Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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camapl
August 3rd, 2022 at 4:18:31 PM permalink
I have discovered a casino who does not adjust the future lines or at least they are slow to respond after Saturdays qualifying. Usually if a driver wins the pole, you see their odds cut at least in half. Or the action is frozen until they adjust accordingly. Last week, Tyler Reddick who is a great road course driver won the pole at Indy. His odds dropped from 10:1 to 5:1 at multiple books. However I was able to bet him at 10:1 at one independent book. He ends up winning the race and I collect.

Grant it that the pole sitter only accounts for 20% of the wins, but I think I have found an edge.

By the way, I like Ford to win the race at Michigan this week if you want to just bet on the manufacturer’s
DRich
DRich
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August 3rd, 2022 at 5:01:33 PM permalink
There was a race a few years ago that was a road course and Boris Said won the pole. Since he only raced once or twice a year on the road courses the casinos didn't even have him on the board. They did have the Field bet at something like 50-1 so I bet as much as I could on it. I think he finished second.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 3rd, 2022 at 10:57:33 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

I have discovered a casino who does not adjust the future lines or at least they are slow to respond after Saturdays qualifying. Usually if a driver wins the pole, you see their odds cut at least in half. Or the action is frozen until they adjust accordingly. Last week, Tyler Reddick who is a great road course driver won the pole at Indy. His odds dropped from 10:1 to 5:1 at multiple books. However I was able to bet him at 10:1 at one independent book. He ends up winning the race and I collect.

Grant it that the pole sitter only accounts for 20% of the wins, but I think I have found an edge.

By the way, I like Ford to win the race at Michigan this week if you want to just bet on the manufacturer’s
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Good find! I’ve made a bunch on NASCAR recently with odds boosts. I’ve gotten 8,9, or 10-1 on the pole sitter which is definitely +EV. I bet on other non pole sitter favorites as well if the pole sitter was not a top contender. Recently won on Denny Hamlin that way. VERY stressful watching the end praying there won’t be a caution which likely would have cost him the race. Cha Ching!
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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August 7th, 2022 at 4:30:50 PM permalink
Make that 8 straight wins for Ford at Michigan. Bet Ford Early at 4:1 on Friday night, came back today at bet it again at 5:1. Very nice payday for me today.
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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Joined: Dec 23, 2017
October 1st, 2022 at 10:07:52 PM permalink
For folks in Nevada, Circa has not adjusted their NASCAR lines after qualifying. You can still get the two pole sitters Bell and Larson at 24:1 and 19:1 and Chase Briscoe starting 5th at 55:1. Hamlin is starting 3rd, he is the favorite and still at 15:1. 35% if the winners at Talledega has come from the first two starting positions, 55% from the first 5.

I have big bets on Bell, Larson and Hamlin at 3 different books. Plus a handful of other drivers
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 2nd, 2022 at 3:45:23 AM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

For folks in Nevada, Circa has not adjusted their NASCAR lines after qualifying. You can still get the two pole sitters Bell and Larson at 24:1 and 19:1 and Chase Briscoe starting 5th at 55:1. Hamlin is starting 3rd, he is the favorite and still at 15:1. 35% if the winners at Talledega has come from the first two starting positions, 55% from the first 5.

I have big bets on Bell, Larson and Hamlin at 3 different books. Plus a handful of other drivers
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That’s likely +EV for you. Good find. I just checked my Caesars ap. There are SIXTEEN racers at 20-1 or shorter odds. 6 favorites at 12-1. My guess is they are expecting crashes galore making the final outcome more about luck than skill. I could be wrong, but being a playoff race some drivers who pre playoff might have been happy with a top 5 will be taking extra chances to win, this resulting in more crashes.
Good luck!
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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Joined: Dec 23, 2017
June 12th, 2023 at 12:59:52 PM permalink
This week at Sonoma, my biggest cash in NASCAR ever! Huge variance between various books on odds and you can also catch some books napping, keeping the lines open during qualifying or even better after qualifying without adjusting. You have to shop around but having the apps makes it easy.

I bet Truex at 30:1 earlier in the week. After qualifying he is starting 3rd in the 2nd row on a road course that is very difficult to pass. Books adjusted odds to 10:1. I found a books who didn’t adjust and still had him at 25:1. I bet him again. He has the best course history and the most wins at Sonoma and is a good road course driver. . He was 8:1 last year. He is having a better season this year, how do you justify 30:1? I also bet Denny Hamlin at 50:1 prequalify and he won the pole, books adjusted him down to 10:1. I also bet McDowell at 50:1 and books adjusted him down to 15:1, he finished 3rd last year. I also bet Kyle Busch pretty heavy at 10:1 prequalifying. He finished 2nd in the race but didn’t qualify well so his odds shot up to 20:1. My only prequalifying bet that went the other way.

Betting NASCAR prequalifying allows you to receive much higher odds on the drivers you think have a great chance on betting. You can also find books napping by not adjusting their odds. Or in the Darlington race last month, they had Hamlin a race favorite to finish top 10 at 7:1. He was 10:1 to win. That was an error by the book so I bet that on the app, kiosk and counter. If was finally corrected down to 2:1. That ticket was a big loser tho as he did not have a good race.
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