Super Bowl 56 Prop Bets
Poll
 | 4 votes (30.76%) | ||
| | 9 votes (69.23%) | ||
| | 2 votes (15.38%) | ||
| | 2 votes (15.38%) | ||
| | 3 votes (23.07%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) | ||
| | 4 votes (30.76%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.69%) |
13 members have voted
February 8th, 2022 at 10:52:02 AM
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Quote: JoemanI thought equines only kicked field goals!Quote: SOOPOOI noticed Mike listed one of the props as such…. In a game featuring Rams and Bengals…. Burro to score a TD?
Cute typo….
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I remember watching that movie as a kid. What I did not realize at the time was what a cast was involved in that movie. I watched it a year or so ago on Disney+ and I kept thinking "no way" every time a 'star' appeared.
I'm old.
February 8th, 2022 at 11:11:28 AM
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Quote: VegasriderQuote: IndyJeffreyQuote: ThatDonGuyOpening kickoff will not be a touchback (+170)
...
finally, according to Pro Football Reference, in 2021 the following were the touchback rates:
LA
season: 63.7% of kickoffs were touchbacks
playoffs: 11 of 18 (61.1%)
Cincinnati
season: 58.9%
playoffs: 12 of 19 (63.1%)
What does this say? In my small sample size, it appears that the opening kickoff in playoff games, seem to be touchbacks at a much higher rate than kickoffs in general.
Thoughts?
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They use a different ball for SB kick offs vs playoffs. Last 26 of 28 SB have resulted in a return. And one of the kickers was Justin Tucker who managed a touchback. Strongest leg in the league. It’s a commemorative ball, it’s like kicking a rock according to a kicker who has kicked off in the SB. Eventually this prop is going to become minus money,, last year was almost plus 300!
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I don't know about a "different ball", but to confirm Vegasrider's info...
2020 H.Butker kicks 68 yards from KC 35 to TB -3. J.Mickens to TB 23 for 26 yards (D.O'Daniel).
2019 M.Wishnowsky kicks 68 yards from SF 35 to KC -3. M.Hardman to KC 26 for 29 yards (J.Ward; D.Reed Jr.)
2018 G.Zuerlein kicks 64 yards from LA 35 to NE 1. C.Patterson pushed ob at NE 39 for 38 yards (G.Zuerlein).
2017 S.Gostkowski kicks 64 yards from NE 35 to PHI 1. C.Clement pushed ob at PHI 26 for 25 yards (P.Chung).
2016 M.Bosher kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to end zone, Touchback.
2015 G.Gano kicks 63 yards from CAR 35 to DEN 2. A.Caldwell to DEN 20 for 18 yards (F.Whittaker).
2014 S.Hauschka kicks 70 yards from SEA 35 to NE -5. D.Amendola to NE 18 for 23 yards (D.Shead).
2013 Steven Hauschka kicks off 71 yards, returned by Trindon Holliday for 20 yards (tackle by Derrick Coleman)
2012 J.Tucker kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback.
2011 Stephen Gostkowski kicks off 63 yards, returned by Jerrel Jernigan for 21 yards (tackle by Antwaun Molden)
2010 Mason Crosby kicks off 72 yards, returned by Antonio Brown for 38 yards (tackle by Mason Crosby)
2009 Pat McAfee kicks off 67 yards, returned by Courtney Roby for 20 yards (tackle by Aaron Francisco)
2008 Neil Rackers kicks off 66 yards, returned by Gary Russell for 24 yards (tackle by Tim Hightower)
2007 Stephen Gostkowski kicks off 72 yards, returned by Domenik Hixon for 25 yards (tackle by Pierre Woods)
2006 Adam Vinatieri kicks off 62 yards, returned by Devin Hester for 92 yards, touchdown
February 8th, 2022 at 1:15:43 PM
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Opening kick ball comes out of the box and pretty much is given to the kicker for KO. There is no time to massage it or mold it to their liking. Once the KO is over, THAT ball goes to the Hall of Fame as a commemorative ball.
Unless the kicker has an extraordinary strong leg, like Justin Tucker, most likely will not be a TB. As former SB kicker said, that ball is like kicking a rock.
