Advice hedging Super Bowl bet?

When I signed up for DraftKings’ online casino, one of the bonuses they gave me was a $100 free futures bet to pick the winner of the Super Bowl.

I chose the Rams, at +1200.

Now, of course, I’d like to hedge and maximize my payout without worrying about who actually wins the game, so I came here to ask the experts. What would be the best way to do so, using whatever combination of new-user signup promos and wagers that are possible across the various apps? I’m fortunate that they’re all available to me, since DK was the only casino app I used.

Signing up for FanDuel and taking their “$5 wins $280” promo on the Bengals seems like a no-brainer start.

I live in Michigan, if it helps.

In addition to the $1,200, do you get the original $100 back too if the Rams win?

No; it was a free bet valued at $100, which means I can’t cash it out early either. Sorry I was unclear.

Quote: DW

Signing up for FanDuel and taking their “$5 wins $280” promo on the Bengals seems like a no-brainer start.

Do NOT do this or any similar promos on other sites. Fanduel has a $1000 risk-free offer for your first bet which is much more valuable. You can't do both.

Here is a link that may be helpful >> https://www.lineups.com/betting/michigan-sports-betting/

Note: I haven't looked at any of them, so I don't which one has the best bonus(es) overall.

Also, my advice would be to find the best promotion with the best odds and hedge the full $1200 potential Rams payout*** on the Bengals - money line or against the spread (whatever you think is the better bet^^^) .

***: The easiest way to do this IMO, is to convert the odds to "decimal odds" and divide $1200 by that figure, see example below:

Example: Say the Bengals are +166.66 Money Line, then I would have $450 on at that price, because +166.66 = $2.6666... (decimal) and $1200 / 2.6666.... = $450. Therefore $450 is the amount you should have on @ +166.66 (for a guaranteed $750 profit, no matter who wins).

Here is a link to convert odds >> https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

^^^: Take into account what type of bonus it is to work this out, see below:

1: If the bonus is included as part of the return if the bet wins, then you can bet either against the spread or money line on the Bengals.
2: If the bonus is not included as part of the return if the bet wins, only take the money line on the Bengals.

(Edit about 410pm, pac time)
3: If the bonus is only paid / "stake refunded as a bonus" if the bet loses, then the money line on the Bengals is the better bet.

----
Update (about 4pm, Pac Time)

After "hedging the Rams bet", any leftover bonuses can be used however you like, but I recommend having "lots of small to medium bets", rather than "one big bet".

The only thing I can say for sure is that the decision as to what bonus to avail yourself of when signing up for a new Sportsbook is a totally separate decision on how to hedge your Rams bet. The signup bonuses in NY for the 4 have had a value of nearly $7k. They had the low offer of $280 but way better free bet offers.

Bet $400 at +180 on Bengals money line. If Bengals win you get $720.

If Rams win you win $800.

How’s that?

Quote: DW

No; it was a free bet valued at $100, which means I can’t cash it out early either. Sorry I was unclear.
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Can you use it again if you win?

Quote: Wizard

Quote: DW

No; it was a free bet valued at $100, which means I can’t cash it out early either. Sorry I was unclear.
link to original post

Can you use it again if you win?
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My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
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That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $444.44 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: $444.44 * 1.7 = $755.56
If Rams win: $1200 - $444.44 = $755.56

Note: Corrected 2/3/22 8:14 AM PST

Quote: DW

When I signed up for DraftKings’ online casino, one of the bonuses they gave me was a $100 free futures bet to pick the winner of the Super Bowl.

I chose the Rams, at +1200.

Now, of course, I’d like to hedge and maximize my payout without worrying about who actually wins the game, so I came here to ask the experts. What would be the best way to do so, using whatever combination of new-user signup promos and wagers that are possible across the various apps? I’m fortunate that they’re all available to me, since DK was the only casino app I used.

Signing up for FanDuel and taking their “$5 wins $280” promo on the Bengals seems like a no-brainer start.

I live in Michigan, if it helps.
link to original post

Okay, so this is an easy one.

They have Firekeepers Online Sportsbook in Michigan and their current promotion for sports is a $500 wager match. Anyway, you're going to ideally want to deposit $500 and make a straight up $500 bet on the Bengals which is currently at +170 for the line.

The reason that we are doing this with the Firekeepers First Bet Match promotion is because you are going to get the $500, "Risk-Free," bet win or lose. This setup is also going to reduce your variance significantly.

What's going to happen if the Rams win is that you will have $1200 - $500 (Losing Bengals Bet) = +$700 and you will also have the $500 "Free Bet," at Firekeepers.

In the event that the Bengals win, then that profit will be:

500 + (500 * 170/100) = $1350 ($850 of this is profit) AND you will also have the Firekeepers Free Bet.

When it comes to the Free Bet, you can either offset it or not. You'll get more value not offsetting it, I guess. If you want to offset it, however, then simply find a half point line at any sport and make the Free Bet on one of the teams or Over/Under...when you have done that, use a DIFFERENT online sportsbook to make a $250 cash bet on the opposite side of the half point line, which will be really easy if you win on DraftKings as you will have $1200 on DK and a $500 Free Bet at Firekeepers.

So, with the Free Bet, let's say UNLV plays Duke and the Totals is Over/Under 150.5 (Is that reasonable for basketball?)

Anyway, you will bet UNDER 150.5 with your $500 Free Bet and then make a $250 cash bet at a different sportsbook on OVER 150.5. Here are the possible results assuming both lines are -110:

500 * (100/110) = $454.54 - $250 (losing cash bet) = $204.54 Additional Cash Profit

250 * (100/110) = $227.27 (Additional Cash Profit, Free Bet Loses)

If you're really nitty, then you can make the Cash Bet $240 to make the possibilities +$218.18 or +$214.54 if you want them tighter.

Okay, so let's remember how much we make in profits for each event. we have the college hoops game above, so:

Bengals win @ +170 on $500 Cash Bet = $850 cash profit.

Rams Win Futures @ +1200 + losing $500 cash bet = $700 profit.

Again, let's go with the $240 Cash Bet made in opposition to the free $500 bet for the second step, which basically has a return of what we will call $215 as an estimation. That means that your profits will either be about $1065 or $915 depending on who wins the Super Bowl.

***NOTE*** At Firekeepers, it appears that you can do BOTH the casino deposit match as well as this sports bet match, but I am sure there are time limitations, so make sure you read the full terms and conditions if you want to do both promotions. I put the +EV of the Firekeepers Casino Promotion at about +$480 expectation (assumes the terms haven't changed since last I looked), so you can figure out why that is or PM me for more information on that.