Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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moses
January 4th, 2022 at 10:12:35 AM permalink
Quote: moses

Quote: unJon

Quote: DRich

None of those scenarios consider ties amongst the playoff contenders. What are the odds of a tie game in Week 18?
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Fun scenario of the day:

Jax beats Colts
Steelers beat Ravens

Then the late Sunday game between Chargers and Raiders gets interesting. While still win and in, both teams would be in the playoffs with a tie. What incentives for collusion! Four quarters of kneel downs!
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So if Steelers, Chargers, Raiders end in a 3 way tie. Steelers are out?
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Yes. H2H both teams beat the Steelers, so Conference records do not become relevant as a tiebreaker.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:15:51 AM permalink
Quote: moses



So if Steelers, Chargers, Raiders end in a 3 way tie. Steelers are out?



Yes, Steelers lost to both the Raiders and Chargers, so they would lose a tie breaker with all 3 teams.

But the thing that is REAALY going to cost the Steelers is a tie win Detroit Lions. If you tie a 1 win team, you don't deserve the playoffs. LOL.
moses
moses
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:20:20 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Quote: moses



So if Steelers, Chargers, Raiders end in a 3 way tie. Steelers are out?



Yes, Steelers lost to both the Raiders and Chargers, so they would lose a tie breaker with all 3 teams.

But the thing that is REAALY going to cost the Steelers is a tie win Detroit Lions. If you tie a 1 win team, you don't deserve the playoffs. LOL.
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I guess the same could be said about Colts. If they can't be Jaguars they don't deserve playoffs.
kewlj
kewlj
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:26:04 AM permalink
Quote: moses



I guess the same could be said about Colts. If they can't be Jaguars they don't deserve playoffs.



Well what about the Eagles? Eagles are in the playoffs and didn't beat a team with a winning record. The closest is New Orleans who is 8-8, might end up with a winning record if they win their last game.

It just seems like you should have to beat SOMEBODY with a winning record to make the playoffs, not just all losing teams. Either way, seems like a pretty good sign of a team not going very far. :/ (and that coming from an Eagles fan)
moses
moses
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:40:17 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Quote: moses



I guess the same could be said about Colts. If they can't be Jaguars they don't deserve playoffs.



Well what about the Eagles? Eagles are in the playoffs and didn't beat a team with a winning record. The closest is New Orleans who is 8-8, might end up with a winning record if they win their last game.

It just seems like you should have to beat SOMEBODY with a winning record to make the playoffs, not just all losing teams. Either way, seems like a pretty good sign of a team not going very far. :/ (and that coming from an Eagles fan)
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I agree. AND the Eagles could sit all their starters on Saturday without effecting their status.

This takes us back to my original plan. Win 10 and in.
kewlj
kewlj
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:49:45 AM permalink
Quote: moses



I agree. AND the Eagles could sit all their starters on Saturday without effecting their status.



The Eagles situation is weirder than people realize.

the Eagles are the 7 seed. If they win and SF loses they move to 6 seed. If they lose and Sf loses and N.O. wins they move to 6 seed. Otherwise they remain the 7 seed.

So originally the Eagles-Dallas game was scheduled for Sunday night, meaning they would have known if winning helps them. That game has been moved to SATURDAY night now, so they play first and won't know.

Again, the Eagles can move up by losing, if SF loses to Rams which seems a good posibility, so why would the Eagles play starters?

Now originally, I was thinking it might be Dallas resting starters, but Dallas can move from a 4 seed to a 2 seed with a win and a little help. That is a difference of a home playoff game the second week of playoffs, so that is a pretty big deal. So Dallas should be playing their starters and the Eagles resting theirs, as near as I can figure.
kewlj
kewlj
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:57:20 AM permalink
And by the way, the line movement seems to already be reflecting this as Dallas opened at -3.5 and is now -7/-7.5
moses
moses
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:57:30 AM permalink
Not much difference between a 6 and 7 seed. They could play Rams, Bucs, or Cards. If they beat Dallas they won't play them the next week.

Of those 4 teams Dallas is most inconsistent. So they are better off losing.

If Dallas could jump to a 3 seed that avoids facing Cards or Rams.
kewlj
kewlj
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January 4th, 2022 at 11:07:59 AM permalink
I don't think the Eagles can beat ANY of those 4 teams. :(

The stats show the Eagles have run the ball better the second half of the season, which coincides with their winning. But that has all been against bad, losing teams. Tampa Bay and the Rams have the top running defenses. Nobody runs against them. So I see the Eagles scoring very little against them. Dallas, has too much offense. The Eagles will never be able to keep up with them.

I am not that familiar with the Cardinals defense in terms of ranking against the run. Maybe they would be the team I give them a shot against, but it would still be a long shot. The Eagles, despite being MY team, are simply not a playoff team and shouldn't be in the playoffs.

New Orleans really should be the final seed. they have a good defense which can keep them in most games. Hell 2 weeks ago, they shut out Tampa Bay. Unfortunately for New Orleans the Eagles beat them during the regular season when they weren't playing well, so that will prevent them from beating out the Eagles. Their only way in is a 3 way tie with Eagles and SF, in which case, Eagles would be 6 seed and N.O. 7 seed and SF out
Joeman
Joeman
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January 4th, 2022 at 11:36:16 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If Indy loses, and the rest of the dominos fall into place so that both the Raiders and Chargers are in the playoffs, do you expect a competitive game? Do you think the starters play all the way
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Assuming there is no hard collusion, I expect it to be a competitive game and starters will play the entire game, barring a blowout. Think about it. If you were the Raiders and saw that the Chargers decided to rest their starters, you'd play your starters and kick the Chargers' a$$. Why 'hope' for a tie, when you can guarantee a victory?

But this is all moot anyway because it hinges on the Jags beating the Colts.
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