Super Bowl LVI - Estimated Odds...
January 30th, 2022 at 1:16:50 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
"My Estimated Opening Odds for the Super Bowl... " can be thrown out the window if one game is a "blowout" and the other game is a "close finish" (see link above for my early estimated odds for potential Super Bowl match ups).
January 30th, 2022 at 1:20:49 PM
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Quote: kewlj(snip)
For the first game, I like the cheifs -7 and the over 54.5. On a normal weekend, I wouldn't bet either as I don't like either wager all that much. Being championship weekend, I am putting my standard small wager on both. (snip)
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I know anything can happen, but it is looking good*** so far.
***: One book has the live odds as "Chiefs -19.5 and over 64.5" (edited, after the penalty that just happened)
2nd Edit: Big stop by the Bengals, it shifted the live line and total to -13.5 and 59.5.
January 30th, 2022 at 1:25:10 PM
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See what happens after halftime when the chiefs usually play better.
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January 30th, 2022 at 1:29:59 PM
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Quote: Marcusclark66See what happens after halftime when the chiefs usually play better.
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That’s not true at all this season. Chiefs have very much been a 1Q/1H team. Last week was different. But overall this season.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 30th, 2022 at 1:32:45 PM
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Okay we’ll see. You can root for the Bengals, might help them bro.
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January 30th, 2022 at 1:33:32 PM
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Quote: Marcusclark66Okay we’ll see. You can root for the Bengals, might help them bro.
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I hate the Bengals. Was just providing accurate data.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 30th, 2022 at 2:13:04 PM
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Great "momentum shift" for the Bengals.
Edit: Bengals 18 down back to a tied game, great stuff !
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Edit 2 (224PM Pac Time): Another great pick, this time Chiefs have it.
Edit: Bengals 18 down back to a tied game, great stuff !
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Edit 2 (224PM Pac Time): Another great pick, this time Chiefs have it.
January 30th, 2022 at 3:15:00 PM
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Quote: Marcusclark66Okay we’ll see. You can root for the Bengals, might help them bro.
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There you go.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 30th, 2022 at 3:19:14 PM
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Yep, you got it.
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January 30th, 2022 at 3:19:40 PM
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I know it wasn't listed as one of my bets, but I had 6600 to win 2000 on Chiefs Money Line***
***: With the main book that I use, if the team I back are ahead by 17 (or more) points any time during the game, then the bet is automatically graded as a winner.
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Great win by Bengals.
***: With the main book that I use, if the team I back are ahead by 17 (or more) points any time during the game, then the bet is automatically graded as a winner.
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Great win by Bengals.
January 30th, 2022 at 3:23:46 PM
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When will the NFL players learn that the heads (obverse) of coins is heavier and coins are more likely to land tails (reverse) up?
January 30th, 2022 at 3:43:26 PM
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Quote: Marcusclark66Yep, you got it.
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I was rooting for KC.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 30th, 2022 at 3:51:38 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: Marcusclark66Yep, you got it.
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I was rooting for KC.
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Problem is, KC watched the Vikings and tried to copy how the Vikings deteriorate after halftime with whatever lead they have.
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January 30th, 2022 at 6:47:15 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm not big on handicapping, but I find lines are often a bit off on the end of season games. In this case, I find both games today to be roughly evenly matched. Thus, I bet on both underdogs -- SF and Cincy as well as the under in the Cincy game.
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Just sayin'.
SF covered with +3.5 and the over/under on the Cincy game was 54.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 30th, 2022 at 7:04:54 PM
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Onto the Super Bowl.
I, again, show the teams to be roughly evenly matched. This is assuming no home field advantage to the Rams. Normally, I think home field advantage is worth 2.5 points, but I don't think this will hold true in the Super Bowl. Why? To answer that, we must ask why there is a home field advantage in the first place. As I've said in old posts, I think it is referee bias. Ultimately, sports is a business and fans get a better value and pay more money for tickets when their team wins at home. I'm sure referees will vehemently deny any bias, but everybody knows that money talks. All that said, I don't think the Super Bowl referees will feel pressure either way.
