Advice hedging Super Bowl bet?

When I signed up for DraftKings’ online casino, one of the bonuses they gave me was a $100 free futures bet to pick the winner of the Super Bowl.

I chose the Rams, at +1200.

Now, of course, I’d like to hedge and maximize my payout without worrying about who actually wins the game, so I came here to ask the experts. What would be the best way to do so, using whatever combination of new-user signup promos and wagers that are possible across the various apps? I’m fortunate that they’re all available to me, since DK was the only casino app I used.

Signing up for FanDuel and taking their “$5 wins $280” promo on the Bengals seems like a no-brainer start.

I live in Michigan, if it helps.

In addition to the $1,200, do you get the original $100 back too if the Rams win?

No; it was a free bet valued at $100, which means I can’t cash it out early either. Sorry I was unclear.

Quote: DW

Signing up for FanDuel and taking their “$5 wins $280” promo on the Bengals seems like a no-brainer start.

Do NOT do this or any similar promos on other sites. Fanduel has a $1000 risk-free offer for your first bet which is much more valuable. You can't do both.

Here is a link that may be helpful >> https://www.lineups.com/betting/michigan-sports-betting/

Note: I haven't looked at any of them, so I don't which one has the best bonus(es) overall.

Also, my advice would be to find the best promotion with the best odds and hedge the full $1200 potential Rams payout*** on the Bengals - money line or against the spread (whatever you think is the better bet^^^) .

***: The easiest way to do this IMO, is to convert the odds to "decimal odds" and divide $1200 by that figure, see example below:

Example: Say the Bengals are +166.66 Money Line, then I would have $450 on at that price, because +166.66 = $2.6666... (decimal) and $1200 / 2.6666.... = $450. Therefore $450 is the amount you should have on @ +166.66 (for a guaranteed $750 profit, no matter who wins).

Here is a link to convert odds >> https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

^^^: Take into account what type of bonus it is to work this out, see below:

1: If the bonus is included as part of the return if the bet wins, then you can bet either against the spread or money line on the Bengals.
2: If the bonus is not included as part of the return if the bet wins, only take the money line on the Bengals.

(Edit about 410pm, pac time)
3: If the bonus is only paid / "stake refunded as a bonus" if the bet loses, then the money line on the Bengals is the better bet.

----
Update (about 4pm, Pac Time)

After "hedging the Rams bet", any leftover bonuses can be used however you like, but I recommend having "lots of small to medium bets", rather than "one big bet".

The only thing I can say for sure is that the decision as to what bonus to avail yourself of when signing up for a new Sportsbook is a totally separate decision on how to hedge your Rams bet. The signup bonuses in NY for the 4 have had a value of nearly $7k. They had the low offer of $280 but way better free bet offers.

Bet $400 at +180 on Bengals money line. If Bengals win you get $720.

If Rams win you win $800.

How’s that?

Quote: DW

No; it was a free bet valued at $100, which means I can’t cash it out early either. Sorry I was unclear.
link to original post

Can you use it again if you win?

Quote: Wizard

Quote: DW

No; it was a free bet valued at $100, which means I can’t cash it out early either. Sorry I was unclear.
link to original post

Can you use it again if you win?
link to original post

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post

That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $444.44 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: $444.44 * 1.7 = $755.56
If Rams win: $1200 - $444.44 = $755.56

Note: Corrected 2/3/22 8:14 AM PST

Quote: DW

When I signed up for DraftKings’ online casino, one of the bonuses they gave me was a $100 free futures bet to pick the winner of the Super Bowl.

I chose the Rams, at +1200.

Now, of course, I’d like to hedge and maximize my payout without worrying about who actually wins the game, so I came here to ask the experts. What would be the best way to do so, using whatever combination of new-user signup promos and wagers that are possible across the various apps? I’m fortunate that they’re all available to me, since DK was the only casino app I used.

Signing up for FanDuel and taking their “$5 wins $280” promo on the Bengals seems like a no-brainer start.

I live in Michigan, if it helps.
link to original post

Okay, so this is an easy one.