Unless the kicker has an extraordinary strong leg, like Justin Tucker, most likely will not be a TB. As former SB kicker said, that ball is like kicking a rock.
February 8th, 2022 at 2:05:06 PM
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. If true that’s $26 I’ll never see again. I think it takes the kicker less than 30 seconds to ‘mold it’. I think whoever kicks off will mold it exactly as they like.Quote: VegasriderOpening kick ball comes out of the box and pretty much is given to the kicker for KO. There is no time to massage it or mold it to their liking. Once the KO is over, THAT ball goes to the Hall of Fame as a commemorative ball.
Unless the kicker has an extraordinary strong leg, like Justin Tucker, most likely will not be a TB. As former SB kicker said, that ball is like kicking a rock.
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February 8th, 2022 at 4:03:48 PM
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This will be my largest bet. They had a former kicker on VSIN and he explained why it’s so hard to kick the ball. I’m going with his experience and the trend, 26 of last 28 they have ran it out. Knowing my luck the opening kick will go out of bounds.
February 8th, 2022 at 4:27:24 PM
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Quote: VegasriderThis will be my largest bet. They had a former kicker on VSIN and he explained why it’s so hard to kick the ball. I’m going with his experience and the trend, 26 of last 28 they have ran it out. Knowing my luck the opening kick will go out of bounds.
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If it is out of bounds, that is a penalty, not a touchback.
February 8th, 2022 at 8:05:09 PM
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There is an advantage play on the coin toss since the obverse (heads) is heavier than the reverse (tails).
February 8th, 2022 at 8:13:36 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO. If true that’s $26 I’ll never see again. I think it takes the kicker less than 30 seconds to ‘mold it’. I think whoever kicks off will mold it exactly as they like.Quote: VegasriderOpening kick ball comes out of the box and pretty much is given to the kicker for KO. There is no time to massage it or mold it to their liking. Once the KO is over, THAT ball goes to the Hall of Fame as a commemorative ball.
Unless the kicker has an extraordinary strong leg, like Justin Tucker, most likely will not be a TB. As former SB kicker said, that ball is like kicking a rock.
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There’s a reason this prop bet opened with the “no” at +170 and it’s now hard to find it at even money.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 8th, 2022 at 8:38:35 PM
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If I recall there is a new ball for each and every play in the Super Bowl.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:00:22 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonIf I recall there is a new ball for each and every play in the Super Bowl.
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I find that hard to believe.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:17:44 AM
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If anyone is interested, you can download Circa’s sheets here:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/xmi5y5a9c837g3l/AAAxV3HGVYgmpAJ5xzroRkS_a?dl=0
Select Circa sports betting sheets, then scroll down to Super Bowl LVI Props 2021-2-13.pdf
Yeah, they put the wrong year in the file name.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/xmi5y5a9c837g3l/AAAxV3HGVYgmpAJ5xzroRkS_a?dl=0
Select Circa sports betting sheets, then scroll down to Super Bowl LVI Props 2021-2-13.pdf
Yeah, they put the wrong year in the file name.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 9th, 2022 at 8:38:44 AM
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I will always remember that moment too... for a specific reason.Quote: avianrandyAnyone remember when the colts played the bears in Super bowl? Colts kicked off and bears ran it back for a touchdown. Didn't mean to derail,but I will always have that memory.
I had a bunch of money... more than I should have, on the Bears scoring first. I forgot what the line was, but the Colts were favored to score first, by a lot more than what I thought they should be.
Sure, they were slight favorites to win the game, but to me, scoring first has to be at least a little bit closer to a 50-50 proposition. But several of the sportsbooks in Vegas had the Bears scoring first at +160 or whatever it was. It was too much to me. So that became my "best prop bet" that year. I put down money on the prop at least three and maybe four different sportsbooks in Vegas. (After putting money down on it at one book, the next book I went to had the line even higher, so of course I had to load up on it even more.)
I watched the game that Sunday with a few co-workers in an office at work. I couldn't believe it when I saw Hester run it back for a TD. When he passed the 50 yard line, I was already ecstatic, and happy as a clam, just thinking that the Bears were now almost in field goal range. And then yet he continued on and scored a TD.