One might argue the effect of the fans. I have no basis of comparison, but I suspect the fans will be split roughly 50/50. Los Angeles has always had fickle football fans. I don't know much about who has first rights to the seats, but being from the LA area, I could see the locals selling their tickets. Today's game (against SF) seemed to have about 40% SF fans.
The Pinnacle line is Bengals +4 and the over/under is 50.
I absolutely like the Bengals. I think the over/under is close to fair and don't take a position on that.
I, again, show the teams to be roughly evenly matched. This is assuming no home field advantage to the Rams. Normally, I think home field advantage is worth 2.5 points, but I don't think this will hold true in the Super Bowl. Why? To answer that, we must ask why there is a home field advantage in the first place. As I've said in old posts, I think it is referee bias. Ultimately, sports is a business and fans get a better value and pay more money for tickets when their team wins at home. I'm sure referees will vehemently deny any bias, but everybody knows that money talks. All that said, I don't think the Super Bowl referees will feel pressure either way.
One might argue the effect of the fans. I have no basis of comparison, but I suspect the fans will be split roughly 50/50. Los Angeles has always had fickle football fans. I don't know much about who has first rights to the seats, but being from the LA area, I could see the locals selling their tickets. Today's game (against SF) seemed to have about 40% SF fans.
The Pinnacle line is Bengals +4 and the over/under is 50.
I absolutely like the Bengals. I think the over/under is close to fair and don't take a position on that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 30th, 2022 at 7:08:24 PM
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Quote: WizardOnto the Super Bowl.
I, again, show the teams to be roughly evenly matched. This is assuming no home field advantage to the Rams. Normally, I think home field advantage is worth 2.5 points, but I don't think this will hold true in the Super Bowl. Why? To answer that, we must ask why there is a home field advantage in the first place. As I've said in old posts, I think it is referee bias. Ultimately, sports is a business and fans get a better value and pay more money for tickets when their team wins at home. I'm sure referees will vehemently deny any bias, but everybody knows that money talks. All that said, I don't think the Super Bowl referees will feel pressure either way.
One might argue the effect of the fans. I have no basis of comparison, but I suspect the fans will be split roughly 50/50. Los Angeles has always had fickle football fans. I don't know much about who has first rights to the seats, but being from the LA area, I could see the locals selling their tickets. Today's game (against SF) seemed to have about 40% SF fans.
The Pinnacle line is Bengals +4 and the over/under is 50.
I absolutely like the Bengals. I think the over/under is close to fair and don't take a position on that.
link to original post
I don’t claim to be a good handicapper at all. But in my head I set the line at Rams -2.5 and O/U of 48. I love Bengals at 4.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 30th, 2022 at 8:40:53 PM
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Quote: WizardOnto the Super Bowl.
(snip)
The Pinnacle line is Bengals +4 and the over/under is 50.
(snip)
I absolutely like the Bengals. I think the over/under is close to fair and don't take a position on that.
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Quote: unJon(snip)
I don’t claim to be a good handicapper at all. But in my head I set the line at Rams -2.5 and O/U of 48. I love Bengals at 4.
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I like the Bengals @ +4 as well.
Even though the winning margin was by 3 points for both games, the Bengals win "looked more impressive to me".
Also, I know it wasn't caught, but that last throw by Jimmy G seemed great, especially on replay.
Hope I don't miss those odds, but I tried to get on the Bengals @ +170 ( the betting site is now "down for maintenance").
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Quote: Wizard(snip)
By the way, the no three-point margin of victory bet on the Super Bowl I often find to have a small advantage, especially if you shop around for a good line.
(snip)
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Hey Wiz,
Can you explain the reasoning behind the small advantage "no three-point margin of victory bet on the Super Bowl" (or point me to a link if you have already written about it) ? Thanks
I just had these bets (to win by exactly 3):
Bengals Over 51.5: 574 to win 25830 (45/1)
Bengals Under 59.5: 644 to win 25760 (40/1)
Rams Over 51.5: 609 to win 24360 (40/1)
Rams Under 57.5: 861 to win 24108 (28/1)
Reminder: I can cancel / or partially cancel these bets, with the book that I am betting with
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Update (~915 PM, Pac Time):
If the "Super Bowl was played tomorrow", I think that the Rams @ -4.0 to -4.5 points is about right***.
