Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
willbert
January 24th, 2021 at 8:09:18 PM permalink
I make a post like this every year handicapping the game. My method is quite simple. My estimate of the points scored by a give team is:

(average points scored per game + average points opponent allows)/2.

I do this for the entire season, including the post-season games.

For Kansas City's 19 games they scored 533 points and allowed 403.

For Tampa Bay's 20 games, they scored 584 and allowed 424.

Taking an average per game for KC:

Scored = 28.05
Allowed = 21.21

Taking an average per game for TB:

Scored = 29.20
Allowed = 21.20

Using my formula, I estimate:
KC to score (28.05 + 21.20)/2 = 24.63
TB to score (29.20 + 21.21) = 25.21

So, TB will score 0.58 more points.

The over/under I make 24.63 + 25.21 = 49.83.

The early lines are:
TB + 3.5
Ov/un 55.5

Thus, my crude handicapping recommend Tampa Bay and the Under. Not surprisingly, these are the underdog and the under, which are the sharp side of most games.

The question for the poll is what is your prediction?
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 30, 2023
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
coilman
coilman
  • Threads: 139
  • Posts: 1160
Joined: Jan 29, 2012
Thanked by
odiousgambit
January 24th, 2021 at 8:48:58 PM permalink
But will there be a Safety?
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 4768
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
January 24th, 2021 at 8:59:50 PM permalink
It opened at Chiefs -3 and 57.5 at my book. I took under 57.5. My number was 52. I thought -3 was the right number.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2459
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
January 24th, 2021 at 9:12:27 PM permalink
Just took Tampa +3.5 for first bet of Super Bowl season. Already had a little on the Chiefs +225 and NFC +4. Had Packers +6000 and Bucs over Bills at +1250, which are obviously dead, but would have been nice. I predict I will bet more heavily on the Bucs, than the Chiefs. Last year I was biggest on quarters, this year I predict it will be player props.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7068
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 25th, 2021 at 12:26:45 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

I predict I will bet more heavily on the Bucs, than the Chiefs. Last year I was biggest on quarters, this year I predict it will be player props.




I enjoyed your post quite a bit Tom, predicting what you yourself will do
knowing you a little bit I'm sure you were predicting based on where you think you will find the best bets
correct?




*
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14448
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 25th, 2021 at 3:26:06 AM permalink
TB Over has been a good bet the past few years, but the lines have a high over around 56.5. KC defensive backs are sticking to receivers like glue. But the problem on the under is that we could see KC get 35 points or more then Brady gets some garbage scores late,

Watching yesterdays games I thought a fair line was KC -3.5. The guessing lines podcast should be out today or tomorrow, will be interesting to see what they discuss on it.

In my parts there is extra juice to lay 3 points on KC, -118. Think I'm paying that?

Bills are +600 for next year for those of you who like to shop early.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11469
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 25th, 2021 at 5:21:56 AM permalink
At 3.5 I love KC. It just seems like their offense is 'different' than all the other teams in the league. KC 38 TB 27 So KC and over. My bets on things like this tend to be correct 49% of the time or so.

I will say this. I had one 'super best bet' yesterday, and it was on Josh Allen rushing over (LOL... I can't remember the number, but I think it was 42.5?) and he had 80 or so.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7068
Joined: May 8, 2015
January 25th, 2021 at 5:34:36 AM permalink
.......................

this is one thing outside of the stats which might be a factor
the Bucs have faced only 1 highly mobile QB the entire season including the playoffs
that was Mahomes one time and they lost
they're not used to playing against quick and deceptive QBs who can scamper
they're likely to have a lot of trouble with Mahomes


*
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 25th, 2021 at 5:42:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

At 3.5 I love KC. It just seems like their offense is 'different' than all the other teams in the league. KC 38 TB 27 So KC and over. My bets on things like this tend to be correct 49% of the time or so.



The line on KC has shifted to -3 -120/-125.

Looks like most places have moved the over/under to 56.5.