They have Firekeepers Online Sportsbook in Michigan and their current promotion for sports is a $500 wager match. Anyway, you're going to ideally want to deposit $500 and make a straight up $500 bet on the Bengals which is currently at +170 for the line.

The reason that we are doing this with the Firekeepers First Bet Match promotion is because you are going to get the $500, "Risk-Free," bet win or lose. This setup is also going to reduce your variance significantly.

What's going to happen if the Rams win is that you will have $1200 - $500 (Losing Bengals Bet) = +$700 and you will also have the $500 "Free Bet," at Firekeepers.

In the event that the Bengals win, then that profit will be:

500 + (500 * 170/100) = $1350 ($850 of this is profit) AND you will also have the Firekeepers Free Bet.

When it comes to the Free Bet, you can either offset it or not. You'll get more value not offsetting it, I guess. If you want to offset it, however, then simply find a half point line at any sport and make the Free Bet on one of the teams or Over/Under...when you have done that, use a DIFFERENT online sportsbook to make a $250 cash bet on the opposite side of the half point line, which will be really easy if you win on DraftKings as you will have $1200 on DK and a $500 Free Bet at Firekeepers.

So, with the Free Bet, let's say UNLV plays Duke and the Totals is Over/Under 150.5 (Is that reasonable for basketball?)

Anyway, you will bet UNDER 150.5 with your $500 Free Bet and then make a $250 cash bet at a different sportsbook on OVER 150.5. Here are the possible results assuming both lines are -110:

500 * (100/110) = $454.54 - $250 (losing cash bet) = $204.54 Additional Cash Profit

250 * (100/110) = $227.27 (Additional Cash Profit, Free Bet Loses)

If you're really nitty, then you can make the Cash Bet $240 to make the possibilities +$218.18 or +$214.54 if you want them tighter.

Okay, so let's remember how much we make in profits for each event. we have the college hoops game above, so:

Bengals win @ +170 on $500 Cash Bet = $850 cash profit.

Rams Win Futures @ +1200 + losing $500 cash bet = $700 profit.

Again, let's go with the $240 Cash Bet made in opposition to the free $500 bet for the second step, which basically has a return of what we will call $215 as an estimation. That means that your profits will either be about $1065 or $915 depending on who wins the Super Bowl.

***NOTE*** At Firekeepers, it appears that you can do BOTH the casino deposit match as well as this sports bet match, but I am sure there are time limitations, so make sure you read the full terms and conditions if you want to do both promotions. I put the +EV of the Firekeepers Casino Promotion at about +$480 expectation (assumes the terms haven't changed since last I looked), so you can figure out why that is or PM me for more information on that.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post

That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: $324.32 * 2.7 = $875.68
If Rams win: $1200 - $324.32 = $875.68
link to original post

Some online sportsbooks will essentially allow you to trade in your bet slip in exchange for an immediate payout, but whether or not it will allow you depends on the type of bet that you have made.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post

That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: $324.32 * 2.7 = $875.68
If Rams win: $1200 - $324.32 = $875.68
link to original post

I apologize, but doesn't multiplying by 2.7 on the Bengals bet give you the total return as opposed to the amount gained? For the amount to be gained, I like:

(324.32 * 170/100) = $551.34

When you multiply by 2.7, then you have to subtract the original bet amount from the other side to get the profit, so it would be:

(324.32 * 2.7) - 324.32 = $551.34 (Rounded)

Which means he would profit either $875.68 or $551.34 depending on who wins. In order to tighten that range, he would want to bet more on the Bengals. A cash bet of $450 would get you to a pretty tight range:

If Rams win: $1200 - $450 = $750

If Bengals win: (450 * 170/100) = $765 (Profit)

You could bet a few fewer dollars on the Bengals cash bet (literally, a few) if you wanted to tighten the $15 dollar gap.