***: Mainly due to the current injuries for both teams.
But since there is two weeks to recover, I have this as my Early Game Odds Estimate - "Super Bowl":
Bengals (+2.25) : ~$2.36 (+136) / Rams (-2.25) : ~$1.74 (-136)
Note: For the above "Odds Estimate", I assumed that the HFA for the game is close to 0 (even though it is being played in LA).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 30, 2022
January 30th, 2022 at 9:53:20 PM
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There’s a Sportsbook I use that has the following two SB bets: “Will the game go to overtime?” Yes = +1300. They also have a three-way market for “Result at end of 4th quarter”. The “tie” bet is +1500.
Am I missing something or is that just an extra +200 for the exact same bet? Same Sportsbook.
Am I missing something or is that just an extra +200 for the exact same bet? Same Sportsbook.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
January 30th, 2022 at 9:56:46 PM
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Going by the current Pinnacle odds, it may be good that I couldn't get on the Bengals @ +170 (I still plan on backing the Bengals, at the moment).
But if you like the Rams, you can still get on @ -170 with "Treasure Island", see link here >>> link <<< as at Mon, Jan 31 12:50 AM EDT (according to their website).
But if you like the Rams, you can still get on @ -170 with "Treasure Island", see link here >>> link <<< as at Mon, Jan 31 12:50 AM EDT (according to their website).
January 30th, 2022 at 10:08:25 PM
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Quote: TinManThere’s a Sportsbook I use that has the following two SB bets: “Will the game go to overtime?” Yes = +1300. They also have a three-way market for “Result at end of 4th quarter”. The “tie” bet is +1500.
Am I missing something or is that just an extra +200 for the exact same bet? Same Sportsbook.
link to original post
I don't know if you are missing anything, but I sometimes see strange odds with the same Sports Book as well (see examples below):
Ex 1: I saw the Bengals +275 money line, and then I saw Bengals +280 @ +1.0 (so an extra 5 on the odds and if they lost by exactly 1 point, then the bet would have been a "push"),
Ex 2: I think it was about a couple of seasons ago, when I got Verstappen to come in the top 3 @ -200^^^, and in a different section of the same book I could get him "not to finish on the podium" @ +250^^^.
^^^: The figures used here are for illustrative purposes so they may not be correct, but I definitely "locked in a guaranteed profit" on Verstappen, when I had those bets.
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Update (about 1020 PM, Pac Time):
A 3rd example would be this:
A few hours ago, I could get the Bengals to win by exactly 3 @ 22/1, but if I mixed it in with a total of 59.5 I could get 80/1 on the "Bengals by 3 and over", and 40/1 on the "Bengals by 3 and under", for a combined total odds of about 26.2/1 (or about ~18% better potential RTP).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 30, 2022
January 31st, 2022 at 6:10:38 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjCan you explain the reasoning behind the small advantage "no three-point margin of victory bet on the Super Bowl" (or point me to a link if you have already written about it) ? Thanks
link to original post
If we put in 4 and 50 for the line and total, my NFL prop bet calculator says the fair line FOR a 3-point margin of victory is +610. Of course, that means the fair line on the no is -610. I'm quite sure there will be lines in Vegas on the no side where you don't lay to lay that much. The reasoning is simply based on historical games from 2000 to 2014, looking at how the spread and total affect the outcome.
I plan to start a separate thread for Super Bowl 56 prop bets once somebody releases them.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 31st, 2022 at 6:15:52 AM
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I rarely bet favorites. But Rams -4 is an easy win.
This is a very bad matchup for the Bengals. The Rams defense will spend the entire game in Cincy's backfield. Burrow won't finish the game.
This is a very bad matchup for the Bengals. The Rams defense will spend the entire game in Cincy's backfield. Burrow won't finish the game.
January 31st, 2022 at 6:32:19 AM
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Quote: unJonQuote: Marcusclark66Okay we’ll see. You can root for the Bengals, might help them bro.
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I hate the Bengals. Was just providing accurate data.
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Is providing accurate data still allowed here?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
January 31st, 2022 at 12:01:04 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote: ksdjdjCan you explain the reasoning behind the small advantage "no three-point margin of victory bet on the Super Bowl" (or point me to a link if you have already written about it) ? Thanks
link to original post
If we put in 4 and 50 for the line and total, my NFL prop bet calculator says the fair line FOR a 3-point margin of victory is +610. Of course, that means the fair line on the no is -610. I'm quite sure there will be lines in Vegas on the no side where you don't lay to lay that much. The reasoning is simply based on historical games from 2000 to 2014, looking at how the spread and total affect the outcome.
I plan to start a separate thread for Super Bowl 56 prop bets once somebody releases them.
link to original post
Thanks,
So that means the bets that I had are probably still "good value" , because I got about +850 for either team to win by 3 in the Super Bowl (not including the chance to middle on the totals)
Also, I couldn't find the prop you are looking for, after looking at Pinnacle, William Hill / Caesars*** and bet365.
***: I did notice that they have Bengals +4.5 (so they are the best so far, for anyone that wants to back the Bengals).
January 31st, 2022 at 2:31:21 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip) if you like the Rams, you can still get on @ -170 with "Treasure Island", see link here >>> link <<< as at Mon, Jan 31 12:50 AM EDT (according to their website).
link to original post
Rams @ -180 is now the best odds for them, as at Mon, Jan 31 05:28 PM EDT (according to the Vegas Insider website).
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(update: about 235 pm, Pac time)
If you like the Rams, I recommend you bet now as they are -4 @ -110 (or -3.5 @ -120), and
if you like the Bengals, I think you should wait until you can get at least +4.5.
Main Reason: To me, it looks like the Rams odds are still shortening at the moment.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 31, 2022
January 31st, 2022 at 2:51:18 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjSo that means the bets that I had are probably still "good value" , because I got about +850 for either team to win by 3 in the Super Bowl (not including the chance to middle on the totals)
Yes, absolutely. Unusual to find a good bet on the "yes" on that one. I think somebody hung a bad line.
Quote:Also, I couldn't find the prop you are looking for, after looking at Pinnacle, William Hill / Caesars*** and bet365.
***: I did notice that they have Bengals +4.5 (so they are the best so far, for anyone that wants to back the Bengals).
link to original post
I don't think anyone will put out the props until late this week. Usually the Westgate is the first. I set the over/under on their release at noon Thursday.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 31st, 2022 at 4:11:19 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote: ksdjdjSo that means the bets that I had are probably still "good value" , because I got about +850 for either team to win by 3 in the Super Bowl (not including the chance to middle on the totals)
Yes, absolutely. Unusual to find a good bet on the "yes" on that one. I think somebody hung a bad line.
(snip)
link to original post
Originally I thought you meant something like, "for some reason the Super Bowl didn't follow close enough to the historical average compared to the rest of the season". But then after I asked the question, I realized that 53 Super Bowls probably wouldn't be enough to go by (even if all 53 failed to have 3 as the winning margin).
Also, they consistently put up bad lines for the "win by 3^^^" early*** , and sometimes on the "win by 7" as well.
^^^: I also found it strange that they let me put on to win about $22k+ ### for the " win by 3 bet ", but they limited me to win $2k for the "money line bet that I had on the Bengals @ +170" (maybe that was a good thing, since I think the odds will drift a little on the Bengals).