SOOPOO, will you bet the over 56.5 against me at even money? Let's go double or nothing on the Olympics bet?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2459
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
January 25th, 2021 at 6:51:20 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I enjoyed your post quite a bit Tom, predicting what you yourself will do
knowing you a little bit I'm sure you were predicting based on where you think you will find the best bets
correct?



I only bet in Las Vegas, and based look ahead lines and opening lines, it seems that they will shade their numbers toward Kansas City. Which means I will bet Tampa.

I have a premonition that KC wins and covers. I like to say that I don't let that effect my bets too much, yet sometimes I do find myself betting slightly different than the numbers would indicate.

Sagarin says it should be KC -2: http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm
Can't really use those powerratings for anything more than a curiosity. I do like seeing the Wiz's simple model comes close to Sagarin's advanced, super-computer formula. Main difference is Sagarin uses strength of schedule and gives less value to blowout wins.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11469
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 25th, 2021 at 7:14:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The line on KC has shifted to -3 -120/-125.

Looks like most places have moved the over/under to 56.5.

SOOPOO, will you bet the over 56.5 against me at even money? Let's go double or nothing on the Olympics bet?



Sure. But only if you remind me what we bet on the Olympics!
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 247
  • Posts: 17013
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 25th, 2021 at 8:56:05 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

At 3.5 I love KC. It just seems like their offense is 'different' than all the other teams in the league. KC 38 TB 27 So KC and over. My bets on things like this tend to be correct 49% of the time or so.

I will say this. I had one 'super best bet' yesterday, and it was on Josh Allen rushing over (LOL... I can't remember the number, but I think it was 42.5?) and he had 80 or so.



I thought about that every time he took off. I'd have guessed he was closer to 100.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 25th, 2021 at 9:00:12 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Sure. But only if you remind me what we bet on the Olympics!



You bet the 2020 Olympics would be postponed. I believe I owe you $25.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11469
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 25th, 2021 at 9:27:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You bet the 2020 Olympics would be postponed. I believe I owe you $25.



Great! I do remember now. Over 56.5 you owe me $50. Under 56.5 we are all square. After the Super Bowl KEWLJ will owe me something. And DRich already owes me something! I need the vaccine so I can come out to Vegas to collect my winnings!
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
January 25th, 2021 at 9:32:38 AM permalink
For games like the SB, I like to add a bonus where the winner gets paid $100 for each point over the spread. This keeps the game interesting until the end even if it’s a blowout

For example, let’s say I bet (with my friend) $1,000 on Tampa +3 and they win 28 - 24. That would mean I win $1000 plus $700 since they covered by 7.

Is the bonus fair or am I at a disadvantage since Tampa is predicted to score less points?
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 4768
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
January 25th, 2021 at 1:54:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

For games like the SB, I like to add a bonus where the winner gets paid $100 for each point over the spread. This keeps the game interesting until the end even if it’s a blowout

For example, let’s say I bet (with my friend) $1,000 on Tampa +3 and they win 28 - 24. That would mean I win $1000 plus $700 since they covered by 7.

Is the bonus fair or am I at a disadvantage since Tampa is predicted to score less points?



Great question. Hope the Wiz weighs in. I’ve always envisioned the scoring distribution as some bell curve centered on the spread number with a variance that fits somewhere between the pleaser and teaser house edge. But I’ve never looked at the data.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
January 25th, 2021 at 2:12:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

After the Super Bowl KEWLJ will owe me something.



Yeah, it is not looking good for my No superbowl prediction. I am willing to concede. How do I go about paying?
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12638
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
January 25th, 2021 at 2:48:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Great! I do remember now. Over 56.5 you owe me $50. Under 56.5 we are all square. After the Super Bowl KEWLJ will owe me something. And DRich already owes me something! I need the vaccine so I can come out to Vegas to collect my winnings!