However, in a previous post, I believe I found an excellent promotion available in Michigan that you can use for the Bengals bet to lead to even better profits.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post

That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: $324.32 * 2.7 = $875.68
If Rams win: $1200 - $324.32 = $875.68
link to original post

I ‘think’ you got it wrong? Since he has to put up $324.32 of his own real money to make the bet, if the Bengals win he only gets $324.32 x 1.7 = $551.34 in profit.

So Bengals win $551.34 in profit
Rams win $875.68 in profit.

Edit…. I see I’m second to notice….

Soopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.

Quote: Wizard

Soopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.
link to original post

Don't be so hard on yourself! I basically teach myself the math that I have learned how to do by making mistakes and then figuring out what my mistakes are and correcting them. Anyone could have made that mistake and I definitely will make that same mistake, sooner or later, if I'm in a hurry.

do the right thing when this happens and edit your posts to remove the corrected math

type in a good joke

Quote: Wizard

Soopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.
link to original post

Off by $324..... How about 108 sit ups for 3 straight days as a fitting punishment?

Full disclosure.... with all the sign ups I've done recently and the requirement for me to make (for me) a huge bet, I've been analyzing these hedge options quite carefully.

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!


link to original post

Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between $4 and $21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!


link to original post

Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between $4 and $21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).
link to original post

factor not included: skyrocketing variance as you go from that +100 to +3100

solution: huge bankroll and vast number of 'trials' [so to speak]

it's a problem

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!


link to original post

(snip: cut my part of the quote /reply from here and pasted it near the bottom of this post, so I didn't have to quote it twice in the same reply)

factor not included: skyrocketing variance as you go from that +100 to +3100

solution: huge bankroll and vast number of 'trials' [so to speak]

it's a problem
link to original post

You are right, definitely a factor***.
***:At "fair odds", having 5 bets @ 4/1 has about a 67.2% chance of at least one winning,
and having 30 bets @ 29/1 has about a 63.8% chance of at least one winning.

But the main reason for me is that "really big prices are generally bad value, compared to the estimated chances / historical data^^^ "

^^^: See link below, about the "Safety bet in the Super Bowl"

https://www.espn.com.au/chalk/story/_/id/33195033/super-bowl-betting-unlikely-play-swing-millions-dollars

Note: I know the article above is about a "prop bet", but it holds fairly true for most bets "with a small estimated chance of winning".

Note 2: I know this may seem like a bad example since they are in the Super Bowl now, but at the start of the season the Bengals were 100/1+ with most books, yet 499/1 to 599/1 was probably closer to the correct odds at that time (according to what was traded on betfair at the time).

Quote: ksdjdj

Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between $4 and $21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).
link to original post

To find the "Sweet Spot": it is already partly explained above (generally the shorter the odds on offer, the closer they are to "fair odds "). But most bonuses don't include the bonus as part of the return if you win (which is why the graph posted by Wiggins is also fairly accurate### , for this type and similar bonuses).

###: Except you also have to take into account that if +100 is offered, then the bookie thinks that the fair win chance is probably around 48%, so the EV of betting a $100 bonus @ +100 is probably around $48 (instead of $50).

Also, lets say a bookie offers you "fair odds" for a game with Team A @ -400 and Team B @ +400.
Using this type of bonus on Team A would be worth "20% x the value of the bonus", but Team B would be worth "80% x the value of the bonus". Therefore, for that game Team B would have the better bonus EV.

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!


link to original post

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

Once again... for the OP.... your decision can be based solely on guaranteeing a certain win, but when I have such an opportunity I tend to only partially hedge. Maybe guarantee $200 win, but still exceed $1k if Rams win. Heck.... how about this....

Bet $550 on Bengals +4.5 to win $500 (at -110)

3 possible outcomes...

A. Rams win by 5 or more You win $700
B. Rams win by 1-4. You win $1700
C. Bengals win You win $650

That would make it quite fun for you watching!

Quote: SOOPOO

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

It's not hard to find off-market lines on DK with good value. It's your money so do what you want, but using free bets on even-money or small dogs is lighting cash on fire.

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

It's not hard to find off-market lines on DK with good value. It's your money so do what you want, but using free bets on even-money or small dogs is lighting cash on fire.
link to original post

How big do you go? +500? +1000? More?

I sort of knew that.... but I'm still learning....

Thanks for the perhaps needed slap in the face....

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

It's not hard to find off-market lines on DK with good value. It's your money so do what you want, but using free bets on even-money or small dogs is lighting cash on fire.
link to original post

How big do you go? +500? +1000? More?

I sort of knew that.... but I'm still learning....

Thanks for the perhaps needed slap in the face....
link to original post

This reply is just about "maximizing the EV of the bonus" (for the "stake not included in the return" type of bonus).

There is no hard and fast rule, but using a site like betfair is a good start to work out the estimated chances.
Then from there you would see which one has the best bonus EV, by multiplying the estimated chance by the odds (see "good choice for tonight" below):

See "Sacramento Kings money line" odds in the link here >>> Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors - Tonight

"Good choice for tonight": Using the "Kings - money line" in the above link combined with betfair, I get the following estimated EV for the bonus:
Estimated win chance (at the time of this post using betfair): ~11%
Odds on offer (at the time of this post using the above link): +700 (Kings - money line)
Estimated bonus bet value: " estimated win chance x odds " = 11% x +700 = 11% x 7 = 77%
Therefore the bet on the Kings is worth about 77% x the value of the bonus bet.

Note 1: I have no opinion on this game, but it is probably the best one to bet on tonight from a "maximizing bonus EV" point of view.

Note 2: EV isn't the only thing to consider, but if you are allowed to split your bonus into "small enough parts to have a decent chance of at least one bet winning" or "if you have plenty of money and only care about maximizing the value", then it is the most important factor.

Note 3: IMO, the expected win rate is the next most important factor to consider. Using a bonus, would you rather^*^ bet on something at 10000/1 that has a 0.008% chance of winning, or something at 10/1 that has a 7.8% chance of winning.
^*^: I personally would rather bet on the 10/1 option, even though the EV is 2% better on the 10000/1 option (78% EV vs 80% EV) mainly because at similar estimated EVs, I prefer the "lower variance option".

Note 4: I haven't mentioned "bonus bets and bank roll management", but there has been plenty written about that on this site in other threads (some people would say this is more important than maximizing EV, but it all depends on what your goal is).

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Update (about 605 pm, Pac Time):

Even though it is obvious which is the better one to have a bonus bet on, I will compare the above with betting on the Lakers money line, in the link here >>> LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS - Tonight

Using the "Lakers - money line" in the above link combined with betfair, I get the following estimated EV for the bonus:
Estimated win chance (at the time of this post using betfair): ~42.37%
Odds on offer (at the time of this post using the above link): +140 (Lakers - money line)
Estimated bonus bet value: " estimated win chance x odds " = 42.37% x +140 = 42.37% x 1.4 = ~ 59.32%
Therefore the bet on the Lakers is worth about 59.32% x the value of the bonus bet.

77% - 59.32% = 17.68%, so the bonus bet EV is 17.68% better betting on the Kings - money line.

Side Note: This is interesting to me, but according to the estimated chances using betfair, the Lakers - money line has an estimated RTP slightly above 100%, when betting with "real money" rather than "bonus funds".

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Side Note: This is interesting to me, but according to the estimated chances using betfair, the Lakers - money line has an estimated RTP slightly above 100%, when betting with "real money" rather than "bonus funds".
link to original post

At the time of this post, after watching betfair for the last few minutes, the estimated chances for the Lakers went about as low as 39%, but have now stabilized to a bit above 40%, and the Kings went to 11.5%, but are now back to 11%.

Ty very much Wiggins and ksdjdj. I guess I was aware…. but just want to ‘feel good’ about winning more often than 10% of the time, even though I understand I ‘should have’ bet on the Kings. I did do a few parlays that won…. taking 4 around even money bets got me to a long enough shot…. and certainly feels better than betting on the worst team in basketball to beat the second best team. My parlay today is two for two…. but the third game I have Kings +13.5. I think they are down 18 mid second quarter…..