###: This turns into about a $50k profit if the Bengals win with the following scores: 31-28, 30-27, 29-26, and 28-25
and about a $47k profit if the Rams win with the following scores : 29-26 and 28-25
***: Too bad, I only managed to bet on the last two games "to win by 3" of the "divisional round", as I missed out on the "good value" odds for first two games, because I was asleep at the time recovering from Covid.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 31, 2022
February 1st, 2022 at 4:32:06 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip) if you like the Rams, you can still get on @ -170 with "Treasure Island", see link here >>> link <<< as at Mon, Jan 31 12:50 AM EDT (according to their website).
link to original post
Rams @ -180 is now the best odds for them, as at Mon, Jan 31 05:28 PM EDT (according to the Vegas Insider website).
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(update: about 235 pm, Pac time)
If you like the Rams, I recommend you bet now as they are -4 @ -110 (or -3.5 @ -120), and
if you like the Bengals, I think you should wait until you can get at least +4.5.
Main Reason: To me, it looks like the Rams odds are still shortening at the moment.
link to original post
There may be some news^^^ coming through, as Pinnacle have removed their Super Bowl markets
The Rams currently @ -4.5 looks good to me*** , if that is the team you want to back
Hold off, if you want to back the Bengals .
^^^: I don't know what the news is yet (if any).
***: This is my opinion based on the " expected line movement" only, I still personally like the Bengals (even though that can change with any new information that may be coming soon).
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Update (about 438 pm, Pac time):
They have now re-opened their Super Bowl market, the Pinnacle odds below are correct (as of the time of this update):
Rams: -205 ML (-106 @ -4.5 ATS) / Bengals: +182 ML (-104 @ +4.5 ATS)
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Update (about 455 pm, Pac time): according to Vegas Insider, Wynnbet still has the Rams -4 @ -110.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 1, 2022
February 2nd, 2022 at 3:10:27 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj
link to original post
link to original post
Even though I can't access Vegas insider at the moment, I just had the rest of my bet on the Bengals because I think the prices have stabilized for now.
So, here are my bets.
1(a): ~$1176 to win $2000 on the Bengals, Money Line
1(b); $6514 to win $11399.5 on the Bengals, Money Line
note: the average price of 1(a) and 1(b) is about +174
2(a): 574 to win 25830 (45/1) on the Bengals by 3 and Over 51.5
2(b): 644 to win 25760 (40/1) on the Bengals by 3 and Under 59.5
3(a): 609 to win 24360 (40/1) on the Rams by 3 and Over 51.5.
3(b): 861 to win 24108 (28/1) on the Rams by 3 and Under 57.5:
February 3rd, 2022 at 5:29:31 AM
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Quote: TinManThere’s a Sportsbook I use that has the following two SB bets: “Will the game go to overtime?” Yes = +1300. They also have a three-way market for “Result at end of 4th quarter”. The “tie” bet is +1500.
Am I missing something or is that just an extra +200 for the exact same bet? Same Sportsbook.
link to original post
You are not missing something. The line maker is the one missing something.
Also…. The line seems to be Rams -4.5 everywhere now. This Bengals +4.5
February 3rd, 2022 at 4:47:34 PM
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Quote: WizardQuote: ksdjdjCan you explain the reasoning behind the small advantage "no three-point margin of victory bet on the Super Bowl" (or point me to a link if you have already written about it) ? Thanks
link to original post
If we put in 4 and 50 for the line and total, my NFL prop bet calculator says the fair line FOR a 3-point margin of victory is +610. Of course, that means the fair line on the no is -610. I'm quite sure there will be lines in Vegas on the no side where you don't lay to lay that much. The reasoning is simply based on historical games from 2000 to 2014, looking at how the spread and total affect the outcome.
I plan to start a separate thread for Super Bowl 56 prop bets once somebody releases them.
link to original post
Amongst other prop bets, William Hill / Caesars has put up odds for the "Will The Game Be Decided By Exactly 3 Points ?" .
The yes is currently +400, and the no is -500.
https://www.williamhill.com/us/ny/bet/football/a7e864ca-cc38-48b0-8177-2b0d239570ed/los-angeles-rams-at-cincinnati-bengals
February 4th, 2022 at 2:08:07 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: WizardQuote: ksdjdjCan you explain the reasoning behind the small advantage "no three-point margin of victory bet on the Super Bowl" (or point me to a link if you have already written about it) ? Thanks
link to original post
If we put in 4 and 50 for the line and total, my NFL prop bet calculator says the fair line FOR a 3-point margin of victory is +610. Of course, that means the fair line on the no is -610. I'm quite sure there will be lines in Vegas on the no side where you don't lay to lay that much. The reasoning is simply based on historical games from 2000 to 2014, looking at how the spread and total affect the outcome.