I believe that I owe you $20 but I have no idea what the bet was. Seeing as I am poor and unemployed we may have to work out a payment plan :) 🙂
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14448
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
January 26th, 2021 at 9:38:15 AM permalink
Congrats to Wiz on his presumptive consulting job with Volvo marketing!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11469
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 26th, 2021 at 11:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Yeah, it is not looking good for my No superbowl prediction. I am willing to concede. How do I go about paying?



I hope you can hand me the $$ when I come to Vegas. I kind of like the idea of lunch with you, DRich and the Wiz with all 3 of you paying up simultaneously! If speedycrap is in town that could be 4 collections!
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 26th, 2021 at 11:18:48 AM permalink
Apparently, someone has $600,000 coming to him at SouthPoint if the Bucs win the Super Bowl:

https://nypost.com/2020/08/25/betting-nfl-futures-harder-than-ever-with-no-preseason/

Quote:

“The fact that there’s no NFL preseason — and the NBA and NHL playoffs are front and center — has impacted football betting,” said Vinny Magliulo, a longtime Las Vegas bookmaker. “But I think you will see an uptick soon. Once we get to the first weekend, they will be there betting with both fists, and I think we will see a big spike on futures.”

It was mid-March when Brady signed with Tampa Bay. About two weeks prior, Magliulo said, a bettor showed up at the South Point sportsbook to wager $10,000 on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 60/1. Those odds have dropped to 10/1. The last five months have seen no other major moves on the futures board.



What would you guys do here? This opens up a world of possibilities. An obvious way to lock up profits (if you were inclined AND Wizard would hate this) is to simply take the Chiefs on the ML for some amount such that you profit either way.

Even prior to that, with the signing of Brady and the movement to +1000, you probably could have easily sold a stake in that +6000 ticket such that you could free roll the thing and still have the other person feeling like they got value.

But, let's pretend that we know that didn't happen. You've got the potentially golden ticket, what would you do?

(Also ignore for the purposes of the question that if this guy is running around tossing 10k on SB futures, 600k probably doesn't matter much to him)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 4768
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
January 26th, 2021 at 11:28:52 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Apparently, someone has $600,000 coming to him at SouthPoint if the Bucs win the Super Bowl:

https://nypost.com/2020/08/25/betting-nfl-futures-harder-than-ever-with-no-preseason/



What would you guys do here? This opens up a world of possibilities. An obvious way to lock up profits (if you were inclined AND Wizard would hate this) is to simply take the Chiefs on the ML for some amount such that you profit either way.

Even prior to that, with the signing of Brady and the movement to +1000, you probably could have easily sold a stake in that +6000 ticket such that you could free roll the thing and still have the other person feeling like they got value.

But, let's pretend that we know that didn't happen. You've got the potentially golden ticket, what would you do?

(Also ignore for the purposes of the question that if this guy is running around tossing 10k on SB futures, 600k probably doesn't matter much to him)



I recall reading this is the same guy that made $45k on Brady to Bucs and made almost $300k on Lamar winning MVP last year.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 247
  • Posts: 17013
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
Mission146
January 26th, 2021 at 11:35:49 AM permalink
I'm very interested in what I assume will be extremely creative alternatives.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 6682
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
January 29th, 2021 at 9:11:55 AM permalink
William Hill props as of Thursday 11 AM Pacific. Note that there are no bets like "how long will the national anthem last," "what will the first song of the halftime show be," or, "what color liquid will be dumped on the winning head coach," although you can bet on who will be the MVP.

Yes on Safety is +525
Yes on Overtime is +575
Last Score of Game is FG/Safety is +135
Successful Onside Kick is 10-1
You can also get 30-1 odds that a particular team's first score will be a safety

Here's one I like:
+135 that the last play of the game will not be a QB keep of some sort (including taking a knee)

Update: Bovada props
Game
TD/Field Goal-specific
Specials (including things like the national anthem)
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Jan 29, 2021
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12638
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
Mission146
January 29th, 2021 at 9:19:16 AM permalink
For me that is a significant sum so I would probably put $250k on chiefs moneyline to lock up a $200k win if the Chiefs win the game and $350k if Bucs win.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 29th, 2021 at 10:38:12 AM permalink
Here are some of the William Hill props and what my NFL prop bet calculator makes the fair line. Usual warning that I haven't updated the calculator with new data in several years.

