Super Bowl LVI - Estimated Odds...

Quote: ksdjdj

Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:

Eagles: ~$3.45 (+245)
Buccaneers: ~$1.41 (-245)

1: $2000 to win $6000 on the Eagles, money line.
2: $2475 to win $2250 on the Eagles @ +8.0 .
3: $825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0, earlier in the week.
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Come on, I just need lots of Bucs "3 and outs" and 3 more touchdowns (or 2 and a field goal) , can't be that hard*** ? : (

***: Maybe if Brady was playing for the Eagles down by 24 in the 4th, I could "keep my hopes alive" ?

Quote: ksdjdj

Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:
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Steelers: ~$5.40 (+440)
Chiefs: ~$1.23 (-440)

1: $500 to win $2650 on the Steelers, money line
2: $1000 to win $3000 on the Steelers @ +3.5
3: $2000 to win $2300 on the Steelers @ +10.5
4: $1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0, earlier in the week.

Note: My odds estimate was +488 / -488 Chiefs, earlier in the week.

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Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:

Steelers: ~$5.10 (+410)
Chiefs: ~$1.24 (-410)

5: Another $1400 to win $1610 on the Steelers @ +10.5

Quote: ksdjdj

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Early Game Odds Estimates - "Wild Card Week":
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Cardinals: ~$2.82 (+182)
Rams: ~$1.55 (-182)

Note: Rams between 58% and 71% estimated chance of winning

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Early Game Bets :
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$825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5
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Update (Game odds estimate and other info):

If all the questionable players for both teams are well enough to start, then I have the Cardinals +159 for this game (about +3.25*** against the spread)

***: Currently the public lines available to me are about right, and the best one that I can get is Cards +100 @ +3.25 / Rams +100 @ -3.25 ( which is in a "$200 max bet, promotional market").

Another update:

With J.J. Watt likely well enough to start, and "If all the questionable players for both teams are well enough to start" (see previous post) I now have the Cardinals at about +119 / Rams -119

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Bet Updates:

1: $5000 to win 7800 on the Cardinals, Money Line
2: $825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5, earlier in the week

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Update:

After watching the first quarter of the game, I cashed out $3790 (so lost $2035)

Team To Win Super Bowl	Estimated Odds
Packers	$4.62
Chiefs	$4.82
Bills	$7.3
Titans	$10.2
Buccaneers	$7.43
Rams	$10.8
Bengals	$21.9
49ers	$16.0

Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.

Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"

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Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Divisional Round":

Bengals: ~$2.53 (+153)
Titans: ~$1.65 (-153)

1: 4500 to win 7650 on the Bengals, Money Line

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49ers: ~$2.90 (+190)
Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)

1: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line

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Rams: ~$3.00 (+200)
Bucs: ~$1.50 (-200)

1: 8100 to win 5400 on the Bucs, Money Line

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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102)
Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)

1: 5900 to win 7080 on the Bills, Money Line
2: 750 to win 18750 on the Bills to win by 7
3: 750 to win 13500 on the Chiefs to win by 7

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Quote: ksdjdj

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Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Divisional Round":

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Cancelled / Amended Bets:

49ers: ~$2.90 (+190)
Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)

Was: 1: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Now: Cancelled
Reason: I think the odds will move against me, so I cancelled it in the hope of getting better odds later.

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Rams: ~$3.00 (+200)
Bucs: ~$1.50 (-200)

Was: 8100 to win 5400 on the Bucs, Money Line
Now: 8120 to win 5800 on the Bucs, Money Line
Reason: The odds I changed to are obviously better, but I lose the "... If the team you back is 17 (or more) points ahead any time during the game then paid as a winner..." Promo (since I bet with a different sports book to the one that offers that promo).
Note: With the book that I had the bet with now, I have lost the ability to cancel my bet "for free".

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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102)
Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)

Was: 1: 5900 to win 7080 on the Bills, Money Line
Now: 12000 to win 10000 on the Chiefs, Money Line
Reason: I think the Chiefs could get to -2.5 or even -3, but I plan to dump most / all of this bet on the Chiefs, and if the line moves enough I will make a small profit "on the dumping".
Note : I still plan to bet on the Bills, at this time.
Note 2: If you like the Chiefs in this game, you should take the -1.5, as it is still available*** with a few books (as at Wed, Jan 19 04:42 PM EDT)

***: According to the link here >>> https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

Quote: ksdjdj

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link to original post

Cancelled / Amended Bets:
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49ers: ~$2.90 (+190) / Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: Cancelled
Now: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Reason: I thought the odds would move against me, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon

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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102) / Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: See > link to original post
Now: Back to just 5900 to win 7980 on the Bills, Money Line
Reason: I thought the Chiefs would get to -2,5 / -3, now I don't think it will get to that, at this time.

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Other New Bet(s):

Bills / Chiefs Total Under 54.5: 1100 to win 1000 (I normally don't bet on totals, but I had the bet just because I saw a slow/stale total that was still 54.5).
700 to win 12600 on the Bills to win by 3

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

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link to original post

Cancelled / Amended Bets:
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49ers: ~$2.90 (+190) / Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: Cancelled
Now: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Reason: I thought the odds would move against me, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon

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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102) / Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: See > link to original post
Now: Back to just 5900 to win 7980 on the Bills, Money Line
Reason: I thought the Chiefs would get to -2,5 / -3, now I don't think it will get to that, at this time.

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Other New Bet(s):

Bills / Chiefs Total Under 54.5: 1100 to win 1000 (I normally don't bet on totals, but I had the bet just because I saw a slow/stale total that was still 54.5).
700 to win 12600 on the Bills to win by 3
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Ksddjd,

Where are you making these bets that they are allowing you to cancel them?

I apologize if this has been posted already, but here are the probabilities of winning each conference and the Super Bowl, according to Pinnacle futures.

AFC

Team	Probability
Chiefs	30.63%
Bills	26.87%
Titans	20.60%
Bengals	13.01%

NFC

Team	Probability
Packers	33.99%
Bucs	25.57%
Rams	20.01%
49ers	12.98%

Super Bowl

Team	Probability
Packers	16.47%
Chiefs	15.22%
Bills	13.87%
Bucs	12.16%
Rams	9.36%
Titans	7.68%
49ers	6.01%
Bengals	5.22%

Wait . . . . what?

Canceled bets? How? Where?