Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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February 6th, 2021 at 6:18:40 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Oh never mind. It looks like you are using the historical data to generate this.



Yes, I am. Every NFL game from 1994 to 2018.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 6th, 2021 at 6:56:37 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think I didn't correctly account for the fact that a non-tied score can happen two ways. For example, there has never been a score of 5 to 6 in an NFL game. However, that could happen two ways in the Super Bowl:

TB 5 -- KC 6
TB 6 -- KC 5

Looking at games from 1994 (when the two-point conversion rule began) to 2018, the probability of a given side having a total of five points is 0.000396762. The probability of a given side having a total of six points is 0.021187113.

Since there are two combinations for a 5-6 score, I contend a decent estimate of the probability is 2*0.000396762*0.021187113 = 0.00001681.

Doing this for every set of scores that hasn't happened yet, I get a probability of 0.017925, or 1 in 55.

Any comments?



You keep ignoring the fact that scoring is way up due to recent rules changes and rule interpretations as well. And missing an XP or making a 2 point conversion is how most new 'scorigamis' will be made.

It would be if you did stock analysis taking the last 50 years about what happens when a stock is heavily shorted (USED to tend to go down) and try that next week! Things are DIFFERENT now! Just like in the NFL.
unJon
unJon
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February 6th, 2021 at 7:21:19 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You keep ignoring the fact that scoring is way up due to recent rules changes and rule interpretations as well. And missing an XP or making a 2 point conversion is how most new 'scorigamis' will be made.

It would be if you did stock analysis taking the last 50 years about what happens when a stock is heavily shorted (USED to tend to go down) and try that next week! Things are DIFFERENT now! Just like in the NFL.



Mike ran it on data through 2018. It would be a good test to see if 2019 and 2020 had a statistically significant number of scoragomis.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
billryan
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February 6th, 2021 at 9:10:59 AM permalink
In the unlikely event of a one-point safety, do you think the books would pay off on a safety bet or would this be a different bet?
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
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February 6th, 2021 at 9:30:14 AM permalink
Would they call it a safetygami?
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 6th, 2021 at 9:51:17 AM permalink
Prop bet articles from William Hill:
https://www.williamhill.us/pro-football-championship-55-notable-general-prop-bets/
This was a novel prop bet mentioned in this article:
The prop of “will a missed field goal hit the upright” is currently listed at YES +370 and NO -450.
-So it has to be a field goal attempt, has to hit the upright, and miss for yes to win.

https://www.williamhill.us/pro-football-championship-55-most-popular-prop-bet-sides/
-Tom Brady no rushing TD prop is the most popular (by dollars):
After opening at -250, ‘NO’ on Brady’s rushing touchdown prop has soared to -440 with ‘YES’ at +360. In fact, ‘NO’ Brady rushing touchdown is the most popular prop bet side as of now at William Hill in terms of total dollars wagered.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 6th, 2021 at 10:24:11 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In the unlikely event of a one-point safety, do you think the books would pay off on a safety bet or would this be a different bet?


I was going to say, "A safety is a safety," but that would be like saying that a kicked extra point is a "1-point field goal." In fact, the rules for a try after a touchdown say, "If a kick results in a field goal by the offense, one point is awarded."

I wonder if anyone has ever tried to claim something like this:
"I bet on 'last score of the game is a field goal/safety,' and the last score of a game was an extra point, which the rulebook says is a "field goal."
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 6th, 2021 at 10:38:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You keep ignoring the fact that scoring is way up due to recent rules changes and rule interpretations as well. And missing an XP or making a 2 point conversion is how most new 'scorigamis' will be made.



My analysis is based on games since 1994, when the two-point conversion rule came along.

The argument that this should be a high scoring game and more likely to be a Scorigan is a decent one, but there is no easy and agreeable way to adjust for that. I think my estimate is a very good starting point. If I had to actually bet, I'd put the probability at about 2%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 6th, 2021 at 10:40:44 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I wonder if anyone has ever tried to claim something like this:
"I bet on 'last score of the game is a field goal/safety,' and the last score of a game was an extra point, which the rulebook says is a "field goal."



Along those lines, an argument could be made for winning a bet on "even" in roulette if the ball lands in zero. Zero is an even number.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TinMan
TinMan
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February 6th, 2021 at 11:08:53 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In the unlikely event of a one-point safety, do you think the books would pay off on a safety bet or would this be a different bet?



This is highly unlikely but the general idea can come up. Maybe 5-8 years ago there was a SuperBowl with a prop bet on the number of kickoffs. Let’s say the line was 9.5. There were 9 traditional kickoffs plus a free kick after a safety. I forget how that was graded but it was at least arguable both ways.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.

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