Prop Yes No Fair
Team to score first wins -160 140 -154
Team to score last wins -190 170 -170
First score TD -150 130 -239
Last score of first half is a TD 100 -120 117
Last score TD -155 135 -249
Under 12.5 kickoffs -115 -105 ?
Total TDs under 6.5 140 -160 ?
Field goals under 3.5 -125 105 -128
FG in first qtr -140 120 106
FG in second qtr -280 240 -247
FG in third qtr -135 115 100
FG in fourth qtr -175 155 -147
First downs under 48.5 -120 100 ?
Two-point conversion 190 -220 487
Total punts under 6.5 -140 120 ?
Largest lead under 14.5 -110 -110 125
Both teams have lead in first half -125 105 128
Both teams have lead in second half -140 120 169
Scoreless quarter 400 -500 653
Both teams score in every quarter 370 -450 ?
Three consecutive scores -175 155 -164
Four consecutive scores 280 -340 252
Game tied after 0-0 -150 130 111
3-point margin of victory 350 -430 676
7-point margin of victory 450 -600 784
Total points odd -125 105 -116
Safety 525 -750 1604
Overtime 575 -850 1885
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Keeneone
Keeneone
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
January 29th, 2021 at 11:01:55 AM permalink
2020 NFL scoring was highest for a season:
https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-finishes-as-highest-scoring-season-in-nfl-history

Drop in offensive holding calls (I refer to them as "drive killers") likely one reason for increased scoring.
Defensive pass interference rise may be another.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/penalties.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/penalties.htm
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11469
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 29th, 2021 at 3:41:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are some of the William Hill props and what my NFL prop bet calculator makes the fair line. Usual warning that I haven't updated the calculator with new data in several years.

Prop Yes No Fair
Team to score first wins -160 140 -154
Team to score last wins -190 170 -170
First score TD -150 130 -239
Last score of first half is a TD 100 -120 117
Last score TD -155 135 -249
Under 12.5 kickoffs -115 -105 ?
Total TDs under 6.5 140 -160 ?
Field goals under 3.5 -125 105 -128
FG in first qtr -140 120 106
FG in second qtr -280 240 -247
FG in third qtr -135 115 100
FG in fourth qtr -175 155 -147
First downs under 48.5 -120 100 ?
Two-point conversion 190 -220 487
Total punts under 6.5 -140 120 ?
Largest lead under 14.5 -110 -110 125
Both teams have lead in first half -125 105 128
Both teams have lead in second half -140 120 169
Scoreless quarter 400 -500 653
Both teams score in every quarter 370 -450 ?
Three consecutive scores -175 155 -164
Four consecutive scores 280 -340 252
Game tied after 0-0 -150 130 111
3-point margin of victory 350 -430 676
7-point margin of victory 450 -600 784
Total points odd -125 105 -116
Safety 525 -750 1604
Overtime 575 -850 1885



I love FGs under 3.5
I love 'no' on scoreless quarter
And in keeping with the man who lists these.... I love no safety!
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12638
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
January 29th, 2021 at 3:51:05 PM permalink
BetMGM had a $2.3 million dollar bet on the Bucs today +3.5 -115.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
unJonKeeneone
January 29th, 2021 at 6:59:59 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

2020 NFL scoring was highest for a season:
https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-finishes-as-highest-scoring-season-in-nfl-history



Thanks for the article! It inspired me to do a similar one of my own: NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020.

I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11469
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 29th, 2021 at 8:04:41 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks for the article! It inspired me to do a similar one of my own: NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020.

I welcome all comments.

. The increase this year is not an aberration in my opinion. It is a direct result of the league instructing referees to not call offensive holding to nearly the degree it did in the past.
I also think, but less strongly, that lack of crowd noise helped road team offenses, but not as much as the refereeing changes.
I also think the increased number of defensive ‘helmet to helmet’ fouls helped increase offense.
Given all that, I feel my over 56.5 has a 50% chance of winning.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 169
  • Posts: 22588
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
January 30th, 2021 at 5:56:05 AM permalink
If you're going to be in Vegas around Super Bowl time, or you're looking for a good reason to come. shoot me a PM.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2459
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
January 30th, 2021 at 9:00:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

What would you guys do here? This opens up a world of possibilities. An obvious way to lock up profits (if you were inclined AND Wizard would hate this) is to simply take the Chiefs on the ML for some amount such that you profit either way.



At that amount of money, I would have to bet the other side. I've even been betting against them in the earlier rounds, so I might already be down $50,000 to 100,000. But lets not go there, because it's not as fun. I also don't want to give up $10,000 to $15,000 in value that comes with just betting the Chiefs moneyline at market value.

I would spend this week traveling around, trying to find whatever +EV bets I could that correlate the strongest with a Chiefs win: alternate spreads, halves, quarters, Mahomes TDs, etc. It is possible the Tampa bet loses, and KC goes under 6 every quarter, only wins one quarter, doesn't cover any of the spread bets and Mahomes doesn't throw a single TD. It's also possible the Tampa bet wins, KC team totals all go over, and they cover all the +2.5 and 10.5s, etc.

Depending on how much I can bet during the week, Sunday morning I would bet the Chiefs money line, trying for around $300,000 total on the other side. But if there is enough value, up to $500,000 on KC.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2459
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
January 30th, 2021 at 10:08:47 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks for the article! It inspired me to do a similar one of my own: NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020.

I welcome all comments.



Good stuff. For betting, median can as important as the mean, any thought of looking into that?
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2459
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
January 30th, 2021 at 10:12:38 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

BetMGM had a $2.3 million dollar bet on the Bucs today +3.5 -115.



Signed up with them last night. Looks like they could me my new favorite account. Quickly had everything I deposited in action. Then more through at the kiosk. Most of the best numbers are gone. Still have Bucs +4 -120 and +6.5 - 165. Both of those are better than the 3.5 which has to be the best in Las Vegas. Probably not taking million dollar bets on props, though.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 30th, 2021 at 10:56:56 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Good stuff. For betting, median can as important as the mean, any thought of looking into that?



Good point. I have that for my old data only and it would be a pain to get at.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1318
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
January 30th, 2021 at 8:52:54 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I hope you can hand me the $$ when I come to Vegas. I kind of like the idea of lunch with you, DRich and the Wiz with all 3 of you paying up simultaneously! If speedycrap is in town that could be 4 collections!

If I go to Vegas and come home, It will cost me $2K for a quarantine.
Wizard, I will offer you KC -4 even money for US$30????
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 30th, 2021 at 9:41:02 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Wizard, I will offer you KC -4 even money for US$30????



No thanks. I can get KC -3 -120 anywhere, which is a much better bet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1318
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
January 30th, 2021 at 10:35:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

No thanks. I can get KC -3 -120 anywhere, which is a much better bet.

I am sorry. I meant I would take KC -4 even. You will have TB _4 even. ???
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2459
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
Thanked by
unJonKeeneone
January 31st, 2021 at 12:33:51 PM permalink
Since this is the week I am starting at screens looking at all the numbers, I may as well use the time to give my review of Las Vegas sports apps, as well as some of the stronger Super Bowl numbers they've been offering:

Stations:
One of my favorites just because of the way they shade their lines. Probably the place I most often find an extra half-point. Cash back in points is 0.1% (0.3% on parlays) which is nice. Gave my $50 when I signed up, and at one time it was $100. The app itself is pretty basic, which I like. Brady under 2.5 TDs - 150, KC 1h under 14.5, 1q under 10 +115, 4q under 16.5, TB +6.5 -155

Boyd:
Finding a lot of bugs since they went to a new format, sometimes kicks me out and sometimes takes a few tries to even open it. Don’t like the presentation, makes it hard to find the numbers. I think 0.05% cash back; also got a $50 resort credit, which I think was later changed to a hard $50. Only place I have available that is good for college basketball 1h parlays, so I have been using it for that, but nothing else. If they don’t have good numbers on baseball props, I might be mostly done with this one. They did lock my account one time after I bet a bad number, I planned to just give them a hard time, by withdrawing small amounts at a time. But then after a few months, it worked again. I’ll give them credit for that. KC scoreless quarter -145

William Hill:
They backed me off very quickly, low limits and could only bet a number one time. Then they locked my account. If I could bet with them, I would probably use them as much as anyone, but I can’t. They do advertise “cash back, win or lose” and I got $50 when I signed up.

Westgate:
Biggest betting menu, and lower vig than most anywhere else. That makes it my favorite along with Stations. Unlike Stations and Boyd, they'll take a stand and leave a number up even after it's been hit for a couple max bets. I respect management for doing that. Can earn restaurant and hotel comps, but no cash. Brady 3q TD +160, Brady no 2 TDs in any quarter -200, Chiefs rushing TD -175, Watkins no TD -300, Kelce no 1h TD -200, Godwin under 5.5 receptions +105, Fournette under 3.5 +110. Those were from last night and this morning. Won't list any I made from Thursday or Friday, because they're probably gone.

Southpoint:
I did like it. Similar to Westgate, just a little bit not as good. Sometime around the coronavirus shutdown, they lowered my limit to $0.00. I think this might just be a tech issue and I need to go there and see what’s up. Also, Rampart and Southpoint are the sportsbook, but can only post up / cash out at the place you signed up, which is kind of weird.

Circa:
Another one similar to Wesgate. When looking at their numbers, I often think they run the sportsbook the very best way possible. Which isn’t good for me, because it makes it a little bit harder to find value. Open 24-hours which is cool. They said they would be giving points / comps, but I didn’t have any when I checked my card at their kiosk. If they do, sports is separate from the machine / table play. Fournette TD +145, Chiefs to punt before score +100.

Golden Nugget:
Very small betting menu and high vig. I can understand the benefit to that from a business position, but makes it pretty worthless to me. I did win nicely the one year they offered parlay cards on the app. Just waiting until after the Super Bowl to cash out; it’s been a full week since the matchup was set and they still don’t have any props up.

BetMGM:
Just started with them. Look promising. They are the first one in Las Vegas to copy FanDeul and DraftKings “odds boosters”, or whatever they call it, which is why I opened an account. Never found too much whenever I visited an MGM casino, but it does look like they are slow to move on some numbers and are targeting tourists, which could mean good things. The literature they have says bets on the app earns rewards. I bet both Chiefs and Bucs, a lot heavier on KC. Only one I will comment on is TB +4 -120

Caesars:
Never used it.

Wynn and TI:
Never deposited. These ones are independent, so might have something good. Wynn looks fairly similar to Stations and seem to shade their numbers the same way. Think I’ll put my GN money in one of these, then I’ll be able to comment from experience. Wynn has Mahomes over 19.5 rush yards -105, but since I can't bet them, I'm not looking very hard
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 210
  • Posts: 11060
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
February 3rd, 2021 at 3:33:57 PM permalink
As I prepare to give my SB bets to Mike, I’ve hit a snag...


I'm not a sports person AT ALL. I used to watch the SuperBowl more for the commercials than the game.

Then, after Mike talked about his Bridge Jumpers bet a few years ago, I started betting on the 'yes' for some bets that I knew Mike took the 'no', and Mike took my action for a number in the middle, using William Hill's or Westgate's prop sheets. Now I watch for the commercials AND the props I have action on. 😁

FYI: In the past, I've bet on the Missed Extra Point, Safety, Overtime, Scoreless Qtr, Successful 2pt Conv, and Interception run for a TD, always taking the Yes on all of them.

My problem is the Interception -> TD. WH has it, but I couldn't find it at WG. Ditto for last year.

However, I notice that WG has Special Team or Defense TD. I see that WH has it, as well as the Int -> TD. I started to scratch my head to figure out the difference. (I also checked Circa’s sheets. They don’t have either, nor the Missed Extra Point.)

So please confim my thoughts:

An interception is a pass that is caught by the defense. As such, an Int -> TD is a Defensive TD, therefore one of the ways the Special Team or Defense TD would win. Correct?

Therefore, a mere fumble picked up by the defense and run for a TD, isn't an interception but counts as a Defense TD.

And Special Teams? That's a kickoff or punt team, right? Are there others? I think not. Therefore the Special Team TD is a kick (onside?) that is somehow caught or picked up by the kicking team and run all the way.

Am I right?
Am I missing anything?

Thanks.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
February 3rd, 2021 at 3:59:38 PM permalink
All that sounds right to me. If there is any dispute on a bet, I think we could use Mission to mediate as he seems to know the fine points of football quite well.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1318
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
February 3rd, 2021 at 4:38:12 PM permalink
I am still looking for someone to take my bet. I will take KC -4 even money for US$30.
Keeneone
Keeneone
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
February 3rd, 2021 at 4:40:50 PM permalink
Special team units are involved in kicking plays:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_positions#Special_teams
From Wikipedia:
Special teams can score a touchdown on a kickoff or punt return, or on a return after a missed or blocked field goal attempt or blocked punt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touchdown
Last edited by: Keeneone on Feb 3, 2021
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11469
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
February 3rd, 2021 at 4:58:26 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Special team units are involved in kicking plays:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_positions#:~:text=Special%20teams%20are%20units%20that,unique%20to%20the%20kicking%20game.
From Wikipedia:
Special teams can score a touchdown on a kickoff or punt return, or on a return after a missed or blocked field goal attempt or blocked punt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touchdown



One subtlety. Your punt unit is DEFINITELY a ‘special team.’ HOWEVER, if your punter does not punt and runs it in for a touchdown I am pretty sure (but not 100%) that does NOT count as a special team TD.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 4768
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
February 3rd, 2021 at 5:19:49 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I am still looking for someone to take my bet. I will take KC -4 even money for US$30.



I’ll take they other side of it. Please confirm. Happy to escrow with someone or let it stand on honor to pay after game. Please confirm.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 210
  • Posts: 11060
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
February 3rd, 2021 at 5:37:55 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Special team units are involved in kicking plays:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_positions#:~:text=Special%20teams%20are%20units%20that,unique%20to%20the%20kicking%20game....

This link works better, and I think it's what you intended:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_positions#Special_teams

---

Thanks for all the replies. Those, and the Wikipedia entry, really helps.

I was hung up on the 'teams' aspect, as if an entire 11 man squad is used just for that purpose, and then I didn't know if it was offense or defense. As I interpret it, it's any time there's a kicking play. That's a lot easier to understand.

Quote: SOOPOO

One subtlety. Your punt unit is DEFINITELY a ‘special team.’ HOWEVER, if your punter does not punt and runs it in for a touchdown I am pretty sure (but not 100%) that does NOT count as a special team TD.

I'll keep that in mind. Plus that follows my logic above.


For the record, I like these bets because they're simple yes/no things with long-shot potential, and can be resolved by reading the box score and/or scoring play summary.


Mike, you'll get my list in a day or two.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27049
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
February 3rd, 2021 at 5:41:22 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Mike, you'll get my list in a day or two.



Okay.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1318
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
February 3rd, 2021 at 6:45:11 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I’ll take they other side of it. Please confirm. Happy to escrow with someone or let it stand on honor to pay after game. Please confirm.

Dear Wizard,it is a confirmed bet. I have KC -4 even money. You have TB. US$30.

[edit by Oncedear just to fix tag]
Last edited by: OnceDear on Feb 6, 2021
  • Jump to: