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TomG
TomG
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
April 14th, 2021 at 11:12:29 AM permalink
This is something I do very rarely for a few reasons:
-only have access to Nevada market numbers makes them hard to find
-when I do find them it usually means one side is -EV
-and usually only props with low limits, so best to just take a position and either win or lose

But this weekend found a mispriced number on Saturday night baseball and was able to get three max bets (at decent limits) in before it moved to market price. That was way over what I would normally want to risk, so spend the day looking to find the best bets on the other side. By time the game started I would be able to win low three figures if the Dodgers cover, low four figures if the Nationals cover, and high four figures if Dodgers win by exactly two. Unfortunately, even after getting a lot of action on some of the best numbers I'll see all year, only won $160.

Then Monday found another great number on an alternate line on the Nets. Max bet (at low limit). They move the line. Max bet again. Off the board. I was certainly willing to just let it play out, but I was looking around at numbers other places had up and saw something I thought might be +EV, so I bet on the other side. Overall position was risking $500 to win $400 on something that was better than 75%. I guess that means a little over $200 in value; though my mind was thinking $500. Not great, but a lot better than most days. Then the game was cancelled.

Overall, find one of the best numbers I'll ever see in terms of odds and volume; then follow that up with something almost as good. And both times I take both sides so in total on both games there is a very small chance of losing something small. And after it all plays out, I barely win anything and still spend the following day driving through the horrible I-15 traffic to reload on the one account that lost.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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April 14th, 2021 at 10:32:25 PM permalink
Much easier to do online, but very time consuming if you want to do it regularly. Something I've done in the past and might get back into during retirement.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 14th, 2021 at 10:59:10 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Much easier to do online, but very time consuming if you want to do it regularly. Something I've done in the past and might get back into during retirement.


ZCore13

Good thread Tom.
--------------------------------------------------
ZC Are we talking about true arb's or line infancies?

How many different online books were you using? Some of those places may no longer be available to US customers.


Whatever the case, it's just easier to always win at Baccarat and Roulette.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Zcore13
Zcore13
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April 15th, 2021 at 12:00:47 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Good thread Tom.
--------------------------------------------------
ZC Are we talking about true arb's or line infancies?

How many different online books were you using? Some of those places may no longer be available to US customers.


Whatever the case, it's just easier to always win at Baccarat and Roulette.



True Arbitrage. I had about 10 online accounts. Many are not available any more.. A few that I remember were Sportsbook, Intertops and BetOnline.

At first I scoured the lines for two plus lines. Later I found a website that was automated and found them for me.. Most of the time a +104 -+108 on each side, but once in a while up to a +125. I just did it for fun since I owned my own business and had time. I also only did $100 wagers. You have to be right on it and act fast or you can get caught and miss it, but already have half the bet in. Especially when websites started finding them and notifying their users.

Luckily for me, Sports betting will be legal iand live n Az by August or September. Ill get to have even more fun.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 15th, 2021 at 1:50:22 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

True Arbitrage. I had about 10 online accounts. Many are not available any more.. A few that I remember were Sportsbook, Intertops and BetOnline.

At first I scoured the lines for two plus lines. Later I found a website that was automated and found them for me.. Most of the time a +104 -+108 on each side, but once in a while up to a +125. I just did it for fun since I owned my own business and had time. I also only did $100 wagers. You have to be right on it and act fast or you can get caught and miss it, but already have half the bet in. Especially when websites started finding them and notifying their users.

Luckily for me, Sports betting will be legal iand live n Az by August or September. Ill get to have even more fun.


ZCore13

Good stuff.

"Later I found a website that was automated and found them for me"

That's the next thing I was going to mention but then I thought better of it since this is certainly something where others doing the same thing will cut down on your profitability.

I'm wondering if there will be as many opportunities in the legally regulated books once they are running smoothly? Of course, there may be some good bonuses to take advantage of as well. Perhaps, if you can add in a few offshore places like Bovada and make up for that.

Speaking of bonuses... if you add that into the Arbs, now you are really talking about a nice situation percentage-wise.

For me, whenever you can make "free" money doing AP stuff from home, and you enjoy it, it just seems like that old saying rings true "money won is sweeter than money earned" type of thing.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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April 15th, 2021 at 4:24:46 AM permalink
...........................

my admittedly unscientific observation is re strong faves in the NFL - when the lines open on Tuesday or Monday night you will get a better line fairly often then the line you would get close to game time after the plungers have bet the faves so much that they have to give up more points

so you can fairly often get a decent middle out of it

of course, if this doesn't happen you're stuck with the bet and will probably end up losing the vig in the long run

so, the way to go is to combine this with capping and only bet the strong faves that you think would be good bets even if the line doesn't get crushed




*
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 15th, 2021 at 4:57:41 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

...........................

my admittedly unscientific observation is re strong faves in the NFL - when the lines open on Tuesday or Monday night you will get a better line fairly often then the line you would get close to game time after the plungers have bet the faves so much that they have to give up more points

so you can fairly often get a decent middle out of it

of course, if this doesn't happen you're stuck with the bet and will probably end up losing the vig in the long run

so, the way to go is to combine this with capping and only bet the strong faves that you think would be good bets even if the line doesn't get crushed




*

What type of advantage(%) do you think you have doing this? Personally, I like a little extra zing to whatever I'm doing AP-related.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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April 15th, 2021 at 5:16:19 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What type of advantage(%) do you think you have doing this? Personally, I like a little extra zing to whatever I'm doing AP-related.




I really don't think it's something that can easily be calculated
I've never heard a quote on the edge a middle can provide
and also, of course, it depends on how good a capper you are when picking the fave in case the fave doesn't get crushed by the plungers


Tom is doing great stuff with his thing - and of course living in LV makes it that much easier


*
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
Sandybestdog
Sandybestdog
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April 15th, 2021 at 8:03:50 AM permalink
You get all excited when you see a line that you can bet both sides on but then reality hits you. You want to bet everything on it but actually getting the money down is difficult. You have to bet one side first while not knowing once that bet is placed if the other place will take the same amount on the other side. So sometimes you are left with not being able to fully hedge it and have to either hold risk you werenít prepared for or hedge at a worse line.

Also since you are usually placing large bets I think the books take notice. A few $1000 wins on BetMGM or Caesars and you get limited to $50 real quick. They think you crushed them but they donít know you lost on the other side and really only made $50. Not worth ruining your account over it. Actually Iíve been limited at places Iím a lifetime loser at. They just donít like any action.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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odiousgambit
April 15th, 2021 at 8:48:09 AM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

A few $1000 wins on BetMGM or Caesars and you get limited to $50 real quick.



I have no experience, but this seems ridiculous!? You are saying if I sign up, start betting $1k on NBA action, win my first 4 bets someone actually even notices and now limits me to $50 bets?

Am I understanding your point correctly?

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