I had won my prop bet on the first play of the game. I'll always remember that. I know two of my co-workers will remember it too, since they still bring it up from time to time.
February 9th, 2022 at 10:15:03 AM
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I always bet for a safety and overtime. Over the years I raised the bet on overtime so when it hit after about fifteen years of bets, I pretty much broke even.
In the 49ers win, the last play of the game was a safety. The next year, the first play from scrimmage was, as well. Two plays, two safety.
In the 49ers win, the last play of the game was a safety. The next year, the first play from scrimmage was, as well. Two plays, two safety.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 9th, 2022 at 2:03:24 PM
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Quote: billryanI always bet for a safety and overtime. link to original post
My window is open if you want to bet against me. I'll give you 7 to 1 on both. If it's a matter of trust, I don't mind escrowing the money with Axel.
In other news, here is a direct link to the Circa lines and the Westgate.
Last edited by: Wizard on Feb 11, 2022
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 9th, 2022 at 3:51:52 PM
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I am literally swamped with +EV opportunities from my 4 online sports books. The most recent one is literally free money. Allowed to bet $50 at 2-1 on Rams to score first. Other book had Bengals at +115 to score first. I bet $70 there on Bengals. I either make $30 if Rams score first, or $30.50 if Bengals score first. In general, I haven’t been using other sites as hedged for these bets, but I liked the free $30.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:37:50 PM
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I just uploaded the Boyd Gaming props.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 9th, 2022 at 4:51:37 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote: billryanI always bet for a safety and overtime. link to original post
My window is open if you want to bet against me. I'll give you 7 to 1 on both. If it's a matter of trust, I don't mind escrowing the money with Axel.
In other news, here is a direct link to the Circa lines and the Westgate.
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I'm up for a small wager. $25 on each? A smaller one works, as well. Your call.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 9th, 2022 at 5:01:59 PM
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I certainly hope I don't have to escrow $25🙏😂Quote: billryanQuote: WizardQuote: billryanI always bet for a safety and overtime. link to original post
My window is open if you want to bet against me. I'll give you 7 to 1 on both. If it's a matter of trust, I don't mind escrowing the money with Axel.
In other news, here is a direct link to the Circa lines and the Westgate.
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I'm up for a small wager. $25 on each? A smaller one works, as well. Your call.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
February 9th, 2022 at 5:24:58 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI certainly hope I don't have to escrow $25🙏😂Quote: billryanQuote: WizardQuote: billryanI always bet for a safety and overtime. link to original post
My window is open if you want to bet against me. I'll give you 7 to 1 on both. If it's a matter of trust, I don't mind escrowing the money with Axel.
In other news, here is a direct link to the Circa lines and the Westgate.
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I'm up for a small wager. $25 on each? A smaller one works, as well. Your call.
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I'd trust you for at least double that. Maybe triple.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 9th, 2022 at 7:28:34 PM
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Quote: billryanI'm up for a small wager. $25 on each? A smaller one works, as well. Your call.
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Accepted. You are betting $25 to win $175 on two bets: (1) safety in Super bowl, (2) Super bowl will go to overtime.
Please confirm my confirmation.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 9th, 2022 at 8:44:58 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote: billryanI'm up for a small wager. $25 on each? A smaller one works, as well. Your call.
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Accepted. You are betting $25 to win $175 on two bets: (1) safety in Super bowl, (2) Super bowl will go to overtime.
Please confirm my confirmation.
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Two separate $25 bets, as described above.Confirmed
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 10th, 2022 at 12:29:54 AM
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Here are the Willilam Hill props.
I see they have the Scorigami prop at these lines:
Yes +1600
No -6000
In this post, I calculated the fair probability at 0.017925. In other words, the fair line in the yes is +5500. Thus, both sides are negative.
By the way, if those lines look very stingy, my straight bet calculator says the house edge is 4.07%, which is less than the 4.54% of two lines at -110.
I see they have the Scorigami prop at these lines:
Yes +1600
No -6000
In this post, I calculated the fair probability at 0.017925. In other words, the fair line in the yes is +5500. Thus, both sides are negative.
