mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 3:59:11 PM permalink
I got in on the under early based on weather forecast at o/u 42 pts.

FanDuel has since dropped it to 37.5 as of this post.

The wind is expected to maintain 25-30 mph during the game, with gust up to 60mph at times. Twitter is already filled with pics and videos from pre-game.

I look for this one to be waaaaaaaaay under.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1497
  • Posts: 26679
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
December 6th, 2021 at 4:07:23 PM permalink
In sports betting, I like to be a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 6, 2021
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 4:15:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In sports betting, I like to a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
link to original post



I typically agree, however, before the weather became so public (thanks to social media) and the line was still at 42, the majority of the tickets were on the over while the majority of the money was on the under. That is what made me take the under so early. Now that I have a 4.5 point cushion, I like my chances.
mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 4:17:55 PM permalink
As of this post, even at 37.5, tickets are split pretty much 50/50, but still 70% of money on under.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4661
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
December 6th, 2021 at 4:24:43 PM permalink
At 37.5 Iíd take my chances on the over. Most books are at 40.

Both teams have strong run games and can sink and dunk. And donít discount the loss of White to the Bills Run D.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 6th, 2021 at 4:27:24 PM permalink
Put $2k on the Pats +3 and took the over for $2k as well at 39.5.

Weíll see.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4661
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
December 6th, 2021 at 4:33:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In sports betting, I like to a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
link to original post



Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

Iíve always heard that if the move isnít injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1497
  • Posts: 26679
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
December 6th, 2021 at 4:42:25 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

Iíve always heard that if the move isnít injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
link to original post



I've looked at data that shows the difference between the final score and the line is smaller using closing lines than opening. However, that data does not address the reason for the line movement.

My opinion, and I have nothing to prove it, is the masses overreact to everything. For example, a star player getting benched for deflating the football or beating his wife. As to weather, I think the public also overreacts to games in extreme weather. Wind is the most important factor, when it comes to weather, affecting outdoors sports, so they are right to factor that in, but the masses over-factor it. Cold weather, rain, and snow, I think do not affect football much.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 4:48:40 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: unJon

Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

Iíve always heard that if the move isnít injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
link to original post



I've looked at data that shows the difference between the final score and the line is smaller using closing lines than opening. However, that data does not address the reason for the line movement.

My opinion, and I have nothing to prove it, is the masses overreact to everything. For example, a star player getting benched for deflating the football or beating his wife. As to weather, I think the public also overreacts to games in extreme weather. Wind is the most important factor, when it comes to weather, affecting outdoors sports, so they are right to factor that in, but the masses over-factor it. Cold weather, rain, and snow, I think do not affect football much.
link to original post



I'd consider myself an above average sports bettor. Not an average joe, but not a sharp either. I see a lot fo value in fading the public and following the money, not the tickets. I love games where 20-25% of the tickets but close to 50% of the money is on a side. That tells me I am on the side of the sharps AND the sports books.

That was my reason for taking under at 42. I agree with the Wiz, the public couldve completely overreacted to this weather when it become public and thus the line moved almost 5 points. I'm just glad to be in at 42.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4661
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
December 6th, 2021 at 5:01:22 PM permalink
I hear you and you got CLV so thatís great. But the line opened at 46 so you missed 4 points. Hopefully you got in before the overreaction! Anyway, good luck. I just saw a stat that Allenís QB rating is higher when the wind speed at kickoff is 20+mph than when itís below that.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 5:08:53 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I hear you and you got CLV so thatís great. But the line opened at 46 so you missed 4 points. Hopefully you got in before the overreaction! Anyway, good luck. I just saw a stat that Allenís QB rating is higher when the wind speed at kickoff is 20+mph than when itís below that.
link to original post



The flaw of following the sharps is you also lose a point or 2. You cant react before they do and once they do, youve likely lost points!
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 6th, 2021 at 5:16:07 PM permalink
Both teams are from the exact same weather they are playing in. Itís not like the Dolphins or say the Cowboys playing at the Bills or The Patriots stadium.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 5:27:26 PM permalink
Quote: Marcusclark66

Both teams are from the exact same weather they are playing in. Itís not like the Dolphins or say the Cowboys playing at the Bills or The Patriots stadium.
link to original post[/ql

I dont care if you live in Antarica, throwing or kicking a football in 20-60 mph winds isnt easy!

mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 5:33:03 PM permalink
Sorry I have that quote all screwed up. 3 beers in at bar and fat fingering on my phone.
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 6th, 2021 at 5:37:17 PM permalink
I got a side bet at $500 saying that the patriots score 1st.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 6th, 2021 at 5:40:39 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: Marcusclark66

Both teams are from the exact same weather they are playing in. Itís not like the Dolphins or say the Cowboys playing at the Bills or The Patriots stadium.
link to original post



I dont care if you live in Antarica, throwing or kicking a football in 20-60 mph winds isnt easy!
link to original post



Not worried, the Pats will show the Bills how itís done.

Glad I have about 250 TVs at work.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Dec 6, 2021
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
December 6th, 2021 at 8:05:09 PM permalink
Under cashed easily!
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 6th, 2021 at 8:13:08 PM permalink
Done.

Won the Pats.

Lost the Over.

Won my side bet Pats score first.

+ $500.00 jingle jingle.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4661
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
December 6th, 2021 at 8:39:18 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Under cashed easily!
link to original post



Great cash.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Marcusclark66
December 6th, 2021 at 9:09:57 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9


I love games where 20-25% of the tickets but close to 50% of the money is on a side. That tells me I am on the side of the sharps AND the sports books.

Question: Where are you getting these numbers from?

There was a discussion regarding this (amount of money on each side, handle, etc. for each NFL game) in another handicapping forum. The consensus of the forum was, wherever you are getting these numbers from, the data is not reliable... and in fact is most likely "made up."

Mathew Holt, the ex sportbook manager at the Westgate, said that no sportsbook ever will give out their transaction log to any 3rd party ever. Ditto the current sportsbook manager over at Boyd Gaming, Bob Scucci. Anyone who thinks they are getting real sportsbook figures (handle and ticket counts) is delirious.

There is no gaming entity in Vegas, the Caribbean or Europe that just opens their ledger to the general public. Think about it. These are publicly traded companies. Their daily transactional ledger is not public information and never will be.

IF a major sportsbook wanted to publish this data, they'd publish it on their own website, and not let a 3rd party do it.

The fact of the matter is all of the handle and ticket counts and percentages are nothing more than "gimmicks." They are published for the sole reason of enticing you to place a bet on either side. No sports book is just handing out their data. Nor are they charging for it. They wouldn't do it even if they were allowed.
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 6th, 2021 at 9:19:09 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Quote: mwalz9


I love games where 20-25% of the tickets but close to 50% of the money is on a side. That tells me I am on the side of the sharps AND the sports books.

Question: Where are you getting these numbers from?

There was a discussion regarding this (amount of money on each side, handle, etc. for each NFL game) in another handicapping forum. The consensus of the forum was, wherever you are getting these numbers from, the data is not reliable... and in fact is most likely "made up."

Mathew Holt, the ex sportbook manager at the Westgate, said that no sportsbook ever will give out their transaction log to any 3rd party ever. Ditto the current sportsbook manager over at Boyd Gaming, Bob Scucci. Anyone who thinks they are getting real sportsbook figures (handle and ticket counts) is delirious.

There is no gaming entity in Vegas, the Caribbean or Europe that just opens their ledger to the general public. Think about it. These are publicly traded companies. Their daily transactional ledger is not public information and never will be.

IF a major sportsbook wanted to publish this data, they'd publish it on their own website, and not let a 3rd party do it.

The fact of the matter is all of the handle and ticket counts and percentages are nothing more than "gimmicks." They are published for the sole reason of enticing you to place a bet on either side. No sports book is just handing out their data. Nor are they charging for it. They wouldn't do it even if they were allowed.
link to original post




Pure spoken truth. Nice.

Please donít explain why the casinos were thrilled to purchase, install and maintain all the score boards at tables games.

Let the majority believe what they so aggressively do about getting the Ďinsightí because of the board.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2428
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
December 7th, 2021 at 5:27:32 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

I got in on the under early based on weather forecast at o/u 42 pts.