I plan to start a separate thread for Super Bowl 56 prop bets once somebody releases them.
link to original post
Amongst other prop bets, William Hill / Caesars has put up odds for the "Will The Game Be Decided By Exactly 3 Points ?" .
The yes is currently +400, and the no is -500.
https://www.williamhill.com/us/ny/bet/football/a7e864ca-cc38-48b0-8177-2b0d239570ed/los-angeles-rams-at-cincinnati-bengals
link to original post
I just noticed Caesars put up a prop bet of +100 on heads and +100 on tails, well done to them (I don't remember seeing that before).
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Super Bowl update:
According to Vegas Insider:
ATS: The Rams -4 is available with some books, but most are Rams -4.5 (opened Rams -3.5).
Money Line: the Rams -190 and the Bengals +175 are currently the best odds on offer (opened -170 / +150).
Total: Seems like everyone is happy to sit on 48.5 at the moment (opened at 50.5)
Pinnacle went from +179 to +174 on the Bengals some time in the last 24 hours, but Betfair went +182 to +184 on the "Blue" side (the "to back" side).
I am not happy that the early ticket counts^^^ are as follows:
Money Line*** : Rams 24% / Bengals 76%
Spread*** : Rams 29% / Bengals 71%
^^^: In and of itself that isn't a problem, but the line hasn't really changed the way I would have hoped with those types of counts. When this happens, it often means the sports book operators think the smart money will come for the Rams / and / or they are confident that the public are wrong.
I still think the market is fairly stable, but we will see what happens later today (Pac Time).
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Edit (forgot the ticket count for the totals and the direct link to where I got the info)
The totals*** are: 23% on the over, and 77% on the under.
***: https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/super-bowl-56-betting-update-cincinnati-bengals-vs-los-angeles-rams/
February 4th, 2022 at 4:44:19 AM
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I bet Tails on the +100 coin flip market. Once heard that the heads side of coins is typically more elaborate and therefore heavier. They don’t use real coins so probably both sides elaborate but still it’s no vig +100
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
February 6th, 2022 at 12:30:49 PM
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I know this is the SB thread, but I didn't want to start a new one just for the Pro Bowl.
Anyway, at the current rate of play it looks like the over should hit sometime in the 2nd quarter (based on 3 TD and 6-7 minutes of play in the 1st Quarter).
I don't know why they opened the total @ 45.5 according to Vegas Insider, but I am happy that I took the over 62.5 to win $100 (should have bet a lot more).
Lastly, too bad no books that I can bet with offer the "1st score a touchdown" on the Pro Bowl anymore (used to get $1.60 a few years ago with one book, for any NFL game).
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Update (~1235 pm, Pac Time):
Welp, I should have been watching the game instead of writing this post, as there haven't been any more scores in the 1st q, with 20 seconds to go.
Anyway, at the current rate of play it looks like the over should hit sometime in the 2nd quarter (based on 3 TD and 6-7 minutes of play in the 1st Quarter).
I don't know why they opened the total @ 45.5 according to Vegas Insider, but I am happy that I took the over 62.5 to win $100 (should have bet a lot more).
Lastly, too bad no books that I can bet with offer the "1st score a touchdown" on the Pro Bowl anymore (used to get $1.60 a few years ago with one book, for any NFL game).
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Update (~1235 pm, Pac Time):
Welp, I should have been watching the game instead of writing this post, as there haven't been any more scores in the 1st q, with 20 seconds to go.
February 7th, 2022 at 2:22:05 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj
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link to original post
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Going by Betfair^^^ and Pinnacle^^^ , if you like the Rams then the -175 with "Treasure Island" is currently the best money line odds for them, see link here >>> link <<< as at Mon, Feb 7 05:08 PM EDT (according to their website).
^^^: Averaging the odds on Betfair and Pinnacle, the Rams should be about -187, so if you are just using that as a guide then the -175 is obviously good value.
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Update (about 230 pm, Pac time):
According to the above link, the Bengals are +176 with Circa (which is currently the best Vegas Money Line odds for them).
ATS: Rams -4 @ -112 and Bengals +4.5 @ -110 (are currently the best ATS Vegas odds for each team).
February 10th, 2022 at 5:56:10 PM
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I wasn't going to post today, but some interesting news came through, see link here >>> link <<<
Best Vegas*** odds / lines for the Rams are: -175 Money Line (ML) and -3.5 Against The Spread (ATS) (-110)
Best Vegas*** odds / lines for the Bengals are: +170 ML and +4.5 ATS (-110)
***: According to the link here >>>link <<< as at " Thu, Feb 10 08:30 PM EDT "
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Other Markets:
Pinnacle currently have:
Rams: -194 ML and -4 ATS @ -106
Bengals: +173 ML and +4 ATS @ -104
Note: From my observations, Pinnacle have gone as high as +183 ML for the Bengals, since I last wrote about them (so +173 is the shortest I have seen them for a while).
Using Betfair as another guide for "estimating fair prices", I have:
Rams: -180 ML and -4 ATS @ -102
Bengals: +180 ML and +4 ATS @ +102
Note: These figures are the "rounded average" using the "best odds available for each outcome on Betfair" (on both the back and lay sides)
Note 2: If you have never heard of back and lay, then in simpler terms they just mean "bet that X will happen" (back) and "bet that X won't happen" (lay).
Best Vegas*** odds / lines for the Rams are: -175 Money Line (ML) and -3.5 Against The Spread (ATS) (-110)
Best Vegas*** odds / lines for the Bengals are: +170 ML and +4.5 ATS (-110)
***: According to the link here >>>link <<< as at " Thu, Feb 10 08:30 PM EDT "
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Other Markets:
Pinnacle currently have:
Rams: -194 ML and -4 ATS @ -106
Bengals: +173 ML and +4 ATS @ -104
Note: From my observations, Pinnacle have gone as high as +183 ML for the Bengals, since I last wrote about them (so +173 is the shortest I have seen them for a while).
Using Betfair as another guide for "estimating fair prices", I have:
Rams: -180 ML and -4 ATS @ -102
Bengals: +180 ML and +4 ATS @ +102
Note: These figures are the "rounded average" using the "best odds available for each outcome on Betfair" (on both the back and lay sides)
Note 2: If you have never heard of back and lay, then in simpler terms they just mean "bet that X will happen" (back) and "bet that X won't happen" (lay).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2022
February 12th, 2022 at 12:26:05 PM
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At this time I don't know the reason why the "international odds" changed this much "overnight", but going by the international markets^^^ (Pinnacle and Betfair) it looks like -4 @ -110 and -155 Money Line is good value for the Rams.
^^^: Going by those two markets I get about -188 / +188 as the estimated fair odds for Rams / Bengals.
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Below are the links to the relevant Vegas Insider pages.
Vegas_Spread_1 , Vegas_Spread_2 , Vegas_Money_Line_1 and Vegas_Money_Line_2
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Betting Strategy / Recommendations:
This is what I would do if I lived in Vegas (based on the above links and info):
. If I liked the Rams, I would take the -155*** Money Line with T I and / or the -4 available with nearly every book.
. If I liked the Bengals### and didn't have my bets on already, I would wait for them to go to at least +4.5.
***: See the link "Vegas_Money_Line_2" above (it is may be wrong though, I don't know why they would be -155, when the next best is -180).
###: I still personally like the Bengals, but I haven't worked out why they jumped from +169 to +186 with Pinnacle in the last 10 hours.
Note: I don't live in Vegas (or Nevada) so I can't confirm if the odds shown by Vegas Insider are correct for a lot of these Sports Books.
Also Note: According to the above "Vegas..." links, the info that I posted is correct as at, "Sat, Feb 12 03:22 PM EDT"
^^^: Going by those two markets I get about -188 / +188 as the estimated fair odds for Rams / Bengals.
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Below are the links to the relevant Vegas Insider pages.
Vegas_Spread_1 , Vegas_Spread_2 , Vegas_Money_Line_1 and Vegas_Money_Line_2
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Betting Strategy / Recommendations:
This is what I would do if I lived in Vegas (based on the above links and info):
. If I liked the Rams, I would take the -155*** Money Line with T I and / or the -4 available with nearly every book.
. If I liked the Bengals### and didn't have my bets on already, I would wait for them to go to at least +4.5.
***: See the link "Vegas_Money_Line_2" above (it is may be wrong though, I don't know why they would be -155, when the next best is -180).
###: I still personally like the Bengals, but I haven't worked out why they jumped from +169 to +186 with Pinnacle in the last 10 hours.
Note: I don't live in Vegas (or Nevada) so I can't confirm if the odds shown by Vegas Insider are correct for a lot of these Sports Books.
Also Note: According to the above "Vegas..." links, the info that I posted is correct as at, "Sat, Feb 12 03:22 PM EDT"
February 12th, 2022 at 2:57:23 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Below are the links to the relevant Vegas Insider pages.
Vegas_Spread_1 , Vegas_Spread_2 , Vegas_Money_Line_1 and Vegas_Money_Line_2
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Betting Strategy / Recommendations:
This is what I would do if I lived in Vegas (based on the above links and info):
. If I liked the Rams, I would take the -155*** Money Line with T I and / or the -4 available with nearly every book.
. If I liked the Bengals### and didn't have my bets on already, I would wait for them to go to at least +4.5.
***: See the link "Vegas_Money_Line_2" above (it is may be wrong though, I don't know why they would be -155, when the next best is -180).
(snip)
link to original post
For the Rams the -155 is no longer available and -180 is now the best Vegas Money Line for them, according to Vegas Insider
February 13th, 2022 at 2:09:53 AM
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It's not looking good for my bet on Bengals when even a Tiger Picks the Rams (hopefully it was just hungry when it went for them).
https://www.espn.com.au/video/clip/_/id/33273112
https://www.espn.com.au/video/clip/_/id/33273112
February 13th, 2022 at 4:49:32 PM
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Too bad for obj, he was having a great playoff run. Hope he recovers and can play effectively next year
February 13th, 2022 at 7:41:47 PM
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Great result.
Partially Hedged my bengals bet by backing the rams @ +150, and the winning margin was by 3 (so I think*** I won over $20k)
*** a bit tipsy, so not 100% sure the exact amount
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Spelling not checked, as sent from phone
Partially Hedged my bengals bet by backing the rams @ +150, and the winning margin was by 3 (so I think*** I won over $20k)
*** a bit tipsy, so not 100% sure the exact amount
—
Spelling not checked, as sent from phone
February 13th, 2022 at 7:46:50 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjGreat result.
Partially Hedged my bengals bet by backing the rams @ +150, and the winning margin was by 3 (so I think*** I won over $20k)
*** a bit tipsy, so not 100% sure the exact amount
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Spelling not checked, as sent from phone
link to original post
Congrats. You put the work in. You deserve the fruits of your labor! By the way, no more lottery ‘no’ action?
February 13th, 2022 at 7:55:01 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjGreat result.
Partially Hedged my bengals bet by backing the rams @ +150, and the winning margin was by 3 (so I think*** I won over $20k)
*** a bit tipsy, so not 100% sure the exact amount
—
Spelling not checked, as sent from phone
link to original post
Congrats. You put the work in. You deserve the fruits of your labor! By the way, no more lottery ‘no’ action?
link to original post
Thanks , it was even better because I am a Rams supporter.
Yeah, I can’t get any lottery action easily because they finally enforced the “not accepting players from Australia “ rule now (they were “letting that rule slide” for a while, at least with me).
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Sent from phone