DK gives tons of free bets. I have just spread mine around on NBA title futures. As long as Nets don’t win I should be in good shape.

Quote: SOOPOO

Ty very much Wiggins and ksdjdj. I guess I was aware…. but just want to ‘feel good’ about winning more often than 10% of the time, even though I understand I ‘should have’ bet on the Kings. I did do a few parlays that won…. taking 4 around even money bets got me to a long enough shot…. and certainly feels better than betting on the worst team in basketball to beat the second best team. My parlay today is two for two…. but the third game I have Kings +13.5. I think they are down 18 mid second quarter…..
link to original post

For bonus bets, there is nothing wrong with betting on parlays, it is better EV*** wise than having the Lakers (or any team) @ +140, in relation to "bonus EV".

***: For a winning 4-team parlay, as long as you get paid ~9.5/1 (or more) then it is better than betting "any one team" @ +140.

Also, the Kings bet was just one example of a "good +EV bet for that type of bonus".

Lastly, I would probably have done it like this (if I had received that bonus):

. Bet Kings 7/1 with the Book that is offering the bonus.
. Bet Warriors 0.114/1^^^ with Betfair to lock in an "equal profit no matter who wins",

^^^: 0.12/1 before the 5% commission (I don't know if you can bet with betfair in the US, the same way we can in Australia).

If someone did it the above way, then they would have locked in about "71.6% x the value of the bonus bet", instead of an estimated EV of ~77% (though, the 71.6% would have been a guaranteed profit).

----
Going by the scores on ESPN, they have currently brought it back to 12 points behind, 9:55 to go in the 4th quarter (so good luck, hope you win).

----
Update:
Now back to 18 points behind with 8:02 to go, hope they rally again.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Ty very much Wiggins and ksdjdj. I guess I was aware…. but just want to ‘feel good’ about winning more often than 10% of the time, even though I understand I ‘should have’ bet on the Kings. I did do a few parlays that won…. taking 4 around even money bets got me to a long enough shot…. and certainly feels better than betting on the worst team in basketball to beat the second best team. My parlay today is two for two…. but the third game I have Kings +13.5. I think they are down 18 mid second quarter…..
link to original post

For bonus bets, there is nothing wrong with betting on parlays, it is better EV*** wise than having the Lakers (or any team) @ +140, in relation to "bonus EV".

***: For a winning 4-team parlay, as long as you get paid ~9.5/1 (or more) then it is better than betting "any one team" @ +140.

Also, the Kings bet was just one example of a "good +EV bet for that type of bonus".

Lastly, I would probably have done it like this (if I had received that bonus):

. Bet Kings 7/1 with the Book that is offering the bonus.
. Bet Warriors 0.114/1^^^ with Betfair to lock in an "equal profit no matter who wins",

^^^: 0.12/1 before the 5% commission (I don't know if you can bet with betfair in the US, the same way we can in Australia).

If someone did it the above way, then they would have locked in about "71.6% x the value of the bonus bet", instead of an estimated EV of ~77% (though, the 71.6% would have been a guaranteed profit).

----
Going by the scores on ESPN, they have currently brought it back to 12 points behind, 9:55 to go in the 4th quarter (so good luck, hope you win).

----
Update:
Now back to 18 points behind with 8:02 to go, hope they rally again.
link to original post

So when the Kings were down around 10 I hedged and got Warriors -11.5! They ended up winning by 12 , so I won the parlay AND the hedge. Plus my other +EV bet of Lakers +3 (+EV because I get a bonus for ‘bench points scored’) also was a big comeback to cover.

I have a bunch of offers for extra value on SB prop bets. I think we usually make a separate thread for those so I’ll wait to discuss my options.

This is a tough one. If I were you, I'd hedge the bet against the Broncos by taking a bet on the spread. So, if you think Denver is going to win, you can take a bet on the spread to minimize your loss. It doesn't matter whether the Broncos win by 1 or 20 points. The spread should be in the Broncos favor (meaning they will likely win by 2 or more points). If the spread is not available, then I'd take a bet on the money line. Hope it helps!