FanDuel has since dropped it to 37.5 as of this post.

The wind is expected to maintain 25-30 mph during the game, with gust up to 60mph at times. Twitter is already filled with pics and videos from pre-game.

I look for this one to be waaaaaaaaay under.



I am fairly confident FD was on 39.5 almost all afternoon. Obviously they had alternate lines on almost any number. 43.5 and 44.5 on parlay cards, so there is still something of value to be found on those things even if it is such a small fraction of what it was 10 years ago. Best quote I saw about this game was that there are some things the in play algorithms cannot account for.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2428
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
December 7th, 2021 at 5:34:46 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

There was a discussion regarding this (amount of money on each side, handle, etc. for each NFL game) in another handicapping forum. The consensus of the forum was, wherever you are getting these numbers from, the data is not reliable... and in fact is most likely "made up."

Mathew Holt, the ex sportbook manager at the Westgate, said that no sportsbook ever will give out their transaction log to any 3rd party ever. Ditto the current sportsbook manager over at Boyd Gaming, Bob Scucci. Anyone who thinks they are getting real sportsbook figures (handle and ticket counts) is delirious.

There is no gaming entity in Vegas, the Caribbean or Europe that just opens their ledger to the general public. Think about it. These are publicly traded companies. Their daily transactional ledger is not public information and never will be.

IF a major sportsbook wanted to publish this data, they'd publish it on their own website, and not let a 3rd party do it.

The fact of the matter is all of the handle and ticket counts and percentages are nothing more than "gimmicks." They are published for the sole reason of enticing you to place a bet on either side. No sports book is just handing out their data. Nor are they charging for it. They wouldn't do it even if they were allowed.



Plenty of individual sportsbooks do not mind giving out this information to certain reporters as it will get them some media coverage. An ESPN reported putting an @CaesarsSports in a tweet is worth it to them. It doesn't mean letting them look at the books, it is just telling them something. They could lie about it, but I wouldn't think so. Definitely does not come close to representing the entire market.
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 7th, 2021 at 5:55:50 AM permalink
Advertising, social media any other forms of marketing for a business are always truthful, always spot on and always verifiable, yeah sure.

Itís like a $50,000 jackpot giveaway, be one of 12 winners but they donít tell you that thereís 45,000 people that lose when they come through the door and lose their bank roll waiting for the drawing to see if they won part of a $50,000 giveaway. Maybe thatís a bad example but I have to agree with you advertising, social media and marketing will always be truthful. LMAO

Same thing, our machines paid out more money than any other casino in the state. But they donít tell you that our machines have also taken more money from players trying to win, than any other casino in the state. LMAO.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2428
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
December 7th, 2021 at 6:07:29 AM permalink
Quote: Marcusclark66

Advertising, social media any other forms of marketing for a business are always truthful, always spot on and always verifiable, yeah sure.



If a sportsbook director goes on TV, the radio, or a podcast and says "our biggest liability this week is on the Chiefs", why would they lie? What is the downside for them? Does that change if they use actual numbers, (eg 80% of tickets)?
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 3667
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
December 7th, 2021 at 6:17:03 AM permalink
If itís not from a market making book, which never give out that data because itís data your draft kings/Bet MGMís will never get, even if those numbers are true theyíre of little to no value right? They arenít moving major market lines based on the handle and if they know the action is sharper their probably limited although no one should be on nfl sides or totals, theyíre just copying Pinnacle, Cris, or Circa anyways.
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 1140
Joined: Mar 26, 2020
December 7th, 2021 at 6:24:49 AM permalink
You know you speak to one casino executive and he says, our Baccarat tables lose more money than any other tables in our casino. You speak to another casino executive at the same casino and he says, you know our baccarat tables win us more money than any of the other tables.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2428
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
December 7th, 2021 at 6:44:19 AM permalink
Quote: Marcusclark66

You know you speak to one casino executive and he says, our Baccarat tables lose more money than any other tables in our casino. You speak to another casino executive at the same casino and he says, you know our baccarat tables win us more money than any of the other tables.



Are there examples of them saying this publicly in the media? Or is it only what they say to you in private and completely unrelated to reports of sports handle?
  • Jump to: