Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 177
  • Posts: 10080
February 5th, 2021 at 12:31:31 PM permalink
The only thing Tom Brady has not accomplished in his storied career is a drop kick.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2178
February 5th, 2021 at 12:37:24 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The only thing Tom Brady has not accomplished in his storied career is a drop kick.

I guess Flutie will always have that on him for Patriots QB comparisons.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 162
  • Posts: 3273
February 5th, 2021 at 3:03:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Smash, I did. Fair odds on the yes are 92 to 1.




I'm going to put this out there - if I'm mistaken in any way I apologize - but I don't think I'm mistaken

if the fair odds are 92/1 and the book offers -1400

and a player wins 92 times betting $1,400 he will win $9,200 - and if he loses one time he will lose $1,400 - his net profit is $7,800

his total action (93 * $1,400) is $130,200

his edge is 5.99% ($7,800 divided by $130,200)

the edge is still not large

for comparison purposes - a winning player who can hit 57% on traditional against the spread bets in the NFL has an edge of 8.8%

on the scorigami bet:

if he bets $10,000 his dollar expectation is to average $599 profit on the bet in the long run
if he bets $1,400 his dollar expectation is to average $83.86 profit on the bet in the long run
if he bets $1,000 his dollar expectation is to average $59.90 profit on the bet in the long run


it's a lot of money to risk for a comparatively small edge and small profit
I still don't think it's a great bet - but that comes down to a matter of opinion - obviously others could have a different opinion



*
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 5, 2021
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 6996
February 5th, 2021 at 3:22:28 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The only thing Tom Brady has not accomplished in his storied career is a drop kick.



That is exactly why Doug Flutie is a better NFL player than Brady.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 162
  • Posts: 3273
February 5th, 2021 at 3:59:28 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'll take 75-1 for as much money as you will let me bet on the yes! It is not implausible for the loser to have the highest score ever by a losing team.... a scorigami!





the highest score ever by a losing team is 51 - not impossible but I would say very, very unlikely for the loser to score more than that

more important - as you can see from the image - the highest Super Bowl scores have been way, way less than the highest playoff and highest regular season scores, and that might be what Mr. Wizard is looking at

the obvious reason for this is the much larger sample size - but it also is likely to have to do with the increased pressure in the Super Bowl - which IMO is much more likely to affect the offense than the defense









https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-scoring_NFL_games#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Redskins%20and%20the,outscored%20the%20Giants%2072%E2%80%9341.
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22558
February 5th, 2021 at 9:08:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Smash, I did. I'm in a rush to get out the door, but I'll write up my method later today or tomorrow.

Bottom line is my probability of a scorigami is 0.010736. Fair odds on the yes are 92 to 1.



I think I didn't correctly account for the fact that a non-tied score can happen two ways. For example, there has never been a score of 5 to 6 in an NFL game. However, that could happen two ways in the Super Bowl:

TB 5 -- KC 6
TB 6 -- KC 5

Looking at games from 1994 (when the two-point conversion rule began) to 2018, the probability of a given side having a total of five points is 0.000396762. The probability of a given side having a total of six points is 0.021187113.

Since there are two combinations for a 5-6 score, I contend a decent estimate of the probability is 2*0.000396762*0.021187113 = 0.00001681.

Doing this for every set of scores that hasn't happened yet, I get a probability of 0.017925, or 1 in 55.

Any comments?
Last edited by: Wizard on Feb 6, 2021
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22558
February 6th, 2021 at 5:30:13 AM permalink
To expand, this table shows the count, from 1994 to 2018, of individual team scores and the probability.

Total Total Combined Probability
0 170 0.013490
1 0 0.000000
2 2 0.000159
3 303 0.024044
4 0 0.000000
5 5 0.000397
6 267 0.021187
7 420 0.033328
8 29 0.002301
9 188 0.014918
10 706 0.056023
11 32 0.002539
12 123 0.009760
13 646 0.051262
14 530 0.042057
15 128 0.010157
16 434 0.034439
17 892 0.070782
18 91 0.007221
19 282 0.022377
20 860 0.068243
21 511 0.040549
22 189 0.014998
23 548 0.043485
24 821 0.065148
25 118 0.009364
26 267 0.021187
27 673 0.053404
28 382 0.030313
29 131 0.010395
30 336 0.026662
31 578 0.045866
32 61 0.004841
33 146 0.011585
34 394 0.031265
35 200 0.015870
36 71 0.005634
37 163 0.012934
38 265 0.021028
39 30 0.002381
40 50 0.003968
41 146 0.011585
42 78 0.006189
43 25 0.001984
44 58 0.004602
45 85 0.006745
46 7 0.000555
47 16 0.001270
48 47 0.003730
49 35 0.002777
50 5 0.000397
51 15 0.001190
52 14 0.001111
53 1 0.000079
54 4 0.000317
55 6 0.000476
56 6 0.000476
57 2 0.000159
58 3 0.000238
59 5 0.000397
60 0 0.000000
61 0 0.000000
62 2 0.000159
Total 12602 1.000000


For any given score combination that has never happened, I take 2*probability(score 1)*probability(score 2). Sum that up for every unseen score and you get my answer in the previous post.

I'll save the forum some trouble and offer my own criticism:

1. This does not take into account the probability a team scores a total of one point. Yes, the NFL has such a thing as a one-point safety. Since no team has ever had a total of one at the end of the game, my method assigns a probability of zero to this. To end the game with one point, would take scoring ONLY a one-point safety in the entire game.

2. This assumes the two individual team scores are independent of each other. In reality, I think there is a negative correlation. If one team scores a LOT of points, like over 50, it is probably at the expense of the other team scoring very little.

My defense is factoring in these criticisms would have had a very marginal effect, but significantly increased the difficulty and complexity of the analysis.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2178
February 6th, 2021 at 5:32:59 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

To expand, this table shows the count, from 1994 to 2018, of individual team scores and the probability.

Total Total Combined Probability
0 170 0.013490
1 0 0.000000
2 2 0.000159
3 303 0.024044
4 0 0.000000
5 5 0.000397
6 267 0.021187
7 420 0.033328
8 29 0.002301
9 188 0.014918
10 706 0.056023
11 32 0.002539
12 123 0.009760
13 646 0.051262
14 530 0.042057
15 128 0.010157
16 434 0.034439
17 892 0.070782
18 91 0.007221
19 282 0.022377
20 860 0.068243
21 511 0.040549
22 189 0.014998
23 548 0.043485
24 821 0.065148
25 118 0.009364
26 267 0.021187
27 673 0.053404
28 382 0.030313
29 131 0.010395
30 336 0.026662
31 578 0.045866
32 61 0.004841
33 146 0.011585
34 394 0.031265
35 200 0.015870
36 71 0.005634
37 163 0.012934
38 265 0.021028
39 30 0.002381
40 50 0.003968
41 146 0.011585
42 78 0.006189
43 25 0.001984
44 58 0.004602
45 85 0.006745
46 7 0.000555
47 16 0.001270
48 47 0.003730
49 35 0.002777
50 5 0.000397
51 15 0.001190
52 14 0.001111
53 1 0.000079
54 4 0.000317
55 6 0.000476
56 6 0.000476
57 2 0.000159
58 3 0.000238
59 5 0.000397
60 0 0.000000
61 0 0.000000
62 2 0.000159
Total 12602 1.000000


For any given score combination that has never happened, I take 2*probability(score 1)*probability(score 2). Sum that up for every unseen score and you get my answer in the previous post.

I'll save the forum some trouble and offer my own criticism:

1. This does not take into account the probability a team scores a total of one point. Yes, the NFL has such a thing as a one-point safety. Since no team has ever had a total of one at the end of the game, my method assigns a probability of zero to this. To end the game with one point, would take scoring ONLY a one-point safety in the entire game.

2. This assumes the two individual team scores are independent of each other. In reality, I think there is a negative correlation. If one team scores a LOT of points, like over 50, it is probably at the expense of the other team scoring very little.

My defense is factoring in these criticisms would have had a very marginal effect, but significantly increased the difficulty and complexity of the analysis.



Have you thought about testing this distribution against the actual final scores over the same period to check the goodness of fit?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 891
February 6th, 2021 at 6:14:39 AM permalink
Cool chart...surprised 20 is that much more likely than 21
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2178
February 6th, 2021 at 6:17:13 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Wizard

To expand, this table shows the count, from 1994 to 2018, of individual team scores and the probability.

Total Total Combined Probability
0 170 0.013490
1 0 0.000000
2 2 0.000159
3 303 0.024044
4 0 0.000000
5 5 0.000397
6 267 0.021187
7 420 0.033328
8 29 0.002301
9 188 0.014918
10 706 0.056023
11 32 0.002539
12 123 0.009760
13 646 0.051262
14 530 0.042057
15 128 0.010157
16 434 0.034439
17 892 0.070782
18 91 0.007221
19 282 0.022377
20 860 0.068243
21 511 0.040549
22 189 0.014998
23 548 0.043485
24 821 0.065148
25 118 0.009364
26 267 0.021187
27 673 0.053404
28 382 0.030313
29 131 0.010395
30 336 0.026662
31 578 0.045866
32 61 0.004841
33 146 0.011585
34 394 0.031265
35 200 0.015870
36 71 0.005634
37 163 0.012934
38 265 0.021028
39 30 0.002381
40 50 0.003968
41 146 0.011585
42 78 0.006189
43 25 0.001984
44 58 0.004602
45 85 0.006745
46 7 0.000555
47 16 0.001270
48 47 0.003730
49 35 0.002777
50 5 0.000397
51 15 0.001190
52 14 0.001111
53 1 0.000079
54 4 0.000317
55 6 0.000476
56 6 0.000476
57 2 0.000159
58 3 0.000238
59 5 0.000397
60 0 0.000000
61 0 0.000000
62 2 0.000159
Total 12602 1.000000


For any given score combination that has never happened, I take 2*probability(score 1)*probability(score 2). Sum that up for every unseen score and you get my answer in the previous post.

I'll save the forum some trouble and offer my own criticism:

1. This does not take into account the probability a team scores a total of one point. Yes, the NFL has such a thing as a one-point safety. Since no team has ever had a total of one at the end of the game, my method assigns a probability of zero to this. To end the game with one point, would take scoring ONLY a one-point safety in the entire game.

2. This assumes the two individual team scores are independent of each other. In reality, I think there is a negative correlation. If one team scores a LOT of points, like over 50, it is probably at the expense of the other team scoring very little.

My defense is factoring in these criticisms would have had a very marginal effect, but significantly increased the difficulty and complexity of the analysis.



Have you thought about testing this distribution against the actual final scores over the same period to check the goodness of fit?



Oh never mind. It looks like you are using the historical data to generate this.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

  • Jump to: