mwalz9
mwalz9
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December 6th, 2021 at 3:59:11 PM permalink
I got in on the under early based on weather forecast at o/u 42 pts.

FanDuel has since dropped it to 37.5 as of this post.

The wind is expected to maintain 25-30 mph during the game, with gust up to 60mph at times. Twitter is already filled with pics and videos from pre-game.

I look for this one to be waaaaaaaaay under.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:07:23 PM permalink
In sports betting, I like to be a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 6, 2021
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mwalz9
mwalz9
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:15:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In sports betting, I like to a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
link to original post



I typically agree, however, before the weather became so public (thanks to social media) and the line was still at 42, the majority of the tickets were on the over while the majority of the money was on the under. That is what made me take the under so early. Now that I have a 4.5 point cushion, I like my chances.
mwalz9
mwalz9
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:17:55 PM permalink
As of this post, even at 37.5, tickets are split pretty much 50/50, but still 70% of money on under.
unJon
unJon
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:24:43 PM permalink
At 37.5 Iíd take my chances on the over. Most books are at 40.

Both teams have strong run games and can sink and dunk. And donít discount the loss of White to the Bills Run D.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Marcusclark66
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:27:24 PM permalink
Put $2k on the Pats +3 and took the over for $2k as well at 39.5.

Weíll see.
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unJon
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:33:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In sports betting, I like to a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
link to original post



Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

Iíve always heard that if the move isnít injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:42:25 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

Iíve always heard that if the move isnít injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
link to original post



I've looked at data that shows the difference between the final score and the line is smaller using closing lines than opening. However, that data does not address the reason for the line movement.

My opinion, and I have nothing to prove it, is the masses overreact to everything. For example, a star player getting benched for deflating the football or beating his wife. As to weather, I think the public also overreacts to games in extreme weather. Wind is the most important factor, when it comes to weather, affecting outdoors sports, so they are right to factor that in, but the masses over-factor it. Cold weather, rain, and snow, I think do not affect football much.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mwalz9
mwalz9
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December 6th, 2021 at 4:48:40 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: unJon

Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

Iíve always heard that if the move isnít injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
link to original post



I've looked at data that shows the difference between the final score and the line is smaller using closing lines than opening. However, that data does not address the reason for the line movement.

My opinion, and I have nothing to prove it, is the masses overreact to everything. For example, a star player getting benched for deflating the football or beating his wife. As to weather, I think the public also overreacts to games in extreme weather. Wind is the most important factor, when it comes to weather, affecting outdoors sports, so they are right to factor that in, but the masses over-factor it. Cold weather, rain, and snow, I think do not affect football much.
link to original post



I'd consider myself an above average sports bettor. Not an average joe, but not a sharp either. I see a lot fo value in fading the public and following the money, not the tickets. I love games where 20-25% of the tickets but close to 50% of the money is on a side. That tells me I am on the side of the sharps AND the sports books.

That was my reason for taking under at 42. I agree with the Wiz, the public couldve completely overreacted to this weather when it become public and thus the line moved almost 5 points. I'm just glad to be in at 42.
unJon
unJon
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December 6th, 2021 at 5:01:22 PM permalink
I hear you and you got CLV so thatís great. But the line opened at 46 so you missed 4 points. Hopefully you got in before the overreaction! Anyway, good luck. I just saw a stat that Allenís QB rating is higher when the wind speed at kickoff is 20+mph than when itís below that.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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