less valuable as well.
May 28th, 2025 at 5:54:15 AM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
I split my above prop picks yesterday - won the NBA and lost the MLB
today - trying Mitchell Robinson again, Under 15.5 points, rebounds and assist -120____________Knicks vs. Pacers
he's been under that total in 9 of his last 10 games
not every single time but it sure seems like quite a few of these props are priced so that the under definitely looks like a better bet
I guess to compensate for players generally betting more on the over - betting on their fave players and such
.
link to original post
The bookies must love you. Is Mitchell Robinson going to be starting tonight as opposed to playing 15-20 minutes off the bench like he used to play?
Will the Pacers then intentionally foul Mitchell Robinson giving him a bucket full of free throws?
With Josh Hart playing fewer minutes will Mitchell Robinson tend to be the primary rebounder since Towns plays on a perimeter shooter when Robinson is on the floor with him?
My point being that it’s 15.5 for a reason, not an ‘error’ by the bookies. That being said, I think 15.5 is pretty fair, so I’ll be betting along with you!
link to original post
the Mitchell Robinson pick won - Jake Rogers didn't play - the pick on him was no action
Mitchell Robinson played only 19 minutes - the 2nd fewest in the his last 5 games and he wasn't in foul trouble
I think the books just made a bad line - I don't think they knew something - that sometimes happen - although I don't really know why
on another site I won a pick I posted - (a week or so ago) Luke Kornet under 1.5 assists - 115 - at that time he had only 1 assist TOTAL in the last 5 games - he's been under 1.5 in 11 of his 12 playoff games - go figure - I don't really get it but on the other hand who cares - if it looks like a really good bet take it and don't worry about who knows what
today:
Alex Caruso - under 14.5 points, rebounds and assists________-115___________Minn vs. OKC
he's been under that total in his last 5 playoff games
.
link to original post
Good hit on Robinson. I think it was more lucky than good! He was ONLY ONE SHORT when Thibodeau inexplicably ended his night after only 19 minutes played! But a win is a win!
I WON A BUNCH OF PROP PARLAYS GOING OVER ON THEM In such a high scoring game (AND equally fast paced) lots of overs hit. I did lose on my only under pick…. Josh Hart under 8.5 rebounds…. I thought he would have lost more playing time to Robinson!
In general sports betting discussion…. My daily EV must be way down from last year. My MGM profit boosts limit me to $20 when most were $50. And most of the boosts are 20%, making them barely +EV. I think the other sites’ offers are somewhat less valuable as well.
link to original post
not a big deal but Robinson was 2 short not one short of causing the bet to lose - he got 14 and the line I posted was 15.5
I'm not doubting your veracity but it would be more fun for everybody if you posted your picks before the games start - not the results afterwards
your choice of course - just sayin' - whatever
and as to your posting reasons why the Robinson bet could lose - (none of which happened) - anybody can find reasons why any bet can lose - there are no guarantees - obviously
Robinson didn't get pulled "inexplicably" - he got pulled because he's a very weak scorer - he's only had one game in the last 16 where he's scored more than 6 points
in several of those games he's scored 0, 2 or just 1
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 28, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 28th, 2025 at 9:30:09 AM
permalink
I just know that I have done well overall with Lilredrooster's picks over the years, and he usually has what seems like logical reasoning or data to back up his reasoning. So overall, I do believe it's skill, and I greatly appreciate him posting his picks.Quote: SOOPOO
Good hit on Robinson. I think it was more lucky than good!
Unfortunately, I can't get much down on his recent series of pics.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 28th, 2025 at 10:36:58 AM
permalink
Quote: AxelWolfI just know that I have done well overall with Lilredrooster's picks over the years, and he usually has what seems like logical reasoning or data to back up his reasoning. So overall, I do believe it's skill, and I greatly appreciate him posting his picks.Quote: SOOPOO
Good hit on Robinson. I think it was more lucky than good!
Unfortunately, I can't get much down on his recent series of pics.
link to original post
That's good to know.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 28th, 2025 at 11:09:51 AM
permalink
I just noticed I don't know what some of the words mean in the lyrics of that song Axelwolf always post ... this segment,
"Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table"
what black cards? why does he hide and seemingly not use them?
"Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table"
what black cards? why does he hide and seemingly not use them?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 28th, 2025 at 12:24:52 PM
permalink
Quote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
Tigers - Jake Rogers under 0.5 hits -120________________Tigers vs. Giants
he's batting .160 - he's only had a hit in one of his last 5 games
.
link to original post
Did you win that bet or was it no action as Rogers didn't bat?
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
May 28th, 2025 at 1:47:58 PM
permalink
Quote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
Tigers - Jake Rogers under 0.5 hits -120________________Tigers vs. Giants
he's batting .160 - he's only had a hit in one of his last 5 games
.
link to original post
Did you win that bet or was it no action as Rogers didn't bat?
link to original post
no action
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 28th, 2025 at 5:09:27 PM
permalink
Quote: lilredrooster
I'm not doubting your veracity but it would be more fun for everybody if you posted your picks before the games start - not the results afterwards
When I post an after the fact win (or loss) it is more for interest only as opposed to me showing how great a picker I am. I’d be really surprised if I’m better than 51% on my even chance type bets. Meaning I can’t beat a normal vig.
What I am good at is using the offers afforded me to eke out a small amount of cash. Emphasis on the word small.
I probably average 20-40 separate bets a night. I’m not posting them all. Just what you want to read is why I made that $5 bet against the Marlins because they had Alcantara on the mound, and parlaying it with the over, of course. He gave up 6 runs as I predicted…….. (but I lost anyway as Marlins score a late 10 runs…).
Here’s one…. I have 5 leg tennis parlay needing an Arthur Fils victory in the morning. Go Fils…
I also hedged a bit with his opponent, Munar, +6.5 games.
May 29th, 2025 at 4:52:56 AM
permalink
.
above pick on Alex Caruso won
today:
Myles Turner under 1.5 three pointers made - +105____________knicks vs. pacers
he's been under that total in 10 of his 14 playoff games and all of his last 5 games
.
above pick on Alex Caruso won
today:
Myles Turner under 1.5 three pointers made - +105____________knicks vs. pacers
he's been under that total in 10 of his 14 playoff games and all of his last 5 games
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 29, 2025
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 29th, 2025 at 4:54:45 AM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster
I'm not doubting your veracity but it would be more fun for everybody if you posted your picks before the games start - not the results afterwards
When I post an after the fact win (or loss) it is more for interest only as opposed to me showing how great a picker I am. I’d be really surprised if I’m better than 51% on my even chance type bets. Meaning I can’t beat a normal vig.
What I am good at is using the offers afforded me to eke out a small amount of cash. Emphasis on the word small.
I probably average 20-40 separate bets a night. I’m not posting them all. Just what you want to read is why I made that $5 bet against the Marlins because they had Alcantara on the mound, and parlaying it with the over, of course. He gave up 6 runs as I predicted…….. (but I lost anyway as Marlins score a late 10 runs…).
Here’s one…. I have 5 leg tennis parlay needing an Arthur Fils victory in the morning. Go Fils…
I also hedged a bit with his opponent, Munar, +6.5 games.
link to original post
Isn't it nice when you hedge and it looks like you are going to win both.. Up 7-6 7-6 and 1-2 in the third set.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
May 29th, 2025 at 6:15:35 AM
permalink
I've got an 'anybody but Scheffler' bet spread going for the Memorial tournament. Well, actually an 'anybody but S. or a darkhorse' bet spread [to win]. I'll come out slightly ahead unless he or a darkhorse wins. You could argue that the golfers left out aren't all that dark of a horse
I don't remember the set up of 'the field vs the favorite' betting situation since Tiger... pick other than S. to win and you get great odds, with Scheffler line +250 or so
No matter how good they are, winning it every time doesn't seem to happen, so I think it's a good bet, but we'll see.
I don't remember the set up of 'the field vs the favorite' betting situation since Tiger... pick other than S. to win and you get great odds, with Scheffler line +250 or so
No matter how good they are, winning it every time doesn't seem to happen, so I think it's a good bet, but we'll see.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on May 29, 2025
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 29th, 2025 at 8:45:21 AM
permalink
.
one more for today
George Springer under 0.5 runs scored -130 to -140 depending on the book__________athletics vs. blue jays -
Springer is in the midst of a slump
he's scored a run in only one of his last 13 games
.he's had only one hit in his last 6 games with 15 at bats
.
one more for today
George Springer under 0.5 runs scored -130 to -140 depending on the book__________athletics vs. blue jays -
Springer is in the midst of a slump
he's scored a run in only one of his last 13 games
.he's had only one hit in his last 6 games with 15 at bats
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 29th, 2025 at 10:10:35 AM
permalink
Quote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
George Springer under 0.5 runs scored -130 to -140 depending on the book__________athletics vs. blue jays -
Springer is in the midst of a slump
he's scored a run in only one of his last 13 games
.he's had only one hit in his last 6 games with 15 at bats
.
link to original post
How much time do you spend looking for situations you think are favorable? Is it a labor of love or a part time job?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 29th, 2025 at 11:07:20 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanHow much time do you spend looking for situations you think are favorable? Is it a labor of love or a part time job?
link to original post
I have spent a fair amount of time recently - I'm estimating one hour per day
I'm enjoying it right now
it's very possible that I will tire of it and give it a rest pretty soon
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 29th, 2025 at 2:39:16 PM
permalink
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanHow much time do you spend looking for situations you think are favorable? Is it a labor of love or a part time job?
link to original post
I have spent a fair amount of time recently - I'm estimating one hour per day
I'm enjoying it right now
it's very possible that I will tire of it and give it a rest pretty soon
.
link to original post
Enjoy it while it last. Hobbies are great, and if you can make a profit doing it even better.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 29th, 2025 at 5:44:58 PM
permalink
Quote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
George Springer under 0.5 runs scored -130 to -140 depending on the book__________athletics vs. blue jays -
Springer is in the midst of a slump
he's scored a run in only one of his last 13 games
.he's had only one hit in his last 6 games with 15 at bats
.
link to original post
Springer thanks you, you are his slump buster.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
May 30th, 2025 at 5:20:34 AM
permalink
.
split with my pics yesterday - won the NBA pick on Turner lost on the MLB pick on Springer as DRich had so much fun pointing out_________:)
today:
Luis Rengifo batting 9th for the Angels under 0.5 runs scored - - 210 to -222 - angels vs. guardians
he's scored one run in his last 10 games
.
split with my pics yesterday - won the NBA pick on Turner lost on the MLB pick on Springer as DRich had so much fun pointing out_________:)
today:
Luis Rengifo batting 9th for the Angels under 0.5 runs scored - - 210 to -222 - angels vs. guardians
he's scored one run in his last 10 games
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 30th, 2025 at 5:30:11 AM
permalink
Good call on Turner. But Springer was playing the A’s with a pitcher that is more suited to throw batting practice….
Had a 5 leg parlay that I thought lost…. Fearnley versus Humbert. I had Humbert. He lost the first set, was down a tad in the second, and retired due to injury. So that leg was voided. So I was credited with winning a four leg parlay. I had him on a different site and it was credited as a loss. Different sites, different rules.
I think it should be counted as a loss once one point is played.
I did really well last night. Went against Fever who are without Caitlin Clark. Second underdog was Oilers. Parlayed those two with a slight favorite and a boost for good hit. Plus Fils won but as DRich noted my hedge won as well.
On a sad note, BetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
Had a 5 leg parlay that I thought lost…. Fearnley versus Humbert. I had Humbert. He lost the first set, was down a tad in the second, and retired due to injury. So that leg was voided. So I was credited with winning a four leg parlay. I had him on a different site and it was credited as a loss. Different sites, different rules.
I think it should be counted as a loss once one point is played.
I did really well last night. Went against Fever who are without Caitlin Clark. Second underdog was Oilers. Parlayed those two with a slight favorite and a boost for good hit. Plus Fils won but as DRich noted my hedge won as well.
On a sad note, BetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
May 30th, 2025 at 6:02:57 AM
permalink
deleted
.
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