By the way, if those lines look very stingy, my straight bet calculator says the house edge is 4.07%, which is less than the 4.54% of two lines at -110.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2022 at 8:24:22 AM
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”Both sides are negative”?Quote: Wizard…In other words, the fair line in the yes is +5500. Thus, both sides are negative.
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As you know, I’m not a big sports bettor so I don’t know. But, aren’t sports book lines ALWAYS negative on both sides? (Or at least that’s what they hope for…?)
Otherwise, where’s the vig?
Side note: When does your betting window close? I’m ready to send you my bets, but my wife and a friend of hers is looking at it and may want to get some of their own action. Hopefully I’ll send it tomorrow.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 10th, 2022 at 8:44:53 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: AlanMendelsonIf I recall there is a new ball for each and every play in the Super Bowl.
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I find that hard to believe.
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There will be 120 game balls. How many plays are there in a football game?
Here's just one article that mentions the 120 balls. Other articles talk about specific balls used for kicking.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox8.com/news/footballs-used-in-super-bowl-made-in-small-town-america/amp/
February 10th, 2022 at 9:00:53 AM
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A google search gave various results., some that don't make sense.
Deflategate or whatever you call it seemed to show they used 12 balls in that playoff game.
One says they use about 40 balls in the Super Bowl, and another says they can use as many as 120.
Game-used Super Bowl footballs are big money so I'm sure they switch them out as often as possible.
Aren't the refs tasked with checking the air pressure before, during, and after the game? That would be 360 air checks.
The NFL has used a different ball for kicks for at least a decade. Kickers and punters were manipulating the balls and often kicked with overinflated ones. Now the kicking ball is kept by officials and replaced only at that discretion. They used to use a fresh ball for each kick but after Tony Romo flubbed a hold and claimed the ball was too slick, they now number the balls and use them until an official thinks it is unsuitable.
Deflategate or whatever you call it seemed to show they used 12 balls in that playoff game.
One says they use about 40 balls in the Super Bowl, and another says they can use as many as 120.
Game-used Super Bowl footballs are big money so I'm sure they switch them out as often as possible.
Aren't the refs tasked with checking the air pressure before, during, and after the game? That would be 360 air checks.
The NFL has used a different ball for kicks for at least a decade. Kickers and punters were manipulating the balls and often kicked with overinflated ones. Now the kicking ball is kept by officials and replaced only at that discretion. They used to use a fresh ball for each kick but after Tony Romo flubbed a hold and claimed the ball was too slick, they now number the balls and use them until an official thinks it is unsuitable.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 10th, 2022 at 9:53:58 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBear”Both sides are negative”?
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I meant both sides from my perspective. An example of the alternative would be the no safety bet, where I perceive an advantage on the no safety side.
Speaking of which, my window will close Saturday evening.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 10th, 2022 at 1:31:08 PM
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Caesars has even money on coin toss! Both heads and tails at +100. Also team to win coin toss at even money for both teams. I get 0.2% in comps. So my $50 bets lined my pockets with two dimes in EV! Plus 10 tier credits!
February 10th, 2022 at 6:12:02 PM
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Can someone please explain this bet to me:
it’s the very first bet on page 1 of the Westgate prop sheets.
Is this picking a team to win?
Is it betting on the combined score over/under?
Something else?
I’m so confused. 😵💫
Thanks.
it’s the very first bet on page 1 of the Westgate prop sheets. Is this picking a team to win?
Is it betting on the combined score over/under?
Something else?
I’m so confused. 😵💫
Thanks.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 10th, 2022 at 6:22:31 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearCan someone please explain this bet to me:
Is this picking a team to win?
Is it betting on the combined score over/under?
Something else?
I’m so confused. 😵💫
Thanks.
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It’s the three main bets:
Bet the spread at -110. Rams -4.5 or Bengals +4.5
Bet the total at -110. Over or under 48.5
Bet the money line. Rams at -200. Bengals at +175.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 10th, 2022 at 6:29:30 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearCan someone please explain this bet to me:
Is this picking a team to win?
Is it betting on the combined score over/under?
Something else?
I’m so confused. 😵💫
Thanks.
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Going by the picture, I think they just listed their "regular bets" for the game in the "Props Sheet" (see link below for more details):
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting
Note: In the above link see, Money Line , Total and Point Spread ("Side", according to the "Westgate Picture")
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Edit:
When I started writing this, there were no replies, but the one unJon wrote above is correct.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2022
February 10th, 2022 at 6:37:59 PM
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Thanks. That makes sense, except…Quote: unJonQuote: DJTeddyBearCan someone please explain this bet to me:
Is this picking a team to win?
Is it betting on the combined score over/under?
Something else?
I’m so confused. 😵💫
Thanks.
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It’s the three main bets:
Bet the spread at -110. Rams -4.5 or Bengals +4.5
Bet the total at -110. Over or under 48.5
Bet the money line. Rams at -200. Bengals at +175.
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On the left side there are only two bet codes.
Since you listed six options, shouldn’t there be six codes?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 10th, 2022 at 7:06:44 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearThanks. That makes sense, except…Quote: unJonQuote: DJTeddyBearCan someone please explain this bet to me:
Is this picking a team to win?
Is it betting on the combined score over/under?
Something else?
I’m so confused. 😵💫
Thanks.
link to original post
It’s the three main bets:
Bet the spread at -110. Rams -4.5 or Bengals +4.5
Bet the total at -110. Over or under 48.5
Bet the money line. Rams at -200. Bengals at +175.
link to original post
On the left side there are only two bet codes.
Since you listed six options, shouldn’t there be six codes?
link to original post
I think it is the "rotation number" or "game number" , but I don't bet with US based books so not 100% sure how it works (see links below).
https://www.actionnetwork.com/lifestyle/las-vegas-sportsbook-betting-frequently-asked-questions
https://www.thelines.com/nevada/
In the first link, scroll down to the part that says "Q: What is a rotation number? "
In the second link, scroll down to the "Placing The Wager" section
February 10th, 2022 at 10:56:23 PM
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I'm totally dumb on sports betting.
What does -110 mean?
What does Rams -4 1/2 mean?
What does -110 mean?
What does Rams -4 1/2 mean?
February 11th, 2022 at 1:33:35 AM
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The -110 is "American Odds"
When it is written as a "negative number" it means "how much you would need to put down to win $100" .
When it is written as a "positive number" it means "how much you would win if you put $100 down".
So since -110 is a "negative number", it means $110 will net you $100 profit (if the bet wins)
Rams -4 1/2 is another way of writing Rams -4.5, and it just means that if you had a bet on the Rams at -4.5, then the Rams would need to win by 5 points (or more) for you to win the bet.
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GTG, written in a hurry, and spelling not checked
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Update (about 345 am, Pac Time):
In this post >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36905-super-bowl-56-prop-bets/2/#post840893 <<< click on the WoO link for further info about the common bet types and what they mean.
When it is written as a "negative number" it means "how much you would need to put down to win $100" .
When it is written as a "positive number" it means "how much you would win if you put $100 down".
So since -110 is a "negative number", it means $110 will net you $100 profit (if the bet wins)
Rams -4 1/2 is another way of writing Rams -4.5, and it just means that if you had a bet on the Rams at -4.5, then the Rams would need to win by 5 points (or more) for you to win the bet.
----
GTG, written in a hurry, and spelling not checked
----
Update (about 345 am, Pac Time):
In this post >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36905-super-bowl-56-prop-bets/2/#post840893 <<< click on the WoO link for further info about the common bet types and what they mean.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 11, 2022
February 11th, 2022 at 4:42:52 PM
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For your convenience, here are Super Bowl 56 prop bets from six different groups, as well as some previous Super Bowls.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 12th, 2022 at 9:20:06 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearFYI: Here’s last year’s discussion about Scoragami
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/35579-super-bowl-55/7/#post794309
link to original post
OK. If I read that post correctly the odds of a Scorigami to hit is 55 to 1. That said, FD is offering -3500 this afternoon. (And -800 for unique SB final score)
It seems to me no Scorigami is a good bet. Thoughts?
February 12th, 2022 at 9:46:21 AM
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A friend thinks this will be a very high scoring game. I don't disagree but don't think it will be a record-scoring game. He wants 12-1 that the losing team will have the highest point total of any losing team.
Is that a fair bet? I was thinking 10-1 but have nothing to support either line.
Is that a fair bet? I was thinking 10-1 but have nothing to support either line.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 12th, 2022 at 10:01:44 AM
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In order to lose that bet, the losing team would have to score at least 34 points. (The Pats scored 33 points yes still lost to the Eagles four years ago.)
So that's a minimum of 69 points scored. (34 + 35)
I don't see that happening... yet I'm not sure if offering 12-1 against it is fair or not. My guess is, yes, the odds against it are even higher than that, given the Rams defense.
How many times have the Rams or the Bengals been involved in a game this season in which 69 or more points were scored? Zero, I'm sure.
So that's a minimum of 69 points scored. (34 + 35)
I don't see that happening... yet I'm not sure if offering 12-1 against it is fair or not. My guess is, yes, the odds against it are even higher than that, given the Rams defense.
How many times have the Rams or the Bengals been involved in a game this season in which 69 or more points were scored? Zero, I'm sure.
February 12th, 2022 at 10:07:34 AM
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Quote: EdCollins
How many times have the Rams or the Bengals been involved in a game this season in which 69 or more points were scored? Zero, I'm sure.
link to original post
Yes, zero times
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 12th, 2022 at 1:34:10 PM
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Quote: IndyJeffreyQuote: DJTeddyBearFYI: Here’s last year’s discussion about Scoragami
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/35579-super-bowl-55/7/#post794309
link to original post
OK. If I read that post correctly the odds of a Scorigami to hit is 55 to 1. That said, FD is offering -3500 this afternoon. (And -800 for unique SB final score)
It seems to me no Scorigami is a good bet. Thoughts?
link to original post
Hard to say on scoragami. Most will be very high scores. The overall rules favoring the offenses have increased 38-36 type games. I don’t think I’d lay 35-1. Also, the harder XP likely increases scorigami likelihood. I think I like -800 for unique final score for the same reason.
February 13th, 2022 at 11:31:47 AM
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Caesars has a promo--bet $10 on 10 props. If you win 7 or more, get $56 free bets. Min odds of -200 for each prop. Here are my bets. No real rhyme or reason to many of them, other than generally favoring favorites. Not much money involved, but I think it's fun.
Matt Gay O 2.5 extra points
Kupp O 106.5 Yards
Burrow O 2.5 rushing attempts
Rams punt before TD
Rams receive opening kickoff
Sack before TD
Kupp to score and Rams win
Coin toss Bengals
Coin toss Tails (no vig +100)
2 point conversion attempt - Yes
Overall, I don't have much on the game. The biggest sweat is a $100 SB squares pool where they have different numbers for each quarter. I got poor numbers: Bengals (by quarter): 6,7,9,1. Rams (by quarter): 1, 2, 6, 1.
Also, managed to get "Will there be OT = Yes" for +1500. I bet $40. From what I've seen, approximate true odds should be ~~+800 or so.
Matt Gay O 2.5 extra points
Kupp O 106.5 Yards
Burrow O 2.5 rushing attempts
Rams punt before TD
Rams receive opening kickoff
Sack before TD
Kupp to score and Rams win
Coin toss Bengals
Coin toss Tails (no vig +100)
2 point conversion attempt - Yes
Overall, I don't have much on the game. The biggest sweat is a $100 SB squares pool where they have different numbers for each quarter. I got poor numbers: Bengals (by quarter): 6,7,9,1. Rams (by quarter): 1, 2, 6, 1.
Also, managed to get "Will there be OT = Yes" for +1500. I bet $40. From what I've seen, approximate true odds should be ~~+800 or so.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
February 13th, 2022 at 2:36:42 PM
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Quote: TinManCaesars has a promo--bet $10 on 10 props. If you win 7 or more, get $56 free bets. Min odds of -200 for each prop. Here are my bets. No real rhyme or reason to many of them, other than generally favoring favorites. Not much money involved, but I think it's fun.
Matt Gay O 2.5 extra points
Kupp O 106.5 Yards
Burrow O 2.5 rushing attempts
Rams punt before TD
Rams receive opening kickoff
Sack before TD
Kupp to score and Rams win
Coin toss Bengals
Coin toss Tails (no vig +100)
2 point conversion attempt - Yes
Overall, I don't have much on the game. The biggest sweat is a $100 SB squares pool where they have different numbers for each quarter. I got poor numbers: Bengals (by quarter): 6,7,9,1. Rams (by quarter): 1, 2, 6, 1.
Also, managed to get "Will there be OT = Yes" for +1500. I bet $40. From what I've seen, approximate true odds should be ~~+800 or so.
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I did that Caesars thing but I thought you had to be -130 as the biggest favorite on each bet. If you are correct I totally blew it. If I am correct you blew it!
Anyway, I just added it all up. I have 40 separate bets at a total of $892 at risk. With all the promos I think I have an EV of a little more than +$100. I already mentioned the two that add up to a no variance +$30. I think I do best overall with an OBJ first TD.
February 13th, 2022 at 2:48:04 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
I did that Caesars thing but I thought you had to be -130 as the biggest favorite on each bet. If you are correct I totally blew it. If I am correct you blew it!
Anyway, I just added it all up. I have 40 separate bets at a total of $892 at risk. With all the promos I think I have an EV of a little more than +$100. I already mentioned the two that add up to a no variance +$30. I think I do best overall with an OBJ first TD.
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You are correct—it’s -130. It looks like I did it correctly at the time but misremembered the number.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
February 13th, 2022 at 4:23:17 PM
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2nd qtr.
That’s a missed extra point, right?
That’s a missed extra point, right?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 13th, 2022 at 4:40:40 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBear2nd qtr.
That’s a missed extra point, right?
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Curious about how that’s scored too. I have a small bet on two point conversion attempt = yes. I suspect it goes as a missed extra point.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
February 13th, 2022 at 4:43:52 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBear2nd qtr.
That’s a missed extra point, right?
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I guess it would depend which book you bet with.
If I was running a book I would call it a failed attempt 2-pt conversion.
But that is just me.
February 13th, 2022 at 5:05:57 PM
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I’d call it a missed XP. Teams have the option of placing the ball on the 2 (or3?) yard line to go for a two point conversion. Or the 15 to go for an XP. But of course if by some chance they got into the end zone it does count as a 2 point conversion.
Butttttt….. if the kicker never struck the ball then he did not attempt an XP. Glad I didn’t bet it.
And to be honest, I didn’t see it!
Butttttt….. if the kicker never struck the ball then he did not attempt an XP. Glad I didn’t bet it.
And to be honest, I didn’t see it!
February 13th, 2022 at 5:07:59 PM
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Failed 2pt? In the replay, the kicker brought his leg around almost to the spot where the ball should have been.Quote: ksdjdjQuote: DJTeddyBear2nd qtr.
That’s a missed extra point, right?
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I guess it would depend which book you bet with.
If I was running a book I would call it a failed attempt 2-pt conversion.
But that is just me.
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And besides, don’t they line up further back for the 2pt play?
So I’m thinking no kick / failed extra point.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 13th, 2022 at 5:19:10 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearFailed 2pt? In the replay, the kicker brought his leg around almost to the spot where the ball should have been.Quote: ksdjdjQuote: DJTeddyBear2nd qtr.
That’s a missed extra point, right?
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I guess it would depend which book you bet with.
If I was running a book I would call it a failed attempt 2-pt conversion.
But that is just me.
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And besides, don’t they line up further back for the 2pt play?
So I’m thinking no kick / failed extra point.
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Now having seen it, it is definitely a missed 2 point conversion. The ‘quarterback’ (the holder) attempted to pass for two points. The kicker kicking air I doubt counts as an XP try. I wonder if some of the sports books will pay off missed XP to garner good publicity?
In other news, I am a big favorite to end ‘up’, as I had OBJ for first TD, as well as over 50 yds in some parlays. Also have Chase over 3.5 yards rushing. There was a backwards pass to him that he ended up running for 4 yards, so unless he loses yards later that is good. I’m also happy about the opening touchback. I stand by my ‘Indoor stadium, no weather’ analysis.
Since I only slightly want the Rams to win, I think all the ‘action’ I have is adding fun to the game for me.
